How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[LongLeftFlank]

4 hours ago, sburke said:

Ukraine’s Counteroffensives Appear To Be Part Of A Much Bigger Plan—To Divide The Russian Army (msn.com)

Martin anticipates an eventual third Ukrainian counteroffensive, one that launches from Zaporizhia—midway between Kherson and Donbas—toward Mariupol, an historic port city that the Russians destroyed and occupied this spring. The idea, Martin explained, is Ukraine “using its strategic reserve to sever the Russian armed forces in Ukraine into two pieces that cannot mutually reinforce.”

I dunno mate, at this point it seems like the UA is simply dismantling the RA opportunistically wherever it encounters them, kind of like the Red Army during the Lvov-Sandomierz operations that culminated in the Brody pocket (Steve @Battlefront.com, that being one pocket the Germans did *not* break out of in any good order).

Whether the Ivans attack, hedgehog, dig in or fall back simply doesn't seem to make a difference.

Collapse?

 

Edited October 4, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Zeleban]

Starosillia.

I think that all the territory north of Davidov Brid has already been liberated.

Edited October 4, 2022 by Zeleban

[Huba]

1 minute ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Martin anticipates an eventual third Ukrainian counteroffensive, one that launches from Zaporizhia—midway between Kherson and Donbas—toward Mariupol, an historic port city that the Russians destroyed and occupied this spring. The idea, Martin explained, is Ukraine “using its strategic reserve to sever the Russian armed forces in Ukraine into two pieces that cannot mutually reinforce.”

I dunno mate, at this point it seems like the UA is simply dismantling the RA opportunistically wherever it encounters them, kind of like the Red Army during the Lvov-Sandomierz operations that culminated in the Brody pocket (Steve @Battlefront.com, that being one pocket the Germans did *not* break out of in any good order).

Whether the Ivans attack, hedgehog, dig in or fall back simply doesn't seem to make a difference.

Collapse?

If they went for the Mariupol and not Melitopol though, and managed to get the Kerch bridge/ ferries, it would create a situation similar to the one seen in northern Kherson but on a much bigger scale. RU would have to support whole remaining landbridge and Crimea through the port of Novorossyisk - a tough call, to say the least.

 

Just now, Zeleban said:

Starosillia.

I think that all the territory north of Davidov Breed has already been liberated.

The only hope for RU is that they quietly withdrew as many men as possible already. Otherwise this will be a WW2 scale event.

[The_MonkeyKing]

Just a reminder on the size of the area.

[Grigb]

12 minutes ago, Huba said:

Davidyv Brid liberated!

 

I would say rats are running out of encirclement.

[Huba]

Just now, Grigb said:

I would say rats are running out of encirclement.

Question is, can they swim? 

[kraze]

You gotta love how Rybar specifically marked Davydiv Brid as "failed Ukrainian offense" just 3 hours ago.

I guess whenever there's a special dedicated mark on russian maps - it means "we are totally effed"

[The_MonkeyKing]

Just now, Huba said:

Question is, can they swim? 

distances are so long that Russians are really starting to run out of space only if this Northern half collapses.

[Huba]

Just now, The_MonkeyKing said:

distances are so long that Russians are really starting to run out of space only if this Northern half collapses.

True, but I think we are about to witness it. RU is supposed to have a defensive line spanning somewhere from Beryslav to the west to Inhulets river. I think they are falling back to it right now - if it holds, they still have prospects to evacuate considerable number of men. If it does not hold though...

[LongLeftFlank]

13 minutes ago, Huba said:

If they went for the Mariupol and not Melitopol though, and managed to get the Kerch bridge/ ferries, it would create a situation similar to the one seen in northern Kherson but on a much bigger scale. RU would have to support whole remaining landbridge and Crimea through the port of Novorossyisk - a tough call, to say the least.

 

The only hope for RU is that they quietly withdrew as many men as possible already. Otherwise this will be a WW2 scale event.

Yes, as you guys know I am about the last regular on this thread to be overoptimistic, but this starts to look like the 8th Army operations on Luzon in 1945, where every attack no matter how whacky simply couldn't seem to go wrong.  Until they hit urban Manila 

1. Hey, let's drop a battalion of paras on the west tip of Corregidor at the exact moment we take the boat landing; 
2. Hold my beer!  Let's airdrop another battalion flawlessly along the rim of the Tagaytay volcano crater, cutting the one road to the Nasugbu beachhead.
3. That's nothing! How about we and a bunch of newly recruited (but extremely enthusiastic to kill Japanese) Filipinos launch a night raid across a lake to secure a POW camp)?

.... At this point, announcement of an amphibious coup de main seizing Sebastopol or Perekop wouldn't even surprise me.

Edited October 4, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[The_MonkeyKing]

5 minutes ago, Huba said:

True, but I think we are about to witness it. RU is supposed to have a defensive line spanning somewhere from Beryslav to the west to Inhulets river. I think they are falling back to it right now - if it holds, they still have prospects to evacuate considerable number of men. If it does not hold though...

We should probably compare this to the initial Harkiv attack.

How far Ukraine went and how much it needed to pause for before continuing.

Similar laws might apply here

[Huba]

Just now, The_MonkeyKing said:

We should probably compare this to the initial Harkiv attack.

How far Ukraine went and how much it needed to pause for before continuing.

Similar laws might apply here

There's 60 km from Balaklyia to Kupyansk. There's 50km from Davidyv Brid to Nova Kakhovka. So...

[Butschi]

In all of this I miss the Ukrainian side of the equation. Do we have any reliable information about the current state of the Ukrainian forces? Losses, supplies, ammo,
reserves, etc.? Is Ukraine just opportunistic at the moment and exploits weaknesses of the Russian army but not pushing too hard or are they pushing their forces to the limit in order to take what is possible before the end of the campaign season and the inevitable standstill until spring?

Aren't the predictions about how long it will take to take X and where the next offensive will go just speculations without this kind of information?

[akd]

Close fight in a fortified position somewhere:

 

[Huba]

Reportedly RU left the whole Inhulets line (at least north of UA former central bridgehead.

 

[Probus]

Any chance that Ukraine could push through to the throat of the Crimea on the Southern front and block all the RA retreating forces?

I've also heard from a couple sources that the USA is giving the AFU HE HIMARS for anti-personnel use against the new 300,000 mobilized Russians.  Anyone else heard about this?

(This is after the discussion on nukes.  Please don't start that up again...)

Edited October 4, 2022 by Probus
Added Link to HE HIMARS

[Huba]

New Rybar map. Most of RU positions in "contested area" are already under UA control, as proven by a stream of incoming videos.

[Grigb]

Meanwhile I would like to get back to Kreminna situation.

If you remember few days ago, I posted UKR rumor with two pincers toward Kreminna. North one - from Nevske toward Kreminna-Svatove road and Southern one toward Kreminna-Rubezhne road.  It looks like it was not a rumor, but UKR  intensions/plan. 

RU believe the main UKR attack against Kreminna is aimed at Chernopopivka:

It looks exactly like the Northern attack from UKR rumor. Why is it aimed at Chernopopivka? Because there are hills that dominate surrounding areas, for example hill 160.7. Let's look at the terrain:

And now the photo of that hill from across the valley

Defence in front of Kreminna and defense of Kreminna itself is irrelevant once UKR take Chernopopivka and hills (RU opinion). Currently RU do not control these settlements (yes, looks like their situation with reserves is that bad but they hope to send there reinforcements ASAP). Also, they claim there are no UKR forces there (I do not believe them - at least one Dagger should be already there). 

And given precarious situation with Kreminna one of the most likely routes to retreat is road to Rubezhne. And this is exactly where the Southern pincer was aimed. 

In short - UKR plan for Kreminna seems to threaten it by taking hills at Chernopopivka and then cutting road to Rubizhne (for example at Stara Krasnyanka). Once it is done the whole RU grouping in Kreminna is in trap - the area behind Kreminna was devastated by fire in 1996. Good place to catch some Nazi rats. 

[Huba]

3 minutes ago, Grigb said:

In short - UKR plan for Kreminna seems to threaten it by taking hills at Chernopopivka and then cutting road to Rubizhne (for example at Stara Krasnyanka).

Do you think this is doable without capturing the whole Pryvilla salient? Assuming RU have enough strength to set up reasonable defences in Kreminna (big if...), I'd think they would dig the trenches up to a river itself.

[LongLeftFlank]

27 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

We should probably compare this to the initial Harkiv attack.

How far Ukraine went and how much it needed to pause for before continuing.

Similar laws might apply here

So... I know the Finns are about as non-imperialist-minded as any white people who ever lived.  But would there be any interest up there in, umm 'sponsoring' Karelia and Petsamo?

Extending remarks: at a guess, the ancient Arctic peoples of.... the entire Arctic shoreline, Uralia and maybe around to Sakhalin would jump at a chance to (re)join Finland and the EU, as a Eurasian version of Nunavut?

Given, frankly, that the alternative for them is brutal Chinese colonisation a la Uighurs, and they know that perfectly well.

Russian-majority Murmansk, Archangel and Yekaterinburg could also be open to reasonable offers.

(St. Petersburg would seem better aligned with a 'Novgorod Republic', under Baltic sponsorship)

*****

No, seriously guys, I have had to skim pages and pages of 20 flavours of nuclear doomsday and Russian orcish Götterdamerung.

....But what if Putin orders the Rocket Forces to press the button, and the generals (maybe including Shoigu btw, who is no fool) decide that no I don't want everyone I ever loved to vanish in a nuclear fireball, storm the Kremlin, shoot his ***, massacre his chef and Halal Tiktok boy, and all the various other chekists, mafiyas and Praetorians, announce complete and unconditional withdrawal from Ukraine and then abjectly throw themselves on the mercy of the West.

War is over.

What happens then?

Note that in 1986, the above would have seemed like crazy talk. Until it happened.

[Grigb]

26 minutes ago, Butschi said:

In all of this I miss the Ukrainian side of the equation. Do we have any reliable information about the current state of the Ukrainian forces? Losses, supplies, ammo,
reserves, etc.? Is Ukraine just opportunistic at the moment and exploits weaknesses of the Russian army but not pushing too hard or are they pushing their forces to the limit in order to take what is possible before the end of the campaign season and the inevitable standstill until spring?

Aren't the predictions about how long it will take to take X and where the next offensive will go just speculations without this kind of information?

RU claim UKR push is the main push with up to mech division in strength against a couple of devasted RU battalions.

All signs indicate UKR are executing a deliberate offensive campaign they have been preparing for several months. 

[TheVulture]

9 minutes ago, Huba said:

New Rybar map. Most of RU positions in "contested area" are already under UA control, as proven by a stream of incoming videos

The speed of advance on a wide front looks a lot like a deliberate (ish) Russian withdrawal to try and establish a defence further back, rather than Ukraine overrunning the Russians everywhere at once, but it's all just rumours and guesswork for us at the moment - AFU are understandably keeping quiet about where they are exactly, and Russian bloggers probably aren't in a hurry too come out with a comprehensive list of bad news either.

[Huba]

After successful referendum and joining Czechia, Kralovec ( former Koenigsberg and Kaliningrad) now has an official twitter profile:

 

[Grigb]

5 minutes ago, Huba said:

Do you think this is doable without capturing the whole Pryvilla salient? Assuming RU have enough strength to set up reasonable defences in Kreminna (big if...), I'd think they would dig the trenches up to a river itself.

If my skill of smelling RU tealeaves is still good RU is much worse shape than we think. They cannot send anybody even to Chernopopivka. And UKR are already at outskirts of Kreminna. It is one step to Stary Krasnyanka.

[Grigb]

10 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

The speed of advance on a wide front looks a lot like a deliberate (ish) Russian withdrawal to try and establish a defence further back, rather than Ukraine overrunning the Russians everywhere at once, but it's all just rumours and guesswork for us at the moment - AFU are understandably keeping quiet about where they are exactly, and Russian bloggers probably aren't in a hurry too come out with a comprehensive list of bad news either.

Most probable version is that significant UKR mech force is moving along the coast. RU is intelligent enough to pull out of forming pockets (between coast force and Inhulets bridgeheads force) with various degrees of success.