How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Sojourner]

"The body of Roman Malyk, the commissar of Partizansk, a town of 40,000 about 90 miles east of Vladivostok, was found on a fence, with media claiming that he had taken his own life."

 

Nothing unusual here, suicide by fence, happens all the time.

[dan/california]

I would point out that we have gone from mysterious deaths of Oligarchs, to mysterious deaths of upper level people in the regime proper, or the first one, anyway.

Edited October 17, 2022 by dan/california

[Zeleban]

Now there is a massive attack of kamikaze drones on Kyiv

[sburke]

Quote

 

Ukrainian intelligence announced a $100,000 bounty on the head of Igor "Strelkov" Girkin, the central leader of the 2014 pro-Russian Donbas uprising.

The Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Military Defense of Ukraine (GUR) released a statement on its website offering a guarantee for the significant payment to anyone who delivers Girkin to Ukraine's captivity. The former Russian military intelligence officer was long blacklisted from returning to Ukraine, serving instead as a military commentator on the "Special Military Operation," becoming one of the Russian leadership's fiercest critics for its mishandling of the invasion. His blacklisting was reversed within the last week, and he has reportedly been given the post of deputy battalion commander.

"The Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine guarantees the payment of $100,000 for the handover of Igor Girkin (Strelkov) to Ukrainian captivity," a statement on the website of the GUR read. "It is known that one of the most famous Russian terrorists has decided to renew his participation in the war against our state."

 

from Examiner

[Taranis]

"Firefighters work at the scene of a Russian bombardment in Kiev, October 17, 2022. EFREM LUKATSKY / AP"


"A drone is seen in Kiev, October 17, 2022. YASUYOSHI CHIBA / AFP"


"A policeman shoots a flying drone after attacks in Kiev, October 17, 2022. YASUYOSHI CHIBA / AFP"

[NamEndedAllen]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Good article in Politico about what might come next with Russia's political structure.  Lots of stuff we've discussed here.  Nice to see someone else talking about it

https://www.politico.eu/article/planning-for-the-chaotic-post-putin-world/

Steve

From the article. This seems about right. No matter who next occupies the Russian hot seat, it's a pretty safe bet:
“What I think happens next,” he added, “is probably a time of troubles.” - Laurie Bristow, a former British ambassador to Russia. 

[Taranis]

"A Ukrainian soldier takes cover as an airborne warning siren sounds during a Russian drone strike, October 17, 2022. GLEB GARANICH / REUTERS"


"Firefighters intervene following a drone strike on buildings, in Kiev, October 17, 2022. EFREM LUKATSKY / AP"

[Maquisard manqué]

21 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

From the article. This seems about right. No matter who next occupies the Russian hot seat, it's a pretty safe bet:
“What I think happens next,” he added, “is probably a time of troubles.” - Laurie Bristow, a former British ambassador to Russia. 

Given MI6 is running the whole show, he ought to know!

[NamEndedAllen]

1 minute ago, Maquisard manqué said:

Given MI6 is running the whole show, he ought to know!

Good catch! I forgot to use the label, “Puppet Master”.

[panzermartin]

What are they hitting with the small kamikaze drones in downtown Kiev? From the start of this war the russian raids seemed to be random and lacked focus. 

[kraze]

14 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

What are they hitting with the small kamikaze drones in downtown Kiev? From the start of this war the russian raids seemed to be random and lacked focus. 

They are trying to hit the power plant, but they can't seem to find it.

[Taranis]

Stupid... The Russians learned nothing from the bombings of Germany, the Blitz or the Vergeltungswaffen.... It has no impact on the population other than increasing the nation's resolve to go all the way. You could say it's for internal opinion but there would be no need to send such intensive attacks (they waste their weapons).

Our best thoughts to our Ukrainian friends Haiduk, Kraze, Zeleban and all

[Maquisard manqué]

54 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

What are they hitting with the small kamikaze drones in downtown Kiev? From the start of this war the russian raids seemed to be random and lacked focus. 

Pure terrorism.

[Fenris]

Long interview with Aiden Aslin - UK man serving with the UKR Marines captured in Mariupol.

 

[Taranis]

"A policeman holds a remnant of an Iranian Shahed-136 drone renamed Geran-2 by Russia which bears a handwritten inscription "For Belgorod, For Luch". SERGEI SUPINSKY / AFP"

[Kinophile]

https://www.kyivpost.com/world/two-top-russian-officials-defect-seek-asylum-in-france.html

I've no idea how reliable the KP is. 

[Bulletpoint]

14 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Close impact probably of mortar shell, but soldiers are lucky

 

I remember reading heated discussions online about whether or not artillery and mortar shells made audible noise before impact.

Some argued that artillery shells are so fast that they arrive before the sound, while others said mortars fall soundlessly. But now we have seen many videos where it's clearly noticeable that there is a whistling sound just before impact.

The time before impact is very short, but I think if you would have just enough time to go prone if you were advancing carefully and mentally prepared you could get hit by artillery.

[Tenses]

12 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

I remember reading heated discussions online about whether or not artillery and mortar shells made audible noise before impact.

Some argued that artillery shells are so fast that they arrive before the sound, while others said mortars fall soundlessly. But now we have seen many videos where it's clearly noticeable that there is a whistling sound just before impact.

The time before impact is very short, but I think if you would have just enough time to go prone if you were advancing carefully and mentally prepared you could get hit by artillery.

The mortar sound can be heard for a short period, but it is silent just before impact. It just gains speed during the fall.

[Butschi]

14 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

I remember reading heated discussions online about whether or not artillery and mortar shells made audible noise before impact.

Some argued that artillery shells are so fast that they arrive before the sound, while others said mortars fall soundlessly. But now we have seen many videos where it's clearly noticeable that there is a whistling sound just before impact.

The time before impact is very short, but I think if you would have just enough time to go prone if you were advancing carefully and mentally prepared you could get hit by artillery.

I seem to remember soldiers in WW2 saying that if you hear the shell incoming you are safe.

[Beleg85]

8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

t sounds like these guys have been mostly in the Donbas area.  Lots of Russian firepower and manpower, generally light and undermanned Ukrainian forces.  His comment about June had them holding on by sheer determination sounds right for Donbas at the time.

Yes, it is possible as well. He talk about long battles like "hell in woods" several times, so it could be somehwere around larger Seversky Donec area.

I will post summation from another video soon, it will be interesting to compare thoughts from before and after offensive. Generally since more reporters go into war zones, there are several more interviews with various volunteers available now, if they will be interesting I will try to gradually summarize them here. A pitty @Grigb got lost in action.

Absolutelly crazy. I hope Ukrainian members of this forum will be ok.

Edited October 17, 2022 by Beleg85

[Haiduk]

Well, 28 drones on Kyiv in two waves. 1 or 2 broke through in first wave at 7:00 anf 5 could break through in second wave about two hours later. One of them was shot down with rifles by police, but four fell on streets. Like Kraze already said they tried to hit old thermal elctric plant near Kyiv railway station. Looks like obly one drone hit the target, one more fell on the street nearby, third hit wasteland near railway station and fourth ruined half of old residential building. At this moment became knowingly about 3 dead and 3 injuried (all from ruined building), among them - pregnant woman. 

Approx hour ago or more three cruise missiles were approaching to Kyiv from NE (my familiar wrote in FB that a missile passed on the low altitude over their house in Chernihiv oblast toward Kyiv). Reportedly all missiles were shot down by fighter jets

First wave:

One shot down

Strike across the street from thermal electric plant. On first cadres of video Kyiv railway station building is seen

Old house before and after being hit

 

Old woman, rescued from ruined house. 18 people more were resqued from there.

Next one incoming

It is claimed as police shot down the drone, but as for me the drone just missed and fell on wasteland near thermal plant and railway station

 

 

Edited October 17, 2022 by Haiduk

[Beleg85]

Reportedly they attack Vinnytsia and even (for the first time I presume?) Kamienec Podolski. Deep inside Ukrainian territory.

[Haiduk]

@sburke

Colonel Fyodor Babayev, commander of 41st separate special forces detachment "Rus' "of Rosgvardiya (though, in other Russian sources it's figured as 35th ssfd), Simferopol, occupied Crimea, Southern military district of Rosgvardiya. Killed on 15th of October, likely on Kherson direction

 

[quakerparrot67]

On 10/15/2022 at 6:51 AM, LongLeftFlank said:

Comic book manuals and *shudder* reading is so, like 1985, Daddy-O. The Millenials and Gen Zer(o)s viddy the old YT....

 

good use of 'droogspeak', especially since clockwork slang was based on russian...

 

cheers,

rob

[quakerparrot67]

On 10/15/2022 at 7:36 AM, Haiduk said:

DNA-modified pigeon from secret US biolab in Ukraine. Their poo after contact with air turn out to HE substance with around-nuclear TNT equivalent. Several grams of this HE **** can reliase so much energy, like Excalibur warhead ) 

can this production technique be adapted to other avian sources? i've got a little blue poop factory who could make a significant contribution to ukraine's needs in  this regard.

 

cheers,

rob