How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[hcrof]

Relevant discussion on tanks in Ukraine:

https://ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordpress.com/2022/11/25/here-russian-tanks-are-mostly-fodder/

I know the Russians are "using them wrong" but the interviewee emphasizes that they are so visible on the battlefield they are very vulnerable.

[FancyCat]

I'm sure Ukraine is suffering demanding issues in Bakhmut. Unless it's the author misinterpreting the reinforcements, I am unsure how special forces and lesser trained TDF being moved into Bakhmut is good. Low experienced formations being moved to hot spots is probably not a great situation, and depending on the type of special forces, aren't they better suited for other work than holding a front line?

Tho in hindsight, before the Kharkiv offensive, Ukraine had amassed a good cadre of units to launch that, they may well be doing it again waiting for Spring.

A article on Kherson resupply until Russian occupation.

Very interesting, how civilian networks kept supplies flowing thru the front lines.

https://kyivindependent.com/national/how-volunteers-helped-kherson-residents-survive-through-the-occupation

 

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

Tho in hindsight, before the Kharkiv offensive, Ukraine had amassed a good cadre of units to launch that, they may well be doing it again waiting for Spring

That's a long time for a unit to "wait" in a very hot zone. Bahkmut feels like Russia's next Pesky - UKR could let them impale unit after unit while drip feeding in reinforcements and using now-peer levels of arty to accelerate the bleed. As a killing zone until the spring it works great (albeit heavy on the UKR as well - but still a contained and "manageable" loss*).

As a springboard to anywhere East it's a dead-end. Its too built up, leads into even more built up areas, the terrain is awful (the mud is bad now, but wait till all the snow melts...) and is more logistically useful for the Ivan than UKR. I'd say there are areas with far great potential reward for the ZSU than slogging across a 21st century version of Passchendaele.

 

^{*...from a bluntly and emotionless operational perspective. But heart-breaking from a bereaved daughter, son, father, mother, brother, sister's viewpoint...}

Edited November 28, 2022 by Kinophile

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

UKR General Staff claimes UKR forces damaged railroad bridge through Molochna river near Starobohdanivka village, Zaporizhzhia oblast. This is beteween Melitopol and Tokmak. This will delay for some time supply of Russian frontline units in Zaporizhzha oblast and southern part of Donetsk oblast.

Here, yah?

https://goo.gl/maps/ScYb3pzng5vnVWEK7

 

Edited November 28, 2022 by Kinophile

[Haiduk]

5 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Here, yah?

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Enerhodar,+Zaporizhia+Oblast,+Ukraine,+71500/@47.0786157,35.485912,709m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x40dcbf0400d1e1cf:0xb190794e10a6d907!8m2!3d47.5015067!4d34.6341859

Main fight on Zaporozhzhia front is Orikhiv - Huliayopole line. Tokmak railway node is last one, from which this group is supplied

Edited November 28, 2022 by Haiduk

[sross112]

48 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

and depending on the type of special forces, aren't they better suited for other work than holding a front line?

This reminds me of a question I had thought of while driving the other day and forgot to post. Maybe @Haiduk or @Zeleban or others can give an educated response.

It was always my understanding that the special forces were an integral part of the Russian army offensive plans. They were always more prodigious in the past and it was believed they would play a large role of infiltration and disruption to the rear areas of the west if the cold war went hot. Is this still part of the RA doctrine? If so, has there been any evidence of Spetsnaz raids or infiltration/disruption missions? 

I haven't seen anything on here other than it looking like they were being used as assault troops. Maybe it is another facet of the RA where the west thought they were more capable than they actually are?

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

I am unsure how special forces and lesser trained TDF being moved into Bakhmut is good. Low experienced formations being moved to hot spots is probably not a great situation, and depending on the type of special forces, aren't they better suited for other work than holding a front line

Current TDF are not the same, that in first months of war. They are the same enough experienced troops, passing many fights like other new-formed brigades. Just light infantry, but clashes near Bakhmut is brutal fight in WW1 style + arty, many arty, even sometime with hand-to hand combat in the trenches or at least knife-range skirmishes. 

I don't know who exactly came there as "special forces", but note, that with this term in Ukraine named not only real SOF (SSO in UKR), but some sort of "rangers" - light forces for infiltrations, mop-up, rapid hit&run, search&destroy actions. They can have different subordination - Ground Forces, National Guard, police, GUR, SBU, but not to SSO Command. 

In National Guard some units also has a status of "special", but it means just some priority tasks, appointed for them.

Edited November 28, 2022 by Haiduk

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

UKR General Staff claimes UKR forces damaged railroad bridge through Molochna river near Starobohdanivka village, Zaporizhzhia oblast. This is beteween Melitopol and Tokmak. This will delay for some time supply of Russian frontline units in Zaporizhzha oblast and southern part of Donetsk oblast.

I've been wondering about this.  There's only one east-west rail line, and it goes through Tokmak toward Melitopol.  Then there's the single line at Kerch which splits in two leaving north side of Crimea.  Seems like a very sketchy supply situation for such a huge area.  And now we know UKR has been hitting Perekop line and Tokmak line, along w Kerch supply already greatly degraded.  

So we're looking at lots of low quality troops w poor supplies and commanders that treat them worse than donkeys.  Add to that wet, cold winter conditions.  And throw on top of that flu/cold/covid sickness.  I wonder how many of those zombie RU soldiers w see are sick, very sick, due to lack of proper food, shelter, clothing which hurts sleep & immune system function.

[NamEndedAllen]

6 hours ago, kevinkin said:

100% agree. Not concerned with oversight at all. It's the role of Congress. There is chance to actually get more support for Ukraine. No politician wants to vote against a nation on the verge of a major geopolitical shake up in the West's favor. Rogue votes will be made, but they are for representative's constituents to high five over. Those votes will have nothing to do with Ukraine per se. But just a protest about foreign spending in general. Ukraine does not have a blank check, but the support required for victory will be there in the end. This might be the most bipartisan issue in years and really tick off cable news. There are no ratings fighting over a few hundred million one way or the other. 

It’s the sausage making, folks! The problem with these opinions about the USA new House of Representatives Republicans and what they will do or not do is too often missing the actual legislative process. It isn’t so much about YES OR NO, WILL REPUBLICANS SUPPORT UKRAINE FUNDING crystal ball gazing! The issue is how much the isolationist AND pro Russia/Putin elected Congress persons will slow down all funding legislation, and what special interests demands they will tack on to Ukraine funding in order to get to a floor vote. Both parties ALWAYS add in pet partisan items into must pass legislation, because, duh! Must pass. Then they haggle over what price will be paid to drop some of these, or to keep them. It gets ugly.

Remember, it is the House that makes spending/Appropriation bills. The bottom line is that the establishment of increased oversight (a bipartisan move underway now, actually) along with getting *any* Appropriation legislation passed and then negotiated with the Democratic Senate is going to take more *time*. Time is the 500 ton monster in the “room”, killing Ukrainians daily, freezing them in their homes, hobbling businesses. And moving the USA closer to the 2024 Presidential election which is guaranteed to be fierce and unpredictable. Ukraine needs more military options NOW. They need an answer to Russia’s crimes against humanity missile attacks against civilians across the country. And quickly.

[Battlefront.com]

9 hours ago, Billy Ringo said:

A few random comments from the bleachers:

1. In a non-military industry, I've worked with some of the best AI gurus in my business who have been trying to apply and leverage machine learning and artificial intelligence for years.   MASSIVE amounts of data. It's not easy and not nearly as productive as many selling the technology proclaim.  Like--"don't believe 90% of the BS because it's all wishful for thinking for most of them."   There is gold in AI---but be careful about who proclaims they've found it and when they will be able to truly deliver.

2. The daily Russian kill/destroy numbers over the past few weeks are significantly and fairly consistently high on casualties, low on weapons destruction.  Is this because of the weather? A pause in combat operations? Russia running out of military hardware?  Mobilized forces being thrown into the meat grinder?  Something else?  Or "D", all of the above?

3. I'm still of the strong opinion that there will not be a tangible decrease in Republican/Conservative support of Ukraine.  Yes, there are rumblings and some outliers--but when all is said and done the support will remain.    My reasoning and to reiterate--just my humble opinion:

• The conservative voices questioning support of Ukraine are being magnified beyond their actual political power and influence.  Certainly wouldn't be the first time the media or some self-interest group tried to sow division where it may not be and push their own agenda.
• Conservative support for Ukraine is still strong and most Republican politicians know and understand that.  I was raised and live in the South---Ukrainian support is flat out solid in my little sphere of the world.  I work and talk with people all over North America--I don't here any rumblings of dissatisfaction.  And to the very esteemed posters who have mentioned this topic over the past 24 hours--the locations are California, Seattle, Oregon, etc.  Just like my residence in Tennessee is not indicative of the opinions of the rest of the country--those views may not be reflective of the flyover states.  Where we live influences our perspective whether we like it or not.
• Rand Paul is not as crazy or Putin loving as some may believe.  I grew up in Western Kentucky and have friends that know him.  He is outspoken and takes a different approach than many, but underneath he's fairly reasonable and his verbal positioning is to frequently just challenge the traditional group think of his own party.  Accountability is important to him, so it's no surprise he questions spending---but his desire to cut funding to Ukraine may be less than it appears.

Peace and thanks to everyone on this forum for their brilliant and informative comments.

I'm not so sure.  The House Republicans have a history of doing exactly the opposite of what the majority of their electorate wants and instead cater to the minority that shows up to the primaries.  This is one of the reasons why there was no "Red Wave" this midterm, when by all historical and logical measures there should have been a huge one.  So while I agree that the majority of Republican voters support Ukraine, I don't think we should be so sure it will translate into proportional support in the House.  Especially given the rhetoric coming from its leadership.

The threat to support for Ukraine should not be underestimated.  The threat by the overtly pro-Putin fascists within the far right wing of the Republican party should likewise not be underestimated.  I stumbled upon this as an example:

Just listen to the first few seconds to see how totally Macgregor is pushing a pro-Russian narrative that has absolutely no relation to the real world at all.  If you can make it a little bit further you'll hear him saying that Russia will soon take all of Ukraine because Russia is currently holding itself back.  It gets even more crazy after that (for example the Kyiv Nazis are  deliberately killing Polish fighters who are in Ukraine in Ukrainian uniforms).

It's easy to dismiss this crackpot (or paid Kremlin employee or both) as representing only a fringe of the Republican Party, that his voice isn't influential, or that the Republican Party isn't interested in what he has to say.  That is absolutely not the case.  As a reminder, President Trump tried to have Macgregor be the US Ambassador to Germany in 2020.  Yes, this guy who was already on the record as saying Russia should just annex the Donbas because it is Russian to begin with.  And why was he proposed as the Ambassador to Germany specifically?  I'm sure you can do the math on that one.  After the Senate rejected his nomination (basically because he believes genocide is an acceptable state policy) he spent at least 3 months as a paid advisor to the Secretary of Defense.  That is not fringe support.

When Russia Today was still a thing, he was on there constantly parroting Kremlin talking points long before this war started.  Despite being an obvious mouthpiece for the Kremlin (not to mention his history of pro-fascist comments), he's been the darling of mainstream and extreme Republican media.  Fox has had him on many times as has outlets like Newsmax, not to mention the fringe venues.  I just saw that one of his appearances on Fox has 10 million views on YouTube. This pathetic video above has several hundred thousand views in a few days and the comments section reads like an exit poll from Hitler giving a talk about how things really are.

There is a powerful pro-Russian lobby that is actively seeking to undermine support for Ukraine.  They use people like Macgregor to promote their agenda.  McCarthy is part of this as well and he is about to become Speaker of the House.  I think it is naive to an extreme to think this powerful pro-Russian/anti-American lobby won't have an impact on US support for Ukraine.

Steve

[chrisl]

4 hours ago, dan/california said:

The game is the only way to develop those tactics. It might take multiple modules, but the game is the way to test carious ideas at least well enough to see if they are worth pursuing. I am just hoping we get a publicly available version. I am a bit worried that various western militaries have gotten a clue, and decided it so useful the other side shouldn't be able to buy it.

I suppose the risk is that uncrewed equipment gets so effective that the game just gets tied to the ISR and the drones IRL and we never see it…

[danfrodo]

9 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I'm not so sure.  The House Republicans have a history of doing exactly the opposite of what the majority of their electorate wants and instead cater to the minority that shows up to the primaries.  This is one of the reasons why there was no "Red Wave" this midterm, when by all historical and logical measures there should have been a huge one.  So while I agree that the majority of Republican voters support Ukraine, I don't think we should be so sure it will translate into proportional support in the House.  Especially given the rhetoric coming from its leadership.

The threat to support for Ukraine should not be underestimated.  The threat by the overtly pro-Putin fascists within the far right wing of the Republican party should likewise not be underestimated.  I stumbled upon this as an example:

Just listen to the first few seconds to see how totally Macgregor is pushing a pro-Russian narrative that has absolutely no relation to the real world at all.  If you can make it a little bit further you'll hear him saying that Russia will soon take all of Ukraine because Russia is currently holding itself back.  It gets even more crazy after that (for example the Kyiv Nazis are  deliberately killing Polish fighters who are in Ukraine in Ukrainian uniforms).

It's easy to dismiss this crackpot (or paid Kremlin employee or both) as representing only a fringe of the Republican Party, that his voice isn't influential, or that the Republican Party isn't interested in what he has to say.  That is absolutely not the case.  As a reminder, President Trump tried to have Macgregor be the US Ambassador to Germany in 2020.  Yes, this guy who was already on the record as saying Russia should just annex the Donbas because it is Russian to begin with.  And why was he proposed as the Ambassador to Germany specifically?  I'm sure you can do the math on that one.  After the Senate rejected his nomination (basically because he believes genocide is an acceptable state policy) he spent at least 3 months as a paid advisor to the Secretary of Defense.  That is not fringe support.

When Russia Today was still a thing, he was on there constantly parroting Kremlin talking points long before this war started.  Despite being an obvious mouthpiece for the Kremlin (not to mention his history of pro-fascist comments), he's been the darling of mainstream and extreme Republican media.  Fox has had him on many times as has outlets like Newsmax, not to mention the fringe venues.  I just saw that one of his appearances on Fox has 10 million views on YouTube. This pathetic video above has several hundred thousand views in a few days and the comments section reads like an exit poll from Hitler giving a talk about how things really are.

There is a powerful pro-Russian lobby that is actively seeking to undermine support for Ukraine.  They use people like Macgregor to promote their agenda.  McCarthy is part of this as well and he is about to become Speaker of the House.  I think it is naive to an extreme to think this powerful pro-Russian/anti-American lobby won't have an impact on US support for Ukraine.

Steve

Well, that's sufficiently depressing .  I suspect most non-US folks don't know that the most watched show on fox news is tucker carlson, who, from the start, talks like someone auditioning to get on Putin's PR payroll.  Maybe he already is, hard to say.  However, I am still holding to my belief that there's still good GOPers in the house who will fight tooth & nail to support UKR and will overcome the tankie faction.  

But on another topic, some artillery/logistics stuff here from former artillery guy who's summaries I like to link to.  Similar theme to what's been said here, often, that it's not the fighting crews that are the issue, it's the maintenence crews.  This ties in w the earlier posts about the proportion of artillery systems out for maintenence at any given time.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/11/28/2138792/-Ukraine-update-There-s-a-good-reason-Ukraine-hasn-t-gotten-the-most-modern-weapons

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

8 minutes ago, chrisl said:

I suppose the risk is that uncrewed equipment gets so effective that the game just gets tied to the ISR and the drones IRL and we never see it…

Reminds me of the old jokes we used to make when people suggested we simulate nukes in our games.  Wanna simulate that?  Say to yourself "I'm going to use nukes" then shut down your computer.  Simulation complete

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, danfrodo said:

Well, that's sufficiently depressing . 

It is, but it's also not surprising.  The pro-Russian lobby in the West is extremely strong for multiple reasons.  The fact that it is still this strong, despite Russia being economically and politically unable to exercise it's influence campaigns in the same way, demonstrates how much of the lobby is more pro-Fascist than pro-Russian.  And yes, that's even more depressing, but also not surprising.  Remember, Fascism is an invention of the West, therefore it isn't odd to see that it's roots go deep into Western culture.

That said, as important as it is to not underestimate the strength of the pro-Russian/pro-Fascist lobby in the United States, it is also important to keep in mind that the majority of the Republican Party isn't supportive of it.  They might be swayed here and there by specific arguments, but for the most part can be counted on supporting pro-American ideals.  Being harmed in the name of "accountability" or "economic concerns" is probable, but attempts to abandon Ukraine is not even remotely likely.  As Billy Ringo correctly stated, support for Ukraine amongst Republicans is way too strong for that to happen.  I think the pro-Russian/pro-Fascists have some sense of that.

What we will most likely see is the same sort of political circus that the previous Republican House did regarding raising the debt ceiling and the resulting government shutdown.  It didn't work and in fact backfired on them when the next election cycle came about.  If they remember how badly it went the last time, then we can have some hope of it being avoided this time.

Steve

[kevinkin]

33 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

I suspect most non-US folks don't know that the most watched show on fox news is tucker carlson, who, from the start, talks like someone auditioning to get on Putin's PR payroll.

Cable news has become entertainment and must be watched with this in mind. Without differing views, there is no reason to air the programs. There are no ratings. Most for the key people don't really believe half of what they say. It's an act. If anyone took a class in debating you are trained to be able to fight either side of any augment. A successful long running show becomes a brand. The host finds their niche; their slice of the ($$) market. And like Tide detergent it must deliver like your mom's Tide. There is no reason to tinker with the formula. So, many cable news hosts are trapped and can't have an open mind. Their viewers expect to be spoon fed certain opinions night after night. If someone wants to make the point that cable news has a tremendous influence on voters, they might be better off looking in why that is so because both sides are influenced by this form of entertainment. Cable news and Pro wrestling have a lot in common and I don't watch either. 

Edited November 28, 2022 by kevinkin

[danfrodo]

1 minute ago, kevinkin said:

Cable news has become entertainment and must be watched with this in mind. Without differing views, there is no reason to air the programs. There are no ratings. Most for the key people don't really believe half of what they say. It's an act. If anyone took a class in debating you are trained to be able to fight either side of any augment. A successful long running show becomes a brand. The host finds their niche; their slice of the ($$) market. And like Tide detergent it must deliver like your mom's Tide. There is no reason to tinker with the formula. So, many cable news hosts are trapped and can't have an open mind. Their viewer expect to be spoon fed certain opinions night after night. If someone wants to make the point that cable news has a tremendous influence on voters, they might be better off looking in why that is so because both sides are influenced by this form of entertainment. Cable news and Pro wrestling have a lot in common. 

I hear what you are saying about money, ratings, etc, but I don't agree w the false equivalence game.  Yes, you totally got it right -- TV news is mostly just utter garbage w folks sitting around saying nothing and arguing because it's cheap and folks watch it.  But Fox late night shows are cesspools of disinformation and propaganda that is consumed by millions and has serious, negative effects on what big chunk of what US folks think.  Crackpots on the left exist, but are nearly completely ignored.  Noam Chomsky -- who??

We should drop this, I think we're distracting the forum.  Go ahead and get in last word if you'd like, I'll not respond just so we can get off this theme.  

[Battlefront.com]

14 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Most for the key people don't really believe half of what they say. It's an act.

To some extent true. Carlson is famously quoted as once saying that if the liberals paid him as well as Fox that he'd be the most unabashed liberal out there   The problem I have with these clowns, be they left or right, is that the public watching them doesn't understand that they do this for money.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, danfrodo said:

We should drop this, I think we're distracting the forum.  Go ahead and get in last word if you'd like, I'll not respond just so we can get off this theme.  

Yeah, we are likely to go down the rabbit hole again.  The main point that started this line of discussion has, I think, been sufficiently made.  And that is we're likely to have some harmful political theater in the new year.  Not that there's anything we can do about it, but we as a group we do like to at least think one step ahead.  I believe that's the case so we can just let this go and wait for events to develop next year.

Steve

[Billy Ringo]

Still don't think the Republicans will reduce Ukrainian support and have already provided my reasoning.  I'll either be proven correct or die on that hill.   Such as it may be....

(FWIW--hit the post button on this before seeing the previous post.  So I'll just stick around on my little hill quietly for a bit longer and see what happens!)

Edited November 28, 2022 by Billy Ringo
Updated Based on Post Above This One

[danfrodo]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yeah, we are likely to go down the rabbit hole again.  The main point that started this line of discussion has, I think, been sufficiently made.  And that is we're likely to have some harmful political theater in the new year.  Not that there's anything we can do about it, but we as a group we do like to at least think one step ahead.  I believe that's the case so we can just let this go and wait for events to develop next year.

Steve

Looks like Steve gets the last word.  Well, I tried, KevinKin  

[kevinkin]

14 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

But Fox late night shows are cesspools of disinformation and propaganda that is consumed by millions and has serious, negative effects on what big chunk of what US folks think.

Both sides are. CNN and MSNBC are no different. Some people just pick the left or right cesspool to swim in And IMHO, most Americans are not voting based on these shows. If they are, we better look long and hard at how Americans are educated. But in any event, FOX et. al. only gathers up around 5 million viewers a day. NYC alone has a population of over 8 million. OK, we all understand each other. Let's wait and see how the 1Q pans out. 

 

[dan/california]

Put down all beverages first. It is that funny.

[OldSarge]

9 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Put down all beverages first. It is that funny.

Too funny! 'Their new rockets rain ball bearings down and turn our men to so much ground meat. On the bright side we now have a way around the sanctions on ball bearings:.

Edited November 28, 2022 by OldSarge

[MikeyD]

I'm reminded how the liberal news site Huffington Post was founded by conservative TV commentator Arianna Huffington and a certain fellow you may be familiar with the name Andrew Brietbart.

Edited November 29, 2022 by MikeyD

[NamEndedAllen]

50 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Both sides are. CNN and MSNBC are no different. Some people just pick the left or right cesspool to swim in And IMHO, most Americans are not voting based on these shows. If they are, we better look long and hard at how Americans are educated. But in any event, FOX et. al. only gathers up around 5 million viewers a day. NYC alone has a population of over 8 million. OK, we all understand each other. Let's wait and see how the 1Q pans out. 

 

Ok two last points:

1. Of course they are far different! Fox is in the tank with  Putin! Tucker Carlson on Fox is the highest rated cable news show in the USA. And absolutely adores Putin.

2. I keep reminding folks, it isn’t a question of will or won’t USA Republican Congress fund Ukraine! At least until 2024, the USA will continue military funding. The issue is HOW MUCH funding, and even more so, HOW LONG WILL IT TAKE to pass. Yes, the Fascist slanted Pro Russians in Congress are a minority. But the Republican majority hangs by a thread, so each member of a small minority wields enormous power. Because their vote is needed to pass funding bills. And as Steve has said, they will drag us through the coals using their misbegotten soapbox. While Ukrainians due defending their country.