How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Kinophile]

Another 12 ceasars.  

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

Khodakovsky summarizes the reasons for the unsuccessful attack on Pavlovka

In spite of the victory, this postt says: beware! There are still intelligent, capable officers in the Russian Army, and eventually they will find themselves in charge as their leaders turn to them in desperation.

Of what? well, we have about 1700 pages of discussion on that.

But it is fatuous to presume they will turn their guns on the people (in Moscow) they ought to be blaming. In contrast, sadly, its the dedicated professionals who tend to go down with the ship while the rats escape.

[The_MonkeyKing]

smells like a dam about to blow to me:

Edited November 15, 2022 by The_MonkeyKing

[LongLeftFlank]

Yes, that's the high water mark, maybe (season adjusted). The flood quickly ebbs again, leaving lots of property damage in that zone, but probably no military losses worth speaking of.

...And then you're right back where you began. Except Russians have committed their latest act of scorched earth vandalism to add to the 'reparations' tab. The cession of Krasnodar oblast to Ukraine ought to about square it. Maybe throw in Rostov as an 'autonomous Cossack Republic' (buffer zone) or sumfink.

...The Muscovites can now pay hefty tolls for use of "Novoukraina" port (formerly Novorossiysk).

[Lethaface]

On 11/13/2022 at 6:32 PM, Battlefront.com said:

Here's a chuckle for a Sunday.  It is from last night's Saturday Night Live host monologue by Dave Chappelle.  I'm posting it here because it's funny, but also it shows how Ukraine's ability to fight is perceived in the US.  Yet another example of how Ukraine and its allies have achieved a decisive victory in the information war against Russia:

Steve

P.S.  the whole monologue was hilarious

Thanks for the link!

Had the pleasure of watching him live a couple of months back in Dam, well worth it imo.

[Beleg85]

Another big wave of missiles over Kiyv, Kharkiv + other regional centers.

@Zeleban , @Haiduk and other Ukrainians, take care of yourselves, folks. These strikes were precisely predicted before, but Russians are visibly pissed off after Bali meatings. They may be loosing geopolitical ground.

 

[Harmon Rabb]

38 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Another big wave of missiles over Kiyv, Kharkiv + other regional centers.

@Zeleban , @Haiduk and other Ukrainians, take care of yourselves, folks. These strikes were precisely predicted before, but Russians are visibly pissed off after Bali meatings. They may be loosing geopolitical ground.

 

I know this continued terror bombing campaign is mostly for internal propaganda purposes. So Putin can still look like a "strong man" in front of the bloodthirsty RU Nats.

But from a Western perspective it looks like RU is doing everything in its power to prove that President Zelenskyy is right, that Russia is a dangerous terrorist state and Ukraine needs more military support to defend itself.

My heart goes out to all the innocent Ukrainian civilians that are suffering because of this madness.

[Beleg85]

21 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

But from a Western perspective it looks like RU is doing everything in its power to prove that President Zelenskyy is right, that Russia is a dangerous terrorist state and Ukraine needs more military support to defend itself.

Yes, I also don't really get this attitude. Giving swinging neutral states and sceptics of help to Ukraine literally blow in the face. It is basically self-harming right now, especially after Lavrov left G20 like beaten dog.

Ukrainians predicted several days ago such massive strike between 14-16 Nov will happen anyway, perhaps data acquisition took Muscovites so long. But it seem to be conserved as effector in negotiations.

[kevinkin]

While not a sexy topic, after this war is over, I will be interested in how Ukraine adapted their TO&E and built various formations given the influx of western support. Some of the most agile thinkers can take a seemingly chaotic situations and turn it to their advantage. This seems to apply to all walks of life and this aspect of the current war will probably be inspiring to those that study organizational effectiveness under stressful conditions. The RA is just throwing pasta against the wall. The UA is sharping knives first and then piercing the joints that hold up the wall. 

[Taranis]

"Air Force Command of Ukraine: Russia launched about 100 missiles against Ukraine today, including 20 which believed to be in the air as of now. Some missiles were shot down. Attack is more massive than attack on 10th October"

https://t.me/suspilnenews/15773

[kevinkin]

Final paragraph sums up the article in a depressing way. It's as if some analysts can't imagine Ukraine enduring a winter under periodic strikes on their infrastructure. Easy to think that way holed up by a fire in your warm Georgetown townhouse:

 https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2022/11/15/putins_october_grom_strategic_nuclear_exercise_864944.html

Other articles say Russia is running out of missiles which is all they really have to determine the war's outcome. 

[danfrodo]

6 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Final paragraph sums up the article in a depressing way. It's as if some analysts can't imagine Ukraine enduring a winter under periodic strikes on their infrastructure. Easy to think that way holed up by a fire in your warm Georgetown townhouse:

 https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2022/11/15/putins_october_grom_strategic_nuclear_exercise_864944.html

Other articles say Russia is running out of missiles which is all they really have to determine the war's outcome. 

I wish UKR could find some ways to start attacking RU electricity.  Would be great to have Moscow's power grid sabotaged and folks there w/o power for a few days at a time.  

[dan/california]

The new Precision Strike Missile for the the Himars would do nicely. Lights out in Kyiv=lights out in Moscow, and this #&$$ would stop. That or every time Russia does one of these terror attacks NATO fires 200-300 cruise missiles at every significant Russian Target in Ukraine. A KILOMETER of the Kerch bridge bridge in the water, and every other rail bridge in Russian occupied Ukraine would also make a nice neat statement.

Or we can just start systematically evacuating Ukrainian cities.

[akd]

I’m sorry, but this is funny:

 

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, kevinkin said:

Final paragraph sums up the article in a depressing way. It's as if some analysts can't imagine Ukraine enduring a winter under periodic strikes on their infrastructure. Easy to think that way holed up by a fire in your warm Georgetown townhouse:

 https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2022/11/15/putins_october_grom_strategic_nuclear_exercise_864944.html

Other articles say Russia is running out of missiles which is all they really have to determine the war's outcome. 

The idea that Putin’s nuclear threats ‘seem to be working’ would be a surprise to the Russians at this point. I’d put RealClearDefense into the same bucket RealClearPolitics goes in: a conservative but formerly respectable outlet that has clearly decided to choose advocacy and politics over data.

[dan/california]

19 minutes ago, akd said:

I’m sorry, but this is funny:

 

Definitely a god level drone operator. You would think the Russians would get the idea that this isn't working out and go home.

[Huba]

Holy ****! 

 

[Beleg85]

Rumours are that at least 2 rockets fall on small village in Hrubieszów district, there are casualties. Still uncomfirmed for 100%.

Lets wait for PM Defence Comitee response. Spokesmen asked to wait tll confirmtion.

Also note these could be debris or even Ukrainian AA rocket.

 

Edited November 15, 2022 by Beleg85

[Mindestens]

It seems one of the rockets launched today by Russians landed in Poland near the ukrainian border killing two people.

Prime minister Morawiecki called an urgent meeting.

Sources: 

 

 

 

 

Edited November 15, 2022 by Mindestens

[kevinkin]

5 minutes ago, billbindc said:

The idea that Putin’s nuclear threats ‘seem to be working’ would be a surprise to the Russians at this point. I’d put RealClearDefense into the same bucket RealClearPolitics goes in: a conservative but formerly respectable outlet that has clearly decided to choose advocacy and politics over data.

Well you can have an opinion based on the same data other people have and be proven wrong. Is the writer an advocate of Putin? I would have to see the rest of their writings. I would doubt it. It's nearly impossible come down on one side of an issue and not be call a lacky by the other these days. The world lacks any nuisance. 

Here's the data:

"Russian nuclear threats seem to be working. According to U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, the U.S. won’t provide Ukraine with long-range missiles (i.e., over 300-km which are hardly long-range) because, “…while a key goal of the United States is to support and defend Ukraine, another key goal is to ensure that we do not end up in a circumstance where we are heading down the road toward a third world war.”

The writer's info is coming from the Biden Admin. A conservative sort of agreeing with Jake. Maybe refreshing. 

[danfrodo]

1 minute ago, Beleg85 said:

Rumours are that at least 2 rockets fall on small village in Hrubieszów district, there are casualties. Still uncomfirmed 90%.

Lets wait for PM Defence Comitee response.

 

OMFG.  what will Poland do?  If no dead or wounded Poland could mostly ignore it, but RU just murdered two Polish citizens.  Oh my oh my.  And what can Poland (reasonably) do?  

[Beleg85]

3 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

OMFG.  what will Poland do?  If no dead or wounded Poland could mostly ignore it, but RU just murdered two Polish citizens.  Oh my oh my.  And what can Poland (reasonably) do?  

Still too early to tell, ignore most OSINT account, they exchange info frome ahc other.

Let's wait for official response.

It was bound too happne anyway sooner or later. IF true, we may even speed up supplies.

This account with good infor inside tell to be calm and wait; perhaps situation is not like media say.

 

Edited November 15, 2022 by Beleg85

[Beleg85]

RU missile or Ukrianian rocket debris with fail self-destruction.

ED: We still wait for confirmation, but too many serious factors seem to indicate it was indeed a missile or debris and people were killed. Village is 9-10 km from the border, so not that close actually.

Edited November 15, 2022 by Beleg85

[billbindc]

23 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

RU missile or Ukrianian rocket debris with fail self-destruction.

ED: We still wait for confirmation, but too many serious factors seem to indicate it was indeed a missile or debris and people were killed. Village is 9-10 km from the border, so not that close actually.

US officials are confirming it was a Russian missile. They specified two actually.

[Letter from Prague]

I wonder if the Russians did it on purpose. After attack on NordStream, submarine cables and various other acts of terrorism, it is time for further test how far they can push the NATO.