How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_MonkeyKing]

3 hours ago, Huba said:

And the grain deal is back! There's  A LOT of things for which Erdogan can be criticized, but his approach to dealing with Putin is perhaps the most effective from all the NATO leaders.

 

 

[Huba]

Just now, The_MonkeyKing said:

 

I was looking for that to add to the post, but couldn't find it  Yeah, that sums the situation up at least partially - the best person to deal with a bully is even bigger bully.

[dan/california]

 

 

4 hours ago, Huba said:

The PL flag next to UA one might give you come clues as to where the factory is located  Apparently the UA equivalent of Shahed drones is about to enter service before the year ends, hopefully we'll be able to produce them both in sufficient numbers, and make them a tad better than the Iranian mopeds.

 

I really can't wait to see these in action. I will just point out the Chinese are taking notes, and in the medium term we need a plan to deal five hundred or a thousand of these in a single wave.

4 hours ago, Huba said:

And the grain deal is back! There's  A LOT of things for which Erdogan can be criticized, but his approach to dealing with Putin is perhaps the most effective from all the NATO leaders.

 

I don't like Erdogan, I don't trust Erdogan, BUT if we can keep on board long enough to get to Russians out of Ukraine, and Ukraine in NATO it is worth quite few concessions somewhere else. It isn't like the people running most of the places to Turkey's south and east are any better.

1 hour ago, Billy Ringo said:

Pot meet kettle.  The irony...

"For my friends everything, for my enemies the law", Machiavelli, I think. Prigozhin suddenly emerging as prosecutor general in addition to his day job has to be the clearest case of this ever.

52 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Sound is a slippery eel to work with. Wind,  weather conditions and terrain topology play enormously into reception (CW buffs will know it as acoustic shadowing),not to mention the power output if the sound source itself. A shahed powering upwind through 30km wind towards a listener is not going to be heard as quickly, esoif the receiver is moving as well.

Sailors will know the difficulties of shouted commands v.  Wind, even on a relatively  "flat"  topology like the sea. On set,  wind is my own biggest problem with communication. 

Essentially,  it's doable, but there are probably more reliable and multi-use approaches.  

My bet would be on movable network of mast-mounted (static or erectile), balloon lofted or building-fixed long range thermal cameras. These would provide a very useful (to many depts.) long term visual of the area,  without the need for constant processing to catch a specific sound.  You'd mount mics to the cams,  sure. But it's visual is the solve for me. 

 

As the nifty bit of Polish kit below demonstrates, the possibilities of different kinds of sensor networks enabled by what is fundamentally cell phone technology are just starting to be explored.

38 minutes ago, Huba said:

The new Polish SHORAD system Narew that we just started introducing, apart from having two mast-mounted (at 20m high masts!) EASA surveillance and fire control radars per battery, envisions that each launcher will be equipped with (also mast-mounted) thermal camera. It should not only allow the individual launcher to conduct the whole engagement by itself ( with all the limitations of of course.), but would also feed the target data into the network. The second mast on the picture is an antennae set - both for communicating with the AD network, and guiding the missiles.

And when do we see these beauties on Donetsk front? I mean the Poles have sent everything else .

Edited November 2, 2022 by dan/california

[kevinkin]

One "dream job" would be writing headlines for the NY Post:

"Crimea river: Putin battling cancer and Parkinson's disease, leaked emails claim: report"

They are consistently eye catching. 

Reports about the claims were posted yesterday.  

 

Edited November 2, 2022 by kevinkin

[danfrodo]

Summary of front line news.  For Svatove front the author says news is contradictory, some credible, some rather incredible, so his maps are staying w what he thinks is most credible news.  Hopefully we'll see more progress soon but right now it looks like just pressure all over trying to find the weak points.  The Road N & S of Svatove seems to be interdicted by UKR fire, which could help reduce the ability of RU to move reserves up & down the front.  At the bottom there's report of more Antonovsky bridge strikes, which always makes me smile.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/11/2/2133025/-Ukraine-update-Good-news-unbelievable-news-and-puzzling-news-from-Svatove

 

[Zeleban]

Another demonstration of couption in the purchase of Russian military technology. This time it is the Block-Post-K alarm system. This is a rather primitive system with an antenna and several bracelets with a panic button on them. The fighter at the post presses the button and a light with the number of the post lights up on the scoreboard built into the suitcase. These kits were purchased at a cost of $3,000 per suitcase. Inside were several cheap Chinese microcircuits. I think the real cost of such a kit may be in the region of several hundred bucks.

Unfortunately the video is in Ukrainian. You can turn on auto-translation, but it is not very high quality, as the presenter uses a lot of sarcasm

[Zeleban]

1 hour ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

 

A good demonstration of who is the sovereign master of the Black Sea. As we can see, the possession of Crimea does not give Russia any advantages at sea.

[akd]

1 hour ago, kevinkin said:

One "dream job" would be writing headlines for the NY Post:

"Crimea river: Putin battling cancer and Parkinson's disease, leaked emails claim: report"

They are consistently eye catching. 

Reports about the claims were posted yesterday.  

 

IMO, this is intentional disinformation spread by FSB to up the “mad man” / “nothing to lose” deterrence factor, and not surprisingly, NY Post is happy to help.

[kevinkin]

This article - like a few others - compares Taiwan and Ukraine's geographic position vis a vee invasions by China and Russia. Defending Taiwan is easier they claim with the both invaders ending up with long ranged fires out of frustration. But China has plenty of softer targets within reach to forward its interests. Russia is really stuck which is why it matters they are crushed while Xi is watching. 

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/11/can-china-invade-and-conquer-taiwan-study-ukraine/

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

I don't like Erdogan, I don't trust Erdogan, BUT if we can keep on board long enough to get to Russians out of Ukraine, and Ukraine in NATO it is worth quite few concessions somewhere else. It isn't like the people running most of the places to Turkey's south and east are any better.

Here I would disagree, but let's leave it like that not to do OT. Just a food for thought- It's not even only about Kurds, but entire form of active Neo-Ottoman polity doing its own business where it likes, with whom it likes and the way it likes while maintaing all benefits of NATO membership, that is troubling in longer run. Concept of "our bad guy bullying their bad guy" backfired too many times in the past for the West.

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

And when do we see these beauties on Donetsk front? I mean the Poles have sent everything else .

Probably never unfortunatelly, it is ascending equipment and Polish Air Defence was so neglected over the years it resembles swiss cheese intensively shoot with shotgun.

 

Ukrainian propaganda account, nontheless it is always nice to look at Putin humiliated. He probably rationalize it in a way that Turks are now responsible by law (whatever he means) to be endorser of Ukrainian actions in Black Sea. In other words, he may hope Erdogan will pacify Zhelensky. We will see if that will be the case.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1587811677449474048

Edited November 2, 2022 by Beleg85

[kevinkin]

12 minutes ago, akd said:

IMO, this is intentional disinformation spread by FSB to up the “mad man” / “nothing to lose” deterrence factor, and not surprisingly, NY Post is happy to help.

You can read full reports with a grain of salt, but the headlines they come up with are often priceless. If Putin has pancreatic, his days are numbered and these reports will be confirmed or debunked pretty quickly. 

Edited November 2, 2022 by kevinkin

[acrashb]

"In stunning comeback, Netanyahu poised to return as Israel PM with a majority"

Stunning is right, and a majority in Isreal - with its proportional representation system - would be nearly as stunning and no doubt a welcome change, for the electorate, from the last four years.

https://nationalpost.com/news/world/israels-netanyahu-appears-to-edge-toward-victory-after-vote

Relevance: 

Netanyahu Shows Dramatic Change in Stance in Favor of Ukraine | Asharq AL-awsat (aawsat.com)

 

Edited November 2, 2022 by acrashb

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

Summary of front line news.  For Svatove front the author says news is contradictory, some credible, some rather incredible, so his maps are staying w what he thinks is most credible news.  Hopefully we'll see more progress soon but right now it looks like just pressure all over trying to find the weak points.  The Road N & S of Svatove seems to be interdicted by UKR fire, which could help reduce the ability of RU to move reserves up & down the front.  At the bottom there's report of more Antonovsky bridge strikes, which always makes me smile.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/11/2/2133025/-Ukraine-update-Good-news-unbelievable-news-and-puzzling-news-from-Svatove

 

AGGGGHHHH!  You didn't warn me! It's a LIBERAL site, man! My eyes! My EEEEYYYESS!!!!! 

 

just teasing

[Battlefront.com]

32 minutes ago, akd said:

IMO, this is intentional disinformation spread by FSB to up the “mad man” / “nothing to lose” deterrence factor, and not surprisingly, NY Post is happy to help.

I agree that it seems NY Post fell for an FSB ploy.  However, I do think Putin has some serious health issues and the disinformation from the FSB is meant to create confusion/uncertainty around what exactly is going on and how serious it might be.  At least that is a pretty standard FSB way of responding.

Steve

[Yet]

6 hours ago, Huba said:

And the grain deal is back! There's  A LOT of things for which Erdogan can be criticized, but his approach to dealing with Putin is perhaps the most effective from all the NATO leaders.

 

Erdogan still has a nato veto (or temporisarion) for finland and sweden up his sleeve

[akd]

New version of T-72B3 probably incorporating changes based on wartime experience:

 

[Zeleban]

 

[Beleg85]

Several twitts about artillery parity:

 

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

Here I would disagree, but let's leave it like that not to do OT. Just a food for thought- It's not even only about Kurds, but entire form of active Neo-Ottoman polity doing its own business where it likes, with whom it likes and the way it likes while maintaing all benefits of NATO membership, that is troubling in longer run. Concept of "our bad guy bullying their bad guy" backfired too many times in the past for the West.

Unfortunately letting the best be enemy of the good is not a pick we can make right now. Getting Russia OUT of Ukraine, and Sweden and Finland IN NATO are nearly absolute short term priorities. Nothing Turkey can do to its east and south compares at the moment. Doubly so considering the entire area is a disaster already. 

[FancyCat]

Meh, Turkey is annoying but the bilateral promises to Sweden and Finland are more than sufficient for protecting them in the short and mid-term vs Russia.

Lovely to see Russia with utter egg on its face regarding the grain deal.

[FancyCat]

Imo, while Turkey is a bastard, if the consideration is ensuring Ukraine wins, the position of Turkey as mediator and neutral party serves both NATO and Ukraine quite well. For example, Turkey has provided good diplomatic weight to counter Russian anti-Ukrainian PR (grain deal for example) and the symbolic military aid before February is important to note.

The fact that Turkey serves Russia in several ways makes it essential for leveraging stuff like this promise in the tweet.

The most important thing in the grain deal is that Ukraine gets to export grain, end stop. Nothing else matters. Grain leaves, Ukraine gets money, the world economy and the poorest do not suffer as badly as a total stop of exports. Whoever benefits alongside, whoever gets brownie points, the essential thing is that the grain leaves Ukraine.

Should this promise hold, aside from striking the grain infra in Ukraine, the shipping lane is essentially secure. Extremely important, Ukraine can secure land based objects with air defense and be functional after suffering losses due to Russian attacks, but any Russian strike on shipping will effectively end the grain exports.

 

[JonS]

4 hours ago, dan/california said:

As to the impact question about thirty HIMARS and three hundred 155 tubes changed the course of this war.

Artillery, due to its range, tends to have operational impact. It's also relatively simple to employ and integrate.

A US Army heavy armed bde is like the whirling chain on a chainsaw. Not the whole saw, just the chain. With out the rest of the saw - the engine, the bar, fuel for the engine  the trigger, the person holding it and knowing what to do with it ... well, you can still do a lot of damage with just the chain but only a fraction of what a saw/can do. The Abrams and Bradleys are just the teeth on that chain. Without the rest of what goes into a bde, and the wider system that supports and enables the bde, well ... look at the Saudis for an extreme example.

[NamEndedAllen]

5 hours ago, dan/california said:

The problem right from late March is that the we have been too scared of what winning means.

This, in a nutshell. For about everyone except Ukraine. Fear of winning. A known and treatable condition?

[NamEndedAllen]

I keep wondering what the war would look like if the USA immediately provided Ukraine not with the ponderous big footprint (and target)of  heavy armor and logistical trains but with the long range known capability to strike critical targets throughout much of European Russia and importantly, Moscow. Just as Russia can and does strike Kyiv. With all the necessary caveats and consequences on permitted usage and rules made clear to Ukraine (and Russia) beforehand. What are the serious, not Russiaphile, problems with such a policy? Fear of winning? The frog has been slowly boiled long enough, with strikes into Russia and occupied Crimea, that the extended artillery/missile range is not the leap that the appearance of the blatantly visible USA Abrams, Bradleys, F-16s, and huge logistics would be. Instead, it is a *deterrence* action only.

Accompanied by the public announcement by Ukraine - and private by the USA, to Russia along these lines:

From now on, any Russian strikes on civilians or civilian infrastructure will be met by equal and proportionate retaliation, for which Ukraine now openly has the means. Just as Russia has deterrent nukes. And just as international norms of modern warfare explicitly permit. That the world and Ukraine has had enough of Russia’s illegal aggression against a sovereign nation and will no longer tolerate the threat to the rest of Europe and to a peaceable world. If Russia wishes to continue losing  militarily, the lines are there and Ukraine can and will meet and continue to defeat the Russian military. But henceforth no further heinous Russian crimes against humanity will go unpunished. Lastly, further Russian attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure will result in the USA labeling Russia a state sponsor of terrorism with all the consequent authorized sanctions against persons and nations that trade with Russia, as set forth here.

https://www.state.gov/terrorist-designations-and-state-sponsors-of-terrorism/

 

 

[dan/california]

3 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

I keep wondering what the war would look like if the USA immediately provided Ukraine not with the ponderous big footprint (and target)of  heavy armor and logistical trains but with the long range known capability to strike critical targets throughout much of European Russia and importantly, Moscow. Just as Russia can and does strike Kyiv. With all the necessary caveats and consequences on permitted usage and rules made clear to Ukraine (and Russia) beforehand. What are the serious, not Russiaphile, problems with such a policy? Fear of winning? The frog has been slowly boiled long enough, with strikes into Russia and occupied Crimea, that the extended artillery/missile range is not the leap that the appearance of the blatantly visible USA Abrams, Bradleys, F-16s, and huge logistics would be. Instead, it is a *deterrence* action only.

Accompanied by the public announcement by Ukraine - and private by the USA, to Russia along these lines:

From now on, any Russian strikes on civilians or civilian infrastructure will be met by equal and proportionate retaliation, for which Ukraine now openly has the means. Just as Russia has deterrent nukes. And just as international norms of modern warfare explicitly permit. That the world and Ukraine has had enough of Russia’s illegal aggression against a sovereign nation and will no longer tolerate the threat to the rest of Europe and to a peaceable world. If Russia wishes to continue losing  militarily, the lines are there and Ukraine can and will meet and continue to defeat the Russian military. But henceforth no further heinous Russian crimes against humanity will go unpunished. Lastly, further Russian attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure will result in the USA labeling Russia a state sponsor of terrorism with all the consequent authorized sanctions against persons and nations that trade with Russia, as set forth here.

https://www.state.gov/terrorist-designations-and-state-sponsors-of-terrorism/

 

 

If the lights go out Moscow the day before Christmas, and stay out until new years Putin might show up on January one with a whole new attitude. I do think Moscow and St Petersburg are the only cities that matter, Russia has made it perfectly clear by how it treats its own soldiers that what happens in the rest of the country is simply irrelevant.