How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Kinophile]

 

 

[Thomm]

2 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

 

 

I am still scratching my head: Is it considered normal these days to provide the opponent with detailed battle damage assessment via social media?!

 

[Zeleban]

The situation with the instrumental vision largely depends on the supplies by volunteers both from our side and from the Russian side. It is true that special operations forces are primarily supplied with these devices, and it is quite expected that thanks to the sanctions, the situation with night vision devices in the Ukrainian army is much better. I saw several reviews of captured Russian thermal imagers and they largely consist of components from Western companies that are assembled at Russian factories. Here is a good example of such a review (without English subtitles) is the SYCH-3 civilian thermal imager supplied by Russian volunteers for the army: 

 

[Zeleban]

But the captured device is much more interesting - this is the device for adjusting artillery fire "Irony". This device has a built-in GPS system, a laser range finder and a gyroscope, it can determine its location and give the coordinates of the target to which the crosshair is directed and can transmit these coordinates to its artillery via Wi-Fi. This device was captured at the very beginning of the war from a dead airborne intelligence officer. This is a very rare device in the Russian troops and it has never been seen among the trophies again

There is a Macron on the video intro, it is not difficult to guess that this device is made from French components: 

 

Edited October 11, 2022 by Zeleban

[sburke]

but comrade look at the bright side.  With traffic now restricted our limited supply of artillery rounds will last longer!

[Zeleban]

26 minutes ago, potato4212 said:

what is the Night vison and thermal optic situation for both sides?

It seems that the special forces on both sides seem well equipped with night vison although the Ukrainians seem to have better top end equipment. how common is night vison in this conflict, and what night vison and thermal optics are in widespread use? I would assume that Ukrainians have a lot of u.s supplied pvs-14s and perhaps some pvs-31s . Do the Ukrainians  have any domestic night vison? What night vison do the Russians use and how does it compare with western kit? Finally how much kit is being bought off the commercial market?  

As for the Ukrainian devices As for the night vision devices of the Ukrainian army, any models that can be found on the market are supplied by volunteers. The pvs-14 as well as the Archer thermal imagers are especially popular. It should also be noted that our special forces have GPNVG-18 panoramic night vision devices, which were centrally supplied, in the order of military assistance from the United States. 

In general, we can say that the situation with night vision devices in the Russian army is deteriorating, while in the Ukrainian army this situation is improving.

[Battlefront.com]

Check out this BBC article about the cause of the bridge blast:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63192757?fbclid=IwAR0qAgDlsEKrrQ9hi5N6n1kqBuvafEvddf-Db1OnqNAWbodCevuOeOLxaFk

The basic tone is pretty good.  It's saying "slow down a bit!  Let's not immediately rush to accept Russia's official explanation", which is the first time I've seen that in the MSM.  Kudos.  However, the boat bomb theory is one of the easiest to rule out. 

Seems like they grabbed one guy who had a different opinion, said "wow, that's so interesting!" and went to press without getting other opinions.  Pretty sloppy reporting.

Steve

[Zeleban]

With regards to Germany's support for Ukraine, hundreds of Germans go to rallies against the supply of weapons to Ukraine. Where does such a wave of protests come from, because the size of military assistance to germinia is minimal. In any case, I have not seen anything like this in the US, Britain or France.

 

[Zeleban]

I wonder if there were similar protests in Germany when it supplied equipment and parts for Russian weapons. In any case, the main thing for us is not the supply of German weapons to Ukraine, but the prevention of the supply of German weapons and spare parts for Russia

[Zeleban]

I have to temporarily leave the discussion, as after yesterday's strike, electricity is being delivered strictly on schedule. I'll be back as soon as the power comes back.

[Letter from Prague]

Another attack on power plant 

 

I want to stress that this is not just attack on Ukraine. Ukrainian power plants are now connected to EU power grid, and several were taken offline or stopped selling electricity, which is already scarce and expensive in Europe. So it is not just attack on Ukraine, but continuation of energy war on whole of Europe.

Of course, the lack of reaction from EU countries (with lack of reaction to the NordStream attack and train sabotage in Germany) really shows that Europe is completely unwilling to defend itself.

I would even guess most countries politicians (for sure Germany, Italy, France) want to stop helping Ukraine and share Putin's objective of hurting their countries with energy, so the can stop.

[Taranis]

49 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

With regards to Germany's support for Ukraine, hundreds of Germans go to rallies against the supply of weapons to Ukraine. Where does such a wave of protests come from, because the size of military assistance to germinia is minimal. In any case, I have not seen anything like this in the US, Britain or France.

 

Personally, I'm not that surprised. They are profound idiots but like everywhere, there are always people who are against aid to Ukraine or who believe Russia's lies (US plot etc...).
I think the ties between Russia and Germany are stronger than between Russia and FRA-UK-US.

I guess it's historical first, with the post-WW2 occupation, GDR etc. There are always people (a minority) who regret the GDR. We didn't have any physical contact further west like Germany had with the Russians. Perhaps the presence of a still existing US military base plays into the animosity of some? (simple guess) We haven't had any in France since around 1966. I think there are as many nonconformists, conspirators and opponents of the US as there are pro-Russian radicals.

Secondly and partly thanks to the historical part, there is the economic link which has developed in recent years (Nordstream etc) and the opposition of some would be mainly for their own comfort.

Take care mate!

[kraze]

25 minutes ago, Taranis said:

Personally, I'm not that surprised. They are profound idiots but like everywhere, there are always people who are against aid to Ukraine or who believe Russia's lies (US plot etc...).
I think the ties between Russia and Germany are stronger than between Russia and FRA-UK-US.

I guess it's historical first, with the post-WW2 occupation, GDR etc. There are always people (a minority) who regret the GDR. We didn't have any physical contact further west like Germany had with the Russians. Perhaps the presence of a still existing US military base plays into the animosity of some? (simple guess) We haven't had any in France since around 1966. I think there are as many nonconformists, conspirators and opponents of the US as there are pro-Russian radicals.

Secondly and partly thanks to the historical part, there is the economic link which has developed in recent years (Nordstream etc) and the opposition of some would be mainly for their own comfort.

Take care mate!

Those cases are due to traumas of russian occupation of half of the country during 1945-1989, which didn't just go anywhere. Nation-spanning Stockholm syndrome is a very hard thing to beat, we in Ukraine unfortunately know it all too well.

[RockinHarry]

1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

With regards to Germany's support for Ukraine, hundreds of Germans go to rallies against the supply of weapons to Ukraine. Where does such a wave of protests come from, because the size of military assistance to germinia is minimal. In any case, I have not seen anything like this in the US, Britain or France.

 

It´s the usual scum of selfish folks who just look for themselves und cry out on every opportunity. What you see there is largely the same when it came to refugees (2015 crisis) or restrictive Covid provisions applied by our government at last. But that´s democracy. And every so called demo has its counter demos as well and this got to be recognized even if less of it is shown in (our) media. The large majority of germans stays with UKR and bears the "sacrifices" related to Putlers adventures. Off course awakening is slow considering germans weren´t directly involved in any war since 1945. Since I´ve lots of friends who are equally minded I know I´m not talking for myself here. Slava Ukraini!

[Haiduk]

2 hours ago, potato4212 said:

what is the Night vison and thermal optic situation for both sides?

It seems that the special forces on both sides seem well equipped with night vison although the Ukrainians seem to have better top end equipment. how common is night vison in this conflict, and what night vison and thermal optics are in widespread use? I would assume that Ukrainians have a lot of u.s supplied pvs-14s and perhaps some pvs-31s . Do the Ukrainians  have any domestic night vison? What night vison do the Russians use and how does it compare with western kit? Finally how much kit is being bought off the commercial market?  

We have own domestic thermal sights and monoculars from TVT company, which products are known under name Archer (use FLIR technologies): https://archer.ua/ua/catalog/index/teplovizijni-priladi-vijskovogo-priznacenna-en

But the need of NV and thermals so large, that big amount of equipment is supplied by crowdfunding  and equipment can be very different. During ATO Belarusian NV and thermals Pulsar and Russian NV Yukon were being bought in big number, but now I suppose, we don't buy this equipment. 

The saturation of NV/thermals equipment can be various even inside brigade - all depends from platoons and companies commanders and soldiers initiative. Before the war in average many platoons of mech./motorized brigades had thermal sights for PKM machine-gun and thermal camera for observing. NV sights like PVS-14 mostly were shared among air-assault/marines troops, SOF and recon units of mech.troops. In 2018 I read that in some air-assault battalions each squad had three PVS-14 

Edited October 11, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

I have to temporarily leave the discussion, as after yesterday's strike, electricity is being delivered strictly on schedule. I'll be back as soon as the power comes back.

Yesterday evening I've seen 2-3 hours blackout in neighbour residential blocks, but in our blocks electriciity is not turned off. 

[Zeleban]

1 minute ago, Haiduk said:

Yesterday evening I've seen 2-3 hours blackout in neighbour residential blocks, but in our blocks electriciity is not turned off. 

Yesterday there was no light for about 7 hours from 11.00 to 16.00. Then they turned it off again from 19.00 to 22.00. Today, surprisingly, the light is not turned off, despite the fact that they have drawn up shutdown schedules.

[poesel]

1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

With regards to Germany's support for Ukraine, hundreds of Germans go to rallies against the supply of weapons to Ukraine. Where does such a wave of protests come from, because the size of military assistance to germinia is minimal. In any case, I have not seen anything like this in the US, Britain or France.

'hundreds' protesting in a democracy of 80 millions is basically nothing. About 10% of the population adhere to far right ideas which, in Germany, include Nazis, Pro-Russians, Anti-Vaxxers, Qanon and the like. That is a potential group of 8 million people.
It would be a noticeable movement with 5 digit protestors and I would worry with 6 digits.

TL;DR: there are idiots everywhere

1 hour ago, Letter from Prague said:

Another attack on power plant

...

Of course, the lack of reaction from EU countries (with lack of reaction to the NordStream attack and train sabotage in Germany) really shows that Europe is completely unwilling to defend itself.

In a way, yes. 'Unwilling' may be a bit harsh. I'd go for 'has not realized it is war'

1 hour ago, Letter from Prague said:

I would even guess most countries politicians (for sure Germany, Italy, France) want to stop helping Ukraine and share Putin's objective of hurting their countries with energy, so the can stop.

No, sorry, but that is really wrong. Again, speaking for Germany, this is a minority of about 15% (10% extreme right, 5% extreme left).

Of course, no one is happy about energy cost, but a discussion about stopping help for Ukraine to fix that issue simply does not exist.

The one and only reason we do not send more weapons, is fear of WWIII (don't discuss that with me...)

28 minutes ago, kraze said:

Those cases are due to traumas of russian occupation of half of the country during 1945-1989, which didn't just go anywhere. Nation-spanning Stockholm syndrome is a very hard thing to beat, we in Ukraine unfortunately know it all too well.

The GDR was occupied by the Russians and every mayor decision had to go through them. But for most of the part, the East-Germans did the occupation unto themselves (and effectively, of course...). I guess, very generally, the Russians were the least hated in the GDR of all East-Block countries.

A lot more changed in West-Germany after the 3rd Reich than did in the East. That difference is still very visible after 30 years.

Edited October 11, 2022 by poesel

[Zeleban]

 

[Haiduk]

The smoke has flew from Kyiv reservoir - the missile intercepted. No boom was heard. According to reports two other were approaching from SW, but also were intercepted. Over Brovary district (east from Kyiv) Shakhed-136 was spotted, no reports yet about shot down or impact. 

Many reports that Russian cuise missiles today often change own routes or even circle - probably Russians try to spot AD assets to correct corridors for main launch. Well, looks like I will not go to work today again %)

Edited October 11, 2022 by Haiduk

[Zeleban]

1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

With regards to Germany's support for Ukraine, hundreds of Germans go to rallies against the supply of weapons to Ukraine. Where does such a wave of protests come from, because the size of military assistance to germinia is minimal. In any case, I have not seen anything like this in the US, Britain or France.

Although perhaps I'm wrong, here's a similar video from Washington.

 

[Zeleban]

Video of HIMARS strike on Russian military convoy

[Zeleban]

It would be interesting to have something similar in CMBS

[kevinkin]

The Grand Finale for Russia? 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-war-at-a-turning-point-with-rapid-escalation-of-conflict/ar-AA12OfId

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-troops-pour-into-belarus-by-the-trainload/ar-AA12OtwC?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=b07a7da1241f43d893a098ab147c86f0

BELARUSIAN PRESIDENT: TIME HAS COME FOR EUROPE TO GIVE ITSELF A 'MORAL CLEANSING'

Edited October 11, 2022 by kevinkin

[Elmar Bijlsma]

34 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

Video of HIMARS strike on Russian military convoy

Worth noting that a good chunk of the vehicles were towing others.

One more sign that the Russian army is largely dysfunctional.