How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Good.  After learning that the 93rd was moved down to Bakhmut I was expecting we'd see the situation change in a favorable way.  Nice to see that might be happening now.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

10 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

True, entire Bakhmut direction was below the main headlines which concentrated on North and Kherson. There is fairly steady flow of casualties reported from that direction, and some PL volunteers visiting there talk about truly brutal, positional warfare for already several months. Rivalries between Wagner and military is good explanation of Russian determination there. Most "kremlinologists" refute claims that Prigozhin is ambitious or gifted enough to take place after Putin, but he can be trying to maneuvre to take better position in case "Game of Thrones" in Russia would start. Life of his prisoner-soldiers (lately measured at 9 days on average at the front) is of course not important. This whole Wagnerite/Prigozhin case has strong medieval or ancient dramatic vibes, if you'd ask me.

I also agree that Prigozhin is not a likely candidate for replacing Putin as it seems he's not really up for switching sides.  All of his public posturing is probably part of Putin's overall plan for Wagner.  A challenge to the MoD is the obvious one.

Which is why I'm still scratching my head as to why Wagner is being ground to the bone for nothing.  If Putin wants these guys for something later, he should be ordering them into the Kharkiv AO weeks ago area to blunt Ukraine's counter offensive.  Instead, they are being bled white over something that has no value compared to giving the Ukrainians a bloody nose.

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

New long form interview with Kamil Galeev, for those (like me) who like him. Much of it is familiar to readers here.

https://www.chinatalk.media/p/kamil-on-nukes-and-civil-war-in-russia?utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=auto_share&r=r0yx

Key points:

1. Russia’s nuclear status depends on the goodwill of the West.... the continuous import of hardware and software from developed countries.

2. Russia is not so much a nation-state as it is basically the last European colonial empire that wasn't decolonized.

3. in the beginning of this year, almost all armed people in Russia were included in formalized bureaucratic structures directly answerable to Moscow, now it's not really the case.... a number of regions, which I'm not going to specify, formed battalions, armed them, equipped them, and didn't send them anywhere.... These are not ethnic republics: they are regions perceived as ethnically majority-Russian. At this point it seems that some of these actors are basically preparing for chaos.

4. In this war, for the first time in Russian history, common soldiers are really being paid. In a small town, you could be earning 30,000 rubles per month, but on the front line you could easily earn 200,000 or 300,000 rubles.... Pskov, for example, is a really poor Russian region bordering Estonia that hosts VDV.... Some local girls married one VDV guy after another, because they're dying quickly enough that you can get several compensations in a few months. But in a sense it's a Ponzi scheme: the Russian government compensated lavishly the families of the first dozens of thousand killed in action, incentivizing the rest to comply with this mobilization, but it cannot continue indefinitely. I think those families that now are enthusiastic about their family members being sent into Ukraine are going to be cheated mostly. 

Edited October 22, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Battlefront.com]

35 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

But in a sense it's a Ponzi scheme: the Russian government compensated lavishly the families of the first dozens of thousand killed in action, incentivizing the rest to comply with this mobilization, but it cannot continue indefinitely.

That is an astute observation.  I'm sure the Russian government wasn't thinking of it that way because they seem to be too focused on the short term.  However, it will have the same effect in the end.  Not that the unpaid Russians will do more than complain about it.

This gets back to the early war discussions about Russia running out of money to keep the government functioning.  There's only so much they can divert to war spending for so long before they're going to come up short in a way that can't be ignored.  I'm still wondering if Kadyrov might find his paycheck a little light a couple of months from now.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

From ISW's report on Oct 21st:

Quote

The Russian withdrawal from western Kherson Oblast has begun. Russian forces likely intend to continue that withdrawal over the next several weeks but may struggle to withdraw in good order if Ukrainian forces choose to attack. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command stated on October 21 that Russian forces are “quite actively” transferring ammunition, military equipment, and some unspecified units from the Dnipro River’s west bank to the east bank via ferries.[1] The Southern Operational Command added that Russian forces deployed 2,000 mobilized men to hold the frontlines and are continuing to shell Ukrainian positions, likely in an effort to cover their withdrawal.

The report goes on to be a lot more specific about their thinking.  Which can be summed up as 2000 unlucky mobiks (in truth, is there any other type?) bodies being used as speedbump to slow Ukraine's ability to finish off withdrawing "elite" forces, such as VDV, Marine, and Spetsnaz.  I'm going to go out on a limb here and say few of those 2000 will ever get back to Russia unless they are wounded and evacuated.

For those of you who enjoy ISW's occasional brush with expressing a colorful opinion instead of their usual detached analyst lingo, look at this one here:

Quote

Any claims that Russian forces would not blow the dam due to concerns for the water supply to Crimea are absurd.

Yikes

Steve

[Canada Guy]

Re: National characteristics

Was there also some behind the scenes adjustments for the Russians in CMRT? I seem to recall that there was a penalty for breaking Russian squads.

and not a national characteristics but sort of, is the characteristic of having a strong vs weak NCO structure  I don't really see this modeled in CM.  but strong NCO/tactical flexibility would apply to modern US, Germany 1941-43 and it would be weak in modern Russians in Ukraine. I dont see this in CM but for these armies, out of C&C should be more detrimental for countries without a strong NCO structure.

This appears to be the one of the larger detrimental factors in the current Russian army. Read 'Armies of Sand' to see how this impacts a force. Israeli army, good NCO structure and tactical flexibility, Arabs bad (leading to little motivation as they just waited for higher levels to make all the decisions- no local flexibility in response).

Maybe we need an additional Modifier for tactical flexibility that changes on the battlefield as C&C, NCOs etc wax and wane during the battle. impacting firepower output, listening to your orders, etc.

[LongLeftFlank]

26 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yikes

Steve

Floods their side, but also makes an assault crossing that much more problematic.  And impacts on Kherson city would also be nonnegligible.

[Battlefront.com]

Well, I think we know why Russia let this particular French reporter into Kherson

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

20 minutes ago, Canada Guy said:

Re: National characteristics

Was there also some behind the scenes adjustments for the Russians in CMRT? I seem to recall that there was a penalty for breaking Russian squads.

and not a national characteristics but sort of, is the characteristic of having a strong vs weak NCO structure  I don't really see this modeled in CM.  but strong NCO/tactical flexibility would apply to modern US, Germany 1941-43 and it would be weak in modern Russians in Ukraine. I dont see this in CM but for these armies, out of C&C should be more detrimental for countries without a strong NCO structure.

This appears to be the one of the larger detrimental factors in the current Russian army. Read 'Armies of Sand' to see how this impacts a force. Israeli army, good NCO structure and tactical flexibility, Arabs bad (leading to little motivation as they just waited for higher levels to make all the decisions- no local flexibility in response).

Maybe we need an additional Modifier for tactical flexibility that changes on the battlefield as C&C, NCOs etc wax and wane during the battle. impacting firepower output, listening to your orders, etc.

A lot of that functionality is already built into the game; scenario designers just don't tap it that often unless they're representing historical engagements with elite or heroic named personnel.

On the defects of NCOs in nonWestern armies, the root causes are fairly simple and universal:

1.  Career NCOs are selected and promoted not for their MOS or command skills or ability to lead men in battle (if they DO have those skills, it's incidental); but rather

2.  for their peacetime usefulness to senior officers:  misappropriating military property, skimming draftees' pay, falsifying reports, general toadying, etc.  Their base pay rates are virtually starvation wages (junior officers aren't much better off), so they simply have to graft to make ends meet. It's expected.

Yes, the basic military jobs DO get done: there's only so much you can get away with before the higher ups start to look bad.  But the shortcutting and inattention definitely show up in combat, with results we see now.

That's pretty much true of all non-Western armies, including China, although the PLA command at least doesn't rent out its draftees as factory labour so much anymore, or so they claim. 'Good iron is not used to make nails, nor good men to make soldiers.'  

Soldiers in much of the world are viewed by the citizenry as little better than bandits; neither a source of pride nor security.  That has been true for most of human history.

Edited October 22, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Battlefront.com]

The Girkin Twitter accounted posted a video from the immediate aftermath of a Russian artillery strike near Pyatihatka, Kherson, that caught Ukrainian forces while on the march.  It was sometime last week, I think.  Somewhere there's a post here that mentioned it.  It's the one where the Russians claimed dozens of vehicles destroyed (as many as 50!), so I didn't give it much credibility. 

However, a just released drone video shows what looks to be 1x tank and 3x MT-LB knocked out.  Hard to tell specifics, such as if any were KO'd by mines.  There's another picture circulating in the Girkin thread that might be from the same battle, but it's not the same vehicles as shown in the video.

In the video it looks like one squad was wiped out KIA or heavily WIA, second squad was fully out of action with wounded (and probably some KIA), and third squad largely OK and retreating on foot.  I'm assuming the tank crew all killed as the tank was brewing up badly.

The point of bringing this up is to remind us that attacking over this sort of terrain is extremely dangerous, as CMers know all too well.  Ukraine has no doubt taken some very heavy casualties in the Kherson campaign.

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

On 10/18/2022 at 8:20 AM, sross112 said:

Or all he really wants is sharks with freaking laser beams on their heads....

Amazed nobody has found these yet.....

 

 

 

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Canada Guy said:

Re: National characteristics

Was there also some behind the scenes adjustments for the Russians in CMRT? I seem to recall that there was a penalty for breaking Russian squads.

and not a national characteristics but sort of, is the characteristic of having a strong vs weak NCO structure  I don't really see this modeled in CM.  but strong NCO/tactical flexibility would apply to modern US, Germany 1941-43 and it would be weak in modern Russians in Ukraine. I dont see this in CM but for these armies, out of C&C should be more detrimental for countries without a strong NCO structure.

This appears to be the one of the larger detrimental factors in the current Russian army. Read 'Armies of Sand' to see how this impacts a force. Israeli army, good NCO structure and tactical flexibility, Arabs bad (leading to little motivation as they just waited for higher levels to make all the decisions- no local flexibility in response).

Maybe we need an additional Modifier for tactical flexibility that changes on the battlefield as C&C, NCOs etc wax and wane during the battle. impacting firepower output, listening to your orders, etc.

That is an outstanding idea. A modifier that reflects the strength of a forces NCOs and degree of tactical flexibility. Unlike the leadership modifiers this is set for a given unit for the whole game. Forces that have a very bad stat for this just go to bleep when out of command, maybe they stop responding to orders entirely, or do so only after long delays and with bad morale. Maybe the bad morale doesn't apply if they aren't told to move. This would also incentivize killing officers and things with comm equipment when fighting these forces, which certainly seems to be the real world tactic. It would make them effectively more brittle effectively and allow really good execution, pun sort of intended, on the highest value assets to just render the whole force almost paralyzed.  

The iron level version might just have units with the worst modifiers execute their last orders received while in command and just stop, until they are back in command. You have to get an officer or a radio over there period. Playing this force at this level would be an acquired taste to put it mildly, but as a sim....

 

Edited October 22, 2022 by dan/california

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

The Girkin Twitter accounted posted a video from the immediate aftermath of a Russian artillery strike near Pyatihatka, Kherson, that caught Ukrainian forces while on the march.  It was sometime last week, I think.  Somewhere there's a post here that mentioned it.  It's the one where the Russians claimed dozens of vehicles destroyed (as many as 50!), so I didn't give it much credibility. 

However, a just released drone video shows what looks to be 1x tank and 3x MT-LB knocked out.  Hard to tell specifics, such as if any were KO'd by mines.  There's another picture circulating in the Girkin thread that might be from the same battle, but it's not the same vehicles as shown in the video.

In the video it looks like one squad was wiped out KIA or heavily WIA, second squad was fully out of action with wounded (and probably some KIA), and third squad largely OK and retreating on foot.  I'm assuming the tank crew all killed as the tank was brewing up badly.

The point of bringing this up is to remind us that attacking over this sort of terrain is extremely dangerous, as CMers know all too well.  Ukraine has no doubt taken some very heavy casualties in the Kherson campaign.

Steve

This stuff, I think?  (Zoka is a pro-RU Serb who rage quits Twitter on occasion)

Claimed to be from Soledar, north of Bakhmut:  middle aged bougie Wagnerites getting into the TikTok scene? shooting up random stuff that doesn't shoot back. Including an (unmodified) T62 just rolling up and firing off a round randomly, without the TC even moving.

Mainly interesting for the conditions:  wet and muddy, fogs.

Be advised: this guy posts months old footage, or UA material showing Russians getting blown up and claiming it's 'hohols'.  He used to be a touch more selective but doesn't seem to care now.

****

Also, didn't realise the Saheds are largely ineffective against (hard) military targets. Sound is eerie.

 

Edited October 22, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

This stuff, I think?

 

NATO's absurd sensitivity about top tier MBTs and IFVs is getting a lot of brave Ukrainians killed. Allow me to state for the 723 time that if the Russians wanted to fight NATO, the tens of thousands of casualties that they have already had are orders of magnitude more casas belli than belli than any government in human history, much less one with as few guardrails as Putin's, has ever required. 

[dan/california]

 

[dan/california]

Ukraine might want to see if theses guys prefer surrender or the tungsten rain. Seems like they might be prepped to make the right choice.

[dan/california]

Not directly related to Ukraine, but to big of a deal not to post. Xi has Hu Jintao forcibly marched out of the party congress! 

Edited October 22, 2022 by dan/california

[Maquisard manqué]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Well, I think we know why Russia let this particular French reporter into Kherson

Steve

Bit of an awkward/clumsy time for the connection to drop though! Very much looks like “Cut!” was shouted by a producer.

Seems the reporter was allowed to say the Russians were having a hard time of it, maybe on the quid pro quo of detailing Ukrainian strikes at civilian infrastructure in their own city. 

Question is, is it happening as she said or not? Probably - I can’t see why not. Despite being a bleeding heart liberal I’m not terribly surprised or shocked. I’d presume Ukraine took an informed judgement of who would be in that hospital - I.e not civvies, or not many of them.

Edited October 22, 2022 by Maquisard manqué

[paxromana]

1 hour ago, Maquisard manqué said:

Question is, is it happening as she said or not? Probably - I can’t see why not. Despite being a bleeding heart liberal I’m not terribly surprised or shocked. I’d presume Ukraine took an informed judgement of who would be in that hospital - I.e not civvies, or not many of them.

Targeting a Hospital deliberately is a war crime. Doesn't matter whether it has sick/wounded soldiers in it or not. The only exception would be if you know that the enemy are using it as shelter for active military combat personnel.

Of course, if the Hospital happens to be in close proximity to an actual military target then if it is hit by less than 100% accurate weapons which are targeting the military target then that is merely unfortunate and not a war crime.

[poesel]

2 hours ago, dan/california said:

That is an outstanding idea. A modifier that reflects the strength of a forces NCOs and degree of tactical flexibility. Unlike the leadership modifiers this is set for a given unit for the whole game.

Sorry, but I don't get how this is different from how leadership currently works in the game?

Or do you mean that leadership should be split in 'officer leadership' & 'NCO leadership' modifiers, which come into play when C2 is cut?

[chuckdyke]

2 minutes ago, poesel said:

Or do you mean that leadership should be split in 'officer leadership' & 'NCO leadership' modifiers, which come into play when C2 is cut?

Two videos to watch.

 

[Haiduk]

Since morning Russia launched already the second wave of missile strikes. Several power infrastructure objects in Khmelnitskyi, Lutsk, Rivne, Kirovohrad oblast and Odesa oblast were hit. Six missiles, heading to Kyiv were shot down over Kyiv and Chernihiv oblasts. Currently Air Forces Command claims 18 shot down missiles - 5 Kalibrs and 13 Kh-101/555 

Today's video UKR fighter launch a missile to intercept something over Odesa oblast, but result is unclear

 

 

Edited October 22, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

@sburke

Major Nikolay Aseyev, recon battalion of 346th Spetsnaz brigade (also known as SOF center "Senezh"), SOF Command. Killed on 4th of Aug.

Important note - this brigade is not usual "GRU Spetsnaz", this brigade is of SOF comamnd - new structure, established in 2012.  Russian SOF Command consists of SOF Centers - "Senezh" and "Kubinka-2", training center and 561st emergency center.

If "Senezh" was established by GRU as far as in Soviet time and was heavily classified unit, expanded into brigade since 2012, then in establishing of "Kubinka-2" big role played FSB.  

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

Properly a sweet time to add ATACMS to the play. Logistics have just adapted to HIMARS.

 

[Taranis]

7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Well, I think we know why Russia let this particular French reporter into Kherson

Steve

Seriously... What ?! She didn't bother much to write her text, it was the Kremlin that provided her with. Say that and you win 500 euros