How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_Capt]

8 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

This is not the point Kraze was making.

Right.  So a innocent random post-1944 "Red Army" FYI?  The whole "into meat grinder" remark and the heavy implication that "Russians sucked 1941-1942 but had it coming because...Russians" and "all victories after 1944 were not-Russians" were simply colour commentary?

I think we are all pretty clear on the point being made, it was not subtle...never is.  My point is that diminishing and sullying the sacrifices a nation made over 70 years ago in an existential war on their own soil because of this war is not cool.  The two events and strategic contexts are completely different unless one subscribes to the "every Russian man, woman and child is evil, everywhere and forever", which the narrative appears to suggest.

Russian leadership is definitely evil and needs to be removed - those responsible held to account.  Russian military has lost its footing on the slippery slope of war and it is a stain they should wear from here on out - again those accountable held responsible.  The Russian people who openly supported this war are wrong or misled, and they will need to come to terms with that...much in the same way the US had to come to terms with Vietnam, Indigenous genocide or slavery, or the UK in India, South Africa etc, or French in...well pick a spot in Africa. 

The Russian people who have died resisting, or have fled their nation, or continue to resist as best they can should be supported in hopes the seeds of a better Russia lay within their hands.  And at some point in the future the Russian children who pick up this mess that they had nothing to do with will need to try to make their country functional again and hopefully ensure this sort of war does not happen again. 

Of course if this was just an innocent "FYI" from the OP, then we are all golden.  To that I would only humbly suggest that his comments - pretty much from day one of this thing - may be easily misconstrued.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

11 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Right.  So a innocent random post-1944 "Red Army" FYI?  The whole "into meat grinder" remark and the heavy implication that "Russians sucked 1941-1942 but had it coming because...Russians" and "all victories after 1944 were not-Russians" were simply colour commentary?

Believe it or not, I am actually interested in the answer to the question what proportion of RKKA in 1944 onwards were Russians and what proportion were others, including the men mobilised from the reconquered territories. - as I wrote in my post. Not so much in the other stuff you mention now.

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Believe it or not, I am actually interested in the answer to the question what proportion of RKKA in 1944 onwards were Russians and what proportion were others, including the men mobilised from the reconquered territories. - as I wrote in my post. Not so much in the other stuff you mention now.

Sure, and Poles got caught up in it too, along with Romanians, Bulgarians, Slovaks, etc. The 'lucky ones' went to General A̶n̶d̶e̶r̶s̶' Berling's Polish Army. Others simply got stuck in Red Army units, as ordinary infantry or else doing whatever menial jobs (often hazardous, like mine clearing. 'Letter to Ilza' is a memoir).

*Nobody* is whitewashing the Red Army in WW2 on here either, btw.

This board is filled with hard core grognard wargamers who have spent their adult lives reading deeply into all the corners. We are pretty hard to gull. So if somebody shows up making an extraordinary claim that by late 44 the ethnic Russians are largely running punishment detachments of everyone else in front of them onto the German lines, well, bring your sources mate.

Because the consensus is, the Red Army were pretty much equal opportunity bastards, with a brutality exceeded only by their enemy.

Edited October 21, 2022 by LongLeftFlank
Apologies to great Polish patriot Gen Anders!

[Grossman]

42 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Believe it or not, I am actually interested in the answer to the question what proportion of RKKA in 1944 onwards were Russians and what proportion were others, including the men mobilised from the reconquered territories. - as I wrote in my post. Not so much in the other stuff you mention now.

The Ukrainian people were mobilized to join all four Ukrainian fronts, and this process lasted until the end of 1944. According to Vladislav Hrynevych, Candidate of Historical Sciences, in the summer of 1943 in the Donetsk region 12,860 people were called up and mobilized by advanced units. In Sumy region - 24,031 people were recruited. Military enlistment offices also established their work in the Ukrainian areas liberated from the Germans. Such a system acted like a double razor blade - those who avoided mobilization by the army were mobilized by the military enlistment offices. According to researchers, during 1943-1945 about 4.5 million Ukrainians became Red Army soldiers. After June 1944, the Soviet Red Army consisted of almost 40% of Ukrainians. The losses of the Ukrainian people during World War Two account for 40-44% of the total losses of the USSR.^[3]

^{https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1st_Ukrainian_Front}

[Beleg85]

Russian propagandist died during last night shelling of Antonovsky barges (story about doctors can be there to spice up things, though). It is worth to note strike was conducted after curfew, when regular Kherson locals are largely forbidden to leave their homes.

Edited October 21, 2022 by Beleg85

[Maciej Zwolinski]

36 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Sure, and Poles got caught up in it too, along with Romanians, Bulgarians, Slovaks, etc. The 'lucky ones' went to General Anders' Polish Army. Others simply got stuck in Red Army units, as ordinary infantry or else doing whatever menial jobs (often hazardous, like mine clearing. 'Letter to Ilza' is a memoir).

As a side note: You are mixiing up two Polish armies. The Anders Polish army was organised in 1941 out of those, who were not shot in Katyń, survived Gulags and transportation to Siberia or Central Asia. Soon they left Soviet Union via Persia to Palestine and went on to fight in the Middle East and Italy with the British. The other army, which had been organised in 1943 and got the influx of men mobilised in territories reconquered in 1944 was called the Polish People's Army (going by the commander's name, Berling's army, not Anders'). 

On the main point: I am not interested in whether Red Army is whitewashed or villified by anyone in this forum, I do not think this discussion would lead to any edifying conclusion. It was a horrible organisation, how horrible? How long is a piece of string?

What I am interested is this: I have read opinions that by 1944 (or 1945) Red Army was so depleted on men that it had to rely on people mobilised in the reconquered territories in order to keep fighting effectively. I have not seen any data to prove or disprove this point, though, but maybe someone else on this forum has. The Wikipedia data about losses during the entire war does not really weigh on this point either way, being too aggregated.

 

[LongLeftFlank]

7 hours ago, dan/california said:

Indeed the one thing the Russian seems good at is taking casualties.

And in addition to the Like, you get a special shoutout for using 'the Russian' in the singular.  As in:

Der Russe ist tot!

Lol (sardonically)

[Beleg85]

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1583427275814756352.html

Good thread about Bakhmut battles, in PL but easly autotranslated.

10 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

As a side note: You are mixiing up two Polish armies. The Anders Polish army was organised in 1941 out of those, who were not shot in Katyń, survived Gulags and transportation to Siberia or Central Asia. Soon they left Soviet Union via Persia to Palestine and went on to fight in the Middle East and Italy with the British. The other army, which had been organised in 1943 and got the influx of men mobilised in territories reconquered in 1944 was called the Polish People's Army (going by the commander's name, Berling's army, not Anders'). 

I think @LongLeftFlankgot is right here, except that newly mobilized Poles were as a rule (not always) concentrated in PPA, which  was distinct from Red Army but in practice subordinated to Soviets. Red Poles did participateds in heavy fightsn especially in Pomerania region, and casualties were heavy.

EDIT:Oh, you mean commanders name, so ok.

Edited October 21, 2022 by Beleg85

[LongLeftFlank]

No, he's right, I meant Berling and typed Anders.  And I even walked the pilgrimage trail from Hill 445 to the Polish cemetery at Cassino.

...See what I mean about being careful what you post on this Mother of All Boards?

****

.... extending remarks, this historical sidebar is actually ending up more interesting than the OP deserves.

In addition to sheer callous indifference to life, there's also a pragmatic reality that by 1944 the Red Army is (successfully) operating thousands of AFVs and other vehicles, plus aircraft and reasonably competent artillery.

So by 1944, those who are literate, or at least have fundamental mechanical skills by Eastern European 1930s standards (the Hammer), as well as Russian language skills -- so that's Russian and Russian-adjacent urban proletarians -- more likely end up as mechanics, gunners, tankers or air crew. Meanwhile those who don't (the Sickle) get the high casualty grunt roles.

So there's that.

Edited October 21, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[The_Capt]

19 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

As a side note: You are mixiing up two Polish armies. The Anders Polish army was organised in 1941 out of those, who were not shot in Katyń, survived Gulags and transportation to Siberia or Central Asia. Soon they left Soviet Union via Persia to Palestine and went on to fight in the Middle East and Italy with the British. The other army, which had been organised in 1943 and got the influx of men mobilised in territories reconquered in 1944 was called the Polish People's Army (going by the commander's name, Berling's army, not Anders'). 

On the main point: I am not interested in whether Red Army is whitewashed or villified by anyone in this forum, I do not think this discussion would lead to any edifying conclusion. It was a horrible organisation, how horrible? How long is a piece of string?

What I am interested is this: I have read opinions that by 1944 (or 1945) Red Army was so depleted on men that it had to rely on people mobilised in the reconquered territories in order to keep fighting effectively. I have not seen any data to prove or disprove this point, though, but maybe someone else on this forum has. The Wikipedia data about losses during the entire war does not really weigh on this point either way, being too aggregated.

 

Hey cool, I encourage and wish you best results on your learning journey.  I would suggest that you may want to head over to the Red Thunder forum a lot of expertise on this topic over there.  This thread is supposed to be about the current war in Ukraine - we do wander a bit - and I am not sure how your knowledge quest links back to it?  Unless there is an underlying hypothesis we are missing?

[LongLeftFlank]

10 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I would suggest that you may want to head over to the Red Thunder forum a lot of expertise on this topic over there.

 

Hmm, somebody took his grumpy pills this morning (or is jetlagged).

Silence, in Polish!!!!

(been a while since I broke my vows and posted a meme) We must make allowances for our Polish cadre. Hopefully we see a lot more Polish content for all CM games!

Edited October 21, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[The_Capt]

12 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Hmm, somebody took his grumpy pills this morning (or is jetlagged).

Silence, in Polish!!!!

(been a while since I broke my vows and posted a meme) We must make allowances for our Polish cadre. Hopefully we see a lot more Polish content for all CM games!

Cisza po polsku!! according to G-translate.  Grumpy?  I thought I was politely and gently steering the fella to a forum full of East Front lunatics who could help him out.  

Grump?  Good lord these young fellas should have been here back in the Madmatt days.  We are positively tender and loving by those standards.

Edited October 21, 2022 by The_Capt

[LongLeftFlank]

7 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Good lord these young fellas should have been here back in the Madmatt days.  We are positively tender and loving by those standards.

Wrong forum, lunkheads!®

Edited October 21, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[panzermartin]

I can't fully trust random pro russian accounts but they claim that so far artillery with krasnopol and UAVs are dealing blows to a new Ukrainian blitz today in Kherson. (Footage looks from 19th)

 

Edited October 21, 2022 by panzermartin

[LongLeftFlank]

1.  OK, back on track.  Living off the land, 17th century style.

 

This sounds like something out of Twilight: 2000 (speaking of Poland).

If draft horses were still used in Eastern Europe, I'd expect to hear about foraging cavalry raids.

2.  Yes, I know, Russia Sux Echo Chamber and all that, but, c'mon!  They laid out a Potemkin Siegfried line, FFS!

 

 

Edited October 21, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Aragorn2002]

47 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Hey cool, I encourage and wish you best results on your learning journey.  I would suggest that you may want to head over to the Red Thunder forum a lot of expertise on this topic over there.  This thread is supposed to be about the current war in Ukraine - we do wander a bit - and I am not sure how your knowledge quest links back to it?  Unless there is an underlying hypothesis we are missing?

Yeah, how dare you. Don't you know the two moderators of this thread, The_Capt and LongLeftFlank are the only ones who can go off topic and decide what's off topic and what's not?

[Beleg85]

https://twitter.com/LachowskiMateus/status/1583434136382939136

Reporter M.Lachowski refuting claims of RU propaganda channels their army entered Bakhmut. Guy was allowed into Opytne for a moment, so we can be sure Russian nationalists are lying again.

Also in other interview he described that town is turn into a fortress now, with earth and concrete fortifications, masked trenches joining safehouses, even several barricades on every street. Reportedly Ukrainian defenders there (58th, 110th, part of 93rd Bbs.) were greatly aided by experiences from Rubizhne.

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

No, he's right, I meant Berling and typed Anders.  And I even walked the pilgrimage trail from Hill 445 to the Polish cemetery at Cassino.

...See what I mean about being careful what you post on this Mother of All Boards?

****

.... extending remarks, this historical sidebar is actually ending up more interesting than the OP deserves.

In addition to sheer callous indifference to life, there's also a pragmatic reality that by 1944 the Red Army is (successfully) operating thousands of AFVs and other vehicles, plus aircraft and reasonably competent artillery.

So by 1944, those who are literate, or at least have fundamental mechanical skills by Eastern European 1930s standards (the Hammer), as well as Russian language skills -- so that's Russian and Russian-adjacent urban proletarians -- more likely end up as mechanics, gunners, tankers or air crew. Meanwhile those who don't (the Sickle) get the high casualty grunt roles.

So there's that.

Also, isn't it obviously true that who got recruited when also had quite a bit to do with what territory the USSR controlled? Germany had conquered everything in Ukraine West of the Dnieper by August of 1941, West of the Donbas by December of 1941 and the balance by the next July. The Russian army didn't reconquer the balance until 1944. Of *course* more Ukrainians got recruited later on in the war as that population again became available to the Soviet Army.

[LongLeftFlank]

29 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Yeah, how dare you. Don't you know the two moderators of this thread, The_Capt and LongLeftFlank are the only ones who can go off topic and decide what's off topic and what's not?

 

OK, ya got us!  A sinister cabal of Canucks has been pulling Steve's strings the entire life of this board.  What, you actually still believe Vermont is a US state?

....And as for @BFCElvis? Ha!  he's been our sock puppet all along. Just post an Eighties hit and that poor sap rolls right over.

[Billy Ringo]

The video that was aired last night on The NBA on TNT.  It may not be informative or add to this discussion, but maybe something we can each share with others to inform and remind them of what's at stake.  The simple fact that this very popular show carved out this much time to dedicate to this message is important, that the subject is important.

 

[Maciej Zwolinski]

57 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

 Good lord these young fellas

Who's the young fella here? I have been reading this forum since 2003, steadily lurking at periscope depth. Well, I lost 1 account and had to open another, so maybe not so steadily, but that's mere formality, a lawyer's quibble I say.

[Aragorn2002]

15 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

OK, ya got us!  A sinister cabal of Canucks has been pulling Steve's strings the entire life of this board.  What, you actually still believe Vermont is a US state?

....And as for @BFCElvis? Ha!  he's been our sock puppet all along. Just post an Eighties hit and that poor sap rolls right over.

Grow up, mate.

[kevinkin]

10 minutes ago, Billy Ringo said:

The NBA on TNT.

Thanks for that. I wonder if my beloved NHL will acknowledge anything. 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nhl/capitals/2022/02/28/alex-ovechkin-vladimir-putin-capitals-star-support-russian-president/6973283001/

Have to see if there is something out for the start of the new season. Too many war crimes since last February. Maybe Putin can use Ovechkin's image in an Uncle Alex "Mother Russia wants You" poster. 

[dan/california]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Right.  So a innocent random post-1944 "Red Army" FYI?  The whole "into meat grinder" remark and the heavy implication that "Russians sucked 1941-1942 but had it coming because...Russians" and "all victories after 1944 were not-Russians" were simply colour commentary?

I think we are all pretty clear on the point being made, it was not subtle...never is.  My point is that diminishing and sullying the sacrifices a nation made over 70 years ago in an existential war on their own soil because of this war is not cool.  The two events and strategic contexts are completely different unless one subscribes to the "every Russian man, woman and child is evil, everywhere and forever", which the narrative appears to suggest.

Russian leadership is definitely evil and needs to be removed - those responsible held to account.  Russian military has lost its footing on the slippery slope of war and it is a stain they should wear from here on out - again those accountable held responsible.  The Russian people who openly supported this war are wrong or misled, and they will need to come to terms with that...much in the same way the US had to come to terms with Vietnam, Indigenous genocide or slavery, or the UK in India, South Africa etc, or French in...well pick a spot in Africa. 

The Russian people who have died resisting, or have fled their nation, or continue to resist as best they can should be supported in hopes the seeds of a better Russia lay within their hands.  And at some point in the future the Russian children who pick up this mess that they had nothing to do with will need to try to make their country functional again and hopefully ensure this sort of war does not happen again. 

Of course if this was just an innocent "FYI" from the OP, then we are all golden.  To that I would only humbly suggest that his comments - pretty much from day one of this thing - may be easily misconstrued.

Capt, just as an aside, what is your opinion on a VISA ban? Do you think the increased pressure on the regime justifies the fact that it would make it harder for both draft dodgers, and actual regime opponents to escape Russia? Please note i do not claim draft dodgers and regime opponents are the same thing. 

[sburke]

35 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

OK, ya got us!  A sinister cabal of Canucks has been pulling Steve's strings the entire life of this board.  What, you actually still believe Vermont is a US state?

....And as for @BFCElvis? Ha!  he's been our sock puppet all along. Just post an Eighties hit and that poor sap rolls right over.

Elvis is crashed out snoring after a drunken binge with the Eagles at 6 and 0. We have a buy week so he’ll have a chance to sober up and thrash you canucks.