How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

Ukrainian army doesn't enter to Kherson in big mass. All what we have seen on the videos were small recon groups. As if enough number of rearguard Russian troops, which hadn't time to cross a river can sneak to this time in city districts, close to Dnipro. Russians can be weared in civil clothes and come out with small gropus. 

GUR issued an appeal to Russian soldiers, which left in Kherson, that they to surrender.

On the video soldier of 142nd SOF Center in the center of Kherson 

 

Edited November 11, 2022 by Haiduk

[TheVulture]

I think most people, given the choice between street fighting in Kherson with the possibility of killing and capturing many Russians, versus liberating the city with fighting within the city, but letting the majority of Russians escape, would choose the option that avoided the city fighting.

The cost in extra military casualties, civilian casualties and damage to the city isn't worth what you'd gain.

[Splinty]

I'm starting to wonder if we are seeing the first signs of the RA trying to have something of a military left when all this is over. This is all just speculation, but at this point in the war, some Russian general somewhere has to be thinking about trying to preserve what little conventional strength they have left.

[chrisl]

7 minutes ago, poesel said:

I guess there was an agreement between Ukraine and Russia over not fighting in Kherson. If not explicit, then implicit.
Russia could have fought there, but didn't want to lose the kind of troops that could have fought.
Ukraine would have liked to fight those troops, but not in the city of Kherson.

This is, all things considered, a great victory for Ukraine.

I can see Ukraine choosing to let the RA slip out the back rather than destroying Kherson.  

Post US election Russia isn't going to be getting much, if any relief from western aid to Ukraine, so they needed to bug out before winter.

The UA could have plastered the shores at the ferry crossings to destroy retreating RA units, but that would have stopped the retreat and pinned them in the city.  Then the choice would be for the UA to go in (bloody) or to drag out the siege into winter (brutal for civilians). All those Russians who slipped out can be HIMARSed later in open, or at least less dense areas, where a major city won't be destroyed in the process.  Or not.  How Ukraine did this is also a message to us in the west: "The UA is about retaking Ukraine, not vengeance, and if Russians leave quietly we can let them live."

Now if Ukraine can finish off the Kerch bridge and get at least fire control over the land bridge, Russia might give up on Crimea.

[danfrodo]

5 minutes ago, chrisl said:

How Ukraine did this is also a message to us in the west: "The UA is about retaking Ukraine, not vengeance, and if Russians leave quietly we can let them live."

Great point I hadn't thought of.  UKR letting world know this.  But also letting RU soldiers know that leaving means living. 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

Compare this to when the Russian's "liberated" Kherson

Steve

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

As did the French. It's a lamentable fact the French fought pretty hard in a losing fight only to have that forgotten soon after.

Yeah, my mistake.  The French participation in Dunkirk and their burning desire to keep on fighting is often overlooked.  Even by people like me who know better!

Steve

[FancyCat]

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

38 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

One way to look at time in warfare is the old fashion Boyd cycle first described in relation to air warfare. The OODA loop is the cycle of observe–orient–decide–act. This, when you think about it, has been around a long time at the different levels of combat, business, and most all endeavors where information is incomplete at the start of interactions between opposing interests. Whether he loop favors the offense or defense in warfare depends on a lot of technical and human factors. Over time, the pendulum swings back and forth. I might have better mobility, but little info to act on. I might have no mobility and a lot of info to act on. The devil is in the details between the two extremes. Striking the right balance during active combat is difficult since the major systems are put in place years ahead of time. Yet, armed forces can adapt /tweak with what they have and/or can produce quickly.      

All good points.  My thinking is that for now, at least in what we're seeing in Ukraine 2014-2022, is that the defender has a distinct advantage for a large number of reasons.  Offensive doctrine will need to adapt if it wishes to retain traditional envelopment/destruction outcomes.  Something (likely plural) is interfering with long held and justifiable expectations.

As someone here already put it, looks like the only good thing Russia is any good at is retreating.  Well, that and humiliating losses.  They've demonstrated a knack for that too.

Steve

[kraze]

3 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Just a snippet of old Dougie fantasizing about killing a king that stopped making rain flowing and cows giving milk...

 

"we give the ruler absolute fulness of power"

I mean he is not wrong and says what an average russian thinks and what's important to understand - dictatorships are in fact much more 'democratic' than democracies, because they absolutely have to answer to demands of all (or at least absolute majority) people, whereas democracies would never have a ruler that represents 80-90% of people. Hardly even a half much of the time.

And what this also means is that an average russian (as also evidenced by their cries full of pain elsewhere and anywhere) becomes disappointed with the ruler because he doesn't seem to follow people's wishes. And in a dictatorship-based state only rulers with 80-90% support can ever stay alive.

"

"Surrendered at Kherson, gonna surrender at Moscow"

Edited November 11, 2022 by kraze

[Battlefront.com]

26 minutes ago, Splinty said:

I'm starting to wonder if we are seeing the first signs of the RA trying to have something of a military left when all this is over. This is all just speculation, but at this point in the war, some Russian general somewhere has to be thinking about trying to preserve what little conventional strength they have left.

That is quite possible.  It certainly fits in with Russia's apparent keeping the bulk of the partially mobilized and promises for not deploying Fall conscripts.  Maybe they woke up one day and realized there wasn't much left to terrorize the rest of the Near Abroad and threaten NATO with.

Steve

[Beleg85]

11 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Compare this to when the Russian's "liberated" Kherson

Steve

Almost a pitty Stremousov with his village poetry is no longer among living, he wouldn't like it.

28 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Ukrainian army doesn't enter to Kherson in big mass. All what we have seen on the videos were small recon groups. As if enough number of rearguard Russian troops, which hadn't time to cross a river can sneak to this time in city districts, close to Dnipro. Russians can be weared in civil clothes and come out with small gropus. 

GUR issued an appeal to Russian soldiers, which left in Kherson, that they to surrender.

Good point, I think Hanna Malyar announced it just lately regular units will also come in. I am very curious what-and whom- Russians left on the bridgehead.

If Russian withdrawal is indeed soem sort of implicit agreement between RU/UA I can bet Ukrainains would not like it.

[Battlefront.com]

25 minutes ago, chrisl said:

I can see Ukraine choosing to let the RA slip out the back rather than destroying Kherson.  

Post US election Russia isn't going to be getting much, if any relief from western aid to Ukraine, so they needed to bug out before winter.

The UA could have plastered the shores at the ferry crossings to destroy retreating RA units, but that would have stopped the retreat and pinned them in the city.  Then the choice would be for the UA to go in (bloody) or to drag out the siege into winter (brutal for civilians). All those Russians who slipped out can be HIMARSed later in open, or at least less dense areas, where a major city won't be destroyed in the process.  Or not.  How Ukraine did this is also a message to us in the west: "The UA is about retaking Ukraine, not vengeance, and if Russians leave quietly we can let them live."

Now if Ukraine can finish off the Kerch bridge and get at least fire control over the land bridge, Russia might give up on Crimea.

It is absolutely possible that Russia brokered some sort of secret accord with Ukraine to exchange a "clean" retreat for not blowing everything up in the process.  Possible.

It could also be that Ukraine did the math and figured it was just better to let them go than it was to try and destroy them on the right bank.  We have speculated about this for months now because Ukraine could have been doing more to isolate Russian forces than it actually did. 

Factoring into either might be Ukraine's plans for what comes next. 

Whatever the case is, like the rest of you I'm very happy with the result.  Just as I was with the Russian retreat from northern Ukraine.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Good point, I think Hanna Malyar announced it just lately regular units will also come in. I am very curious what-and whom- Russians left on the bridgehead.

I doubt Russia got everybody evacuated.  That would have likely needed an overt cease fire, announced and publicly agreed to by both sides.  So I agree the battle for Kherson isn't 100% complete as of right now.  However, it is effectively over.

4 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

If Russian withdrawal is indeed soem sort of implicit agreement between RU/UA I can bet Ukrainains would not like it.

I'm not so sure.  The alternative is Kherson looking like Bucha or Irpin, Izyum or Kupyansk, or any other number of small villages wiped from the map.  In fact, I wonder if Ukrainians would be upset by the opposite.  Don't you think a large chunk of the Ukrainian people would be upset to have Kherson destroyed and 1000 friendly casualties over weeks of hard fighting, then finding out that Zelensky rejected a way to avoid it?

Steve

[billbindc]

 

In the bigger picture of global opinion, diplomacy, morale and aid this is a much bigger victory than a vicious street battle in a festung Kherson. That's *especially* true if it turns out that Russia negotiated giving up territory with the Ukrainian government. 

[Beleg85]

17 minutes ago, kraze said:

we give the ruler absolute fulness of power"

I mean he is not wrong and says what an average russian thinks and what's important to understand - dictatorships are in fact much more 'democratic' than democracies, because they absolutely have to answer to demands of all (or at least absolute majority) people, whereas democracies would never have a ruler that represents 80-90% of people. Hardly even a half much of the time.

And what this also means is that an average russian (as also evidenced by their cries full of pain elsewhere and anywhere) becomes disappointed with the ruler because he doesn't seem to follow people's wishes. And in a dictatorship-based state only rulers with 80-90% support can ever stay alive.

Well, sort of he is. He talks about rituals of power observed among many peoples, not only Indo-Europeans, of religious limits to power of the king/tsar. These societies lacked real social contract and could not influence politics in normal way, so the pressure for change could theoretically be realized through strange, old forgotten customs.

Except such rituals were almost always fake and symbolic; in reality there was hardly ever a funcioning community mechanism of removal of sacred ruler who lost his charisma by such rituals, unless he was killed in palace coup or direct revolution. Of course religiously troubled and long-time sick mind of Dugin reserve such right to "broke the empty vessel" that ruler has become, delegating it to "sacred Russian people"....but it is just empty talk of old fool.

In reality Muscovites hardly ever revolted against their rulers. And probability he may say hallo to other Russian turbo-patriots who mistook Putin geopolitical machinations with patriotism increased. Yes,that is  including his daughter.

Edited November 11, 2022 by Beleg85

[Taranis]

"Russian military volunteers and civilians undergo shooting training at a shooting range in the Rostov region on November 11, 2022. STRINGER / AFP"


"Ukrainian soldiers take part in a training exercise organized by members of the Joint Expeditionary Force, in the northeast of England, on November 9, 2022. ANDY COMMINS / AFP"
*These two photos above alone show the difference in training and its quality between the Russians and the Ukrainians.




"In Siversk, a city in eastern Ukraine hit by Russian forces a few days ago, on November 11, 2022. BULENT KILIC / AFP"




"In a basement in a former position of Russian soldiers in the village of Blahodatne, taken over by the Ukrainian armed forces, in Kherson oblast, on November 11, 2022. VALENTYN OGIRENKO / REUTERS"



"A former position of Russian soldiers in the village of Blahodatne, taken over by the Ukrainian armed forces, in Kherson Oblast, November 11, 2022. VALENTYN OGIRENKO / REUTERS"




"In a Ukrainian position near a front line in the Kharkiv region, November 11, 2022. STRINGER / REUTERS"
*ZU-23-2

[Pablius]

November 11th...good day for an armistice...someone in the Kremlin should take a hint from history

[Haiduk]

5 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Because I am willing to bet very good money that they were nowhere near 3:1 for the UA. 

 

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Before we can fully judge the situation we need to know: ratio of forces that fought in this battle

Russian MoD today reported that they have withdrew from right bank 30 000 of troops and 5000 military vehicles. But UKR GUR believes, there are enough part of Russians still on right bank both in some riverine ares of Kherson city and Kherson oblast - you can see Deepstate map - there are still large grey zone between Kherson and L'vove and between Kherson and Dnipro estuary.

From Ukrainain side in fightings were involved next brigades (I don't know in what composition of battalions), of course, a list isn't full

- ?? tank brigade (elements), 28th mech.brigade, 66th mech.brigade (?),  128th mountain-assault brigade, 59th motor-rifle brigade, 60th infantry brigade, 1st special force brigade (indeed light ranger-type infantry), 35th marines brigade, 36th marines brigade, 46th air-assault brigade, 131st recon battalion, several battalions of National Guard units, SOF (at least elements 142nd SOF Center and 73rd Maritime SOF Center), unknown number of Territorial Defense battalions.  

It can be a grouping not less 30 000

Edited November 11, 2022 by Haiduk

[Probus]

11 minutes ago, Taranis said:

"Russian military volunteers and civilians undergo shooting training at a shooting range in the Rostov region on November 11, 2022. STRINGER / AFP"

Those aren't Russian volunteers.  They are women and the RA hasn't enlisted women, yet.

[Calamine Waffles]

https://www-moscowtimes-eu.translate.goog/2022/11/11/20-trillionov-na-veter-krupneishaya-v-rossiiskoi-istorii-gosprogramma-proizvodstva-oruzhiya-ostanovlena-posle-provalov-v-ukraine-a26303?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

 

Quote

The largest state program for the production of weapons in modern Russian history, for which 20 trillion rubles were allocated from the federal budget over the past 10 years, has been scrapped.

In early November, Russian President Vladimir Putin instructed to rewrite the army supply standards and bring them into line with the real needs of the armed forces. According to Putin's list of instructions , the order must be implemented as soon as possible - before November 14. Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu were appointed responsible.

De facto, Putin has suspended the State Armaments Program (SAP), the basic plan on which the military-industrial complex has been operating in recent years. The current SAP has ceased to be a document by which weapons are purchased and financed by the military-industrial complex, a source close to the Ministry of Defense and a top manager of a defense industry enterprise told Vedomosti .

In fact, the development of the new SAP, which was estimated at 22 trillion rubles, has also been suspended, one of the sources of the publication says. The reason, according to him, is that it is necessary to “revise priorities”, based on the experience of the campaign in Ukraine.

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

 

 

 

[Haiduk]

Some more scenes how locals meet own army

Russians see this too and in some very rare heads a sparkle appears:

Translation: Khersonians met us with protests. But AFU meet with flowers. Then for what our guys give own life?

[The_Capt]

53 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

 

Russian MoD today reported that they have withdrew from right bank 20 000 of troops and 5000 military vehicles. But UKR GUR believes, there are enough part of Russians still on right bank both in some riverine ares of Kherson city and Kherson oblast - you can see Deepstate map - there are still large grey zone between Kherson and L'vove and between Kherson and Dnipro estuary.

From Ukrainain side in fightings were involved next brigades (I don't know in what composition of battalions), of course, a list isn't full

- ?? tank brigade (elements), 28th mech.brigade, 66th mech.brigade (?),  128th mountain-assault brigade, 59th motor-rifle brigade, 60th infantry brigade, 1st special force brigade (indeed light ranger-type infantry), 35th marines brigade, 36th marines brigade, 46th air-assault brigade, 131st recon battalion, several battalions of National Guard units, SOF (at least elements 142nd SOF Center and 73rd Maritime SOF Center), unknown number of Territorial Defense battalions.  

It can be a grouping not less 30 000

So about 1.5:1 on terrain their opponent had been holding for nearly half a year before the major offensive.  No doubt they achieved much higher ratios locally, but that is still pretty impressive.  Very interested to see what the casualty ratios per side were, and the ammo expenditures. 

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

I'm not so sure.  The alternative is Kherson looking like Bucha or Irpin, Izyum or Kupyansk, or any other number of small villages wiped from the map.  In fact, I wonder if Ukrainians would be upset by the opposite.  Don't you think a large chunk of the Ukrainian people would be upset to have Kherson destroyed and 1000 friendly casualties over weeks of hard fighting, then finding out that Zelensky rejected a way to avoid it?

They probably would, and I would agree with them. The issue is that if agreement existed, such -let's face it- very controversial and undemorcatic decision of making secret deals with the enemy resonates in very bad tunes in the ears of endemically divided political public in Ukraine. Now everybody is in very cheerfull mood, it wil last for several weeks. But later, as these muscovite troops will enter battlefield elswhere and Kremlin will bragg about perfectly coordinated military operation that will go into history books, more and more voices of "stolen victory" may reappear;  especially from the critics of current Kyiv administration.

But that is for potential future, for now we should celebrate strategic success.

These scenes are reminescent of 1945: