How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[JonS]

33 minutes ago, Tenses said:

the crater this looked big.

An S300 weighs about 500kg, and travels at about 1000m/s. That's about 500MJ being dumped into the dirt (excluding the warhead detonating) which is equivalent to about 100kg of TNT. That's going to make a pretty decent crater just from the kinetic energy.

Edited November 15, 2022 by JonS

[NamEndedAllen]

From CNN's Tim Lister

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said about 10 million Ukrainians are without electricity Tuesday night after waves of Russian missile attacks earlier in the day.

In his daily video address, Zelensky said,

"In many cities and regions of our country, there are again emergency power cuts. About ten million Ukrainians are without electricity. Most of all — as of this moment — in Kharkiv, Zhytomyr, Kyiv and Lviv regions."

Zelensky added that Lviv and some other cities suspended the supply of heating and that there also were issues with the internet and other modes of communication.

Across much of Ukraine, temperatures are marginally above freezing. 

 

 

[Vet 0369]

46 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Or deciding SOMEDAY to actually win. As in game over, Russia is defeated and gone. No more pussyfooting that “they didn’t mean it”, or “only civilians were killed”, or they might attack us with their mighty ferocious devastated military”, “or the best, “Ukraine can attack Russians with our weapons, but only in Ukraine because Russia is sacred.” 
 

We’ve had lengthy debates about nukes here, and lengthy discussions about how much Ukrainian territory is wise to regain so as not to upset the fragile Russian psyche. We’ve applauded the delivery of much Western or compatible Soviet weapon systems to keep Ukraine fighting, while lamenting the lack of war winning weapons - even those that would only be used within Ukraine; however intrinsically bizarre that rule is. Speaking of which, Russia gets to lay waste to the largest entirely European country without compunction while Ukraine is saddled with a variety of rules it must follow in order to remain in favor. And it must demonstrate that it can have some victories too. “Don’t back slide, or show lowered morale while you are being tortured and bombed into freezing rubble, and saways remember those Brit stiff upper lips in WWII - you must too! Or we might get tired of supporting you and demand appeasement of Russia.”

 

No apologies for being blunt. This how many MONTHS of relentless war crimes, crimes against humanity,, sheer mass human suffering? And no ATACMS? No official designation of Russia as a Terrorist State? I sincerely appreciate the finely reasoned abstractions about the need for caution, carefully laid out here by our best minds. I really do. And the absolutely admirable and correct defense against demonizing all Russians, because many are not demonic and doing so lowers us to their level. 
 

But there comes a time…do you doubt it?

OK, let's put this in prespective. Putin WANTS NATO to respond. He lacks even passive support of the majority of Russian Federation populations, BUT, historically, any attack or threat to the "Rodina" causes ALL the populations to rise to the defense of the "Mother Russia!" Perhaps that's exactly what he wants. Then, he'll be able to say that Russia (and by extension he) were beaten by the evil west NATO, and not the subhuman inferior Ukraines.

 

Edited November 15, 2022 by Vet 0369

[Twisk]

I think this forum has a good handle on technical, tactical, and strategical discussion of events in the battlespace. But these discussions of NATO, Article 5, no fly zones, world politics, nuclear weapons, and so are usually weak and come to people just making gut feelings or wishes of events.

I think it would be good to step back from edge and think with a more sedate mindset about what might happen now. Or better to keep larger focus on this groups strengths

[kraze]

11 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

OK, let's put this in prespective. Putin WANTS NATO to respond. He lacks even passive support of the majority of Russian Federation populations, BUT, historically, any attack or threat to the "Rodina" causes ALL the populations to rise to the defense of the "Mother Russia!" Perhaps that's exactly what he wants. Then, he'll be able to say that Russia (and by extension he) were beaten by the evil west NATO, and not the subhuman inferior Ukraines.

 

Seriously who cares what putin or russians think?

Russia is already going through the total mobilization, they already throwing cannon fodder in droves to die at the frontlines, 700 a day.

What will russians do? Die 1000 a day? Oh no.

[Beleg85]

Ok, we have short note with some content finally.

It says missile of "russian manufacture" fell on Polish territory killing 2 persons. Muscovite ambassador was summoned for explanations.  So at least we know for 99% it was Russian stuff.

There are also rumours tomorrow PL will call a meeting owith other Fm's from NATO.

 

BTW. Russian ambassador to PL is not ordinary diplomat, but one piece of garbage that one rarely find even in Russian apparatus. Some claim he is one of three most likely candidates for FM position after Lavrov.

 

Edited November 15, 2022 by Beleg85

[OldSarge]

6 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Ok, we have short note with some content finally.

It says missile of "russian manufacture" fell on Polish territory killing 2 persons. Muscovite ambassador was summoned for explanations.  So at least we know for 99% it was Russian stuff.

There are also rumours tomorrow PL will call a meeting owith other Fm's from NATO.

 

BTW. Russian ambassador to PL is not ordinary diplomat, but one piece of garbage that one rarely find even in Russian apparatus. Some claim he is one of three most likely candidates for FM position after Lavrov.

Is tomorrow's meeting being done as a formal Article 4 request? https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_49187.htm

That could result in PL having additional AD assets moved into place.

[Beleg85]

15 minutes ago, OldSarge said:

Is tomorrow's meeting being done as a formal Article 4 request? https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_49187.htm

That could result in PL having additional AD assets moved into place.

PM Morawiecki said they are working on setting the framework if Art.4 can be applied now, so probably they plan the response with allies. Experts including foreign are working at place. He just finished his appeal, nothing new except summon to remain calm and restraint. And not get involved in Russian propaganda.

I have a feeling radar station that works 40 kms away knew perfectly well what hit the ground, but they are not saying it publicly yet.

[danfrodo]

14 minutes ago, OldSarge said:

Is tomorrow's meeting being done as a formal Article 4 request? https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_49187.htm

That could result in PL having additional AD assets moved into place.

My two cents:

Putin does NOT want fight w NATO, that's suicide for his war and probably his regime (meaning his life)

Poland gov't first priority is public relations IMO

Poland gov't probably has lots of contingency plans, but maybe this one falls in between the plans, like stray missile plan maybe didn't have loss of life, and loss of life plan assumed targeted missile.  

I think what Poland now needs to do is think about 'outcome-based' response.  What is there that Poland would like to do but could really only justify to partners with some kind of pretext?  Poland sends some long range missiles to UKR?  I just don't see Poland doing anything that would actually kill russians at this point, whether that is knocking out a bridge or hitting an ammo depot or any other attack.

[OldSarge]

4 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

My two cents:

Putin does NOT want fight w NATO, that's suicide for his war and probably his regime (meaning his life)

Poland gov't first priority is public relations IMO

Poland gov't probably has lots of contingency plans, but maybe this one falls in between the plans, like stray missile plan maybe didn't have loss of life, and loss of life plan assumed targeted missile.  

I think what Poland now needs to do is think about 'outcome-based' response.  What is there that Poland would like to do but could really only justify to partners with some kind of pretext?  Poland sends some long range missiles to UKR?  I just don't see Poland doing anything that would actually kill russians at this point, whether that is knocking out a bridge or hitting an ammo depot or any other attack.

Agreed, but Article 4 is largely an attempt by a member nation to let the other members know that there is an issue that needs some serious consideration with the possibility of an action plan. It isn't really a boots and saddles call to action. just a serious deliberation of the factual matters at hand.

Turkey used it on a number of occasions, Poland invoked it as well in 2014. In Poland's case, IIRC it brought an increase in levels of NATO units cycling through for training for Poland and Baltic nations.

[RockinHarry]

Make some extended NATO AA defense zone into Ukraine, depending on reaction time and get anything russian crap flying into it off the sky. What could any such extended range possibly be? Just bits of brain farting....

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, Twisk said:

I think this forum has a good handle on technical, tactical, and strategical discussion of events in the battlespace. But these discussions of NATO, Article 5, no fly zones, world politics, nuclear weapons, and so are usually weak and come to people just making gut feelings or wishes of events.

I think it would be good to step back from edge and think with a more sedate mindset about what might happen now. Or better to keep larger focus on this groups strengths

This. 

Poland will likely invoke Article 4, NATO will investigate and we'll go from there. Even if this does turn out to be errant Russian missiles, there isn't going to be an Article 5 declared. There will be a somewhat disproportionate response that will likely not be obvious or emotionally satisfying which underlines NATO's preponderance of force and that's it. 

 

[Beleg85]

3 hours ago, womble said:

lso, I interpreted that particular mendacity as blaming the Ukrainians for the attack. Obviously, Poland should expect no better from its ally than to be targeted during a false-flag attack meant to escalate the war.

Of course, it's nonsense. But it's the kind of sick kick the scumbags that support Putin's adventurism get off on.

Well, to understand it was no false flag one need to look at mimic and voice of officials. If anybody knowing anything about PL politics observe reactions of Duda, Morawiecki, Spokesmen and chief of National Security Council I am 100% sure they will immediatelly realize they are scarred like s**t. They didn't expected that to happen, have no idea what to do with it politically so wait for "confirmations" while keeping people in the dark on PR front.

On totally personal note, our political class is  divided more than US-one, one worst in Europe in fact; we lack any person of universal public trust and normal personal integrity like, for example, Finnish president Niinisto. Such person would be priceless now, to calm population down; but instead Morawiecki is talking like bored village post official, people are uncertain how to behave and within a week we will see a surge of national machismo by PiS that will be entirely for domestic use. While international repercussions will probably be symbolic. Unless, of course, it was indeed deliberate. Actually, judging by amount of fear by main officials may point to last conclusion...because what happen if RU indeed missile deliberatelly hit NATO country?

Forget about those memes with winged hussars, Poles saddling horses and joining war just like that. It's not realistic at all; people hates muscovites, but our political class does not play in the same league as Putin when comes to gravity of international responses. Cautious Art. 4 will probably be main response.

Edited November 16, 2022 by Beleg85

[NamEndedAllen]

59 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

Putin WANTS NATO to respond.

SERIOUSLY doubt that speculation stated as fact. Certainly by now both his military chiefs as well as his inner circle realize the enormous disparity between NATO’s huge weapon and troop superiority. Even *without* NATO doing much more than dipping a toe in the conflict, from afar. 

Nonetheless, this might be a time to try to layout the big reach of the Forum’s thinking in some sort of framework. One powerful way to see which way the wind is blowing is scenario planning. I value scenario planning because it keeps four possible futures in view at all times, rather than pinning all one’s attention on one preferred (biased in some way) outcome. I hired firms to assist university and national news network in their executive/board planning work.  It offers a framework for placing the blizzard of weekly events into relationships and becomes a better… 

TEA LEAVES READER!

Scenario planning is simply telling stories about the future. Throwing out all kinds of possibilities, from mundane to outlandish.  Like we have here. Ukraine takes back all its territories. Russia collapses into feuding warlord territories. Nuclear war breaks out between NATO and Russia. Or a grinding, endless stalemate develops and the Western Allies get tired of pouring money and equipment into it. Futures are stories. Choose four! And decide what the two biggest uncertainties are that could influence these to actually happen.

These are Critical Uncertainties. They are divergent thinking, brainstorming, imagining. But based on solid knowledge of matters about the question at hand. Like the knowledge base of the vast experience on this forum. They become our “scenario logics”: two axes that differentiate our four stories about possible futures. For example, one axis could be direct NATO/Russian confrontation, from none to total war. The other axis could be Ukraine Winning - Losing. The Uncertainties are key, and in practice would emerge from considered discussion and debate, and then voting for the top two.

The meat is the “critical indicators” for each future:
*How much sophisticated military aid does Ukraine get?                                                                    *Putin’s political standing.                                                                                                                         * * *USA election/political outcomes.                                                                                                       * * * *Specific battlefield events.

Lastly, watch for events - early indicators that put more or less weight on each indicator in one quadrant (future) or another. In this way, we aren’t led by the nose by each day’s news flood. A picture begins to emerge. A story unfolds in more detail A different one fades.

Scenario planning serves as a framework for the plethora of events we see, including the external forces, beyond Ukraine and Russia. What to think of each one, such as China’s Xi and Biden together, warning Russia not to use nuclear weapons. Kherson surrendering. Mobilization. No ATACMS, no Western tanks, Kerch bridge. USA elections. And now, missiles killing civilians in Poland.

[Beleg85]

3 hours ago, Twisk said:

I think this forum has a good handle on technical, tactical, and strategical discussion of events in the battlespace. But these discussions of NATO, Article 5, no fly zones, world politics, nuclear weapons, and so are usually weak and come to people just making gut feelings or wishes of events.

I think it would be good to step back from edge and think with a more sedate mindset about what might happen now. Or better to keep larger focus on this groups strengths

You are right about necessity of remaining calm, but I beg to disagree about focus of this board. This is a genocidal conflict started entirely on imperial whim of aging Tsar wiith possibly grevious consequences. It is played on globus, not map only, with biggest actors on the planet and tocuhing deeply historical issues. One simply cannot view it through narrow lense of equipment, tactics and strategy only; that was in fact a mistake made by so many leading military specialists on the topic, which led to to overestimate Russian capablities and ignore Ukrainian ones. War is so embedded in  politics, anthropology and culture that we constantly need to update our knowledge about this "broader" view; otherwise we may simply fail to understand it.

6 hours ago, Haiduk said:

90 cruise missiles (mostly Kh-101/Kh-555 and about dozen Kalibrs from Black Sea) and 10 Shakheds launched in three waves. Missiles flew from different directions, i.e through Belarus.

73 missiles and 10 Shakheds shot down

15 power infrastructure objects hit mostly in western regions.

Looks like very good shot/downed ratio. But wasn't Black Sea Fleet supposedly out of missile carriers? Or it was by planes only?

 

ED:

 

Edited November 16, 2022 by Beleg85

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, billbindc said:

This. 

Poland will likely invoke Article 4, NATO will investigate and we'll go from there. Even if this does turn out to be errant Russian missiles, there isn't going to be an Article 5 declared. There will be a somewhat disproportionate response that will likely not be obvious or emotionally satisfying which underlines NATO's preponderance of force and that's it. 

 

Another "this" to add to this "this".

Poland is smart.  Very smart.  They won't ask for Article 5 unless they think, for sure, that Russia did it deliberately.  Given only one missile hit Poland, it was part of a huge wave of missions on Ukrainian targets, Russian's are running out of their better missiles, and even those suck most likely means this was accidental.  No way is anybody going to risk WW3 by overreacting to a single accidental incident.  Poland wouldn't even try IMHO.

We've talked about Russia likely not wanting NATO to be directly involved as it is an instant defeat for them.  Poking Poland would be a very bad idea in that case.

However, accident or not there will be a response.  I would not rule out a no-fly zone over Ukraine as it is appropriate for the circumstances.  Kinda like taking a toy away from a child after it hurts someone.  And if Russia challenges it, well then things are going to get very interesting very quickly.

Steve

[dan/california]

4 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

People in villages along the border freak out (I know, just called family there), some want to run away. Gov. told literally nothing new and actually raised echo for speculations. Spokesman is panicked (not his league). "Let's keep calm and wait till Prime Minister confere with his cabinet, Goodbye. "...like anyone in the cabinet who isn't already there would have anything to say on the matter. People are left without guidance.

Would like to believe being 3 option and delibarete silence. But it is not, they don't know what to do so wait till crises pass away. Typical for this government, btw.

...Oh, and I see panickers aound the world already scrammble NATO jets from non-existing airfields. Splendid...

Your Polish and I am not, your opinion of the Polish Government carries at least eighteen times more weight than mine. I was also less than than impressed with the current Polish Government right up until 2/25. But since then, my impression, from the outermost suburbs of Seattle, is that they have done a good job supporting Ukraine. I have no opinion on their current internal communication strategy, or much of anything else. Except they have ordered an enormous new army. I am sure they are playing for a wartime, rally around the flag boost. But any government would, hopefully they lose an election shortly after Russia gets booted out of Ukraine. It happened to Churchill, it can happen to anyone.

[Beleg85]

19 minutes ago, dan/california said:

But since then, my impression, from the outermost suburbs of Seattle, is that they have done a good job supporting Ukraine. I have no opinion on their current internal communication strategy, or much of anything else. Except they have ordered an enormous new army. I am sure they are playing for a wartime, rally around the flag boost. But any government would, hopefully they lose an election shortly after Russia gets booted out of Ukraine. It happened to Churchill, it can happen to anyone.

They are largely guided by NATO and (fortunatelly) Americans. To have mature sense of foreign/defence policy one needs tradition of sovereign funcioning state for generations, not just several years- history didn't gave us this luxury, unfortunatelly. Compare it with for example French or British.

23 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Poland is smart.  Very smart.  They won't ask for Article 5 unless they think, for sure, that Russia did it deliberately.  Given only one missile it, it was part of a huge wave of missions on Ukrainian targets, Russian's are running out of their better missiles, and even those suck most likely means this was accidental.  No way is anybody going to risk WW3 by overreacting to a single accidental incident.  Poland wouldn't even try IMHO.

I don't think it is that smart . As I wrote before several times, people are almost genetically afraid of true war here so keeping us out of real conflict is a fundament. That's why we will see a lot of very, very cautious moves by PL and NATO, regardless what hit there.

What troubles me that many Ukrainian politicians including Kuleba publically invested heavily in a thought it was not their S-300 having malfunction. If in the end it will happen to be not true, their credibility can tank low. Perhaps a lot what is happening now is because time is needed to construct sensible PR strategy to counter Russian propaganda int this regard.

Edited November 16, 2022 by Beleg85

[FancyCat]

I doubt that this will wound the Ukrainians a lot in public opinion. End of the day, Ukraine is trying to fend off hundreds of missiles and drones that are bringing Ukraine to the dark and cold. As long as Ukraine apologizes to Poland and Poles, I don't see why Poland won't understand why this happened.

[Battlefront.com]

42 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

I don't think it is that smart . As I wrote before several times, people are almost genetically afraid of true war here so keeping us out of real conflict is a fundament. That's why we will see a lot of very, very cautious moves by PL and NATO, regardless what hit there.

And that is what I mean by "smart".  The official statements made by senior Polish government officials, including Duda, are the sort of calm, measured, action that I associate with the correct behavior for the moment.

42 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

What troubles me that many Ukrainian politicians including Kuleba publically invested heavily in a thought it was not their S-300 having malfunction. If in the end it will happen to be not true, their credibility can tank low. Perhaps a lot what is happening now is because time is needed to construct sensible PR strategy to counter Russian propaganda int this regard.

Biden stated that it was of Russian origin and likely did not originate from Russia.  This probably means it was launched from a Russian aircraft over Belarusian airspace.  Which puts this into a bigger deal than if it came from Russian territory.  Now there's two aggressor nations culpable instead of just one.

Steve

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Another "this" to add to this "this".

Poland is smart.  Very smart.  They won't ask for Article 5 unless they think, for sure, that Russia did it deliberately.  Given only one missile hit Poland, it was part of a huge wave of missions on Ukrainian targets, Russian's are running out of their better missiles, and even those suck most likely means this was accidental.  No way is anybody going to risk WW3 by overreacting to a single accidental incident.  Poland wouldn't even try IMHO.

We've talked about Russia likely not wanting NATO to be directly involved as it is an instant defeat for them.  Poking Poland would be a very bad idea in that case.

However, accident or not there will be a response.  I would not rule out a no-fly zone over Ukraine as it is appropriate for the circumstances.  Kinda like taking a toy away from a child after it hurts someone.  And if Russia challenges it, well then things are going to get very interesting very quickly.

Steve

I think we are a *very* long way away from a no fly zone at this point. The first rule of managing escalation is to maintain proportionality. A no fly zone is not proportional in any way with a couple of errant missiles and it would be an excellent way to create splits in support for Ukraine. I know that's an unsatisfying conclusion on a lot of levels but the reality is that, especially with Ukraine appearing to be steadily winning, nobody wants to induce a reduction in support for Kyiv or an uncontrolled spiral out of control with Moscow.

 

[NamEndedAllen]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

However, accident or not there will be a response.  I would not rule out a no-fly zone over Ukraine as it is appropriate for the circumstances.  Kinda like taking a toy away from a child after it hurts someone.  And if Russia challenges it, well then things are going to get very interesting very quickly.

Agree thoroughly. We are far far from the beginning stages of this war. All parties know a LOT more about one another, than right after the start. It’s important not to excuse the fighting spilling over into NATO nations, with no unmistakable and serious corrective response. No, of course not absurd red herrings - not declaring war, not air strikes in Russia. Those are straw men type arguments. Yes, accidents happen. But when accidents happen, blame is assessed, and penalties imposed. You are the driver, you are responsible and will be accountable for reckless driving, losing control of the vehicle, carelessness. Especially in fatal accidents. Plus, context. This is Russia trying to rain hell on civilians in their homes and workplaces. Russia has a deep responsibility to keep control over their weapons. If they fail, they need more than some harsh words. They killed Poles, in their own country. And we will never really know whether it was an accident. Some US retired military officers on the cable networks tonight have described this as deliberate, deniable, testing of NATO.
 

So, what makes sense? I agree, no fly zones are a big escalation. NATO would have to cleanse the zone of all Russian SAM and other platforms that could bring down NATO jets - even before any potential ATA encounters. OTOH, long range missiles/artillery. Finally. Just in case of any more accidents. ATACMS. More SAM, defens systems and now. And Russia must pay the family or families who lost loved ones for their losses. Lastly, a clear message about the consequences of any more “accidents”. 

 

[dan/california]

43 minutes ago, billbindc said:

I think we are a *very* long way away from a no fly zone at this point. The first rule of managing escalation is to maintain proportionality. A no fly zone is not proportional in any way with a couple of errant missiles and it would be an excellent way to create splits in support for Ukraine. I know that's an unsatisfying conclusion on a lot of levels but the reality is that, especially with Ukraine appearing to be steadily winning, nobody wants to induce a reduction in support for Kyiv or an uncontrolled spiral out of control with Moscow.

 

 

4 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Agree thoroughly. We are far far from the beginning stages of this war. All parties know a LOT more about one another, than right after the start. It’s important not to excuse the fighting spilling over into NATO nations, with no unmistakable and serious corrective response. No, of course not absurd red herrings - not declaring war, not air strikes in Russia. Those are straw men type arguments. Yes, accidents happen. But when accidents happen, blame is assessed, and penalties imposed. You are the driver, you are responsible and will be accountable for reckless driving, losing control of the vehicle, carelessness. Especially in fatal accidents. Plus, context. This is Russia trying to rain hell on civilians in their homes and workplaces. Russia has a deep responsibility to keep control over their weapons. If they fail, they need more than some harsh words. They killed Poles, in their own country. And we will never really know whether it was an accident. Some US retired military officers on the cable networks tonight have described this as deliberate, deniable, testing of NATO.
 

So, what makes sense? I agree, no fly zones are a big escalation. NATO would have to cleanse the zone of all Russian SAM and other platforms that could bring down NATO jets - even before any potential ATA encounters. OTOH, long range missiles/artillery. Finally. Just in case of any more accidents. ATACMS. More SAM, defens systems and now. And Russia must pay the family or families who lost loved ones for their losses. Lastly, a clear message about the consequences of any more “accidents”. 

 

Both of you gentlemen have orders of magnitude more proximity to decision makers, and perhaps more information, than I do. What is your opinion of extend the ground based air defense bubble from Poland to as far into Ukraine as is technically feasible. Push radars and launchers right the Polish Ukrainian border, and provide coverage as deep into Ukraine as as possible. It would let Ukraine move at least some assets east to increase the density of the defenses there. It would not require putting pilots at risk or any direct attacks on Russian forces other than the missiles they are shooting at innocent people. Obviously it would irritate the Russians to no end, and it is a fairly large step diplomatically. Of course that is the point.

[FancyCat]

Again, shouldn't be too big a issue as long as Ukraine apologizes, ensures proper payment, etc. Friendly fire happens.

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

23 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Again, shouldn't be too big a issue as long as Ukraine apologizes, ensures proper payment, etc. Friendly fire happens.

 

Ukrainians humiliated themselves with the FM and PM statements. Lets see how they walk these back.

If they didn't jump the gun yesterday, today there would have been the angles of "we have old ****ty missiles, give use new ones" and "the Russians are firing their missiles along the UKR-POL border, so Russia is at fault, this was inevitable".

I say pretty small change it was a Russian fired missile at this point. All that remains to be known to be sure is the type of missile.