How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Calamine Waffles]

[dan/california]

Check out the guy in the background at about ten seconds in who is realizing the Russian Empire is done.

[cesmonkey]

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-europe-government-and-politics-db8dbbe1ce0032550208a43824853ad5

 

Quote

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Pentagon is sending Ukraine a new $275 million package of weapons and other aid, in a move to bolster the effort to drive Russian forces out of key areas in the south as the winter closes in, U.S. officials said Thursday.

Officials said there are no major new weapons in the U.S. package, which is expected to be announced on Friday. Instead, the U.S. aid is largely aimed at restocking thousands of rounds of ammunition for weapons systems already there, including for the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, known as HIMARS, which Ukraine has been successfully using in its counteroffensive against Russia.

 

[dan/california]

 

 

Commenting on the controversy surrounding former RT director and host Anton Krasovsky, suspended for an overly vicious anti-Ukrainian tirade on a show last week, expatriate Russian satirist Viktor Shenderovich remarked that Krasovsky had “found himself in the position of the man who gets fired from the Gestapo for brutality.” Indeed, while Krasovsky’s musings on murdering Ukrainian children were unusually vile even for present-day Russian television, they differ only in degree from what currently passes for normal in the Kremlin-controlled media. What’s more, it’s fairly clear that the incendiary comments were not treated as out of line by Krasovsky’s colleagues or superiors until they were publicized in the West and caused an outcry.

From https://www.thebulwark.com/russians-accuse-ukraine-of-nazism-but-look-at-how-russian-propagandists-talk/

True, funny, and well written. You don't see that very often. Sorry about the background, can't figure out how to make it go away, if anyone wants to tell me how...

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

Today's ISW report mentioned a possible strike by Ukraine on a power plant in Crimea.  I don't think I saw any info on this.  Anybody know more?

Quote

Ukrainian forces may have conducted a drone attack on a critical infrastructure facility in Russian-occupied Crimea on October 27. Russian-occupied Sevastopol governor Mikhail Razvozhaev claimed that likely Ukrainian actors conducted a drone attack against the Balaklava thermal power plant in Crimea on October 27.[31] A Russian source claimed that the drone attack caused one of the transformers at the plant to catch on fire.[32] This supposed drone strike has not been accompanied by widespread reporting nor by video conformation, which has characterized previous Ukrainian strikes on facilities in Russian-occupied Crimea.

Steve

[Offshoot]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

Sorry about the background, can't figure out how to make it go away, if anyone wants to tell me how...

If you're on a PC, copy-pasting it into and then out of Notepad will strip all formatting.

[NamEndedAllen]

3 hours ago, CAZmaj said:

My own advice — in the event Putin deploys a small tactical nuclear weapon: Don’t be hasty. Condemn the act in the most serious terms but hold any retaliation long enough to let the world and his fellow Russians absorb what he has done.

This is not the dumbest advice put forward on the question.

3 hours ago, CAZmaj said:

another scenario, one that might be described as a slow fading away for the Russian leader. A weakened Putin would cling to power, many more Russians would leave the country, and Russia would for a time simply exist as a dispirited and weak country.

Regardless of what lies ahead for Putin, Russia itself is already well along in fading away. No matter the state of its military, ultimately a nation requires people. Putin is throwing away thousands and thousands of lives of men from youth to um, maturity. AFAIK, even Russia needs both men and women for the esteemed and noble activity of, what term most appropriate here, ah, reproduction! 
But wait! Houston, we have a problem: where are the people? 

The newborns up to 30 years old are vanishing. The normal age distribution should look more like a pyramid or in the industrialized countries more like a cylinder as birth rates have come closer to population replacement ratios. As the vicissitudes of life occur, the numbers trail off until at the top, say those 90 to 100 years old hardly anyone is left. But Russia? This isnt a cylinder, let alone a pyramid. It’s a Christmas Tree with the big lower branches sawed off! Yah sure, modern industrialized countries have been trimming their reproduction rates, but this picture isn’t just the “normal” trimming. Plus it is quite top heavy. And the youngest tiers have already flattened. Which is either will be expensive or else bring much suffering and grimness. Who will work when the elderly surpass the young?

Taking roughly speaking and rounding, 100,000 reproductive age men (and counting!) off the table is yet another display of Putin’s genius. 
 

For comparison, here also is the USA distribution. Not a pyramid, 

[Battlefront.com]

7 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Taking roughly speaking and rounding, 100,000 reproductive age men (and counting!) off the table is yet another display of Putin’s genius. 

Well, he did have the bright idea to invade Ukraine and steal its children.  Definitely no accident there, the Kremlin has realized for some time now that it's white Christian Orthodox population is on a dangerous decline, which is all the more alarming to it has had to bring in workers from neighboring countries just to keep the lights on.  Now that Russia is trying to conscript them as well (there was just a dust up with Uzbekistan this week over this), they are leaving Russia in huge numbers.  This doesn't change the demographics as they aren't counted in the Russian population statistics (e.g. they are not Russian citizens), but it sure does hurt the ability for Russia to keep its economy going.

Steve

[acrashb]

10 hours ago, The_Capt said:

It also comes down to how much Ukraine did not suck, excelled in fact.  And then the comparative collision of those two systems. 

So in addition to Russia Sucks™ we may now layer in Ukraine Rocks™. 

I think the summary of your lengthy and interesting posts on this is that both are a too-low-resolution way of examining actions and predicting outcomes.  Sloppy use of these now-tropes - in real life, not here - gets people killed without cause.

Both phrases should be consigned to the bin except when reacting to video of things blowing up.

What's really interesting is the collision - parts of it look like adaptive rock-paper-scissors, with one side adapting much more quickly.

 

9 hours ago, danfrodo said:

LIBERAL SITE, ENTER AT YOUR OWN PERIL.

Pay no attention to the heathens.  Keep providing the warning, it is both informative (a bit) and fun - part of your personal brand

[danfrodo]

34 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Well, he did have the bright idea to invade Ukraine and steal its children.  Definitely no accident there, the Kremlin has realized for some time now that it's white Christian Orthodox population is on a dangerous decline, which is all the more alarming to it has had to bring in workers from neighboring countries just to keep the lights on.  Now that Russia is trying to conscript them as well (there was just a dust up with Uzbekistan this week over this), they are leaving Russia in huge numbers.  This doesn't change the demographics as they aren't counted in the Russian population statistics (e.g. they are not Russian citizens), but it sure does hurt the ability for Russia to keep its economy going.

Steve

There's going to be some folks w warrants from The Hague after this.  And hopefully the majority will stay united in making the guilty pay before sanctions are removed.  A nation in the modern age that is an organized child kidnapping syndicate -- who could've imagined this level of governmental depravity today???

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, acrashb said:

So in addition to Russia Sucks™ we may now layer in Ukraine Rocks™.

I think the summary of your lengthy and interesting posts on this is that both are a too-low-resolution way of examining actions and predicting outcomes.  Sloppy use of these now-tropes - in real life, not here - gets people killed without cause.

Yup, that's for sure.  Since we're not responsible for decision making in real life, this is a safe space to be flippant.  However, the depth of conversation clearly indicates it's just shorthand for much deeper thinking.

1 hour ago, acrashb said:

What's really interesting is the collision - parts of it look like adaptive rock-paper-scissors, with one side adapting much more quickly.

I think it's even more interesting to look at the ways each are able to adapt compared to each other.  Ukraine is employing new technologies and weaponry that it's never used before and integrating it into their existing knowledge of how to fight this war.  From what we can see they are doing this extremely fast and very effectively.  What's more, some of the new things are being used in ways that even its makers haven't thought of or haven't had the chance to see in a conventional setting such as this.  Meaning, Ukraine is exceeding whatever the instruction manuals say.  I mean, who here thinks commercial drones come with instructions on how to turn them into bombers?

Russia is also adapting and, to be fair, doing so reasonably quickly.  Their problem is the benefits are uneven and sometimes not all that useful.  Mobiks aren't being trained to use their weapons or even provided with ammo, so learning how to avoid drone detection like the VDV units do is likely not happening.  I suspect most of the learning being done at the lowest level would not be possible without the Internet because Russia is maintaining so many separate chains of communication which are, traditionally, not very efficient.

Even when Russia shows it's gained knowledge, it's not clear they can put it to practical use.  Best example is Russia learning that HIMARS requires ditching their traditional supply stockpile and command center doctrine.  The thing that's not clear yet is that if they've come up with any practical solutions and if they've switched over to them on a large scale.  For example, mobile supply dumps is something that's been reported, but then we see another hit on a traditional stockpile that goes BOOM!  And the recent hit on the fuel trains shows that they have more work to do.  So even though it seems Russia finally learned HIMARS requires major changes, it's not clear they've figured out what those changes need to be and/or how to get everybody to do the new ways.

Steve

[sross112]

11 hours ago, billbindc said:

Luke Coffey debunks the claims made on accountability definitively here: 

https://www.hudson.org/foreign-policy/ten-myths-us-aid-ukraine-luke-coffey

These points are well understood to be true on the Hill which should put the positioning going on in a fairly unflattering context.

Good link, thanks. I hope that their intentions are true and it isn't more political scuffling that will slow, stall or diminish help to Ukraine. Suppose we'll have to wait and see.

11 hours ago, NamEndedAllen said:

In a perfect and honest, straightforward political world, I believe you would be 100% correct. And I truly hope you are. Unfortunately, we have learned through bitter experiences time after time that not verifying after trusting is disastrous. MAYBE he is meaning what he is saying, but far too often politicians on all sides wield these fiscal responsibility statements as fig leaf propaganda used only while fighting whatever the other side is doing. So I *hope* this is a rare instance of complete sincerity, but wait for verification after the upcoming elections. Too cynical? Probably. The price of living long enough!
 

 

Life is hard when you are an idealist like me. Constantly let down but still believing in right and wrong, good and evil, etc and being lambasted with shades of gray by politicians and bureaucrats. I'll probably be disappointed in the end but I try to not be too cynical as then I tend to wander around grumpy all the time.  

[Fenris]

20 minutes of footage plus long explanation of what was going on in this reddit thread.  Ex French FL guys serving with the International Legion, Foreign Service Group-Alpha in Severodonetsk.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/yf78x4/international_legion_battle_of_severodonetsk_8/

 

[Zeleban]

 

Mashovets post.

 

There was no electricity for almost the whole day ... so today is short and only about the main thing ...

1. The Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Svatovo direction are very close to cutting off the R-66 road (of course, where exactly ... I won’t say), but I emphasize that a significant section of it between Svatovo and Kremennaya is already under their effective fire control. the section north of Svatovo has already been cut in at least two places. Therefore, the command of the enemy troops is forced to carry out the logistics of their tactical grouping in the Svatovo area exclusively through Troitskoye, or all around, through Starobelsk.

2. The tactical group of enemy troops (up to 3 BTGr, probably from the 3rd Motor Rifle Division of the 20th CAA, reinforced by two "rifle battalions of the mobilization reserve" of the 2nd AK), did not go over to the expected offensive on Zarechnoye and Torskoye ... They tried with the help of two platoons, with the participation of 3 units of armored vehicles, to advance in a southwestern direction (it must be understood that this was a kind of reconnaissance in force) ... to no avail ...

3. A unit of the 27th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Guards Tank Army (up to the "combined battalion"), which is defending along the Vladimirovka-Kuzemovka line and covering the direction to Nizhnyaya Duvanka, on the night of October 24-25, 2022, received massive fire damage from forward units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine . After that, the Russian command warned him about the high probability that the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine would go on the offensive in the direction of Berestovo (Kharkiv region), but this did not happen ... and the enemy got the opportunity and was forced to replenish him with manpower and several units of weapons and military equipment for the next 2 days.

4. The enemy units defending to the west and south-west of Svatovo (probably we are also talking about units of the 20th CAA), along the Raygorodok-Novodyanye line, suffered a significant fire defeat and now, according to their command, are "on the verge of combat capability", as a result, they are forced to gradually retreat to the northeast... The distance between the positions of the forward units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which continue to gradually move towards Svatovo from the southwest, and the surroundings of the city has been reduced to 12 km.

5. On the right bank of the Seversky Donets, the enemy (with the forces of 1.5 BTGr of the 74th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 41st CAA, the "combined assault squad" BARS-13, 19 and the BTGr from the 4th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army Corps) continues its "stopping" attacks from the east in the direction of the eastern outskirts of Belogorovka and from the LNPZ in the direction of Verkhnekamenskoye.

The main goal, obviously, is to prevent, under any circumstances, the advance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine into the Shipilovka-Privolye-Novodruzhesk triangle and to the Zolotarovka-Verkhnekamenka line. After all, if this happens, then the position of the Russian troops in the area of Lisichansk and Kremennaya - Rubizhnoye will deteriorate very sharply.

6. For 2 days, the enemy continued stubborn attacks north of Bakhmut, trying to break through to Krasnaya Gora through Bakhmutskoye and Soledar from one side and at the same time attacking in the Podgorodny area ... to no avail.

Moreover, after an unexpected counterattack by units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the area of the SINIAT ODO plant two days ago, units of the Wagner PMC, which had previously attacked from Pokrovsky in the direction of the eastern outskirts of Bakhmut, were forced to withdraw at least 1.5 km and move to defense...

South of the city, at least two reinforced companies from the 31st separate assault brigade and units of the 6th mrr of the 2nd AK, reinforced with separate tanks of the tbn "Diesel" of the 1st AK and the 3rd "assault detachment" of the PMC " Wagner" are trying to break into Bakhmut by stubborn attacks from the intersection of the M-03 and T-0504 roads and also through Experienced, Ivangrad. So far ... also - to no avail.

6. In the Avdeevka direction, the enemy also did not achieve significant changes in his favor. Stubborn attacks along the Vodyanoye-Experimental and Peski-Pervomaiskoye line south of Avdiivka and north of it in the Krasnogorovka area, with the obvious goal of breaking through on the flanks of the Avdeevka defense area of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and encircling it, continue to be stubborn, hard, but to no avail for the enemy.

South of Avdiivka, the "main actors" are the units of the 1st "Slavic" motorized rifle brigade of the 1st AK, a separate assault battalion "Somali" and a separate reconnaissance battalion "Sparta", well known to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Due to the large troubles of this offensive, associated with periodic counterattacks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the command of the enemy forces also has to involve separate units of the 9th MRR, assault battalion "Storm"  and the "Pyatnashka" battalion in these attacks.

[Kinophile]

... 

Edited October 28, 2022 by Kinophile

[Kinophile]

 

[Huba]

5 hours ago, Offshoot said:

If you're on a PC, copy-pasting it into and then out of Notepad will strip all formatting.

If you are using Chrome, under right-click context menu there's an option to "paste as plain text" - it removes all the formatting of the copied text. Or use Ctrl+Shift+V.

Edited October 28, 2022 by Huba

[Probus]

 

[Bulletpoint]

18 hours ago, danfrodo said:

As I stated 1000 or more pages ago, I think Putin's plan was excellent on paper, like Steve's gravel plan.  But it wasn't about the BTGs alone.  It was about internal treason/assassination squads cutting the head off UKR in Kyiv and many provinces.  This was in conjunction w the SOF forces coming in via air & sea to secure vital facilities -- the critical one was Hostemel airport, which allow RU to move in large numbers of infantry very quickly into the Kyiv.  Then the BTGs come in to suppress whatever disjointed, leaderless resistance starts to form.  Of course we all know how this went.  Maybe with surprise it would've gone better but that was rather impossible once US was screaming to the world that Putin was going to attack.  

He had no surprise, his assassination squads failed, treason seems to have only made a significant difference in Kherson.  Hostemel turned out to be a disaster, along w multiple other SOF attempts (WHEN IS HOSTEMEL GONNA BE IN CMBS??!!!  ).  And the BTGs, well, turns out Putin attacked when it was muddy and the roadbound columns were ambushed everywhere, along with all the other hundreds of local RU tactical disasters.

It was a poor plan because it counted on rolling six sixes in one throw of the dice.

[Grossman]

Putin, China and use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine.

A joint declaration between Beijing and Kyiv in December 2013 agreed that China will not use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine and, more importantly, will provide security assurances in the event of any such threat by a third party.

[Butschi]

15 hours ago, Zeleban said:

Russian men are the strongest and most courageous on earth

Sorry but let's not share this kind of stuff here. Those guys were no gentlemen, that's for sure and there is no excuse for hitting the woman. But she is also not innocent, her choice of words is quite provocative. Without any context the sole purpose of this video is obviously to vilify Russians. Replace Russian with any other nationality including Ukrainians and you will find something similar somewhere on the internet or life in one of the shadier establishments.

IMHO there are enough awful videos and pictures of the actual war and surrounding events that really speak for themselves. We don't need this kind of stuff.

Edited October 28, 2022 by Butschi
typo

[Kinophile]

 

Edited October 28, 2022 by Kinophile

[dan/california]

6 hours ago, Huba said:

If you are using Chrome, under right-click context menu there's an option to "paste as plain text" - it removes all the formatting of the copied text. Or use Ctrl+Shift+V.

That is the answer I needed!

[A Canadian Cat]

21 hours ago, danfrodo said:

Plus the barrel damage.  We've all seen complaints that CM barrel damage isn't realistic.  This photo begs to differ.  Are those 30mm autocannon hits?  50 cal AP?

Yep, 100% save those images for the next time someone says "but my tank guns keeps getting hit and disabled, its a tank that shouldn't happen". We can answer with just that picture

[A Canadian Cat]

20 hours ago, danfrodo said:

OK I'll not put it there next time --  but when I link to to that site w/o warning and someone gets mad about it I'll send them to you .  I'll say "Sir, would you like to speak with a manager" 

You can send some of the complainers my way too if you like; I'm happy to chat with someone who's political bubble was burst with information from outside of it. We should be striving to read other points of view not hiding from them.

Edited October 28, 2022 by IanL
clarity