How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[NamEndedAllen]

5 hours ago, dan/california said:

The one thing it all points to is that the west needs to crank ammo production up to near wartime levels for the foreseeable future. From 5.56 to ATACMS and cruise missiles they need to pour concrete and order machinery to put out at least five times the current volume. Worst case scenario it is cheap insurance, and there will be enough ammo to REALLY train for a decade or two. There is a heck of an argument for increasing retention and recruiting bonuses, too. 

Yes- this war has demonstrated how much vaster than anticipated the requirements for artillery rates in particular, and other munitions as well. Perun had a typically in depth video last week that worked through this issue while analyzing Ukraine’s vision for its announced 2023 military requirements. Your point was underscored. He did point out that voters in democracies understandably have not been enthusiastic to increase spending for storing vast quantity of munitions around the world - that may never be needed. The rub is when they are needed! 
 

The war also has made glaringly evident the need for well-trained infantry. 

[Zeleban]

8 hours ago, akd said:

Way more cloud cover and rain recently, so not particularly useful.

I must say the opposite. Now, almost throughout Ukraine, there is a warm and sunny period, Indian summer. The temperature during the day averages 15C, it is warm and sunny outside. This period usually lasts until the end of October, beginning of November. Then it gets cold and rainy.

[Taliessyn]

7 hours ago, dan/california said:

Just nationalize it, and then send him back to South Africa...

I can think of 14 other ways the U.S. government can make him a lot less wealthy if it sets it mind to it.  Cutting off the electric vehicle subsidy for any car costing more than forty grand comes immediately to mind. Can we charge him with a Logan act violation while we are at it?

We don't want him back thanks. In fact we'll send you his conman of a father, Errol, so you can complete the set. 

So discounting a full on nuclear response if one of the so called "Red Lines" are crossed (which seems more bluster than anything else) - how likely is it that Putin actually carries through with orchestrating a meltdown of Zaporizhzhya? Seems like he's been using it as a "hybrid" threat for a while now - but it also seems much more likely than an overt attack. Scorched earth or more bluster?

 

[Zeleban]

Some french vibes

[TheVulture]

Ukraine announces the liberation of several settlements in Kherson

Novovasilivka, Novohryhorivka, New Kamyanka, Trifonivka and Chervony in the Beryslav district of the Kherson region.

https://t.me/info_zp/18378

Since these are all pretty much level with Dudchany then I suspect they were essentially abandoned by Russia over a week ago, and this more a case of Ukraine moving in to what was no man's land, possibly as the start of a new push.

[Taranis]

34 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

Some french vibes

This year for Valentine's Day, buy her a CAESAR 

[Letter from Prague]

Huh.

 

[kevinkin]

1 hour ago, TheVulture said:

liberation of several settlements in Kherson

AP/ABC mention those towns in this article as well:

https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/ukraine-recaptures-settlements-kherson-region-91371986

Also, using a "truck loaded with explosives" as the bridge weapon as a matter of fact.

[LongLeftFlank]

1.  Attrition (Heliosrunner, 1 hour ago, UA staff report).

 

 

 2. Antidrone?

3. Our mobik heroes in action? Textbook tank + motor rifle assault, blowing the hell out of what looks like a completely empty hedgerow. 

Still worth the 3 x 2 min clips: a CM game come to life!  Except the scenario designer forgot to include BLUE forces lol.

4.  'Nother for the scenario design / flavor object files....

... aw hell, I can't resist.

That's for making me read 3 pages about Elon's brain f*rt.

 

Edited October 12, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Bulletpoint]

3 hours ago, chrisl said:

More evidence that it was a missile that hit the bridge: Reuters

This link has no evidence that it was a missile. Did you paste the wrong link?

[Teknikov]

3 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

This link has no evidence that it was a missile. Did you paste the wrong link?

I think he was being ironic. I.e. if Russia says/does something, any other answer must be true.

Edited October 12, 2022 by Teknikov

[Bulletpoint]

Just now, Teknikov said:

I think he was being ironic.

Who knows. It's difficult to read irony online when it could just as well be a copy/paste mistake.

There's already so much info to keep up with that it would be better if people just stated their comments plainly, I think.

[Taranis]

"Ukrainian gunners fire at a frontline position in the Donetsk region on October 11, 2022. ANATOLII STEPANOV / AFP"

*seems 2S3 Akatsiya

[LongLeftFlank]

BTW, resort towns and bar districts here in Asia (Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand) now have a noticeable influx of Russian men in their 20s and 30s.  Sat next to a couple of loud but happy drunks last night.

At least they're spending money and not killing anyone, including themselves.

[Beleg85]

Interesting...

another missile strike on airfield?

 

 

Edited October 12, 2022 by Beleg85

[LongLeftFlank]

5.  Kupyansk zone of control is expanding (last bits of Kharkiv Oblast).

6.  Mic drop

7.  June - October

 

Edited October 12, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Ithikial_AU]

Belarus considering joining the war now? Seriously?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-10-12/what-does-belarus-deploying-soldiers-with-russia-mean-for-ukrain/101525768

[LongLeftFlank]

33 minutes ago, Ithikial_AU said:

Belarus considering joining the war now? Seriously?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-10-12/what-does-belarus-deploying-soldiers-with-russia-mean-for-ukrain/101525768

Well by any normal definition, they're already belligerents.

The Belarusian Armed Forces are largely a mobilisational force. Their manpower is at around 50-60% of the required peacetime strength. To reach 100%, they'd need to mobilise at least 20k men. 

Operationally, they are subordinated to the Russian Western MD. They don't have Land Forces Command, and they do not conduct exercises above battalion level, but even these are rare. They mostly train platoons and companies. More forces are deployed for Russia-organised drills such as Zapad or Union Shield. 

Currently, they maintain some presence near the border with Ukraine (1000 km long). Size varies depending on the source. Ukrainians claim Belarusians deployed up to 7 BTGs, but we assess these are actually CTGs, which would correspond with their level of training and capability.

Given that the Belarusian Armed Forces are a mobilisation force, given they would need to deploy a lot of personnel towards the border, create concentration areas, etc., I am certain we will be able to pick up changes in the Belarusian posture.

Hmm....

 

 

Edited October 12, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[billbindc]

9 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Mid terms are still not certain, yet.  A lot can happen in a month. Even then, the Senate, both parties, is very pro UKR. A republican Congress can get its knickers in a twist all it wants,  but the Senate will stay the course. 

Do not underestimate how loony tunes the budget fight is likely to be:

https://www.axios.com/2022/09/29/debt-limit-republicans-house

[The_Capt]

18 hours ago, Combatintman said:

For those scoffing at Russia preparing defences prompted by the Tweet showing a linear obstacle being created, I might suggest that many would say something along the lines of "they've had months to prepare defences but didn't bother ... how amateurish" had they not done so - in fact there are a bunch of posts to this effect on this thread regarding ground that Ukrainian forces have recently liberated.  Integrated obstacles are a key element of any deliberate defence and are as relevant in the 21st Century as they have been since the advent of warfare as I'm sure @The_Capt will pitch in and confirm.  If this debate is to remain informed, we need to beware the confirmation bias that is evident from this criticism of Russia preparing defences as well as other related influences.  Objective and informed analysis should be our watchwords.

Sorry for delay, I am in the middle of the North Atlantic right now.

Those were not fighting trenches, they were anti-veh/armour complex obstacles.  That one ditch by the rail head is actually quite brilliant as mineploughs will be stopped by the rail, and anything cresting the rail rise has to deal with an AT ditch very exposed.  It may even cause a serious problem with explosive breaching.

In fact almost all of that video was major AT obstacles being built.  An AT minefield around those ditches is going to be about 400m deep and can be kms long, covered by observation (UAS no doubt) and fires.  To traditional mech warfare these are pure poison and an enemy with time, space and resources to build them is not good news.  First I have seen of this in war, or at least to this extent.

Question will be whether or not they actually work as well as intended.  If the UA is going with light infantry-UAS-arty as the primary offensive mechanism then these types of obstacles will not do as good a job - the Russians are clearly building defensive belts for how they (and we) fight, not necessarily how the UA have been.  Infiltration, isolation and precision hammering may be able to get through these much faster and cheaper; however, we simply do not know that for sure.  If the UA tries a traditional heavy assault on these, it is going to get costly very fast - and we are back to the liabilities of heavy in this war.  Even the weak RA ISR will spot a complex breaching op from, well back, and massed artillery on the choke points of the breach are very bad news (as the RA has already learned).

My sense is that dismounted infantry infiltration of those obstacles along with precision fires will be needed first - along with a pretty good idea of RA weak points - to create a bridgehead of some sort.  Along with deep precision strikes to interdict any counter moves force because this will be a slower process.  And then try for the mech break in, with another light force for the break out, much as they did back at Kharkiv.

The central question will be time.  Can the UA use this distributed method faster than the RA can respond?  If yes, attrition to maneuver still holds.  If not, we could be looking at Defensive primacy at least in this area, unless the UA can find a gap or work around.

Edited October 12, 2022 by The_Capt

[acrashb]

Behind a beatable paywall:

https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/10/11/how-the-west-is-helping-ukraine-beat-russias-missiles

 

[A Canadian Cat]

On 10/11/2022 at 2:50 AM, Zeleban said:

hundreds of Germans go to rallies against the supply of weapons to Ukraine. Where does such a wave of protests come from,

I wonder how much direction along with funding these guys get from Putin's regime. Remember when the USSR fell a lot of nutty radical left wing groups just kinda dried up and faded away. Without their cash source they really could not operate. Personally I hope for the collapse of Putin's regime and at least a partial breakup of the Russian Federation so the same thing can happen to many of these nutty and disruptive right wing groups can also fade away.

Fingers corssed.

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

In fact almost all of that video was major AT obstacles being built.  An AT minefield around those ditches is going to be about 400m deep and can be kms long, covered by observation (UAS no doubt) and fires.... 

What were we all saying about a thousand pages ago about 'digging in like ticks'?

If Putin can make this 'low tech' war work well enough to avoid losing further large swathes of these lands (other than Kherson bridgehead) to the UA through the winter, that's enough of a 'win' for him to sell to his numb, glum populace. He has 'gathered the Russian lands' of Novorossiya and repelled NATOUkronazi aggression.

Expect him and his foreign tools to push ever harder for peace talks, while also trying different pressure tactics on Ukraine and Europe: power grids, transport, cyber, etc.

....That is, if his battered army and economy can sustain the upcoming siege.  Our thesis here, of course, is that they can't, and that each attempt will dissolve into a sh*tshow even quicker than the last....

****

Keenly awaiting the next surprise out of Ukraine's bag of tricks! 

I am still guessing that it involves seizing air superiority and eviscerating RU artillery in the land bridge in 4 days of precision guided 'shock and awe', followed by a dozen brigades relentlessly blasting and hacking the best regular formations RU has left into doomed, unsuppliable pockets.

Edited October 12, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Pete Wenman]

From here

https://www.facebook.com/butusov.yuriy/posts/pfbid023oXx9zwGmAAVb4Cx4wwV3FN21sEqo3eBaahqWVqvv4FWVPk2o8qQhHtsEQSGhzTtl

Quote

Russia issued an order for the restoration and modernization of 800 Soviet tanks T-62.
According to a statement by State Duma Deputy Gurulev, the 103rd tank repair plant has been ordered to restore and modernize 800 old Soviet T-62 tanks within three years.
It is announced that all tanks will receive thermal imaging targets and additional shed protection. Previously on tanks t-62 m teplovízori didn't install.
The plant report shows that the tank restoration process will take a long time as components will have to be partially manufactured, carry out a substantial amount of restoration work. You can see the engine that was clearly kept without proper conditions.
Russia does not have the resources and technology to wage war mainly with high-precision weapons, so it is preparing to restore all available stock of tank hulls for war by mobilization army with old but mass weapons. This is due to high tank losses during aggression, new tanks supply can't cover the losses, to arm the mobilized troops need mass weapons. Russia is unable to increase production of modern technology, so it orders tanks that can be repaired by Soviet-style technologies.
The amount of Russian iron Ukraine has to oppose exclusively quality. The quality of management and use of high-precision weapons and intelligence equipment, in the first place.

Obviously this is easier said then done, and with a long lead time regardless. However if there is no internal device by which Putin can be deposed, and he has destroyed the norms by which wars are generally ended are we now facing a never ending war where Russia just refuses to accept its beaten. A lot of misery for a lot of people if that becomes the case.

P

[acrashb]

For those still thinking about Nuke, apparently Colin Powell did so during the Gulf War and was appalled by the number of tactical nukes required to be effective.  So anything by Putin is likely to be symbolic.