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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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5 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Aftermath of shooting on firing range in Belgorod oblast. Reportedly during PKM firing practice two tajicks turned around and opened fire to the line of soldiers, awaiting own turn. Officially 11 dead, 15 wounded, unofficially 22 dead, 16 wounded

I wonder if the Tajiks were Russian citizens or guest workers.  I've read a few times RUMINT that Russia was rounding up non-citizen laborers to become cannon fodder.  This has, in part, caused a lot of guest workers to flee Russia, leaving many low level services without adequate manpower (I think you wrote about this a few pages ago).

Long ago there was a movie made in the US called "A Day Without A Mexican".  It examined what life would be like in southern California would be like if suddenly 100% of all legal and non-permanent resident immigrants from Mexico, Central, and South America suddenly disappeared.  Trash in the streets, nobody to take care of kids during the work day, all the restaurants closing, etc.  Putting aside the obvious political and Human Rights motivations for the movie, and the overall quality of it as a movie (it was meh... not great), it was relatively accurate.  Collectively they do a ton of important jobs that nobody wants to do.  I imagine this sort of thing is happening in Russia now.  The upper and middle classes must be feeling the impact of all the low wage workers leaving Russia.

Steve

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44 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Meanwhile, fronts have gone relatively dark to us.  Doesn't mean there's not fighting, just no news it seems.  Weather looks mostly dry over the coming week for both Kharkiv and Kherson, though some rain in Kharkiv region.  Hopefully UKR can find those weak spots they've been so good at locating and unhinge RU defensive lines.

Always darkest before it goes completely black....

 

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22 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Always darkest before it goes completely black....

 

Holy Moly!  the airplane isn't dead!  Like tank isn't dead!  Airplanes are, of course, sons of lesser gods relative to tanks, but this is a really welcome bit of news.  RU troops have to be absolutely terrified by this.  UKR untermenschen w air superiority????  And are increasing that advantage by knocking out more AA sites.  This is beautiful.

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About shooting on firing range

On the screens the story of shooting from wounded soldier. Of course it's just a story, but I will not be surprised if the cause of conflict was that, described under.

In short, among mobilized in this unit there were some number of Muslims, citizens of Russia, and three of them - tajik, azerbaidzhanian and adygean have written reports that they reject to participate in the war. After this unit commnader, lt.colonel Andrey Lapin lined up soldiers and delivered a speech on the theme  "this is a Holy War". This caused some turmoil among Muslims - tajiks said "This is not Holy War for us, Holy War is Dzhihad only - the war with infidels". 

Lt.colonel Lapin answered "Then Allah is a coward if he doesn't allow to fight for that country, to which you swore the oath". This caused big rage among mobilized Muslims and even some officers-Muslims were shocked. Between Russians and Muslims short hustle started, but officers could calm down soldiers and as if conflict was extinguished. But most offended tajiks decided to revenge and since 1,5 hours, when their unit was sent to firing range shot out Russians, preliminary adviced Muslims to stand aside (thouigh several Muslims, like and author of this post were wounded). All shooters were not mobilized, but contractors. Lt.colonel Lapin was killed first of all. Two tajiks were killed by warrant officer, who issued bulltes. In the moment of shooting he was in facility with ammunition and had a pistol. So, he came out and killed two tajiks - sen.sergeant Bikzot, and Anushe (rank not mentioned), the third tajik jr. sergeant Amizonda (whos documents I posted above) was wounded, but managed to escape and still hasn't been found.

This soldier said the third number of losses - 32 only dead (including both shooters) and he doesn't know how much wounded exactly and said "two helicopters were needed to transport them to hospital"

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   @sburke you can take into account lt.colonel Andrey Lapin, probably 138th MRB of 6th CAA, Westerm military district 

Edited by Haiduk
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33 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

About shooting on firing range

On the screens the story of shooting from wounded soldier. Of course it's just a story, but I will not be surprised if the cause of conflict was that, described under.

In short, among mobilized in this unit there were some number of Muslims, citizens of Russia, and three of them - tajik, azerbaidzhanian and adygean have written reports that they reject to participate in the war. After this unit commnader, lt.colonel Andrey Lapin lined up soldiers and delivered a speech on the theme  "this is a Holy War". This caused some turmoil among Muslims - tajiks said "This is not Holy War for us, Holy War is Dzhihad only - the war with infidels". 

Lt.colonel Lapin answered "Then Allah is a coward if he doesn't allow to fight for that country, to which you swore the oath". This caused big rage among mobilized Muslims and even some officers-Muslims were shocked. Between Russians and Muslims short hustle started, but officers could calm down soldiers and as if conflict was extinguished. But most offended tajiks decided to revenge and since 1,5 hours, when their unit was sent to firing range shot out Russians, preliminary adviced Muslims to stand aside (thouigh several Muslims, like and author of this post were wounded). All shooters were not mobilized, but contractors. Lt.colonel Lapin was killed first of all. Two tajiks were killed by warrant officer, who issued bulltes. In the moment of shooting he was in facility with ammunition and had a pistol. So, he came out and killed two tajiks - sen.sergeant Bikzot, and Anushe (rank not mentioned), the third tajik jr. sergeant Amizonda (whos documents I posted above) was wounded, but managed to escape and still hasn't been found.

This soldier said the third number of losses - 32 only dead (including both shooters) and he doesn't know how much wounded exactly and said "two helicopters were needed to transport them to hospital"

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   @sburke you can take into account lt.colonel Andrey Lapin, probably 138th MRB of 6th CAA, Westerm military district 

Yes, the Lapin family has no luck with Muslims. Lapin senior had a conflict with Kadyrov. Lapin Jr. has a conflict with the Tajiks. Let's see what will be his future fate after an emergency in his unit.

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8 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

Yes, the Lapin family has no luck with Muslims. Lapin senior had a conflict with Kadyrov. Lapin Jr. has a conflict with the Tajiks. Let's see what will be his future fate after an emergency in his unit.

The son is Col. Denis Lapin, commander of the 1st Guards Tank Regiment, but maybe someone else from same family?

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12 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

Yes, the Lapin family has no luck with Muslims. Lapin senior had a conflict with Kadyrov. Lapin Jr. has a conflict with the Tajiks. Let's see what will be his future fate after an emergency in his unit.

Wasn't he Denis Lapin, "awarded hero" from Chernihov offensive that was his son several times mentioned in this topic long time ago? Andrey was also his son?

A good sign for future anyway, ethnic and religious tensions within Russian military will probably rise significantly.

Sorry double content with @akd.

Edited by Beleg85
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1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

Holy Moly!  the airplane isn't dead!  Like tank isn't dead!  Airplanes are, of course, sons of lesser gods relative to tanks, but this is a really welcome bit of news.  RU troops have to be absolutely terrified by this.  UKR untermenschen w air superiority????  And are increasing that advantage by knocking out more AA sites.  This is beautiful.

I travelled a bit around for the weekend. Let's say at a place I went to I couldn't quite relax in silence due to all the Su-25s and Su-27s going back and forth nearby.

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X Files.

 

2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Other sources write this lt.col. Lapin just a namesame of Denis Lapin

Ok, thanks. So he may be the same person. It s interesting, as may (or may not) be connected to growing importance of Kayrov and muslims within the army. Not to everyone liking.

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16 minutes ago, kraze said:

I travelled a bit around for the weekend. Let's say at a place I went to I couldn't quite relax in silence due to all the Su-25s and Su-27s going back and forth nearby.

Ahh, but there's also something relaxing in the sound of jet fighters, especially when they are on your side.

 

* well, maybe more comforting than relaxing.

 

Wouldn't it be nice to see something like this again?

220px-Ukrainian_Su-27s_during_a_Bomber_T

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This is Ukrainain source, but let it be for a while... Islam Belokiev, press-secreter of UKR Chechen volunteer battalion named after sheikh Mansur claimed on 15th Oct near Samashki settlement of Achkoi-Martan district of Checnya a shooting took place between mobilized and Kadyrov-troops. There were about 10 refuzeniks, which after skirmish escaped from the range.

Officially this unconfirmed, maybe local informators or relatives handed over this  informatin to pro-UKR chechens. Or this is just UKR PsyOps

FfNpTcHWYAQgjB0?format=jpg&name=large

On 15th Oct the shooting happened between 

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44 minutes ago, Sojourner said:

Ahh, but there's also something relaxing in the sound of jet fighters, especially when they are on your side.

 

* well, maybe more comforting than relaxing.

 

Wouldn't it be nice to see something like this again?

220px-Ukrainian_Su-27s_during_a_Bomber_T

Admittedly hearing your own jets (and seeing them and making out silhouettes) is ultimately a very calming thing. I think I had quite a good night's sleep in a while after that. Beautiful beasts.

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1 minute ago, kraze said:

Admittedly hearing your own jets (and seeing them and making out silhouettes) is ultimately a very calming thing. I think I had quite a good night's sleep in a while after that. Beautiful beasts.

After I've seen aerial attack on Brovary Feb 26th from my balcony and heard the terrible howl of jet, passed on low-altitude in the night, I twitch to this time from any loud howling sounds, which similar to jet %) And hate bikers on their damned Sudzukies and Hondas, which fly along the street before curfew or even during it. 

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