How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Letter from Prague]

9 minutes ago, pavel.k said:

He didn't mean it literally.

I am for the full NATO engagement in Ukraine since beginning of the invasion. Not doing it is a betrayal of western civilization and humanity. Negotiating with terrorists while letting them to execute attrocities is a road to hell. That is how i see it.

Now you can switch me to ignore.

I mean I kinda did in the moment because I  was pissed.

Look. My friend mother is in currently occupied part of Ukraine right now. Every time I hear people say the West should disengage because it is not worth it, I imagine them telling that to her. "Sorry, your mom's life is not worth it, she can suffer under Russians and maybe we can help you look for the right mass grave in a decade or two."

I know nobody said that of course, but it is what it means, when you look at the human cost, isn't it?

 

This fight in the thread just shows that the Putins plan to increase pressure is working. I hope the actual nation and military leaders are calmer than we are.

[sburke]

1 minute ago, Letter from Prague said:

This fight in the thread just shows that the Putins plan to increase pressure is working. I hope the actual nation and military leaders are calmer than we are.

I think this disagreement has gone completely off the rails as (as someone noted - I think ultradave) it is being posited as a binary decision.

The west is not going to back down.  What actions it will take is anyone's guess, but backing down completely isn't a viable option.  There are a lot of possible things the west could do, economically or militarily.  But you can bet Russia's few remaining allies will be heading for the exit doors.  This is one pandora's box even the nutball in Pyongyang hasn't dared to open.

[dan/california]

Steve can you please release some details about the new game, so we can argue about those instead? 

 

[Vacillator]

2 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

the West should disengage

There is no sign of that here in the UK. 

The UK Government currently seems to want to mess up the UK economy allegedly without a moment's thought, but support for Ukraine has never been questioned.  I don't see that changing as it's widely seen as the right thing to do.

[chuckdyke]

1 minute ago, Vacillator said:

There is no sign of that here in the UK. 

Water will flow the way it is supposed to. Once I accepted that simple fact life became less complicated. 

[NamEndedAllen]

7 hours ago, FancyCat said:

Russian TV isn't gonna try and broadcast Zelensky's messages to Russia on primetime mind you.

Something else to think about, we already had reports of looting and seizure in both occupied and recently occupied areas of Ukraine, if their ability to supply the mobilized units remains as bad as it is now, we are going to see that rise, and a according rise in hardship for the civilian population. While looting isn't isolated to one side in any war, there seems to be noticeable effort by Ukraine including both government and civil society to try and assist civilians in the front line zones. I'm sure the same exists on the Russian side, but if Russian reports indicating the requisition of supplies remain true and persistent, it won't be hard to argue that we are going to see Russian support erode even in the more longer occupied regions of Ukraine. 

Also, i want to emphasize that by no means, the Russian military should be resorting to such practices or lack of discipline, if you have been listening to Russians being called orks enough, maybe you forgot, but this practice is not supposed to occur in a professional, modernized military, certainly not one claiming to be the 2nd most powerful in the world. It boggles the mind that the analysts got this wrong. Certainly a lot of it was Russian PR, but inexcusable all the same. 

How many decisions by the West were done with a eye towards Russian military prowess, or the belief that whatever improvements in the Ukrainian military would pale to the might of the Russian military? I mean, as seen in the BBC Russia article i posted, the professionalization of the Russian military that Putin needed to illustrate the military standing of Russia, does not seem to have occurred.

Our pre-invasion expectations of the Russian military were not purely quantity (at least i don't think so), but based on a force functional in SEAD, missile guidance, personnel who were trained on heavy equipment, etc, the mobilized personnel look....frankly, pretty worthless. Sound pretty worthless. What a big difference than pre-invasion. 

Certainly, despite the lack of personnel needed for any mid-term or long term control of Ukraine, I want to say we assumed the invasion force would crush Ukrainian organized resistance cause obviously, it had mass and training/tactics, it looks exceedingly clear that without tactics/training, their mass could not be used effectively against Ukraine, as much as Ukraine charted their own early victories, Russia has some near-fatal wounds sapping its ability to fight Ukraine. 

“A mob with guns”.

[dan/california]

 

It seems Rybar thinks the Russians REALLY need to counter attack down the road from Kremina to Troske. I suspect the AFU are arranging the warmest possible welcome. Up to and including having GMLRS ready to provide direct tactical support, which they don't do often. After the wonderful time Putin's excuse for an army has had in Kherson you would think they would know better than to make. stand with water at their backs, even partially.

[NamEndedAllen]

What the heck??
https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/29/politics/us-army-doctor-anesthesiologist-russian-government-medical-records/index.html 

CNN — 

A wife and husband from Maryland have been charged with conspiring to provide the Russian government with personal medical records from the US government and military, according to a newly unsealed federal indictment.

Anna Gabrielian, an anesthesiologist practicing in Baltimore, along with her husband, Jamie Lee Henry, a major and doctor in the US Army, allegedly provided “individually identifiable health information,” which is protected under federal law, to an FBI undercover agent posing as a Russian government employee.

Both Gabrielian and Henry were arrested Thursday morning, according to the US Attorney’s office in the District of Maryland. After appearing in court, they were released on home detention with 24/7 location monitoring. Gabrielian also has a $500,000 unsecured bond.

According to the indictment, Gabrielian was contacted by the undercover agent – who claimed to be an employee of the Russian embassy – in August, after Gabrielian had reached out to the Russian embassy to offer her and her husband’s assistance to the Russian government several months earlier

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, NamEndedAllen said:

What the heck??
https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/29/politics/us-army-doctor-anesthesiologist-russian-government-medical-records/index.html 

CNN — 

A wife and husband from Maryland have been charged with conspiring to provide the Russian government with personal medical records from the US government and military, according to a newly unsealed federal indictment.

Anna Gabrielian, an anesthesiologist practicing in Baltimore, along with her husband, Jamie Lee Henry, a major and doctor in the US Army, allegedly provided “individually identifiable health information,” which is protected under federal law, to an FBI undercover agent posing as a Russian government employee.

Both Gabrielian and Henry were arrested Thursday morning, according to the US Attorney’s office in the District of Maryland. After appearing in court, they were released on home detention with 24/7 location monitoring. Gabrielian also has a $500,000 unsecured bond.

According to the indictment, Gabrielian was contacted by the undercover agent – who claimed to be an employee of the Russian embassy – in August, after Gabrielian had reached out to the Russian embassy to offer her and her husband’s assistance to the Russian government several months earlier

Never ceases to amaze me when people fall for FBI stings. I mean of course there is a real Russian agent on your porch asking you to betray your country, said no sane person ever.

[Butschi]

2 hours ago, Letter from Prague said:

I'd say nuclear war is better than this.

I'll voice another unpopular opinion: If I have to choose between a Russian victory in Ukraine and all out nuclear war I'll take the Russian victory. The one would cause incredible suffering, the other risks billions of lives and even human civilization.

Before someone claims I'd say something else if it was Germany instead of Ukraine: No, I wouldn't.

Edited September 29, 2022 by Butschi

[akd]

Another vile Ukrainian weaponized waterfowl bombing attack (full screen pls):

Gotta catch-em all!

 

Edited September 29, 2022 by akd

[theFrizz]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

First lose of Russian unmanned mine-cleaning device Uran-6. It has blown up by a mine

Well I'll be damned. 

[BlackMoria]

5 minutes ago, theFrizz said:

Well I'll be damned. 

Heh.  Like during during the Gulf War, the US taking out Iraqi GPS jammers with GPS guided JDAMS.   The russians should have just bought Ladas, loaded them up with rocks to give them weight and slapped on a remote controller and drove them across the fields and roads.  Would have had the same effect but for fraction of the cost of this thing.

[billbindc]

19 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

What the heck??
https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/29/politics/us-army-doctor-anesthesiologist-russian-government-medical-records/index.html 

CNN — 

A wife and husband from Maryland have been charged with conspiring to provide the Russian government with personal medical records from the US government and military, according to a newly unsealed federal indictment.

Anna Gabrielian, an anesthesiologist practicing in Baltimore, along with her husband, Jamie Lee Henry, a major and doctor in the US Army, allegedly provided “individually identifiable health information,” which is protected under federal law, to an FBI undercover agent posing as a Russian government employee.

Both Gabrielian and Henry were arrested Thursday morning, according to the US Attorney’s office in the District of Maryland. After appearing in court, they were released on home detention with 24/7 location monitoring. Gabrielian also has a $500,000 unsecured bond.

According to the indictment, Gabrielian was contacted by the undercover agent – who claimed to be an employee of the Russian embassy – in August, after Gabrielian had reached out to the Russian embassy to offer her and her husband’s assistance to the Russian government several months earlier

Gabrielian speaks Russian. It's going to be interesting to hear about her background.

[NamEndedAllen]

7 hours ago, billbindc said:

A suggestion: think less about dubious ethnic essentialism and/or pretty fantasizing about a post-Russia world. Instead, try to imagine how this war ends. It's a far more salient question and harder likely than you think. 

https://www.newyorker.com/culture/annals-of-inquiry/how-the-war-in-ukraine-might-end

Thanks for the link. And a good reminder. 

[Bearstronaut]

23 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

What the heck??
https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/29/politics/us-army-doctor-anesthesiologist-russian-government-medical-records/index.html 

CNN — 

A wife and husband from Maryland have been charged with conspiring to provide the Russian government with personal medical records from the US government and military, according to a newly unsealed federal indictment.

Anna Gabrielian, an anesthesiologist practicing in Baltimore, along with her husband, Jamie Lee Henry, a major and doctor in the US Army, allegedly provided “individually identifiable health information,” which is protected under federal law, to an FBI undercover agent posing as a Russian government employee.

Both Gabrielian and Henry were arrested Thursday morning, according to the US Attorney’s office in the District of Maryland. After appearing in court, they were released on home detention with 24/7 location monitoring. Gabrielian also has a $500,000 unsecured bond.

According to the indictment, Gabrielian was contacted by the undercover agent – who claimed to be an employee of the Russian embassy – in August, after Gabrielian had reached out to the Russian embassy to offer her and her husband’s assistance to the Russian government several months earlier

Major Henry is a trans woman and made headlines 7-8 years ago as being the first openly transgender active duty officer. According to the reports on her arrest, she told the undercover FBI agent that she wanted to join the Russian army after the invasion. Russian society is not known for being very tolerant to the LGBT community so I have no idea what the hell she was thinking.

[sburke]

10 minutes ago, Bearstronaut said:

what the hell she was thinking.

apparently not much

[chuckdyke]

Wow is this available for civilians? Go camping and bring Internet in Australia cell phones don't work in the outback.

 

[Huba]

It sure is https://www.starlink.com/map. Musk is a controversial character, to say the least, but this priject of his is really world changing. 

[NamEndedAllen]

7 hours ago, dan/california said:

I meant if they really do want to lose a nuclear war. 

Who actually wins a nuclear war? I might have misunderstood but does that mean an extended exchange of nukes until Russia can’t fire more? But Europe, Britain and USA still have some (plus radioactive capitols and military industrial complexes?

It really begs the question of whether we can really know that one and only nuclear weapon would be used. And sure that in the face of a significant incoming slap down whoever is actually making decisions in the Kremlin and elsewhere, a far more serious set of nuclear weapons are launched. And then we…

Edited September 30, 2022 by NamEndedAllen
Spelling!

[dan/california]

20 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Who actually wins a nuclear war? I might have misunderstood but does that mean an extended exchange of nukes until Russia can’t fire more? But Europe, Britain and USA still have some (plus radioactive capitals and military industrial complexes?

It really begs the question of whether we can really know that one and only nuclear weapon would be used. And sure that in the face of a significant incoming slap down whoever is actually making decisions in the Kremlin and elsewhere, a far more serious set of nuclear weapons are launched. And then we…

I realize that, but the theory that you will be VERY sorry, has kept the peace for ~80 years. It seems like a bad time to back away from it.

[NamEndedAllen]

6 hours ago, dan/california said:

I realize that, but the the thing that has held the peace for eighty years is convincing the Russians they can't just wave their magical nuclear stick and conquer Europe one country at a time. One way or another we have to make it clear we still mean it.

Agreed! But then the question is right back to the same one of a great many pages: exactly *how*? 

[dan/california]

19 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Agreed! But then the question is right back to the same one of a great many pages: exactly *how*? 

I think the obvious response to a single tactical nuke is to cruise missile (conventional, obviously) the two hundred most valuable Russian targets in Ukraine, AND sink the Black sea fleet. Among other things letting the Russians get away with it just throws nuclear nonproliferation in the trash. Japan, South Korea, and ten plus other countries would be nuclear powers in six months or a year, another twenty or thirty would be along as fast as they could. I don't. think that does much for civilization's long term odds, or even the medium term ones for that matter. This was brought up less than a week, and an approximate infinity of pages ago. 

Edited September 30, 2022 by dan/california

[Peregrine]

52 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

Wow is this available for civilians? Go camping and bring Internet in Australia cell phones don't work in the outback.

 

Don't know a definitive history or how useful they are but both our biggest telcos have offered civilian satellite phones for at least 20 years. You obviously need to "see" a satellite and not sure of the historical or current coverage.

[dan/california]

We should get back to socks, IFVs, and the encirclement of Lyman, if we can.