How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

On 11/27/2022 at 5:50 PM, billbindc said:

 

This is a very good summary of the mystery missile system that likely resulted in the famous Crimean strike.  Not much new to determine if it was, in fact, responsible.  However, it does reinforce what we've speculated on here in this thread.  So that's good.

The best part of this was an analysis of why Russian air defenses would be unlikely to target, not to mention intercept, the Hrim-2 or it's bigger brother Sapsan.  We know that Russia has hard difficulty in intercepting missiles generally, but the author might be onto some of the details as to what's behind the failure.  I don't know enough about the technicalities of air defenses to comment, but what he proposed does seem plausible to me given similar deficiencies in other Russian capabilities.  For example, the Muskova's sinking or Russia's air defenses in Belgorod.

Steve

[kevinkin]

This reporting makes you think defense contractors see the war as a huge lab to play in:

"Boeing and Saab would no doubt be keen to see GLSDB exposed to combat against a high-end opposition in Ukraine, which would not only prove its capabilities but also bring it to the attention of other possible export customers. Central and Eastern European nations, in particular, are currently recalibrating their armed forces to meet the changing Russian threat, and long-range strike is a key area of concern."

While Ukraine suffers, how about beating the stuffing out of Russia with the technology first and then go sell the GL-SDB into the new paradigm?

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ground-launched-small-diameter-bomb-would-double-ukraines-precision-strike-range

 

Edited November 29, 2022 by kevinkin

[dan/california]

49 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

While Ukraine suffers, how about beating the stuffing out of Russia with the technology first and then go sell the GL-SDB into the new paradigm?

I think this is the general plan. A couple of governments just need to get over their fear of winning and get out of the way.

[Fenris]

As real events have quietened down somewhat here is something for our epicaricacy (a new word I just learnt - the internet reckons it's the english equivalent of schadenfreude)

 

[The_Capt]

6 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I'm not so sure.  The House Republicans have a history of doing exactly the opposite of what the majority of their electorate wants and instead cater to the minority that shows up to the primaries.  This is one of the reasons why there was no "Red Wave" this midterm, when by all historical and logical measures there should have been a huge one.  So while I agree that the majority of Republican voters support Ukraine, I don't think we should be so sure it will translate into proportional support in the House.  Especially given the rhetoric coming from its leadership.

The threat to support for Ukraine should not be underestimated.  The threat by the overtly pro-Putin fascists within the far right wing of the Republican party should likewise not be underestimated.  I stumbled upon this as an example:

Just listen to the first few seconds to see how totally Macgregor is pushing a pro-Russian narrative that has absolutely no relation to the real world at all.  If you can make it a little bit further you'll hear him saying that Russia will soon take all of Ukraine because Russia is currently holding itself back.  It gets even more crazy after that (for example the Kyiv Nazis are  deliberately killing Polish fighters who are in Ukraine in Ukrainian uniforms).

It's easy to dismiss this crackpot (or paid Kremlin employee or both) as representing only a fringe of the Republican Party, that his voice isn't influential, or that the Republican Party isn't interested in what he has to say.  That is absolutely not the case.  As a reminder, President Trump tried to have Macgregor be the US Ambassador to Germany in 2020.  Yes, this guy who was already on the record as saying Russia should just annex the Donbas because it is Russian to begin with.  And why was he proposed as the Ambassador to Germany specifically?  I'm sure you can do the math on that one.  After the Senate rejected his nomination (basically because he believes genocide is an acceptable state policy) he spent at least 3 months as a paid advisor to the Secretary of Defense.  That is not fringe support.

When Russia Today was still a thing, he was on there constantly parroting Kremlin talking points long before this war started.  Despite being an obvious mouthpiece for the Kremlin (not to mention his history of pro-fascist comments), he's been the darling of mainstream and extreme Republican media.  Fox has had him on many times as has outlets like Newsmax, not to mention the fringe venues.  I just saw that one of his appearances on Fox has 10 million views on YouTube. This pathetic video above has several hundred thousand views in a few days and the comments section reads like an exit poll from Hitler giving a talk about how things really are.

There is a powerful pro-Russian lobby that is actively seeking to undermine support for Ukraine.  They use people like Macgregor to promote their agenda.  McCarthy is part of this as well and he is about to become Speaker of the House.  I think it is naive to an extreme to think this powerful pro-Russian/anti-American lobby won't have an impact on US support for Ukraine.

Steve

US politics aside.  How on earth are people still listening to this guy after 9 months of an almost continuous steady stream of “being wrong”?! I mean I have been tracking Macgregor since the very early days and by my count Ukraine has collapsed in this war about a half a dozen times according to him.  I get that he is telling some people what they want to hear and lord knows one political party or the other could not possibly getting a win, but at some point one has to go - “hey didn’t he say the Russians won by now?”  I am absolutely baffled that anyone is listening to an former military officer whose analysis and predictions have been proven very wrong, repeatedly.  

As a professional military officer I am left wonder if he and I are watching the same war.  “Russia is holding back?”  Holding back what?!  And “for what?”  The loss count is getting to modern army crippling levels- when your losses are approaching Iraqi standards and you are constantly losing ground to show for it…well you get my point.  I mean we all get that there is “spinning” but this is outright lying - the guy is a SAMS grad FFS.

 

[NamEndedAllen]

3 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

US politics aside.  How on earth are people still listening to this guy after 9 months of an almost continuous steady stream of “being wrong”?! I mean I have been tracking Macgregor since the very early days and by my count Ukraine has collapsed in this war about a half a dozen times according to him.  I get that he is telling some people what they want to hear and lord knows one political party or the other could not possibly getting a win, but at some point one has to go - “hey didn’t he say the Russians won by now?”  I am absolutely baffled that anyone is listening to an former military officer whose analysis and predictions have been proven very wrong, repeatedly.  

As a professional military officer I am left wonder if he and I are watching the same war.  “Russia is holding back?”  Holding back what?!  And “for what?”  The loss count is getting to modern army crippling levels- when your losses are approaching Iraqi standards and you are constantly losing ground to show for it…well you get my point.  I mean we all get that there is “spinning” but this is outright lying - the guy is a SAMS grad FFS.

 

Because they do not believe he is wrong! You guys up North breathe the calm cool vapors of reason, of evidence for and against. Much like the Russian tv videos that are linked here that many in Russia do indeed believe…we here in the USA have a significant percentage of citizens who believe in alternative “ facts”. And perhaps of much more explanatory value, they limit quite severely the information sources to which they attend. Definitely not including the primary sources in print, video and internet. Mountains of independent research have supported this unfortunate tendency. And so, we have a large body of people living in a small information bubble.

To be fair, we ALL do this to some extent (except those here in the greatest information aggregator on Earth, where reports are vetted and chiseled pro and con by every one and the actual experts until a redo above best provisional judgment remains - but is up for revision if facts warrant it. What a concept!

[sross112]

14 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

US politics aside.  How on earth are people still listening to this guy after 9 months of an almost continuous steady stream of “being wrong”?! I mean I have been tracking Macgregor since the very early days and by my count Ukraine has collapsed in this war about a half a dozen times according to him.  I get that he is telling some people what they want to hear and lord knows one political party or the other could not possibly getting a win, but at some point one has to go - “hey didn’t he say the Russians won by now?”  I am absolutely baffled that anyone is listening to an former military officer whose analysis and predictions have been proven very wrong, repeatedly.  

As a professional military officer I am left wonder if he and I are watching the same war.  “Russia is holding back?”  Holding back what?!  And “for what?”  The loss count is getting to modern army crippling levels- when your losses are approaching Iraqi standards and you are constantly losing ground to show for it…well you get my point.  I mean we all get that there is “spinning” but this is outright lying - the guy is a SAMS grad FFS.

 

I used to say that meteorologist was the perfect job; it was the only place you could be consistently wrong and not get fired. Well, I guess I stand corrected and will add talk show military analyst to the list.....

[Battlefront.com]

37 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

As a professional military officer I am left wonder if he and I are watching the same war.  “Russia is holding back?”  Holding back what?!  And “for what?”  The loss count is getting to modern army crippling levels- when your losses are approaching Iraqi standards and you are constantly losing ground to show for it…well you get my point.  I mean we all get that there is “spinning” but this is outright lying - the guy is a SAMS grad FFS.

He's either insane, working for Russia, working on behalf of Fascism, or some combo.  What he isn't is someone who speaks with any degree of credibility.

At some point in his career he was a competent, perhaps even gifted, officer.  But he's obviously strayed far from that path.  What he is engaged in is straight up treason.  Legally, however, he's off the hook because there is no declaration of war with Russia.

Steve

[JonS]

1 hour ago, Fenris said:

epicaricacy

Kakocracy, I think, is the word you're looking for. Use that in a sentence? Why of course: "The kakocracy is in charge of Kakistan."

Edited November 29, 2022 by JonS

[JonS]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

the guy is a SAMS grad FFS.

I mean ... have you actually read many SAMS student papers? There is some genuinely good stuff there.

Some.

edit: There are a few SAMS grads here. I know a some of them. One of them told me about the evolution of his final paper, the short version of which is "My supervisor gave me my argument, I just had to prove it." I.e., the conclusion lead to the evidence, rather than the evidence lead to a conclusion. Rather like the difference between debating a point, and arguing a point. McGregor is debating a point, and his team says "Yellow!", so MacGregor debates yellow. Just like his training at SAMS taught him.

Edited November 29, 2022 by JonS

[JonS]

46 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

they limit quite severely the information sources to which they attend.

+1 for a delightful use of "attend."

[Ithikial_AU]

That video with the interview, no idea why I'm still listening to it. This guy is a crackpot. Yes Kherson was founded by the Russian Empire but today the ethnicity profile of the city if 70%+ Ukrainian.

[Tux]

3 hours ago, Ithikial_AU said:

That video with the interview, no idea why I'm still listening to it. This guy is a crackpot. Yes Kherson was founded by the Russian Empire but today the ethnicity profile of the city if 70%+ Ukrainian.

Oh, for the love of…

I mean, how many microseconds does it take a functional mind to realise the ridiculous and chaotic implications for a world in which that argument carried any weight?  Apparently Macgregor himself was born in Philadelphia for crying out loud!

I’m glad I didn’t watch that far.

[The_Capt]

6 hours ago, JonS said:

I mean ... have you actually read many SAMS student papers? There is some genuinely good stuff there.

Some.

edit: There are a few SAMS grads here. I know a some of them. One of them told me about the evolution of his final paper, the short version of which is "My supervisor gave me my argument, I just had to prove it." I.e., the conclusion lead to the evidence, rather than the evidence lead to a conclusion. Rather like the difference between debating a point, and arguing a point. McGregor is debating a point, and his team says "Yellow!", so MacGregor debates yellow. Just like his training at SAMS taught him.

It is supposed to be the Jedi Academy, or at least that is how the Canadian Army sells it.  I never attended - of course the Canadian Army and I parted ways over a decade ago.

At some point the debate became ecclesiastical-like because reality has left the building in that video.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

16 hours ago, Kinophile said:

As a springboard to anywhere East it's a dead-end. Its too built up, leads into even more built up areas, the terrain is awful (the mud is bad now, but wait till all the snow melts...) and is more logistically useful for the Ivan than UKR. I'd say there are areas with far great potential reward for the ZSU than slogging across a 21st century version of Passchendaele.

I think it has good potential for an initial attack in order to draw Russians away from other fronts.

Those built up areas include Donieck and Lugansk, and the Russians will do everything to avoid any of them being directly attacked by Ukrainians. And the Russian soldiers in front of Bakhmut are set up for attack, not defence, in recently conquered locations. Also, they are Wagner and if they are in danger , Prigozhin will use all his influence to have them reinforced. So Ukrainian attack there may have a chance to make good initial progress, at which point Russians will pull reserves from other areas to reinforce and the Ukrainians  can attack in Zaporozhe or around Svatove, which are currently full of RUS soldiers.

[Lethaface]

7 hours ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Because they do not believe he is wrong! You guys up North breathe the calm cool vapors of reason, of evidence for and against. Much like the Russian tv videos that are linked here that many in Russia do indeed believe…we here in the USA have a significant percentage of citizens who believe in alternative “ facts”. And perhaps of much more explanatory value, they limit quite severely the information sources to which they attend. Definitely not including the primary sources in print, video and internet. Mountains of independent research have supported this unfortunate tendency. And so, we have a large body of people living in a small information bubble.

To be fair, we ALL do this to some extent (except those here in the greatest information aggregator on Earth, where reports are vetted and chiseled pro and con by every one and the actual experts until a redo above best provisional judgment remains - but is up for revision if facts warrant it. What a concept!

FWIW there's plenty of people who seem to have lost their brains around here as well. People who, a coupe of years ago, were perfectly capable of critical thinking in most situations.

But after the perfect storm of crises I guess (subconscious) anxiety has driven them to think more extreme / believe more extremist stuff. For example, if Covid is a hoax there is no pandemic going on and one don't have to be scared of it :D.  Perhaps that's how it works for Russian invasion as well; Russia was provoked to intervene Ukraine to not join NATO, so there is no risk of Russia starting large wars without reasons as long as we don't provoke them. Or sumfink?

I also blame social media addiction. If you're scrolling all day on instagram/tiktok whatever, the algorithm is just feeding you what you want to see (I guess many booty/cars etc) and easy explanations for the scary stuff out there in the RL. 
It's all distracting them from buying stuff and 'enjoying' their life. Actually getting informed properly takes too much time and effort. 

 

Edited November 29, 2022 by Lethaface

[acrashb]

8 hours ago, NamEndedAllen said:

You guys up North breathe the calm cool vapors of reason, of evidence for and against.

One assumes this is a joke, but for clarity - it could not be more wrong.  The US' foibles loom larger on the world stage because they matter more; Canada's foibles get regional coverage, partly because of the much smaller economy and partly because Canada seems non-threatening to other parts of the world and so is discounted.  

But 'reason' is in short supply with our leaders and commentariat as much as elsewhere.  If the US seems more 'out there', in addition to the above, and to deliberate gridlock built into the US political system, there is the issue of gerrymandering, a pox on democracies everywhere.  Schwarzenegger's core legacy in California is, and will be seen as, attempts to dampen this.

Back to lurking.

[Beleg85]

A short thread, slightly contra our views on limitations of Wagner as a military force (embedded NYT article on Ukrainian losses is also worth to read- they  reportedly increased in last days even more than before):

 

[Kinophile]

Thanks @Beleg85

Hope he can expand further on those thoughts, not quite at a deeper conclusion yet. 

[Lethaface]

19 hours ago, JonS said:

Oh, I dont know about that. The Ukrainians appear to be doing ok without it. And the Turks. Also the Iranians.

Who knows they've been playing tons of CMBS? Assumptions

[LongLeftFlank]

17 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Current TDF are not the same, that in first months of war. They are the same enough experienced troops, passing many fights like other new-formed brigades. Just light infantry, but clashes near Bakhmut is brutal fight in WW1 style + arty, many arty, even sometime with hand-to hand combat in the trenches or at least knife-range skirmishes. 

I don't know who exactly came there as "special forces", but note, that with this term in Ukraine named not only real SOF (SSO in UKR), but some sort of "rangers" - light forces for infiltrations, mop-up, rapid hit&run, search&destroy actions. They can have different subordination - Ground Forces, National Guard, police, GUR, SBU, but not to SSO Command. 

In National Guard some units also has a status of "special", but it means just some priority tasks, appointed for them.

I keep saying to friends off this board that this war has a LOT in common with the American Revolution, with NATO playing the role of France (albeit sans Rochambeau, so far).

In that war, it was scratch armies patched together from regional militias (TD) that won a majority of the key battles, from Bunker Hill onward, against the British regulars.  Of course, the regular regimental system wasn't as different from that as it became later.

....Wow, a lot of US politix here all of a sudden. So much for that taboo. It was a nice 1750 pages.

[kevinkin]

SEAD hits rock bottom:

"Russian forces are likely using inert Kh-55 cruise missiles (no nukes) in their massive missile strike campaign against Ukrainian critical infrastructure, further highlighting the depletion of the Russian military’s high-precision weapons arsenal."

ISW Report, 11/26/2022

[Beleg85]

43 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Hope he can expand further on those thoughts, not quite at a deeper conclusion yet. 

Hope so too, especially claim that Wagnerite force being more stiff and inflexible than regulars. Which is usually opposite to our conclusions here. It has some merit, though- the PMC/Wagner complex changed immensly in the last 9 months. Now its lower part is indeed nothing more than established system for literally meatgrinding "unwanted" of Russian society, in exchange for some ill-defined strategic goals. Higher echelons ("League" or "Caste", note similarities to prison culture) seems almost like another force focused only on support.

Edited November 29, 2022 by Beleg85

[Seminole]

 

13 hours ago, NamEndedAllen said:

 I keep reminding folks, it isn’t a question of will or won’t USA Republican Congress fund Ukraine! At least until 2024, the USA will continue military funding. The issue is HOW MUCH funding, and even more so, HOW LONG WILL IT TAKE to pass. Yes, the Fascist slanted Pro Russians in Congress are a minority. But the Republican majority hangs by a thread, so each member of a small minority wields enormous power. Because their vote is needed to pass funding bills. And as Steve has said, they will drag us through the coals using their misbegotten soapbox. While Ukrainians due defending their country.

The idea that Congress won’t feed the MIC is frankly laughable.   

Such funding will have plenty of Democrat votes, so the fringe GOP members are not really an issue for passage, just good for ratings as mentioned.  
 

[Splinty]

31 minutes ago, Seminole said:

 

The idea that Congress won’t feed the MIC is frankly laughable.   

Such funding will have plenty of Democrat votes, so the fringe GOP members are not really an issue for passage, just good for ratings as mentioned.  
 

Unless there are enough "No war at any cost" Democrats to equal the "No more money for foreign conflicts" Republicans.