How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_MonkeyKing]

18 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

WHOA!  wants to live in an evidence-based reality???  and willing to change his beliefs based on evidence?  Excellent example to those who live in a belief-based reality, where when evidence/reality conflicts w belief one simply denies reality.  

In full context more reasonable. 

More like laying the ground work to walk back the original claims. Understandable they don't want to do 180degree turn there.

[NamEndedAllen]

2 hours ago, dan/california said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/15/magazine/ukraine-trains.html

Great article!

Yes! Amazing perseverance- and mysterious failures by Russia to disrupt. Couple of quotes from the Times article:

“In ways large and small, Ukrainian National Railways, with its 230,000 employees, has been a vital player in this war, helping to keep the nation bound together as Russia tries to tear it apart. The railway has enabled the flight of refugees and of those who are internally displaced, the movement of goods and weapons and the reunions of families.”

AND:

“The longest any train has been delayed is 12 hours, when, in the spring, Russia unleashed a fusillade of missiles at railroad infrastructure, taking out a key power source. Strikes on the lines themselves can often be repaired in under 30 minutes. When bridges are hit, trains can be quickly rerouted.”

 

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

So, so what?  This is less about Russian targeting "sucking" - although their missile failure rates definitely point to that, this is about Russian decision making being 1) rigid well past the point of general rationality, and 2) built on flawed assumptions more about them than the reality on the ground.  For those who have been following this thread throughout the war I understand that this is not really news, but it does lead to a series of indicators and warnings we should be watching out for in case Russia actually figures out that its assumptions are completely broken.  However, I also suspect that they are well past the point of return regardless - too many losses and failures along with the continued corrosion of the RA means that even if they did figure it out now, it is likely already too late to change the trajectory of this war. 

Yeah, this has been brought up a bunch of times.  Even if Putin ordered all windows closed, all staircases barred, and offered nobody food and drink then said "tell me, honestly, how to fix this" it wouldn't be practical to implement.  First off, Russia would have to change it's entire system of governance to punish instead of promote corruption.  That has to be a bottom up thing that is supported by the top, not the other way around.  Not going to happen for decades.

Second, they would have to rebuild their entire economy, including getting back all the brains it has drained away over the past 11 years.  No point setting up the high tech industry that you don't have if you don't have the people to pull it off.

Third, military spending would have to dramatically change in every way.  No more wasting money on "parade" equipment but actually useful stuff.  This would mean effectively no military capabilities for 10-20 years while the other stuff got done first.  Even then it's going to cost the civilian economy big time, which doesn't seem sustainable long term.

Lastly, they have to figure out a way to get rid of sanctions.  Difficult to see them retooling their economy without outside help.

There's other things, but the basic conclusion is that even if Putin had a good plan to become 1/2 of what Russia wants itself to be, it's going to take a long time.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

Curious if they already on the Onyx list.

This will be tough to determine, but not impossible.  It is possible some of those vehicles were dragged in from elsewhere if this was indeed a ploy to distract Ukrainian targeting.

In any case, it's not a really important bunch of vehicles.  IIRC it consists of two AFVs, the rest are soft skin of not particular note.

Steve

[NamEndedAllen]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

The Ukrainians have made some mistakes related to this accident at the Polish border. I do not believe they are significant mistakes, but they are perhaps revealing. First and foremost they reveal how stressed the Ukrainian leadership is. Zelensky and his government are fighting an existential war with just barely enough support. The just barely part is because NATO is chicken$##&& and unwilling to further provoke Russia, or other than Poland and the Baltics, take the slightest strategic risk in terms of stock depletion. When something went bang in Poland, in the middle of an attack that was intended to utterly cripple Ukraine's power grid, Ukraine reacted emotionally just this once, instead of playing the rock steady good soldier. Given the possibility of finally getting FULL support instead of the carefully calculated flow they have been given. That careful calculation let's remember guarantees many more months of grinding, brutal war. And a butcher's bill for every day of it. Getting ahead of themselves with a flare of hope we might pull our heads out of our A&%$, and or consider dead and tortured Ukrainians as important as Poles or Frenchmen, was a mistake. But bleep me it was an understandable one.

Ukraine needs more support, it needs five billion a month in financial support without a desperate daily scramble to round it up. It needs two hundred more tubes of 155, and perhaps every round of 155 ammo in Europe. IT NEEDS ATACAMS, and permission to strike rail infrastructure in Russia. It needs several hundred top tier IFVs even more than it needs Leopard/Abrams. Or NATO can start firing cruise missiles in quantity and end this in three days. Or we can keep being chicken$^$# and letting Ukrainians die and freeze.

Opinion is worth what you paid, but I stand by it.

Absolutely. On a day when Ukrainians were being devastated by a deadly rain of terror missile attacks throughout the country - again! - ONE missile in their own defense may have gone off course while trying to stop an incoming Russian attack. And it IS a tragedy. Along with the other thousands of tragedies suffered through Ukraine on that day. Chapter 42 in the far too long book, “Why The Allies Must Decide Winning NOW Is The Way To End This War”.

[Haiduk]

Interesting, that Russians not only move own mobilized to existing units, but create new - theese servicemen on the video are remains of company of 359th motorized rifle regiment from Smolensk. This is new type of units almost similar to rifle regiments of LDPR, but likely having own transport or even some light armor. They say their unit has only usual infantry weapon - AK, RPG-7 and... Mosin rifles.

They tell the comamnd all time was moving them from place to place several weeks and has told them, their main task had to be "to dig". They last position was some place on LEFT bank of Dnipro. The command didn't aware them, that RIGHT bank already abandoned, so they continue to stay on positions as if nothing happened. But one day drones appeared and became to ajust intensive mortar fire from right bank at their positions. Because of this positions of onew platoon were almost completely destroyed and caused losses in personnel. Then strike drones appeared, which were dropping grenades on them, also causing losses. They can't wistand with small arms to the enemy on right bank and not having any communication neither with own battalion HQ, nor with regimental HQ decided to withdraw

 

 

Edited November 16, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

One of possible reasons of missile accident - improved Kh-101 missiles, last batches of whicn now equipped with EW counter-measuring equipment against SA-missiles. UKR missile could lost targeting or drawn away by EW work.

Condolences to Poland... Despite this is a war and many wars had border accidents, but... lives can't be turned back.  

 

Edited November 16, 2022 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

46 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Interesting, that Russians not only move own mobilized to existing units, but create new - theese servicemen on the video are remains of company of 359th motorized rifle regiment from Smolensk. This is new type of units almost similar to rifle regiments of LDPR, but likely having own transport or even some light armor. They say their unit has only usual infantry weapon - AK, RPG-7 and... Mosin rifles.

They tell the comamnd all time was moving them from place to place several weeks and has told them, their main task had to be "to dig". They last position was some place on LEFT bank of Dnipro. The command didn't aware them, thet RIGHT bank already abandoned, so they continue to stay on positions as if nothing happened. But one day drones appeared and became to ajust intensive mortar fire from right bank at their positions. Because of this positions of onew platoon were almost completely destroyed and caused losses in personnel. Then strike drones appeared, which were dropping grenades on them, also causing losses. They can't wistand with small arms to the enemy on right bank and not having any communication neither with own battalion HQ, nor with regimental HQ decided to withdraw

 

 

Interesting that the Russians continue to look to Nazi Germany for more ways to screw up this war!  Creating yet another form of unit is counter productive, even if there are practical regime reasons for it.

It is also quite humorous, and typically Russian, to not alert its units on the left bank that they may soon be under fire.  Russia is traditionally terrible at communications and there's endless examples of it in this war so far.  Just one more to make note of.  I'm sure it won't be the last.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Interesting... looks like Stremousov, the Russian appointed Deputy Governor of Kherson, was not killed in a road accident:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/14/kirill-stremousov-rise-fall-and-death-of-russia-installed-kherson-official

Looks like his car was shot up before or after being blown up.  The combo suggests to me that he was hit by partisans of Ukrainian armed forces with some sort of AT weapon.  Whether they knew who was in the car or not is probably determined by who shot up the car.  Partisans probably knew, but a deep recon unit from the Army might have just got lucky.  My money is on it being a known target and he was intercepted.

Steve

[Haiduk]

@sburke

Major Nikolay Saidov, chief of [UAV] service - UAV navigator, likely 35th motor-rifle brigade, 41st CAA, Central Military District. Was killed Nov 6th. Likely brigade's UAV control center was struck. 

  

 

Lt.colonel Aleksandr Vshyvtsev, was killed Nov 14th, motor-rifle troops, unit unknown

 

Edited November 16, 2022 by Haiduk

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

One of possible reasons of missile accident - improved Kh-101 missiles, last batches of whicn now equipped with EW counter-measuring equipment against SA-missiles. UKR missile could lost targeting or drawn away by EW work.

Condolences to Poland... Despite this is a war and many wars had border accidents, but... lives can't be turned back.  

Thank. Let's hope we will know soon what really happened there. It is entirely possible Russian will now try to program their missiles to fly alongside the border in the hopes of reaching similar outcomes, even if this one was accidental.

 

Video from inside of separatist tank, cut into 4 pieces (not a tank, a video;unfortunatelly):

 

Edited November 16, 2022 by Beleg85

[akd]

14 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Thank. Let's hope we will know soon what really happened there. It is entirely possible Russian will now try to program their missiles to fly alongside the border in the hopes of reaching similar outcomes, even if this one was accidental.

 

Video from inside of separatist tank, cut into 4 pieces (not a tank, a video;unfortunatelly):

 

120mm mortar?

[akd]

@sburke @Kinophile

Lt. Col. Vyacheslav Kabitsky, commander the 64th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade’s tank battalion:

 

[Haiduk]

21 minutes ago, akd said:

120mm mortar?

Looks like it. There was also one hit of something like RPG-7 projectile, but probably ERA has activeted. Russians use HE rounds only. 

Enemy attacked from former "Republic the Bridge" positon on the western outskirt of Pisky toward next Pervomaiske village  

[The_Capt]

4 hours ago, Astrophel said:

This is my first post so forgive me taking a moment to thank you all for your insights into this war.  This is my go-to site whenever anything happens.

The failure of the Russians to destroy the railway network in Ukraine is indeed remarkable as The_Capt says.  Early on my assumption was that Russia intends to use the railway network for their own logistics as they carry the attack further West.  Now my feeling is that Russia is in denial about the failure of their venture - as evidenced by the ongoing sacrifice of thousands of "soldiers" in Donetsk.  Somewhere in the Kremlin they still hope to use the railway to attack Poland and the Baltic States.  The Russians still hope for the big win of conquering the old Soviet Empire.  The day they turn their attention to the railways we will know they know they have lost - for now.

Chris

Well welcome to the discussion.  That is not a bad starting point, perhaps the Russians were so confident of a quick victory that they wanted to avoid infrastructure damage they would need later.  I would have thought at some point this summer they would have realized that they needed to do some defensive shaping of the battle space in order to avoid exactly what happened this Fall.  Spiteful wrecking of the railways on their way out would fit the Russia MO but one does not win wars through petulant revenge - one does it through deliberate compression of an opponents viable options spaces, eroding capability and the will to fight.

I am pretty sure by all metrics that make sense Russia has already lost this war, but perhaps you are correct, maybe when they do start hitting rail lines it will be a clear indication that they realize what we have known for months.  Of course by that point they may very well be out of long range strike capability regardless.

[Haiduk]

Last night UKR drone has struсk oil reservoir in Stal'noy Kon' settlement (in eng. "Iron horse" - poetic and template newspaper name of the tractor in early years of Soviets) in Oryol oblast. The range from nearest point of UKR border is about 170 km. Local authorities claimed this was a drone. There were already several attacks of long-range suicide drones, probably of Chineese origin, which hit Russian facilities in 120+ km zones (what exceeds Tochka-U range). Alas in that time turned out that fuel tank had only remains of fuel - about 3 tons and the fire was extinguishe during 30-40 minutes

 

 

Edited November 16, 2022 by Haiduk

[Fenris]

Nice clip (in english).

 

[Haiduk]

Today's evening some unclear explosions in Rostov-on-Don city, in the place where located 834th Air Force Training Center and Missile Troops Military Institute. Local Russian news don't post anything about this. Video is blured, so impossible to see what exactly goes on. 

Reportedly a series of explosions was heard in Dzankoy, occupied Crimea. A video, whith huge fire and detonations, which now is sharing is not from Dzhankoy. Maybe something will be clear later

Upd. Reportedly Dzhankoy airbase and power plant hit. The town without electricity

 

Edited November 16, 2022 by Haiduk

[Blazing 88's]

From airfield attack apparently....

 

[Offshoot]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Interesting... looks like Stremousov, the Russian appointed Deputy Governor of Kherson, was not killed in a road accident:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/14/kirill-stremousov-rise-fall-and-death-of-russia-installed-kherson-official

Looks like his car was shot up before or after being blown up.  The combo suggests to me that he was hit by partisans of Ukrainian armed forces with some sort of AT weapon.  Whether they knew who was in the car or not is probably determined by who shot up the car.  Partisans probably knew, but a deep recon unit from the Army might have just got lucky.  My money is on it being a known target and he was intercepted.

Steve

The Guardian did a background piece on Stremousov. Given how he was behaving, it is still quite possible it was an inside job - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/14/kirill-stremousov-rise-fall-and-death-of-russia-installed-kherson-official

"His murky death, whether indeed a genuine accident or the result of a Russian security services plan to get rid of an inconvenient loudmouth no longer useful to the authorities, will likely remain a mystery for the foreseeable future."

[dan/california]

12 hours ago, Butschi said:

e) Some kind of "demo mode". There has to be some mode for testing the missile without an actual target, at least during development. Working for a company that was involved in Dieselgate, I know how such pieces of software can end up in the final product. 

I had a truly awful week once when the company that made it did that with a ski lift motor drive. Shipped it with all the safeties locked out for factory testing. The bleeping encryption on the thing was so strong they had to fly the fix to outermost nowhere on a USB key. Total bleeper of a hassle. The purpose of the encryption was of course to prevent mistakes just like that one...

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

@sburke

Major Nikolay Saidov, chief of [UAV] service - UAV navigator, likely 35th motor-rifle brigade, 41st CAA, Central Military District. Was killed Nov 6th. Likely brigade's UAV control center was struck. 

  

 

Lt.colonel Aleksandr Vshyvtsev, was killed Nov 14th, motor-rifle troops, unit unknown

 

The number of dead Russian officers from major to colonel recently seems of the charts even by the out of control standards of this war. They are going to wind up with mobiks leading mobiks, that surely won't cause any issues.

1 hour ago, Blazing 88's said:

From airfield attack apparently....

 

I was more or less certain Ukraine would do a Shaheed 136 but better rather quickly. I am so happy to be correct. Given Russian competence at things like staying sober enough to interpret a radar screen I expect them to be quite useful. Hopefully the are turning out several hundred a month soon. 

Sort of amazing that Russia would still be basing Su-34s in Crimea given the threat level. But happily the the Russian military can't even SPELL learning....

Edited November 16, 2022 by dan/california

[sross112]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Well welcome to the discussion.  That is not a bad starting point, perhaps the Russians were so confident of a quick victory that they wanted to avoid infrastructure damage they would need later.  I would have thought at some point this summer they would have realized that they needed to do some defensive shaping of the battle space in order to avoid exactly what happened this Fall.  Spiteful wrecking of the railways on their way out would fit the Russia MO but one does not win wars through petulant revenge - one does it through deliberate compression of an opponents viable options spaces, eroding capability and the will to fight.

I am pretty sure by all metrics that make sense Russia has already lost this war, but perhaps you are correct, maybe when they do start hitting rail lines it will be a clear indication that they realize what we have known for months.  Of course by that point they may very well be out of long range strike capability regardless.

We really don't have the hard data needed to make an assessment. Probably never will.

It makes sense that the RA thought that they would have a quick victory and therefore didn't destroy a lot of infrastructure in the beginning. Then like you say we would think that they would have realized somewhere after April or so that the three day plan was out the window and they were looking at a longer war. We would think that this would change their targeting priorities and we would see transportation and communication infrastructure being targeted heavily. 

Why not? First, they still thought somehow they were going to pull off a quick win? They might not be the dumbest general staff on the face of the earth but they better hope that one doesn't die or they will be, but I really doubt a couple months into this debacle they still thought this war would be quick and easy. They were concerned for the welfare of the innocent Ukrainian public? Most evidence points to this not being on their decision board so not likely either. It wasn't possible with the weapons they have? The most probable reason.

If we look at the evidence we do have their PGM's are pretty much not PGM's. GM's maybe, but probably fall into the category of M's for the most part. Examples: They shoot at a factory complex and hit a mall. They drop 4 bombs trying to hit an ISLAND and missed with 3. They have fired hundreds of missiles at Ukraine's 20 something power plants and they are still producing power. Sure, there has been damage, but the same number of western munitions and there wouldn't be a transformer left in a substation in any rural end of the line transmission grid in Ukraine. 

About the only thing we have seen them hit on the railroads is some of the stations when they were packed with civilians. Could they even hit a bridge if they tried? I don't know the formula but if their missiles have a CEP of a couple hundred meters how many would it take to hit a 7m wide rail bridge at a choke point? Do the Russians know that even though they have proclaimed the superiority of their weapons to the west that their weapons are not capable? Therefore they don't want to shoot dozens of their vaunted cruise missiles at a target that would a) show the west their true levels of accuracy and precision and b) show their own people their true levels of accuracy and precision? If they miss a power plant and hit an apartment building the nats and public shrug it off as whatever bull the government tells them. If they missed a bridge with a dozen missiles it would be hard to explain. 

I'm going to vote that they would love to but they know they can't pull it off with their air or missile forces and keep up the lie they have told themselves, their people and the world at large. Therefore they have to go after really big targets to have any chance of success.

 

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, sross112 said:

I'm going to vote that they would love to but they know they can't pull it off with their air or missile forces and keep up the lie they have told themselves, their people and the world at large. Therefore they have to go after really big targets to have any chance of success.

Hmm, well you definitely have a point on the lack of “P” in their PGMs but rail infrastructure is more than rail lines and bridges.  Hub stations, rail yards and maintenance infrastructure have a pretty big footprint- they are large targets. I mean you can’t load a Brigades worth of vehicles and stuff from a roadside crossing.  I would think that if they can hit electric power distribution and those dam locks, they have enough precision to at least make a go at internal rail LOCs.

I am still in the “they are weak Ukrainian mouse, bug Russian bear will terrorize them into submission” camp.  Which defies all logic after March this year, however, never underestimate the ability of any military to keep on trying well after it makes sense - zombie ops.  Regardless, just another example of how not to win a war brought to us by the RA high command.   

[Beleg85]

3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Looks like it. There was also one hit of something like RPG-7 projectile, but probably ERA has activeted. Russians use HE rounds only. 

Enemy attacked from former "Republic the Bridge" positon on the western outskirt of Pisky toward next Pervomaiske village  

It's funny they actually showed how tank barrel hit a pole because of lack of driving skills and chaos.

 

A map from LostArmour showing impacts of last Lancet strikes with dates. All close to Vuhledar; they are visibly getting problematic for Ukrainians.

[LongLeftFlank]

3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Today's evening some unclear explosions in Rostov-on-Don city, in the place where located 834th Air Force Training Center and Missile Troops Military Institute. Local Russian news don't post anything about this. Video is blured, so impossible to see what exactly goes on. 

Reportedly a series of explosions was heard in Dzankoy, occupied Crimea. A video, whith huge fire and detonations, which now is sharing is not from Dzhankoy. Maybe something will be clear later

Upd. Reportedly Dzhankoy airbase and power plant hit. The town without electricity

 

Once the retreating muzhiks blow up the Zaprozh nuke plant, which they will, I hope Ukraine can spare 3 HRIMs to pop into the Kursk nuclear power station, on the coldest night of the year.....

More general question, are old fashioned SCUDs no longer available on world arms markets? This isn't the old Ukraine any more, but there have gotta still be some wheeler-dealers there who can procure a few dozen.

...Sure, the S400s might splash most of them, but like the Doolittle raid, it would put Russia's populace on notice that they are not immune. The warmongering babushkas will go, umm, ballistic (yeah, black humour), but what are they gonna do, bomb Ukrainian civilians in retaliation? 

And as a practical matter, anything that forces RU forces to spread themselves thinner (or prioritise SCUD hunting) is a net gain for Dmitro fighting at the front.... 

Keep those bastards stretched, frazzled, reacting.

[And no, they will not toss a nuke. It would actually harm Russia far worse if they did!]