How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Grossman]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yeah, I was focused too much on the "why didn't he launch the war in January instead of almost March", but you are correct that late February was about as long as he could keep his units in the field.  They were already in pretty bad shape in some cases due to ineptitude of keeping forces in the field during the winter.  Also, mud season was coming right up so if he didn't want weather to bog down his beautiful 3 day offensive he had to pull the trigger.

In summary, it appears that a variety of strategic reasons caused Winter 2022 to be the chosen time for "solving the Ukrainian question" with early-to-mid January being the likely anticipated start date.  The early and strong messaging from the West (initially led by the US, then US and Britain, then others) caused Putin to put things on hold until the Western threats could be assessed.  I also expect it was deeply troubling to Russian leadership that the West apparently knew a lot about their invasion plans, so they probably wanted some time to make some alterations.  One of those changes might have been to keep everybody below Divisional level clueless until the last minute.

That's the best explanation I can come up with until some within the Western or Russian high level circles fills in the gaps.

Steve

Putin's life ambition, and he is prepared to die trying, is to "reunite Mother Russia". Active planning started around 2010 and after the Maiden rebellion of Nov 2013-Feb 2014, it was executed immediately with the invasion of Crimea and the Donbas in Feb and Mar 2014. His "modernisation" of Russian forces was completed by 2020 and the army was in place on the frontier in full complement by Jan 2022. Putin had to wait until after the Beijing Olympics which finished on Feb 20th. Xi probably told him so, (and it is essential for Putin to keep the Chinese onside). It's Putin's life ambition; the only way Ukraine will be able to restore its borders and secure its country is by force. The West has to come to terms with what its up against and send the equipment to allow UKR to repel the Russians from its territory.  

[Battlefront.com]

50 minutes ago, Grossman said:

Putin's life ambition, and he is prepared to die trying, is to "reunite Mother Russia". Active planning started around 2010 and after the Maiden rebellion of Nov 2013-Feb 2014, it was executed immediately with the invasion of Crimea and the Donbas in Feb and Mar 2014. His "modernisation" of Russian forces was completed by 2020 and the army was in place on the frontier in full complement by Jan 2022. Putin had to wait until after the Beijing Olympics which finished on Feb 20th. Xi probably told him so, (and it is essential for Putin to keep the Chinese onside). It's Putin's life ambition; the only way Ukraine will be able to restore its borders and secure its country is by force. The West has to come to terms with what its up against and send the equipment to allow UKR to repel the Russians from its territory.  

Correct that Putin had general plans in place to invade Ukraine since just before Yanukovych took power, therefore what happened in February 2022 should have been no surprise to anybody, even if the details were surprising.  I was neither surprised by 2014 or 2022, and I expect deep down it was no surprise to any Western government either.  "Surprise" is a way of saying "well, we didn't do anything to prevent it.  Oh well, nothing we can do about it now.  Better luck next time".  This is the brilliance of the Biden Admin's release of intel well ahead of February.  They made absolutely sure the West, as a whole, couldn't claim ignorance as it had in the past.

But the discussion here was about why did the full invasion get planned for winter of 2022 instead of summer or some other year entirely.  Then, separately from that, why was the invasion pushed until almost mud season. 

Steve

[Grossman]

Putin had to respect Bejjing and not invade until after the Olympics. One suspects Xi new of his plans and told him to delay. Besides Putin didn't expect he had to fight. The invasion to Kiev was made on the main highway. 

There are emerging strategic issues arising from the war. The Black Sea has been a neutral sea, with freedom of shipping and trade. We now have a bellicose active Russian navy based in Sevastopol restricting/preventing trade. Principally food shipments to Africa,  Ukraine being the breadbasket for Africa. The embargo, or threat of embargo, will last until the Russians are cleared out of the Black Sea.  Secondly, Ukraine and the West must avoid another of Putin's festering hostile war zones, a cease fire where Putin would sit on captured territory and re-arm for the next round. The Ukrainians understand, I think. it has to be finished this time around. 

[Zeleban]

power sedan

[FancyCat]

Past few pages are filled to the brim with interesting stuff, my thanks to those who took the time to write or bring it up.

Winter is in full swing in Ukraine, to all posters there, may you be warm and healthy throughout.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1593823808246489089?t=getb5qsSX3TZ7YSAzeG6BQ&s=19

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1594456414583398402?t=lORAJIEozcBaCwwRG_NR0g&s=19

Hmm, looks like the embed went awry. they showed snow in Ukraine with tanks moving forward, and a MRAP having trouble in Southern Ukraine in the mud. Should not be a surprise movement on maps slows or stops.

[Battlefront.com]

This article has an video of excellent Russian military efficiency and performance.  This is a sign that not all of Russia's forces are total crap, however since I'm talking about 4 military police arresting 2 soldiers who refuse to go to Ukraine it probably doesn't mean much.

At least you can see that the Russians for once got their intel correct.  These Russian soldiers did not put up a fight

https://censor.net/en/photo_news/3381908/russian_army_has_started_demonstrative_arrests_of_mobilized_people_who_refuse_to_go_to_war_videophotos

Obviously this is a propaganda video to make sure mobiks and contractors alike understand that refusing to go to war means arrest.  Which is kinda funny because I think anybody refusing to fight in Ukraine is very well aware of what's going to happen to him.  They also know that the arrest is the easy part.  It's the beatings and torture after that are the real deterrent.

Steve

[Taranis]

"Ukrainian soldiers, in Bakhmout, Ukraine, November 11, 2022. LAURENT VAN DER STOCKT FOR “LE MONDE”"



"Ukrainian soldiers in front of what was Kherson International Airport, in the village of Chornobaivka, November 20, 2022. BULENT KILIC / AFP"

[Huba]

Here's something interesting regarding the future of anti-drone warfare. Note that this isn't 30x173 Bushmaster, but 30x113 ammunition for the AH-64 type gun. Given it's size, it might perhaps be adaptable to RWSs on tanks or something similar. I guess technology could be adapted to 30mm Bushmaster too.

As a side note, PL is working on programmable (not proximity fused, but AHEAD type) ammunition  in 23x152 caliber...

 

Edited November 21, 2022 by Huba

[The_Capt]

4 hours ago, Huba said:

Here's something interesting regarding the future of anti-drone warfare. Note that this isn't 30x173 Bushmaster, but 30x113 ammunition for the AH-64 type gun. Given it's size, it might perhaps be adaptable to RWSs on tanks or something similar. I guess technology could be adapted to 30mm Bushmaster too.

As a side note, PL is working on programmable (not proximity fused, but AHEAD type) ammunition  in 23x152 caliber...

 

This is unsurprising - existing industry trying to re-sell old technology as a solution to a new reality.  Might stop-gap the issue but likely will cost billions for something that will end up doing little. 

Unmanned systems technology's drive to miniaturize, operate with lower ISR profiles and shift to multi-domain (surface, sub-surface and aerospace) capability is moving too fast for old-gun tech to keep up.  Further, none of this solves for what we have seen repeatedly in this war: omni-C4ISR.  UAS can 1) be layer up from the ground to space, and 2) stand back at range with a decent camera and see all those vehicles in hi-res while they blast away at the sky, and 3) feed it back through an integrated C4ISR network so that PGM indirect fires can position and hammer them in seconds.  That is the issue.  The idea that we can somehow "gun-cleanse" the sky so we can get back to older forms of warfare is a fools errand that the western military industrial complex will waste mountains of taxpayers money upon.

True counter-UAS is not c-UAS at all, it is counter-C4ISR which needs to be an integrated system that is capable of eroding on opponents ability to see, communicate, move and shoot from the kinetic tip all the way back to the human decision making brain-in-the-loop (for now). 

[Huba]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

1) be layer up from the ground to space,

That's why everyone is investing in AD like crazy, from VSHORADS to exoatmospheric interceptors?

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

2) stand back at range with a decent camera and see all those vehicles in hi-res while they blast away at the sky,

Come on, gun solutions are obviously aimed at the lowest tier of UAVs/ loitering munitions. If a drone can stay out of gun range and still provide intel to the enemy ISR, it clearly deserves to eat a MANPAD or whatever constitutes your VSHORAD.

While in general it's hard to disagree that the goal is not to 'fire at drones' but deny the opponent his ISR by any means available,  I however don't see how would you imagine doing it without reliably and cost-effectively destroying his recon assets?

 

Edit:

Meanwhile, Ukrainian mobilization seems to be going well:

 

Edited November 21, 2022 by Huba

[Beleg85]

One of improvised weapons made by AFU: AA cannon shielded by probably a rotary tiller plates. Strong Star Wars vibes:

 

[kevinkin]

Counter-C4ISR is definitely the way to go long term. And it will be a back and forth technical fight. But the troops this cold morning just want to swat the flies out of the sky right now. Kinetic destruction of these unmanned assets will require investments in training and hardware. Perhaps they will always be a last line of defense if other counter measures fail. 

So here is a some maneuvering to keep the reactor under tacit Russian control - perhaps.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-top-russian-official-warns-121212946.html

Other stories on the net speak of major fighting in that sector.

 

 

 

Edited November 21, 2022 by kevinkin

[Beleg85]

Last week's update of Rochan Consulting for free in pdf form. If somebody likes tables, statistics etc. it's good material.

https://rochan-consulting.com/issue-203-14-20-november-2022-weekly-update/

It seems there are more Russian troops arriving in Belarus, but they there probably for training.

[Battlefront.com]

I've seen references to a bunch of videos purportedly showing VERY large quantities of Russian bodies around Bakhmut.  Reddit now has age restrictions that require logins, and I refuse to have an account with Reddit, so I haven't seen them.  Not that I really want to.  However, I am curious if anybody has seen them if they can confirm that there's now proof of some of the mobik slaughters we've been reading about from Russian sources.

Steve

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, FancyCat said:

Past few pages are filled to the brim with interesting stuff, my thanks to those who took the time to write or bring it up.

Winter is in full swing in Ukraine, to all posters there, may you be warm and healthy throughout.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1593823808246489089?t=getb5qsSX3TZ7YSAzeG6BQ&s=19

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1594456414583398402?t=lORAJIEozcBaCwwRG_NR0g&s=19

Hmm, looks like the embed went awry. they showed snow in Ukraine with tanks moving forward, and a MRAP having trouble in Southern Ukraine in the mud. Should not be a surprise movement on maps slows or stops.

The ground where the tanks have scraped the snow off does not look frozen hard yet.

[dan/california]

16 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I've seen references to a bunch of videos purportedly showing VERY large quantities of Russian bodies around Bakhmut.  Reddit now has age restrictions that require logins, and I refuse to have an account with Reddit, so I haven't seen them.  Not that I really want to.  However, I am curious if anybody has seen them if they can confirm that there's now proof of some of the mobik slaughters we've been reading about from Russian sources.

Steve

I have definitely seen one drone video with dozens of mobiks dead on one stretch of road outside Bakmuht.

Make that two now.

Theiner's twitter has some of the links, above is somewhat lighter material. You have to love the way the Russians will do BDA for you.

[FancyCat]

If you recall, this war has seen continued Russian aggression and distain for international institutions and in general, international law, including IHL. That Russia is assuming if true, about to fold to the IAEA, represents a turning point, I was wondering when Russia would start to curry international favor again, as that would allow Russia to at least internationally look better when accusing Ukraine of preventing peace, and in the past, I’ve been stuck dumbfounded by Russian self-sabotage at currying this favor.

 

[ZPB II]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

I've seen references to a bunch of videos purportedly showing VERY large quantities of Russian bodies around Bakhmut.  Reddit now has age restrictions that require logins, and I refuse to have an account with Reddit, so I haven't seen them.  Not that I really want to.  However, I am curious if anybody has seen them if they can confirm that there's now proof of some of the mobik slaughters we've been reading about from Russian sources.

Steve

You can get around this restriction by using the old Reddit site. Change the "www" in any reddit link into "old", so "www.reddit.com/r/foobar" becomes "old.reddit.com/r/foobar"

[Astrophel]

There is a piece in UK Guardian - usually reliable reporting - from around Kherson.  Apparently hundreds were dumped and burned by Russians along with the garbage - supposedly Russian casualties and the dumping and the burning were guarded by Russians.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/21/russians-accused-of-burning-bodies-at-kherson-landfill

[danfrodo]

41 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

If you recall, this war has seen continued Russian aggression and distain for international institutions and in general, international law, including IHL. That Russia is assuming if true, about to fold to the IAEA, represents a turning point, I was wondering when Russia would start to curry international favor again, as that would allow Russia to at least internationally look better when accusing Ukraine of preventing peace, and in the past, I’ve been stuck dumbfounded by Russian self-sabotage at currying this favor.

 

I am weaving between "this could be really good" and "what kind of Putin trick is this?"

[Zeleban]

12 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

This article has an video of excellent Russian military efficiency and performance.  This is a sign that not all of Russia's forces are total crap, however since I'm talking about 4 military police arresting 2 soldiers who refuse to go to Ukraine it probably doesn't mean much.

At least you can see that the Russians for once got their intel correct.  These Russian soldiers did not put up a fight

https://censor.net/en/photo_news/3381908/russian_army_has_started_demonstrative_arrests_of_mobilized_people_who_refuse_to_go_to_war_videophotos

Obviously this is a propaganda video to make sure mobiks and contractors alike understand that refusing to go to war means arrest.  Which is kinda funny because I think anybody refusing to fight in Ukraine is very well aware of what's going to happen to him.  They also know that the arrest is the easy part.  It's the beatings and torture after that are the real deterrent.

Steve

and here's more

 

[Zeleban]

There was a full video but I can't find it

[chrisl]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

This is unsurprising - existing industry trying to re-sell old technology as a solution to a new reality.  Might stop-gap the issue but likely will cost billions for something that will end up doing little. 

Unmanned systems technology's drive to miniaturize, operate with lower ISR profiles and shift to multi-domain (surface, sub-surface and aerospace) capability is moving too fast for old-gun tech to keep up.  Further, none of this solves for what we have seen repeatedly in this war: omni-C4ISR.  UAS can 1) be layer up from the ground to space, and 2) stand back at range with a decent camera and see all those vehicles in hi-res while they blast away at the sky, and 3) feed it back through an integrated C4ISR network so that PGM indirect fires can position and hammer them in seconds.  That is the issue.  The idea that we can somehow "gun-cleanse" the sky so we can get back to older forms of warfare is a fools errand that the western military industrial complex will waste mountains of taxpayers money upon.

True counter-UAS is not c-UAS at all, it is counter-C4ISR which needs to be an integrated system that is capable of eroding on opponents ability to see, communicate, move and shoot from the kinetic tip all the way back to the human decision making brain-in-the-loop (for now). 

From a CM perspective this is sort of ideal.  It means that for modern titles they won't have to develop ways to simulate sufficient fog of war for the player because proper Borg spotting will be the norm for one side.  The other side will simply see an empty field and watch all their stuff get blown up.

[Vanir Ausf B]

 

[danfrodo]

3 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

 

Well, that certainly explains the lack of news from the fronts.  Everyone waiting for the ground to freeze.  Soooooo weird to see this, 80 years later, for us WW2 fans.   Thanks much for sharing these vids.