How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Billy Ringo]

29 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Once I learned the 93rd was moved down into the area I got the sense that Ukraine has decided it is time to push back.  The Wagner forces must be pretty beat up by this point, scraping together forces to keep the attacks going.  It is probable that Ukraine can find places where the defenses are thin and hit back effectively.  At least at the tactical level.

Steve

Once you've tapped the prison yards---where else do you go?

[akd]

Interesting UKR tank in Bakhmut. Not sure what this is, but possibly a workshop Frankenstein creation.

Edited October 22, 2022 by akd

[Vanir Ausf B]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yeah, but what about Quick Battles with auto selected forces?

There's a lot to be said for CM's ability to play around with values in the Editor for a knowledgeable and experienced designer to get exactly what is needed for a particular battle.  Kudos to whomever designed the system   However, the optimal way it should be is the default represents the average situation, Editor is used to tweak things for abnormal.

I think the way to do that is to have some sort of setting related to doctrinal differences between force structures.  NOT NATIONAL BASED!!  In the case of Russia, you can have regular Army units with NCOs ("seniors") who have very poor Leadership ratings by default, yet Spetsnaz and VDV units with better ones because those units have greater focus on low level leadership.

My thought is to have two separate Quality settings for units:

• Equipment Quality
• Leadership Quality

I thought we already had default values for these things for each branch in CM2, e.g. the default values for US and Russian forces in Black Sea quick battles are markedly different, at least for Leadership and Experience (Equipment seems to always default to best).

[Elmar Bijlsma]

1 hour ago, Seminole said:

I believe the phrase you’re looking for is Potemkin Army…

Not at all. That, to my knowledge, implies a fancy facade where the the actuality is much less impressive. But it's still a military, just weaker then expected.

Cargo cults, for those that don't know, are a Pacific island phenomenon where the natives build imitation airfields and the like in the hopes of inviting back the bountiful supplies the US Army, Navy and Air Force dumped on their islands during WW2, who built similar bases. They don't really understand what airfields do, but they build something shaped like one.

 

And that is why I prefer to use cargo cult.

The Russian Armed Forces seem to have build something akin to what won them the Great Patriotic War in the quasi-religious hopes that victory returns to them, without fully understanding what it is they are supposed to do with it.  Push onwards to Kiev, because that is what Zhukov would have done. Mass artillery bombardments because it worked for Rokossovsky. Logistics? Stalin never paid attention to that either.

They have this thing called an army but they don't really understand how it works and how to use it. Hence, cargo cult.

[dan/california]

8 hours ago, poesel said:

Sorry, but I don't get how this is different from how leadership currently works in the game?

Or do you mean that leadership should be split in 'officer leadership' & 'NCO leadership' modifiers, which come into play when C2 is cut?

Yes, exactly! There should be a seperate force, or at least battalion wide modifier that reflects NCO quality, doctrine and training. Idea being that forces with a high rating respond better to being out of command than forces with a low rating. Think of it as rating how capable the force is of independent operation. A NATO special forces squad would be at one end of the spectrum, and batch of DPR three day mobiks at the other. The idea ias to make killing the officers/coms of low rated units as valuable as it is in real life. A perfect implementation would also force low rated forces to push their officers further forward to get anything done, which certainly seems to be a real thing for the Russian side.

[fireship4]

Mark Galeotti is back from holiday, with a catchup episode:

https://audio.buzzsprout.com/oxwwdnx3sfnvqmcg8q3dy0kxg0yq?response-content-disposition=inline&

Of the podcast 'In Moscow's Shadows':

https://feeds.buzzsprout.com/1026985.rss

That goes along with his blog:

https://inmoscowsshadows.wordpress.com/

 

EDIT: In other news, Adam Curtis has released a new documentary 'Russia 1985–1999: TraumaZone':

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ke600MgW1F0

or for those in the UK: https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episodes/p0d3hwl1/russia-19851999-traumazone

An interview about it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=663vLIYBcpI

Edited October 22, 2022 by fireship4

[stuxneet]

1 hour ago, akd said:

Interesting UKR tank in Bakhmut. Not sure what this is, but possibly a workshop Frankenstein creation.

Hmm, looks like captured T-80BV (or U?) with T-72B3 Obr. 2016 Kontakt-5/Relikt turret ERA wedges and sideskirts?? Very odd

[Haiduk]

 EC H125 of State Border Guard of Ukraine and probably 10th operative reaction detachment "Dozor" of Border Guard (some sort of special forces unit)

 

[Huba]

1 hour ago, Billy Ringo said:

Once you've tapped the prison yards---where else do you go?

Mental asylums seem to be the logical next step

Meanwhile, some very good news start to come from Kherson:

 

[Haiduk]

18 minutes ago, Huba said:

Meanwhile, some very good news start to come from Kherson:

Very strange, that usualy official information from General Staff always catchs up social media information - from RUMINT to video confirmations. Now there wasn't even hints about this in previous days, but GS claimed Russians withdrawal...

From other rumors, UKR as if close to liberating of Mylove (based on this hint from Georgian Legion "Almost there, Mylove") and Sukhanove. 

Russians in own turn claimed about own "counter-offensive on Kupiansk and Lyman directions" and "UKR offensive on section Chervonopopivka - Zhytlivka", but looks like this is just about local meeting engagements. 

Interesting rumors from Russian TG channels, as if Russian troops left own positions near border Russian town Shebekino in Belforod ob;ast - UKR artillery already several day have been shelling this area and hit again their power infrastructure

 

Edited October 22, 2022 by Haiduk

[dan/california]

45 minutes ago, Huba said:

Mental asylums seem to be the logical next step

Meanwhile, some very good news start to come from Kherson:

 

That would bring the dam, the ferry crossing, and everything else around Nova Khahovka in range of 52 caliber 155, depending the exact front line it might even be in 777 range. I would posit that means everything the Russians have north oh the Inhulets is now untenable. Assuming information is accurate, of course. Truly excellent news.

[Combatintman]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

Yes, exactly! There should be a seperate force, or at least battalion wide modifier that reflects NCO quality, doctrine and training. Idea being that forces with a high rating respond better to being out of command than forces with a low rating. Think of it as rating how capable the force is of independent operation. A NATO special forces squad would be at one end of the spectrum, and batch of DPR three day mobiks at the other. The idea ias to make killing the officers/coms of low rated units as valuable as it is in real life. A perfect implementation would also force low rated forces to push their officers further forward to get anything done, which certainly seems to be a real thing for the Russian side.

Great ... so you want to take this degree of control and refinement out of the editor then?

[dan/california]

25 minutes ago, Combatintman said:

Great ... so you want to take this degree of control and refinement out of the editor then?

No, I am just asking for a somewhat easier way to set/adjust what seems a fairly common real world condition in the current war. I am at least positing that this might require adding a new stat. But I am quite open to the suggestion that what I am proposing is doable with some spreadsheet jujitsu I haven't sorted out. I am definitely not arguing for less of anything in the editor. I am saying changing an entire battalion one squad at a time is less than pleasant.

Edit: It may be that laying out some mobik/ultra low quality units from scratch and having them available in the editor would fix most of this for most people. I freely admit it there so much news from the actual war I haven't sat down and REALLY tried. It has been hovering at the top of the list of things I never quite get too since you put up that excellent new map, which is much appreciated, by the way.

Edited October 22, 2022 by dan/california

[Beleg85]

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1583879903489191936

1.How vaild is that- can McConnell flip when midterms come?

58 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Very strange, that usualy official information from General Staff always catchs up social media information - from RUMINT to video confirmations. Now there wasn't even hints about this in previous days, but GS claimed Russians withdrawal...

From other rumors, UKR as if close to liberating of Mylove (based on this hint from Georgian Legion "Almost there, Mylove") and Sukhanove. 

2.Gergian Legion published several orbituaries lately, it seems they lost a bunch of guys. They were certainly fighting in Kherson region according to videos, near Davidyv Brid if recall.

3.Reports from Bakhmut claim the town is under very heavy retaliatory bombardment. Lachowski is quiet but signalls that Ukrainian attack did indeed strongly punched Russian lines there, and Wagnerites are probably not happy. We will probably know more toorrow.

4. Interesting "something" about Iranian drone instructors arriving at Ukraine that recently were vaporized...this account is usually very well informed about "behind the curtain" military and technical gossips. It very enigmatically claims that beforementioned Iranians' ends could have  something to do with Israeli activities.

https://twitter.com/PEmeryt/status/1583870706278084608

5. Some really nice gossips from Russian channels regarding Kherson. Somebody likes poetry and ancient history there ?

https://twitter.com/INTobservers/status/1583876832973053952

 

Edited October 22, 2022 by Beleg85

[Haiduk]

Suddenly very pesimistic post from Grey Zone: https://t.me/grey_zone/15443

In short:

- situation around Kherson became in some things even worse, then after UKR breakthrough to Balakliya in Kharkiv oblast.

- organized withdrawal of 1st line of defense already almost impossible (but author says he will be glad to mistake)

- There are two questions - how to withdraw troops on left bank and how to explain this for people in Russia?

- author supposes, some troops will be left for "last stand" to become "modern 28 Panfilov's men" and their fight for Kherson will bring like "Stalingrad-level" epic battle [some our experts also say Russians can left there DPR mobiks and Russian "chmobiks" or some alsmost "dead" units, ecacuating from right bank only VDV and relatively capable units of Eastern nilitary district]

- UKR hasn't any reasons to blow up Nova Kahovka dam, in 1941 exactly Red Army has blown up DneproGES dam, to delay German advance   

PS. my post is the same as article 5 of Beleg85 ) 

Edited October 22, 2022 by Haiduk

[Combatintman]

18 minutes ago, dan/california said:

No, I am just asking for a somewhat easier way to set/adjust what seems a fairly common real world condition in the current war. I am at least positing that this might require adding a new stat. But I am quite open to the suggestion that what I am proposing is doable with some spreadsheet jujitsu I haven't sorted out. I am definitely not arguing for less of anything in the editor. I am saying changing an entire battalion one squad at a time is less than pleasant.

It is about 10 minutes work - set what you think your most common value across the unit is going to be when you pick the battalion in the editor then refine from there.

[poesel]

What if the RA holes up in Kherson city itself? Since the UA cannot just flatten every house as the Russian do, it would be a very, very bloody fight. And it would be an even fight since there is no technological advantage on either side and the Russians soldiers are the best they have. That is a better chance than anywhere else.
UA also cannot just bypass Kherson because Russia could then blow up the dam.

I doubt Putin would hesitate to pay the price in blood if he sees a chance that this battle is 'too much' for western stomachs.

[Zeleban]

Motor Sich is the largest manufacturer of helicopter and turboprop engines in the post-Soviet space from Zapoprozhye. Until 2014, 100% of helicopter engines for the Russian army (Ka-52, Mi-28, Mi-8) were produced by Motor Sich. If this is true, the Russian special services were represented at the highest level in the Ukrainian defense industry

[Zeleban]

 

Very similar to 30mm autocannon from CMBS

[Vanir Ausf B]

7 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

Very similar to 30mm autocannon from CMBS

Except the one in CMBS has much lower dispersion

[Zeleban]

Just now, Vanir Ausf B said:

Except the one in CMBS has much lower dispersion

the same for long distances

[Beleg85]

22 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

- There are two questions - how to withdraw troops on left bank and how to explain this for people in Russia?

- author supposes, some troops will be left for "last stand" to become "modern 28 Panfilov's men" and their fight for Kherson will bring like "Stalingrad-level" epic battle [some our experts also say Russians can left there DPR mobiks and Russian "chmobiks" or some alsmost "dead" units, ecacuating from right bank only VDV and relatively capable units of Eastern nilitary district]

- UKR hasn't any reasons to blow up Nova Kahovka dam, in 1941 exactly Red Army has blown up DneproGES dam, to delay German advance   

PS. my post is the same as article 5 of Beleg85

Folks regularly observing GreyZone tell the guy who published this strange conglomerate of cheap poetry, Soviet propaganda and infantile Russian nationalistic esthetics is well known doom-sayer there, somebody even called him "small Girkin". So we will need to wait.

18 minutes ago, poesel said:

What if the RA holes up in Kherson city itself? Since the UA cannot just flatten every house as the Russian do, it would be a very, very bloody fight. And it would be an even fight since there is no technological advantage on either side and the Russians soldiers are the best they have. That is a better chance than anywhere else.
UA also cannot just bypass Kherson because Russia could then blow up the dam.

I doubt Putin would hesitate to pay the price in blood if he sees a chance that this battle is 'too much' for western stomachs.

If they will indeed leave only mobiks there, fight could be quick. But probably they can stiffen them with veterans. More worriesome is Russian artillery from other side, they did probably stocked enough supplies to cover withdrawal of their own troops with creeping barrages. And will of course not hesitate to turn city into ruins.

Some speculated that last call Shoigu-Austin-Rheznikov coould involve some deals regarding Kherson situation.

[Haiduk]

31 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

Motor Sich is the largest manufacturer of helicopter and turboprop engines in the post-Soviet space from Zapoprozhye. Until 2014, 100% of helicopter engines for the Russian army (Ka-52, Mi-28, Mi-8) were produced by Motor Sich. If this is true, the Russian special services were represented at the highest level in the Ukrainian defense industry

As I know since 2014 OFFICIAL supply to Russia were canceled, but Boguslayev never hide own pro-Russian sympaties. I think, he was detained also and bacause of that strange deal with China, when startegical UKR enterprise almost ended up in the hands of China and only pressure of USA forced to break a deal

[Zeleban]

28 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

Except the one in CMBS has much lower dispersion

The BMP-2 gun (2A42) has the same principle of automation as the Kalashnikov assault rifle - Gas-operated reloading. She shoots very accuracy, since her barrel is motionless. But it has an increased return, which makes it impossible to install it on light vehicles such as BTR.

The gun BTR-82, BTR-4 (2A72) has a principle of automation similar to the Chauchat machine gun - Long recoil with gas assist. The barrel of the gun makes very long reciprocating movements when firing. Due to this, its reсoil is much less than that of the 2A42, but its accuracy is much worse than that of the 2A42.

Edited October 22, 2022 by Zeleban

[Zeleban]

Looks like new air defense software. We recently saw something similar in the Osa air defense system. And in this video, the crew commander gives target designation to the MANPADS gunner on a previously detected target. This significantly increases the effectiveness of MANPADS. After all, they do not have their own means of detection