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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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6 minutes ago, Huba said:

Morning Rybar is out. I'm sure Grigb will go over it in more detail, but few most interesting points:

- UA recon groups are crossing Zherebets north of Torskie/ Zarichne

- forces from Yampil and Dobryshevo withdrew to Liman - the cauldron is not only closed, but shrinking fast

- this is my impression only, but it looks like UA is not going to storm Torskie/ Zarichne directly, but also just encircle it. Both roads to the chokepoint seem to be under UA fire, or even direct control

20220930070632-259455fa.jpg

 

It seems that the Russians will not be able to organize defense along the Zherebets River

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1 hour ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

https://old.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/xrl5cf/ukrainian_combat_footage_sept_29th/

interesting video of a raid on RUS positions in Kherson with commentary.

  • Russian artillery has pre-sighted pretty much everything
  • Response time of the artillery is only couple of minutes

I continue to think that the next Ukrainian master stroke will be a 72 hour air and drone campaign that systematically destroys these Russian guns, forcing the survivors into mainly ineffective 'shoot and scoot' mode. While the RUAF flails helplessly, flying from distant bases.

 

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2 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

 

It seems that the Russians will not be able to organize defense along the Zherebets River

At this point I wonder if they will be able to hold on to Kreminna, cause it's just on the line of contact. If not, then the whole Svatovo line is untenable, and UA will be seriously threatening Severodonetsk.  Fingers crossed they can exploit this upcoming victory to the maximum.

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1 hour ago, Huba said:

At this point I wonder if they will be able to hold on to Kreminna, cause it's just on the line of contact. If not, then the whole Svatovo line is untenable, and UA will be seriously threatening Severodonetsk.  Fingers crossed they can exploit this upcoming victory to the maximum.

It's buried a dozen pages back now, but I posted some stuff and maps about how limited the approaches are to Kreminna, and how it might be better to go around the north (south is the Sivierski Donets). But obviously, the guys on the ground might prove me entirely wrong!

P.S.  If Steve or @BFCElvis gives me a holiday for the (buried link) above, it will be worth it.  I regret nothing. Make it loud!

And for our map guru @Grigb , this one's for you!

 

Edited by LongLeftFlank
Rock and roll, hoochie koo!
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10 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

 

It seems that the Russians will not be able to organize defense along the Zherebets River

Yes, motti is collapsing. Interestingly, it seems RU counter attack was able to reach Torske - units from 503 mr regiment of 19 mr division of 58 CAA are in Torkse now. According to Rybar map they came not from Kreminna but from exactly from Krasnorechensk direction (the only safe direction yesterday).

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27 minutes ago, Huba said:

Morning Rybar is out. I'm sure Grigb will go over it in more detail, but few most interesting points:

- UA recon groups are crossing Zherebets north of Torskie/ Zarichne

- forces from Yampil and Dobryshevo withdrew to Liman - the cauldron is not only closed, but shrinking fast

- this is my impression only, but it looks like UA is not going to storm Torskie/ Zarichne directly, but also just encircle it. Both roads to the chokepoint seem to be under UA fire, or even direct control

20220930070632-259455fa.jpg

Not much to add except when Rybar says UKR Recon most of the time he is lying. It is usually forward UKR infantry platoon operating as combat patrol in front of the main force. So, the area north of Torsek is occupied by UKR infantry unit. 

I am going through posts so I might post something useful soon as well.

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On 9/27/2022 at 4:01 PM, Butschi said:

Yeah, so funny that the energy prises will rise even more so that the poorer people can't afford heating any more. I'm laughing my *ss off.

Then there are two of us laughing. Germany/Russia should never, ever built Nord Stream in the first place. And make them so dependeble of NaziRussia!!! As Joe Biden said 7th of februari. If Russia attack Ukraine, Nordsream is no more!

 

Edited by Armorgunner
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23 minutes ago, Armorgunner said:

Then there are two of us laughing 😁 Germany/Russia should never, ever built Nord Stream in the first place. And make them so dependeble of NaziRussia!!! As Joe Biden said 7th of februari. If Russia attack Ukraine, Nordsream is no more!

For me this is all just inconvenient. But there millions who can't pay for bare necessities like food and keeping warm. And they sure as hell were not involved in any decision as to where our energy comes from. If you find that amusing you just disgust me.

Edited by Butschi
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8 minutes ago, Butschi said:

For me this is all just inconvenient. But there millions who can't pay for bare necessities like food and keeping warm. And they sure as hell were not involved in any decision as to where our energy comes from. If you find that amusing you just disgust me.

The energycrysis, is in all of Europe. Not just Germany! And I was ironic. But I removed the emoji, becouse it was not very "conveniant".

Edited by Armorgunner
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https://jamestown.org/program/lessons-of-the-ukraine-war-thus-far/

Russia has fired more than 3,800 missiles against Ukraine ... in large part, by so-called “theater of operations” missiles—mid-range missiles that can strike targets thousands of kilometers away (e.g., Kalibr and X-101). But such a quantity of missiles, which is much more than the United States has launched in total in the past 40 years, did not allow Russian forces to change warfighting dynamics in a favorable way—by failing to paralyze railways logistics, interdict Western military supply flow to Ukraine or gain air superiority.

The Ukrainian experience has made clear that precision missiles of lesser range combined with accurate intelligence can make a world of difference on the battlefield. Primarily, this concerns the employment of Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS) projectiles guided by GPS with an 85-kilometer range. The US has provided Ukraine with at least 2,100 projectiles of this type.... Basically, successful mass employment of GMLRS by Ukraine has proven the validity of the US Army’s AirLand Battle doctrine of the 1980s.

 

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14 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Oh really? I hadn't noticed. And I didn't say millions of Germans. In fact I wasn't laughing about anyone suffering.

You Germans normally think that you are the center of the world. You show it, where ever I go on vacation. You are very cocky, for starting two World Wars. And loose booth!!! Maybee you are differente, I dont know?

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Just now, Armorgunner said:

You Germans normally think that you are the center of the world. You show it, where ever I go on vacation. You are very cocky, for starting two World Wars. And loose booth!!! Maybee you are differente, I dont know?

Ok, now we are getting to the core of this. You just hate Germans and are gloating that we are finally (in your eyes) getting our fair share.

And so obviously what you wrote was not ironic. You just didn't expect to get called out for it.

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5 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Ok, now we are getting to the core of this. You just hate Germans and are gloating that we are finally (in your eyes) getting our fair share.

And so obviously what you wrote was not ironic. You just didn't expect to get called out for it.

Nah I dont hate Germans in General. But Germans in General, are very cocky when on vacation.

Edited by Armorgunner
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2 minutes ago, Armorgunner said:

Nah I dont hate Germans in General. But Germans in General, are very cocky when on vacation.

One German is a great guy does anything for you. Four and you have an Aufklärung detail. Probably you met more than one at the same time. It comes naturally we had a choir about to cross the road. Pedestrian light jumped red and all of them stopped without receiving order. All the other pedestrians ignored it per custom. They just can't help themselves.

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7 hours ago, FancyCat said:

What is BARS-13? Why is it called the Russian Legion in a army of a majority Russian? Has anyone actually been able to figure out if there is a defense line in Svatove? I know we know Ukraine was supposedly pushing units to Zaporizhia Oblast but it's strange how the same leaking of info isn't occurring in Lugansk oblast.

  • BARS is acronym for Combat Army Reserve of Country - it is kind of volunteer Territorial Battalions. It is under MO but they consist mainly of RU Nats volunters. 
  • Each BARS unit (ussualy around battalion but in theory could be up to regiment) has a number (hence BARS-13) and name (hence Russian Legion)
  • According to Mashkkovets after retreat from Izum RU tried to build defenses around red lines marked below

OxhzL2.jpg

  • Regarding the supposed UKR push at Zaporozhye it is a very strange thing. Realisticaly after Izum UKR were not able to start a third offensive along completly different axis. However, for some reason RU focused on this direction and started to reinforce it while claiming UKR were about to attack there.
  • Information about the current offensive was available all the time. But it was not very popular or much discussed. You need to keep in mind that for RU it was just usual battles around Lyman. For some reason they did not believe something serious could happen. They were fooled by their own propaganda (including RU command). Everybody in Lyman claimed that UKR suffered horrendous losses (see one of the post above about forests full of UKR dead soldiers). So, RU lived in the fantasy world where UKR almost ran out of steam and its North grouping is about to collapse due to the huge losses. And when RU were given the topic of Glorious Referendums, they stopped thinking about Lyman front at all. Untill it was too late.
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1 hour ago, Butschi said:

For me this is all just inconvenient. But there millions who can't pay for bare necessities like food and keeping warm. And they sure as hell were not involved in any decision as to where our energy comes from. If you find that amusing you just disgust me.

Hang in there Butschi. If there's one nation which has tricks up their sleeve and a will to survive, it's the Germans. You'll find a way and be not just warmer but stronger too before this winter is through. And I'm sure most people on this board are grateful to Germany for their support for Ukraine in these past two seasons. Surely the western alliance isn't coming apart now.

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14 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

One German is a great guy does anything for you. Four and you have an Aufklärung detail. Probably you met more than one at the same time. It comes naturally we had a choir about to cross the road. Pedestrian light jumped red and all of them stopped without receiving order. All the other pedestrians ignored it per custom. They just can't help themselves.

Maybe I am unlucky, to always meet them in numbers. Its funny tho, that no others than NaziRussians behave that bad! Even in numbers!

And its amazing, that NaziRussia is more Nazi than Germany today. Germany of today, is everything but Nazi!

Edited by Armorgunner
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