How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

30 minutes ago, billbindc said:

I'm a bit skeptical. It's a limited space with some of the most professional Russian units. I'll be very surprised if there's open field running on this front. 

Two or three months of merciless shelling knocks a units quality and quantity right down. The Germans held strong in the Hedgerows around Normandy, Until they didn't.

Edited October 2, 2022 by dan/california

[The_MonkeyKing]

Interesting

[akd]

Oh man, the cope in this one.  “The Ukrainians aren’t military geniuses, they just attack where we are weak with strong, competent forces using their superior ISR. Also, start preparing for urban last stands.” 

 

Edited October 2, 2022 by akd

[danfrodo]

Good summary of the war today.  Has some fun snippets of tankie & RU propagandists.  Hilarious. 

LIBERAL SITE, ENTER AT OWN RISK.  This thread is all UKR war except for sidebar links to other articles

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/10/2/2126501/-Ukraine-Update-Russians-and-their-boosters-cope-with-another-stunning-defeat

[danfrodo]

18 minutes ago, akd said:

Oh man, the cope in this one.  “The Ukrainians aren’t military geniuses, they just attack where we are weak with strong, competent forces based on their superior ISR. Also, start preparing for urban last stands.” 

 

wow, there's no words for this.  How can anyone be so f--ing stupid?

I saw a football game like this yesterday.  "the winning team wasn't any better than us.  They just took advantage of their superior strength, size, speed and offensive and defensive skills to continually take advantage of favorable matchups."

Edited October 2, 2022 by danfrodo
addition

[The_MonkeyKing]

Claims getting pretty wild

EDIT: this is so extremely it is false. Just posting this as an example of a wild claim. Realistic interpretation is that Berislav is just given as a direction.

Edited October 2, 2022 by The_MonkeyKing

[Kinophile]

2 hours ago, keas66 said:

Oh boy ...

 

Misplaced from the stock that never existed, fulfilled by the shell company with no employees (but 17 directors), parking lot for a factory and an empty head office, after it won a competition against six  identical other companies (who all share the same address) and judged by the brother of one of the Directors who is a clerk at the MoD. 

 

[Battlefront.com]

Article about the big prisoner exchange that brought home Mariupol and foreign POWs.  The odd exchange happened because Putin overrode his advisors:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-overruled-his-top-security-service-in-prisoner-swap-with-ukraine/ar-AA12ujxw?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=3dbbfb81f3454b36998ae96090c427d0

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, keas66 said:

Oh boy ...

 

Heh.  What are the chances those uniforms were never made?  I'd say pretty high!

Steve

[danfrodo]

6 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Claims getting pretty wild

that would put UKR ~9km from nova kahovka dam.  So the already meager supplies leaking through would be cut by at least half.  oh my oh my.  Yeah, as someone said above, it's gonna be a fun Monday morning meeting w Herr Putler.  I hope someone records it for posterity. 

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, akd said:

@sburke @Kinophile

Col. Kharechko was deputy commander for the 4th Military Base.

https://antikor.com.ua/ru/articles/571490-vsu_v_zaporohje_likvidirovali_11_okkupantov_16_ranili_sredi_200-h_zamestitelj_komandira_iz_rf

I'd ask what the Hell that guy was doing out in the field, but I think we all know why... shortage of officers to man units at the front.

Steve

[Kinophile]

3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Maybe this is our PsyOps to inflict panic, but here is RUMINT as if UKR troops already broke through the defense lines near Dudchany, having 17 tanks and 11 BMP.

Girkin asesses UKR forces, advancing from the north as 3-4 mech.battalions and 1 tank battalion

Tbh, I found that Rumint that makes its way here has about a 75% chance of being correct. 

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

That is because the M18 is an “area weapon system”, not an AP mine.  In fact the Ottawa treaty does not cover booby traps or other “static explosive devices” so who knows what the troops are up to out there in the wild.  I expect IEDs of all sorts are in play because teenagers and explosives are like love, they will find a way.

Just read an article in Washington Post about a Ukrainian captain that goes around pickup up Russian corpses.  He said that 4 out of the 100 he personally handled were booby trapped.

Steve

[Bulletpoint]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

That is because the M18 is an “area weapon system”, not an AP mine.  In fact the Ottawa treaty does not cover booby traps or other “static explosive devices” so who knows what the troops are up to out there in the wild.  I expect IEDs of all sorts are in play because teenagers and explosives are like love, they will find a way.

It sounds like you're quoting Wikipedia here, and I think that passage in the Wiki is incorrect. The Ottawa Convention does cover booby traps:

States-parties commit to not using, developing, producing, acquiring, retaining, stockpiling, or transferring anti-personnel landmines, which are defined by the treaty as mines "designed to be exploded by the presence, proximity or contact of a person and that will incapacitate, injure or kill one or more persons."

This would also cover booby traps. But IED's are allowed. And also the M18 Claymore, if it's triggered remotely. Not if it's equipped with a tripwire.

Regarding anti-handling devices, yes, they are allowed by the convention, but the definintion of an anti-handling device is that it activates when somebody tampers with or intentionally disturbs the mine. Key word here is "intentionally".

So it's not a loophole for turning AT mines into AP mines by giving them a sensor to makes them explode when stepped on. But it's allowed to make the AT mine explode when lifted for example.

[Kinophile]

12 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

that would put UKR ~9km from nova kahovka dam.  So the already meager supplies leaking through would be cut by at least half.  oh my oh my.  Yeah, as someone said above, it's gonna be a fun Monday morning meeting w Herr Putler.  I hope someone records it for posterity. T

That's the issue with a strong static defense -  you put so much effort into it (men, material, time)  that by definition you don't have a strong active defense.  There's a cost somewhere, and turtling is always a self-defeating strategy in the medium/long term. Your mech coy that should be an active mobile reserve is instead entrenched and getting arty'd into human jigsaw puzzles. So come the inevitable breakthrough somewhere, you just don't have the force available to deal  with it,  your line is now a redoubt and the hostile are kicking over your divisional kitchens. 

Interestingly, this situation is a close  mirror opposite of the first phase of Kharkiv,  where RUS had everything thrown forward and no depth (and no strong mobile reserve). In Kherson they had a certain amount of depth but reduced theatre flexibility.  I suspect they still have a strong mobile reserve  it its probably pretty beat up. 

Edited October 2, 2022 by Kinophile

[dan/california]

6 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

that would put UKR ~9km from nova kahovka dam.  So the already meager supplies leaking through would be cut by at least half.  oh my oh my.  Yeah, as someone said above, it's gonna be a fun Monday morning meeting w Herr Putler.  I hope someone records it for posterity. 

I have said for literally months that the minute Nova Khahovka is in range of regular 155 the Russians north of the Inhulets are done. But they are collapsing so fast the more important question might be the quality of swimming lessons in Russia's outer reaches. My guess is not great.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, TheVulture said:

Yeah, that's my worry too. In terms of being a coherent military force, the Russians in the Kherson direction seem to have generally shown the most competence. They're not going to be a push over.

They aren't a push over, as evidenced by 1+ months' worth of hard fighting.  However, we are talking about intensive fighting by a force that is nearly cut off from supply and whose losses are not being replaced by anything other than cannon fodder (if even that).  Eventually they will have to give up ground simply because they don't have the men and/or supplies necessary to hold it.  In fact, it is inevitable that this is the way the fight is going to go. 

Points to Russia for being able to keep the fight going as long as it has been.  Especially because both their offensive and defensive strategies rely so heavily on copious amounts of artillery.

Steve

[Kinophile]

And as with all UKR ops, let's watch for the successive attack from a different direction.... 

[Haiduk]

Looks like there was heavy fight for Kurylivka, Kharkiv oblast on 24-25th Sep and some later. In addition to 3-4 abanoded T-90A we have now this. French cameraman

 

 

Edited October 2, 2022 by Haiduk

[The_MonkeyKing]

Pretty awesome thread on the current Kherson news and rumors. Everything you need to know. Sources and constantly updating 

 

[Haiduk]

The writing on M113 "United with Ukraine"

 

[Zeleban]

a curious oncoming battle of a Ukrainian armored personnel carrier against a Russian infantry fighting vehicle.

[billbindc]

We should all be clear about what the potential collapse in Kherson means. This isn't a fight on the fringes of Lugansk and Donetsk. This will take a large swale of strategically vital territory away from Russia with possibly 10's of thousands of casualties. It's also coming just days after Putin threw down the gauntlet on nuclear weapons and with a rising chorus of Russian nationalists descrying the war effort. That puts us right into the scenario in which use of a tactical nuke will be contemplated. What happens next will tell us quite a bit.

[FancyCat]

Hey, we have evidence of Ukraine being capable of simultaneous operations across two fronts!

I know the prior stuff technically had movement on both Kherson and Kharkiv fronts, but I think simultaneous moving units on both fronts exceeds the prior more grinding movement on Kherson and the rapid Kharkiv advance we saw prior. 

It's wild that most of the Russians refuse to treat the Ukrainians with any respect. I know its to protect their ego, and worldview, but dang, accept the Loss. You will find it easier to fight back if you can accurately note the disposition of your enemy. 

[FancyCat]

Just now, billbindc said:

We should all be clear about what the potential collapse in Kherson means. This isn't a fight on the fringes of Lugansk and Donetsk. This will take a large swale of strategically vital territory away from Russia with possibly 10's of thousands of casualties. It's also coming just days after Putin threw down the gauntlet on nuclear weapons and with a rising chorus of Russian nationalists descrying the war effort. That puts us right into the scenario in which use of a tactical nuke will be contemplated. What happens next will tell us quite a bit.

One good benefit is that Russia might be caught off guard by the rapid ZSU effort, Putin has shown a large degree of cautiousness in escalation, much to the dismay of the hardliners seeking bigger and quicker efforts at ensuring russian victory in the war. NATO will be watching closely for movement on the nuclear front, and while I assume tactical nukes are easier to move, I also assume that NATO is dialed in deep (and certainly probably Ukraine too) into the Russian command structure.