How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[CAZmaj]

26 minutes ago, DerKommissar said:

I think he's too much of a coward to do something like that. He's focusing on the West, in order to manage ethnic tensions.

The highest population of Ukranians, outside of Ukraine, is in Russia. If he's gotta blame anyone for his failiures, it's going to be those dastardly Anglo-Saxons.

Russian nationalism is as peculiar, as American, or Canadian, nationalism. ...

Canadian nationalism? And what is that?

[Huba]

Just now, CHEqTRO said:

Stolberg announced yesterday a press conference for today without announcing the topic. Something tells me that this is what he is going to talk about, indicating that they indeed did know.

That's right, it is supposed to happen at 19:00 (GMT IIRC). I wonder what the announcement will be? Will they just accept the application, or is there to be something more aggressive announced, like extension of nuclear umbrella? What a day!

[LongLeftFlank]

2 minutes ago, CAZmaj said:

Canadian nationalism? And what is that?

Mainly not being American, while not being a jerk about that fact.

[pavel.k]

10 minutes ago, Huba said:

And here's an answer from Zelensky:

Now I wonder if that was agreed somehow with at least some key members - I really hope it was. It's not going to happen while the hostilities are ongoing, but has to happen after. Having clear prospect of NATO membership makes UA negotiation position stronger IMO. I'm sure that PL will support the application.

Are terrorist attacks on the applicant territory the reason to block application? There is no war, it is just SMO...

[Huba]

There's more:

 

[FancyCat]

Reminder, a floating peace term was Ukraine staying out of NATO.

Plus, if Russia wants to nuke Ukraine, this would resolve it nicely......

 

[Kinophile]

24 minutes ago, Huba said:

And here's an answer from Zelensky:

Now I wonder if that was agreed somehow with at least some key members - I really hope it was. It's not going to happen while the hostilities are ongoing, but has to happen after. Having clear prospect of NATO membership makes UA negotiation position stronger IMO. I'm sure that PL will support the application.

Yah and Orban will be a real Putler-licking a$$hat. 

[Kinophile]

13 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Mainly not being American, while not being a jerk about that fact.

That's... That's way too hard, I'm sorry.  You ask too much!

[Battlefront.com]

5 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

https://jamestown.org/program/lessons-of-the-ukraine-war-thus-far/

Russia has fired more than 3,800 missiles against Ukraine ... in large part, by so-called “theater of operations” missiles—mid-range missiles that can strike targets thousands of kilometers away (e.g., Kalibr and X-101). But such a quantity of missiles, which is much more than the United States has launched in total in the past 40 years, did not allow Russian forces to change warfighting dynamics in a favorable way—by failing to paralyze railways logistics, interdict Western military supply flow to Ukraine or gain air superiority.

The Ukrainian experience has made clear that precision missiles of lesser range combined with accurate intelligence can make a world of difference on the battlefield. Primarily, this concerns the employment of Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS) projectiles guided by GPS with an 85-kilometer range. The US has provided Ukraine with at least 2,100 projectiles of this type.... Basically, successful mass employment of GMLRS by Ukraine has proven the validity of the US Army’s AirLand Battle doctrine of the 1980s.

 

This is stating the obvious to those of us following the war closely day to day.  However, it is always good to see a summary of months worth of details so that we don't forget to talk about the strategic implications.

The intel component for precision weapons is more essential than for massed "dumb" weaponry.  I might not know exactly where your infantry is in a patch of woods, but I can make a guess and with enough shells from standard cannons I can probably have a tangible effect.  However, if I am trying to target your command and control systems, I need extremely accurate and timely targeting information or I'm not going to hit it.  Saturation does not work because there is rarely an obvious place to hit.  The exceptions are fixed infrastructure such as electrical substations, dams, bridges, etc.  Pretty much anybody with Google Earth can find them easily enough.

Which gets us to Russia's other problem... inadequate accuracy.

I think it is very clear to us that the Russian missiles are not comparable to Western ones in terms of accuracy.  This isn't surprising as nothing Russia has or does is comparable.  Even when they have accurate and timely intel on a target, their chances of hitting it aren't very good if it is small and/or mobile.  Hitting fixed infrastructure is easier, but even then they have to use saturation to reasonably guarantee effect.

This seems pretty straight forward, but I think prewar analysts missed what it means in terms of effect on Russia's war efforts and, at the same time, underestimated what Ukraine can do with accurate/timely intel and weaponry.

The part missed is that the amount of good targets vastly exceeds the number of smart munitions.  Even if you fired every single smart munition with 100% accuracy at targets that are 100% identified, you're still going to leave a lot of targets untouched.  The closer you come to 100% in both categories, the more impactful your limited PGMs are.  Corollary also applies!

Russia was faced with the daunting problem of not being able to find enough critical things that it could also hit.  Trying to smash an HQ or AAA asset requires intel, which they don't reliably have.  Trying to smash a railway line or bridge requires accuracy, which they also don't have.  Russia seems to have figured this out, but felt they had to do something to show those nasty Ukrainians who is the boss of them!  So they launched their PGMs as long range terror weapons.  If they hit something important by sheer accident, great, but hitting a shopping mall or residential block was deemed productive too.

Ukraine, on the other hand, used its PGMs as they were intended and the results are easily seen.  The videos of large ammo dumps going boom, the list of mid to senior officers killed on the same day from the same large unit, the holes neatly punched into bridges, etc.

What this war has taught us is that inadequate intel + moderately accurate PGMs = range extension of existing non-PGM capabilities.

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

Just now, Kinophile said:

That's... That's way too hard, I'm sorry.  You ask too much!

You canny Gaelic person, you have cracked our secret code! Being 'sorry' is the rest of what it is to be a Canadian.  There is nothing more, other than Keiths and Don Cherry.

[kraze]

28 minutes ago, Huba said:

That's right, it is supposed to happen at 19:00 (GMT IIRC). I wonder what the announcement will be? Will they just accept the application, or is there to be something more aggressive announced, like extension of nuclear umbrella? What a day!

I'm trying to be realistic here. At most they may just give us a "roadmap" that will, of course, take years (of convincing Hungary to stop being an ***) and that will be it. And of course the usual "West is united as always, we support Ukrainian borders and fight for freedom etc", while giving us even more weapons (which will be the best outcome and is actually realistic one tbh).

Edited September 30, 2022 by kraze

[FancyCat]

If you recall, at the point of Sweden and Finland requesting to enter NATO, the UK and other NATO nations extended a bilateral security guarantee to in case of Russian attack before NATO accession could occur. This could be the same here, except it would only apply to nuclear attacks by Russia. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/11/johnson-security-assurances-sweden-and-finland-not-just-symbolic

If this move was coordinated with the U.S and a few NATO allies, it would be a very powerful move to ensure Putin cannot escalate to using nukes. 

Edited September 30, 2022 by FancyCat

[cyrano01]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

 

Suspicions of Anglo-Saxon involvement were aroused when the remains of burnt cakes were washed ashore on the coast of Denmark. Amongst other suspects Æthelred is unready for questioning and Edward has already confessed.

[billbindc]

5 minutes ago, kraze said:

I'm trying to be realistic here. At most they may just give us a "roadmap" that will, of course, take years (of convincing Hungary to stop being an ***) and that will be it. And of course the usual "West is united as always, we support Ukrainian borders and fight for freedom etc", while giving us even more weapons (which will be the best outcome and is the only realistic one tbh).

The point wasn't to suddenly vault into NATO. It was to blunt the effect of Putin's speech in media and elsewhere. Vlad rambled on in his weird way through a list of grievances and gnomic statements about nukes which gave Zelensky the opportunity to message with a clear statement of Ukrainian defiance and alliance with the West. Russians may not hear it but China, India and the rest of the world does. Smart.

[Huba]

10 minutes ago, kraze said:

I'm trying to be realistic here. At most they may just give us a "roadmap" that will, of course, take years (of convincing Hungary to stop being an ***) and that will be it. And of course the usual "West is united as always, we support Ukrainian borders and fight for freedom etc", while giving us even more weapons (which will be the best outcome and is actually realistic one tbh).

9 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

If you recall, at the point of Sweden and Finland requesting to enter NATO, the UK and other NATO nations extended a bilateral security guarantee to in case of Russian attack before NATO accession could occur. This could be the same here, except it would only apply to nuclear attacks by Russia. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/11/johnson-security-assurances-sweden-and-finland-not-just-symbolic

If this move was coordinated with the U.S and a few NATO allies, it would be a very powerful move to ensure Putin cannot escalate to using nukes. 

Let's wait and see what happens. I think kraze's idea is much more realistic. There's no way for UA to join, or even go through the application process now, but even clear prospect of joining is a very strong statement. And of course more weapons are needed, no doubt.
And as far as HU is concerned, they have to be dealt with, both in EU and NATO level. It won't happen till the war ends, but they have it coming. Given how things are going, they will do some Huxit all by themselves.

Edited September 30, 2022 by Huba

[kraze]

5 minutes ago, billbindc said:

The point wasn't to suddenly vault into NATO. It was to blunt the effect of Putin's speech in media and elsewhere. Vlad rambled on in his weird way through a list of grievances and gnomic statements about nukes which gave Zelensky the opportunity to message with a clear statement of Ukrainian defiance and alliance with the West. Russians may not hear it but China, India and the rest of the world does. Smart.

Hence why a symbolic "roadmap" is probably the outcome. It will certainly dull the "celebrations" in Russia and whatever other anti-West countries, while not actually changing much geopolitically (because let's be realistic - nothing really happened today, territories were already occupied, armies are the only ones that will be doing the real "negotiating").

Of course the real hope here is for a bit of "escalation" like tanks and ATACMS and if those are to happen - man it will be much better than whatever political statement.

Edited September 30, 2022 by kraze

[MSBoxer]

25 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Mainly not being American, while not being a jerk about that fact.

"We are not American, sorry if that causes any offence"

[Kinophile]

https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy50cmFuc2lzdG9yLmZtL2Zyb20tdGhlLWNyb3dzLW5lc3Q/episode/YmY2MjQ5YTctYWVkNi00MjVlLTgyMzMtOTQxOGMzODlkMzZj?ep=14

"From The Crows Nest" podcast,  an EW centric show. For the civvies among us,  it's very useful.

Now,  Some episodes can be insanely mil-nerdy, with serving officers regurgitating an unholy mix of densely packed acronyms and obsure doctrinal references. If this is how bad mil-speak can get,  well my oh my am I glad I never did more than that one evening in the FCA. 

But every guest knows their stuff and just as importantly so does the host. 

There's some notable bits in this episode,  esp re Gen. Ben Hodges trying to freely move M1s around Europe on land (spoiler, he couldn't) and those knock-on implications for Ukraine NATO-ising its tank fleet VS. the existing national physical infrastructure to actually get them from A-> B. 

Have a listen. 

Edited September 30, 2022 by Kinophile

[akd]

Here comes the tungsten Rasputitsa:

 

[Grigb]

Excerpts from fresh Girkin post (skipped useless stuff)

Quote

But now let's move on to what we have at the moment in reality: and we have at least an operational (or even complete - I don't have exact info) ENCIRCLEMENT. Which is being urgently tried to break through from the outside. (And the enemy - one must think - is also not sitting idly by and pounding on the unblocking forces from all available long-range weapons. With corresponding losses).

So -  why the departure from the Lyman was not provided in advance with sufficient forces to hold the "corridor" and cover the departure - I have no answer to that. Therefore, I cannot completely reject the thesis of respectable Andrey "Murz" about betrayal. But still, with a higher degree of probability, I assume IMPENETRABLE CRETINISM AND UNPROFESSIONALISM OF THE COMMAND. Unfixable in conditions when no one is responsible for all the numerous and regularly recurring failures [credo of Putin regime - if you are loyal, you will not be punished for your failures], except for easy "Scapegoat".

I sincerely hope that our units that have been encircled in the Lyman (there are, in general, a few of them - both in number [of units] and in number [of men]) will be quickly unblocked and successfully withdrawn. Otherwise, a relatively insignificant operational and tactical defeat will turn into a colossal moral blow to our army and, conversely, into a huge moral success for the AFU.

 

Interesting quote regarding Zaporozhye:

Quote

I also assumed that the enemy was conducting an "auxiliary" (or even distracting) offensive at Lyman, covering their supposed main blow on the Zaporozhye front with it, as well as trying to divert our reserves from there. Actually, I still consider this threat quite probable, because - unlike the Lyman area - the enemy's breakthrough somewhere under the Pologi or south of Ugledar threatens with the collapse of the front [there] and the threat of encirclement of our entire Kherson group, the enemy's access to the Crimean Isthmuses and - as a result - to the strategic defeat of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation with unpredictable general consequences.

I already discussed the puzzling RU obsession with South direction. According to Girkin it looks like Kherson, Land bridge to Crimea and Isthmuses are of critical importance for RU. But as per our previous discussions the nature of the importance is most likely political.

It is important for us because it indicates RU will continue to focus on the South giving UKR ample opportunity to defeat RU at North. 

[Butschi]

 

17 hours ago, FancyCat said:

If you don't mind me asking, what divides the Allied occupation of Germany and the U.S occupation of Japan between this hypothetical occupation of Russia? 

You didn't address it when i noted previously that your assertion that the cultures of Germany and Japan were not changed by the occupiers was incorrect, but i feel like your misunderstanding the length and extent of the occupations of those two countries, so I do need to emphasize that the changes imposed on Germany and Japan included their cultures. 

I can't speak for Japan. For Germany I think especially some US forum members seem to misunderstand the role the Allies played in bringing about the change in German culture.

To start with, I'm not sure how much of a cultural change there actually was between, say, 1930 to 1960. The Nazis were not elected because Germans believed in all this aryan superiority nonsense or were convinced of the need for war for Lebensraum. They were elected because Germany was among the countries hit hardest by the worldwide economic crisis and had stopped trusting in the democratic system that was known for petty power squabbles and being unable to keep public order. Under the Nazis the economical situation improved, there was work for everyone, people could even go on vacations. Some lost territory was "reintregated" ... as some historian put it: had Hitler died in mid '39 he'd be counted among the greatest German leaders today. Still, there was no enthusiasm for war whatsoever at that time. Also the society was not nearly as "nazified" as Hollywood wants to make us believe. On the countryside it was still pretty much the church who ruled daily life. There was antisemitism, yes, but only up to a point. Public violence was still frowned upon (well, don't look, don't tell and all). In short, the hardcore nazis were more of a minority, most were chameleons, conformists, people who adapted to the system and were most interested in living their lives without being bothered. Don't get me wrong, many thought that Hitler had some good points. Antisemitism and some sense of superiority was common sense at the at the time and the Germans hadn't forgotten the Versailles contracts and the humiliation. Of course after the victory over France many held Hitler high regard. But they were not hardcore ideological Nazis.

Having survived the war and the chaos in the years directly after, the Germans wanted to just get on with their lives.

Denazification didn't really happen, at least not by the Allies. The Nuremberg trials did make sure that noone could say afterwards he didn't know. While they were a powerful sign that regimes could be held accountable for their deeds, it also gave the common German a bunch of scapegoats. Denazification among the common population was effectively rather symbolic. Most importantly the whole civil service was left largely untouched - our third chancellor, Kiesinger, had been a somewhat higher ranking Nazi. At least that quickly enabled a functioning state (compare to Iraq...). The civil servants functioned in the new system just as well as in the old system.

Generally, people knew of the war and what had happened at that time (although many claimed otherwise). But it was not spoken about. Former Nazis rarely ended in court because most of the judges had already been judges under the Nazis. And because the Germans didn't want to be reminded of the time and their deeds, people who tried were generally being frowned upon or even seen as traitors.

This really only changed with the next generation who suddenly demanded to know what their parents had done. That is what brought about a slow(!) change in culture.

What was vastly more important than denazification was what became known as the economic miracle. The Germans profited from the new system, their lives became objectively better. This is also where the US come into play: The Marshall plan, while strictly speaking did not do that much in reality (in the and it was all paid for by Germany), was brilliant because those signs everywhere "built with the help of the Marshall plan" connected the new good life with the Allies and the West in general. Then there was France (under de Gaulle) who extended their hands in friendship, the Queen came for a visit and all that. And then of course we discovered that we can just go on vacations if we want to see other countries

Edited September 30, 2022 by Butschi

[Grigb]

1 hour ago, akd said:

Well then, I guess the Zaporizhzhia front has been significantly weakened.

Do not think so. I think they are pulling forces they saved for defending RU border and front line North of Svatove. If I sniff UKR leaves properly Lyman battle is distraction for RU reserves to pull them out of Dvorichne-Kupyanks area.   

[FancyCat]

Finland and Sweden began NATO membership process without going thru the Membership Action Plan, as seen here, so a established position was made.

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_49212.htm

And talked here: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/why-finland-and-sweden-can-join-nato-with-unprecedented-speed/

Assuming this was coordinated, the intent here I'm guessing is to raise the cost of nuclear attack to be unsustainable for Putin and to concretely establish long term NATO and western support to Ukraine. Ukraine does not need NATO membership to be protected, the bilateral security guarantees given to Sweden and Finland show that. Craft them to be specific for opposing nuclear escalation and that might be great.

Something to keep in mind, we really don't want nuclear warfare use to be normalized. A way of ensuring it cannot be normalized is raising the cost and being very concrete on the potential for punishment.

Putin has been relying, betting on Western inaction, this is a clear signal, if it was coordinated by Ukraine with the West to Putin that he needs to not nuke Ukraine.

Now if it wasn't coordinated, then likely it's not too big a deal. It's rumored there is a NATO press conference with the Gen Sec. today. We shall see.

[Huba]

Just now, Grigb said:

Do not think so. I think they are pulling forces they saved for defending RU border and front line North of Svatove. If I sniff UKR leaves properly Lyman battle is distraction for RU reserves to pull them out of Dvorichne-Kupyanks area.   

I'm thinking along the same lines. For sure the Liman operation is not the last word of ZSU in the northern sector, especially given how successful it turns out to be. 

[akd]

Just now, Grigb said:

Do not think so. I think they are pulling forces they saved for defending RU border and front line North of Svatove. If I sniff UKR leaves properly Lyman battle is distraction for RU reserves to pull them out of Dvorichne-Kupyanks area.   

503rd MRR was previously reported in key position facing Huliaipole, but I don’t know how recently.  Regardless, 58th CAA is clearly responsible for this area and this is a key component of its strength.