How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I guess my point is more succinctly expressed as the RA may regain or regenerate tactical capability - I sincerely doubt it will be of a higher quality, but it is theoretically possible.  

What the RA is incapable of is the generation operational capability that is competitive with the UA.  It will also be nowhere near the western support capabilities being provided directly to the UA. It is an unwinnable equation that time makes worse not better.

Totally agree.  Your point was understood, just making a small allowance for LLF's concerns having some merit.  Not enough to matter, though

Steve

[Beleg85]

6 hours ago, _Morpheus_ said:

Most of the old (30+) population in Belarus support russia, not Ukraine. Ok, not really correct: `they are `brothers` with russia but don't want to die for russia` because most of the russian casualties from the North were moved to Belarus. Most of the population who was against the lukashenko, left the country already.

...which created even more dangerous situation for Lukashenko, as now he has growing, armed and vigorous opposition abroad he has no control of. And level of real support among population that left is debatable; probably much more than 50% voted for anti-Russian Tsichanouska; her real score could be even as high as 70%+. They all moved out?

[Battlefront.com]

An article from Politico about the US and Europe having to re-imagine how to fight a protracted war:

Quote

“High-end conflict consumes a lot of munitions and a lot of weaponry,” Mike McCord, the Pentagon’s top budget official, said in an interview. “We are also looking at the supply chain limitations. We haven’t got this figured out just yet.”

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/12/04/pentagon-industry-struggle-to-arm-ukraine-00072125

Here's one of the "fun" things about the pro-Putin wing of the US Republican party... people like Macgregor bang on and on and on and on about how arming Ukraine means we're vulnerable to China.  Therefore, we shouldn't arm Ukraine.  Putting aside the underpinnings of why this group holds such a view, this position is dumb.  What they are in fact saying is they would rather us go to war with China unprepared, run out of munitions and equipment, then learn now to fight a protracted conflict.  Providing the Chinese give us the opportunity.

In the world of sanity and support for conservative principles, if one wants to be ready to tackle China at some future time, then it makes sense to figure it out now under real combat conditions against the Russians.  Hitler sure learned a lot by invading Czechoslovakia and Poland without sacrificing Germany's ability to conquer the West.

I for one have faith that the US military industrial complex can figure all this stuff out.  Whether Congress will fund whatever solutions they come up with, on the other hand, is an entirely different story. 

Steve

[dan/california]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Looks like Zelensky didn't need to complain about the $60 price point the EU set as the price cap for Russian oil.  According to the Russians, they aren't going to sell oil at that price to anybody:

https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-to-ban-oil-sales-under-price-cap-kremlin-says/

If Russia sticks to this pledge, they are going to find their coffers a bit bare pretty soon.  In other news, yesterday? OPEC agreed to maintain current output levels.

Steve

Even the Arabs seem to have decided the Russians are losing and, that they might be dealing with Biden for a while.

13 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I guess my point is more succinctly expressed as the RA may regain or regenerate tactical capability - I sincerely doubt it will be of a higher quality, but it is theoretically possible.  

What the RA is incapable of is the generation operational capability that is competitive with the UA.  It will also be nowhere near the western support capabilities being provided directly to the UA. It is an unwinnable equation that time makes worse not better.

In reality the RA will likely generate “more poorer” quality tactical capability that will further strain their already stressed operational system effectively making matters worse.

Absolutely agree on the UA winter offensive.  As we discussed, winter will likely favour the UA and seriously stress the RA - it is likely the better time to strike.  

 Ukrainian farmers and their tractors are already a meme. I wonder if they could do a more organized version of the John Deere brigade to keep stuff moving through the mud and snow? It might be that last piece to dislocate the Russians completely.

[LongLeftFlank]

Great stuff gents, many thanks as always. 

I have been fortunate to find plenty of spaces where I am by far the smartest guy in the room, so it's great to be not even close in this one.

That won't stop me from asking dumbass questions, peeking under rocks and being devils' advocate though; it's a great way to learn.

[Blazing 88's]

AbramsX prototype, electric powered. It's a good Infographic video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LKOEdX4VU-I

Edited December 5, 2022 by Blazing 88's

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

An article from Politico about the US and Europe having to re-imagine how to fight a protracted war:

Here's one of the "fun" things about the pro-Putin wing of the US Republican party... people like Macgregor bang on and on and on and on about how arming Ukraine means we're vulnerable to China.  Therefore, we shouldn't arm Ukraine.  Putting aside the underpinnings of why this group holds such a view, this position is dumb.  What they are in fact saying is they would rather us go to war with China unprepared, run out of munitions and equipment, then learn now to fight a protracted conflict.  Providing the Chinese give us the opportunity.

In the world of sanity and support for conservative principles, if one wants to be ready to tackle China at some future time, then it makes sense to figure it out now under real combat conditions against the Russians.  Hitler sure learned a lot by invading Czechoslovakia and Poland without sacrificing Germany's ability to conquer the West.

I for one have faith that the US military industrial complex can figure all this stuff out.  Whether Congress will fund whatever solutions they come up with, on the other hand, is an entirely different story. 

Steve

And in what kind of bizarro world do we think we'll be fighting china on land, needing massive artillery supplies and the like, which is most of what we are providing to UKR?  If china wanted to conquer Taiwan it's really kinda ludicrous to think it would be like Normandy invasion.  It would naval/air/missiles.  A contested land invasion is nonsense, as that could only occur once Taiwan was already defeated.

So the only weaknesses we get by supplying UKR is in anti-missile, anti-air assets.  We're not sending our navy, nor our air assets. 

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

And in what kind of bizarro world do we think we'll be fighting china on land, needing massive artillery supplies and the like, which is most of what we are providing to UKR?  If china wanted to conquer Taiwan it's really kinda ludicrous to think it would be like Normandy invasion.  It would naval/air/missiles.  A contested land invasion is nonsense, as that could only occur once Taiwan was already defeated.

So the only weaknesses we get by supplying UKR is in anti-missile, anti-air assets.  We're not sending our navy, nor our air assets. 

There needs to be a serious medium term effort to increase Taiwan's air and missile defenses to the point the Chinese don't even consider it. I mean Taiwan makes the chips that run it all, and that really is the hard part. As this thread lays out nicely rockets are pretty much rockets, except for the brains at the front end.

 

[Der Zeitgeist]

On 12/2/2022 at 9:50 AM, Der Zeitgeist said:

I hope they don't waste their time and resources going for the Russian power grid.

More useful to try and smuggle a mortar team or some drones to Saratov...

Hmmmm....

 

[chrisl]

1 hour ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

Hmmmm....

 

Probably just someone dropped a crate unloading a shipment of cigarettes from China.

[Der Zeitgeist]

1 minute ago, chrisl said:

Probably just someone dropped a crate unloading a shipment of cigarettes from China.

At Engels and Ryazan, on the same night?

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

Hmmmm....

 

ALT POV:

Engels has nukes stored, no?

So... Wot Air Def doin',  boychik? 

[Zeleban]

1 hour ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

Hmmmm....

 

There is a real fire in Russian telegram chats. They claim that the American headquarters are now laughing at the helplessness of the air defense of the bases of Russian strategic bombers

[Haiduk]

Except 2 damaged Tu-95 in Engels, reportedly on Dyagilevo airfield were damaged 4 aircraft. This is a base for 43rd Aircraft combat usage and personnel retraining center (Tu-95, Tu-142, Tu-22M3) and 203rd aerial refuel tankers regiment (Il-78)

Our intelligence has been expecting huge strike on 5-6th Dec, so looks like this attack can foil Rissian plans little bit.

On eve Ukroboronprom announced new series of tests of work against EW assets of our new kamikadze drone with 1000 km range, carring 75 kg warhead. 

More recently charity fund Back-and-Alive has started fundraising for some "black box" project for Intelligence Directorate for about 6 million $ - this project has an aim "to reduce Russian strike capabilities"

So... What from theese two ? )))

Edited December 5, 2022 by Haiduk

[Huba]

They will be launching these strikes from Vladivostok very soon  But seaborne drones are being built too I hear, so it won't  help! 
Here's another video, guessing by the sound it might've been something jet powered?

 

 

[Taranis]

For History : 01-15th November sum up

 

 

 

Edited December 5, 2022 by Taranis

[Der Zeitgeist]

26 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

There is a real fire in Russian telegram chats. They claim that the American headquarters are now laughing at the helplessness of the air defense of the bases of Russian strategic bombers

Just wait until they find out that the Russian government has to notify the US of any strategic bomber losses there, as stipulated by the New START treaty. 

[FancyCat]

 

 

[Huba]

This news is perhaps more important than the strike at Engels. 

 

[Zeleban]

 

[Zeleban]

 

[Haiduk]

19 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

 

There are many discussions what weapon could hit Ka-52 with "top attack". 138th AD brigade, who claimed they shot down this helicopter had S-300PS, but allegedly this hit not similar for S-300 work, though it could be just coincidence. One of versions - this could be Aspide SAM. And somebody even presented weird version this could be SMART ammo from the howitzer )

PS. Russian TG Fighterbomber has written in this helicopter the best and more combat effective crew on this direction was lost, having many targets being hit

Edited December 5, 2022 by Haiduk

[Zeleban]

Another air defense missile strike. This time, the Russians were trying to shoot down a Ukrainian brigade-level Leleka-100 drone. It looks like they didn't succeed.

[Haiduk]

Air raid alarm - reportedly 15 strategic bombers in the air. Looks like Russians are really were offended

Some Russian TG now claim also Shaikovka airfield (Tu-22M3) was allegedly under attack, but no confirmation. Probably this can be confused with information, issued by Russian oppositioner Latynina, that as if on eve on this airfield was a leak of toxic fuel for Kh-22 missile and airfield for now is closed until emergency works are competed

 

[The_Capt]

7 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Great stuff gents, many thanks as always. 

I have been fortunate to find plenty of spaces where I am by far the smartest guy in the room, so it's great to be not even close in this one.

That won't stop me from asking dumbass questions, peeking under rocks and being devils' advocate though; it's a great way to learn.

Nothing dumbass about those questions.  In fact the mainstream western analysis by people getting paid a lot of money relied a lot on metrics that have been rendered somewhat strained in this war.  I have spent most of this war trying to figure out what the hell is going on because after years of western military programming the seemingly impossible happened.

The only way I can see for Russia to freeze this conflict or reverse its course is a failure in western resolve. At what is starting to look like approaching a quarter million casualties and billions of dollars in losses, materiel and economic, one has to ask “how much is Ukraine really worth to Russia?” What it means to us is a shoring up of the western global order and our places in it, which is worth a lot.

But western attention spans are only slightly better than teenage lust.  We see cracks and rumbles throughout.  Insular and nationalistic leaning political parties are less interested in “foreign border disputes”.  A steady stream of pro-Russian lies and spins from some - in some circles - political darlings is not helping,  All in the middle of a recession.  If Putin did this whole thing in the MENA we likely would have kept making duck sounds on the diplomatic front and then went back to watching reality tv.  But he decided on demonstrating hard power a little too close to us.

This is likely the first real war of the 21st century colliding with the last war of the 20th. A whole lot is up in the air. Which kind of makes me wonder if every major war isn’t a collision of the old and new - a deadly theatrical demonstration of the evolution of human civilization every time.  Of course if war is an evolutionary process, it begs the question - what are we evolving into?