How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[kevinkin]

Interesting little article that is right down our alley:

https://www.airforcetimes.com/news/your-air-force/2022/12/03/military-officials-look-to-ukraine-war-for-new-lessons-in-training/

Only 15 or so count as large joint force exercises. Military officials argued it’s important to make the most of that time in person, but that countries should also pursue compatible technology so forces can train together in the digital realm.

“I would like to see a high degree of simulator interoperability between allies and partners, built on code,” said Lt. Gen. Michael Claesson, Sweden’s chief of joint operations.

In some cases, that will mean lowering the security and design standards for combat systems to level the playing field for more countries, he said.

The objectives of those wargames and training exercises are evolving, too.

Meyeraan said that in the last two years, allied forces have acknowledged that training needs to “focus on a real-world threat”  (are you listening RAND?) to better understand how a conflict might unfold.

“We have been using terms like ‘hybrid warfare,’” Claesson said. “We’ve tended to forget that ‘hybrid’ also contains aspects like weapons of mass destruction, aspects of conventional war, together with the asymmetric parts in the information environment, etc. We are watching in Ukraine a material war that we haven’t probably seen since the First World War.”

“Current events would indicate that Russia may be more of a concern than we thought,” he said. “There’s also the other side of that coin that says, ‘It’s going to be a long time before we have to worry about them doing anything.’”

It's the last quote that keeps the gravy train moving. Uncertainty about a possible future threat disrupts our ability to avoid it or to mitigate its negative impact, and thus results in anxiety - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4276319/

[Bulletpoint]

2 hours ago, Huba said:

They will be launching these strikes from Vladivostok very soon  But seaborne drones are being built too I hear, so it won't  help! 
Here's another video, guessing by the sound it might've been something jet powered?

 

 

Maybe "just" a Russian plane crashing as it came in to land? Wouldn't be the first time.

[Bulletpoint]

About the story about Russia not launching Iranian drones because of frost, didn't they stop using them while Ukraine was generally not that cold yet?

Even now, during the daytime, it is just below freezing, so not that cold, and not sure if that would really stop them using those drones. I'm thinking they just ran out.

[kevinkin]

23 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Maybe "just" a Russian plane crashing as it came in to land? Wouldn't be the first time.

Hitting the news wires now:

https://theaviationist.com/2022/12/05/explosion-hits-engels-2-airbase-russia-reportedly-damaging-at-least-two-tu-95-bombers/

[Zeleban]

44 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Hitting the news wires now:

https://theaviationist.com/2022/12/05/explosion-hits-engels-2-airbase-russia-reportedly-damaging-at-least-two-tu-95-bombers/

It looks like the sound of a turbojet engine, not a turboprop (as on the Tu-95). The ground approach speed is too high for such a large aircraft as the Tu-95. Most likely a rocket.

[Zeleban]

 

[Haiduk]

First wave of attack is finished. Next one is coming. From Kyiv water reservoir (NE) was herad several fast explosions, but its weren't similar to recently heard AD work sound or missile hits. Something like several cluster munitions fast sounds or like AA-guns work (Gepard?). Social media reported about AD work in Kyiv oblast. Several hits in Odesa oblast and Mykolaiv oblast   

Again likely incident with UKR S-300 missile - the part has fell on Moldova territory, no casualties and destructions

Edited December 5, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

VERY lucky UKR battalion of S-300 under attack of two Lancets. No direct hits. Probably because of strong wind operator couldn't keep the course at the last moment

 

 

[Kinophile]

5 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

VERY lucky UKR battalion of S-300 under attack of two Lancets. No direct hits. Probably because of strong wind operator couldn't keep the course at the last moment

 

 

Jesus. 

Spare knickers time! 

 

[Haiduk]

5 hours ago, Huba said:

They will be launching these strikes from Vladivostok very soon  But seaborne drones are being built too I hear, so it won't  help! 
Here's another video, guessing by the sound it might've been something jet powered?

 

 

We hear maximum level of sound at approx 0:18 and on 0:42 we see the flash. So, if 6200 m the object overcame for 24 seconds, that it speed is about 260 m/s  (936 km/h). Some other sources counted from first appearing of the sound to the flash and got 230 m/s  (830 km/h).

Jet loitering munition? Cruise missile ? (Korshun-2, for example), Hrim-2 in some "flat trajectory" mode? 

[Huba]

Ground attack Neptune derivative perhaps? It would fit the flight profile at least, and a simplified version with larger fuel tank, no radar etc could travel that far probably. Impossible to say at this point, let's hope that there's more being readied.

[Haiduk]

14 minutes ago, Huba said:

Ground attack Neptune derivative perhaps? It would fit the flight profile at least, and a simplified version with larger fuel tank, no radar etc could travel that far probably. Impossible to say at this point, let's hope that there's more being readied.

We had Korshun-2 project (ground attack cruise missile), before a war, but there were no any signs this project had any moves to "metal" phase. And it claimed range was 300 km

Edited December 5, 2022 by Haiduk

[kevinkin]

3 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

Maybe "just" a Russian plane crashing as it came in to land? Wouldn't be the first time.

Some more:

https://dnyuz.com/2022/12/05/explosion-at-nuclear-airbase-just-150-miles-from-moscow-opens-stunning-new-phase-of-war/

Dyagilevo base near Ryazan

Edited December 5, 2022 by kevinkin

[Battlefront.com]

Here's a tidbit that might mean something or might mean nothing.  Tula Russia is printing 600,000 food ration cards:

https://poland.postsen.com/world/156200/Russia-Food-stamps-produced-in-Tula-Authorities-Updating-documents.html

Steve

[kevinkin]

The cause of the two explosions has not been confirmed.

Baza, a Russian media outlet with sources in the security services, reported that the Russian airfield at Engels was attacked by a loitering munition, a type of aerial weapon system, which targeted the airbase’s runway. Astra, another independent Russian media outlet, claimed two nuclear-capable Tu-95 bombers were damaged in the explosion. Neither indicated a source for their information.

[danfrodo]

Wow, fun day for Putin.  Two airbase strikes deep within Russia, and maybe one at a power plant.  And food rationing?  

Someone on the forum the other day had the astute observation that once Lavrov said Ukrainian electrical grid was a legitimate military target, he was also making RU grid a legitimate target.  I sure hope we see much of RU getting power knocked out.

[BlackMoria]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

This is likely the first real war of the 21st century colliding with the last war of the 20th. A whole lot is up in the air. Which kind of makes me wonder if every major war isn’t a collision of the old and new - a deadly theatrical demonstration of the evolution of human civilization every time.  Of course if war is an evolutionary process, it begs the question - what are we evolving into?

I see the writing on the wall being of long distance warfare using drones.  Soon everyone and their dog will have drones like the one the Ukrainians are nearly development of with a sizeable warhead and 1000 km range. It is a certainty at this point.  

So, warfare will be launching swarms of these drones at another countries military infrastructure and critical civilian infrastructure.  We see that playing out right now - Russia is missiling Ukraine are a regular basis and Ukraine is showing they are getting the tech to do the same in response.  That will up in tempo if Russia gets any more capability in that regard and Ukraine is soon going to demonstrate that "if that is how the game is going to be played, we will do it better".

And don't think for a moment that militaries everywhere are not looking on with interest and taking mountains of notes.

Besides drone tech, the next surge needs to be in some way to counter drone swarms of poor man cruise missiles with 1000km+ range.  I don't have an answer to that but that is where this is headed so better start locking up the think tank people in rooms and have semi trucks of energy drinks outside those rooms because we need to figure this out... like yesterday.

[dan/california]

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Nothing dumbass about those questions.  In fact the mainstream western analysis by people getting paid a lot of money relied a lot on metrics that have been rendered somewhat strained in this war.  I have spent most of this war trying to figure out what the hell is going on because after years of western military programming the seemingly impossible happened.

The only way I can see for Russia to freeze this conflict or reverse its course is a failure in western resolve. At what is starting to look like approaching a quarter million casualties and billions of dollars in losses, materiel and economic, one has to ask “how much is Ukraine really worth to Russia?” What it means to us is a shoring up of the western global order and our places in it, which is worth a lot.

But western attention spans are only slightly better than teenage lust.  We see cracks and rumbles throughout.  Insular and nationalistic leaning political parties are less interested in “foreign border disputes”.  A steady stream of pro-Russian lies and spins from some - in some circles - political darlings is not helping,  All in the middle of a recession.  If Putin did this whole thing in the MENA we likely would have kept making duck sounds on the diplomatic front and then went back to watching reality tv.  But he decided on demonstrating hard power a little too close to us.

This is likely the first real war of the 21st century colliding with the last war of the 20th. A whole lot is up in the air. Which kind of makes me wonder if every major war isn’t a collision of the old and new - a deadly theatrical demonstration of the evolution of human civilization every time.  Of course if war is an evolutionary process, it begs the question - what are we evolving into?

Outstanding as always, was out of likes.

4 minutes ago, BlackMoria said:

I see the writing on the wall being of long distance warfare using drones.  Soon everyone and their dog will have drones like the one the Ukrainians are nearly development of with a sizeable warhead and 1000 km range. It is a certainty at this point.  

So, warfare will be launching swarms of these drones at another countries military infrastructure and critical civilian infrastructure.  We see that playing out right now - Russia is missiling Ukraine are a regular basis and Ukraine is showing they are getting the tech to do the same in response.  That will up in tempo if Russia gets any more capability in that regard and Ukraine is soon going to demonstrate that "if that is how the game is going to be played, we will do it better".

And don't think for a moment that militaries everywhere are not looking on with interest and taking mountains of notes.

Besides drone tech, the next surge needs to be in some way to counter drone swarms of poor man cruise missiles with 1000km+ range.  I don't have an answer to that but that is where this is headed so better start locking up the think tank people in rooms and have semi trucks of energy drinks outside those rooms because we need to figure this out... like yesterday.

I would argue that actual engineers at place like the Skunkworks are even more important. This is a technical problem, with a technical solution. I suspect the cost to completely revise every air defense system in the Western world is going to be substantial though. I REALLY want to know what the radar return from these low speed drones look like to an AWACS. The balloon mounted radars are going to get a lot more popular too.

[Huba]

17 minutes ago, BlackMoria said:

I see the writing on the wall being of long distance warfare using drones.  Soon everyone and their dog will have drones like the one the Ukrainians are nearly development of with a sizeable warhead and 1000 km range. It is a certainty at this point.  

So, warfare will be launching swarms of these drones at another countries military infrastructure and critical civilian infrastructure.  We see that playing out right now - Russia is missiling Ukraine are a regular basis and Ukraine is showing they are getting the tech to do the same in response.  That will up in tempo if Russia gets any more capability in that regard and Ukraine is soon going to demonstrate that "if that is how the game is going to be played, we will do it better".

And don't think for a moment that militaries everywhere are not looking on with interest and taking mountains of notes.

Besides drone tech, the next surge needs to be in some way to counter drone swarms of poor man cruise missiles with 1000km+ range.  I don't have an answer to that but that is where this is headed so better start locking up the think tank people in rooms and have semi trucks of energy drinks outside those rooms because we need to figure this out... like yesterday.

And again, being an ocean away from any enemies, US is at a huge advantage. 

[riptides]

9 minutes ago, Huba said:

And again, being an ocean away from any enemies, US is at a huge advantage. 

Alaska is but a few island hops away....

[Battlefront.com]

Good article in NY Times about where the Russian economy stands.  As usual, it is a combination of personal stories as well as higher level discussion.  The basic gist of it is the Russian economy hasn't declined as fast and as hard as the West predicted, but much of that might be "smoke and mirrors" that can't continue for much longer.  According to some of the interviews with regular people, it seems they have some sense that things are much worse than they appear.

The article also talks about how there's the long term to consider.  As we've discussed here since the beginning of the war, Russia has to ride out this storm for years and probably decades.  At least as long as a Putin type regime is in power.  So even if Putin can do some really clever things to shore up the economy short term, long term looks bleak.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/05/world/europe/ukraine-war-sanctions-russia-economy.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20221205&instance_id=79337&nl=the-morning&regi_id=77867169&segment_id=115059&te=1&user_id=06eb42ecc9056dd32ea63af0c30707b6

Steve

[Huba]

“We are in a position to support Ukraine, but it’s more the mid and long term,” Bush said. “By creating this capacity ... if this war goes three or four years, we’ll be in a position to just vastly outproduce the Russians all by ourselves ― and if you combine that with our allies, then we’re just dwarfing their capability. They won’t be able to keep up.”

 

[BlackMoria]

4 minutes ago, Huba said:

And again, being an ocean away from any enemies, US is at a huge advantage. 

This drone tech get into the hands of non-state actors like terrorist organizations or any a**holes with a axe to grind.   Imagine ISIS or Al Queda smuggling several of these into a Central America country, the Caribbean islands or Cuba, where security might be a little lax for such things and then launching an attack on the mainland US.

If no one but me as thought of this possibility, there is too few people with an imagination in the world.  I have been thinking of this the past several days - if I was head of Cobra (a comic book terrorist organization) and I had access to this drone tech, what could I do with it?  The ramifications of what I came up with would keep you guys up at night.  And I am not the only smart guy in the room.

Here is your appetizer - cargo container ship loaded up with several hundred of these drones and sit off shore of whatever country and do your terrorist attack.   Sleep well tonight with that little thought of what is possible in the very near future....

[Huba]

9 minutes ago, riptides said:

Alaska is but a few island hops away....

3 minutes ago, BlackMoria said:

This drone tech get into the hands of non-state actors like terrorist organizations or any a**holes with a axe to grind.   Imagine ISIS or Al Queda smuggling several of these into a Central America country, the Caribbean islands or Cuba, where security might be a little lax for such things and then launching an attack on the mainland US.

If no one but me as thought of this possibility, there is too few people with an imagination in the world.  I have been thinking of this the past several days - if I was head of Cobra (a comic book terrorist organization) and I had access to this drone tech, what could I do with it?  The ramifications of what I came up with would keep you guys up at night.  And I am not the only smart guy in the room.

Here is your appetizer - cargo container ship loaded up with several hundred of these drones and sit off shore of whatever country and do your terrorist attack.   Sleep well tonight with that little thought of what is possible in the very near future....

US position is still way more privileged than basically any global/ regional power's at the moment, including Australia. Thinking about the terrorist threat - yes, the possibilities are endless, but it affects other countries similarly, while US at least is distanced from the potential state-actor enemies. One could very much imagine the XXIst century equivalent of Cuban Missile Crisis being about Chinese drones in Venezuela or something along these lines...

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

About the story about Russia not launching Iranian drones because of frost, didn't they stop using them while Ukraine was generally not that cold yet?

Even now, during the daytime, it is just below freezing, so not that cold, and not sure if that would really stop them using those drones. I'm thinking they just ran out.

These drones fly high.  The temperatures at that altitude will be significantly colder than on the ground.  More importantly, freezing isn't the standard to go by.  Cold is.  The plastics have to be formulated for the temperatures they are operating in.  If the operating temperature is too cold or too warm, the plastic becomes brittle.  Cold and warm are defined by the plastic's characteristics, not an arbitrary number such as freezing.

Steve