How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Butschi]

3 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

What I always find fascinating about these kind of pictures of the Ukrainian military is the quiet professionalism that they seem to emit. That was something noticeable from the first hours of the war. Whatever the situation, they always seem to know exactly what they're doing.#

In a few years, these guys will be training us, not the other way around.

Now let's not ignore that both sides do propaganda. Call it "carefully controlling what we get to see" if propaganda sounds too negative when talking about Ukraine. I don't really doubt the professionalism but anyway what we get to see is designed for this purpose.

[Billy Ringo]

3 hours ago, Grigb said:

Infamous old USSR school RU Nat Alksnis commits thought crime (from his VK, sorry did not save the link. Adjusted for readability)

Alsknis laid out how they are going to throw Putin under the bus - he is traitor/western puppet who sabotaged RU defense capabilities and caused it to lose war with Ukraine.

As always, thanks to Grigb for all of your contributions to this thread.  Invaluable.

Alksnis' comments were an eye-opener, brutally honest and informative.  Found him on Facebook, (of all places), and his comments and the subsequent replies were eye-opening.  (If this is in fact him.)   He seems to hold no punches with very little filter or concern about potential repercussions.  The replies mirror much of the same Russia strong/the world is going to kill us paranoia that has been mentioned here over the past months.   Almost a summary reflection of what many of you have stated. 

Google translation does a pretty good job, allowing one to follow the discussion easily.

https://www.facebook.com/VAlksnis/

Maybe this is everyday reading for many of you on here, but it was fascinating to me.  (And very surprised to see this level of discussion on Facebook.)

Peace.

 

[Butschi]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

Yeah, looks like it. Things are escalating rather quickly, I wonder what the West's response would be - I'd expect some more spectacular weapons (like yesterday's HIMARS battalion), but this wish was repeated so many times I doubt it at this point.

Frankly, I'd just ignore it. I mean if the West wants to send more weapons, let's do that, it shouldn't depend on this ridiculous annexation. Sure, it's a big deal for Russia internally but beyond that what is really going to change? The annexation is worth nothing if the Russians can't hold the ground and if they can it effectively doesn't matter if they formally annexed it. Crimea isn't in Russian hands because everyone accepted Russian claims but because there are Russian soldiers occupying it.

By reacting we give Putin the satisfaction of taking this nonsense serious.

Edited September 29, 2022 by Butschi
typos, typos, typos...

[Grigb]

7 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Sure, it's a big deal for Russia internally...

Small note - I do not feel like it is a big deal even for the majority of RU. Looks like it is important only for RU Nats/veterans of L-DPR.   

[Butschi]

1 minute ago, Grigb said:

Small note - I do not feel like it is a big deal even for the majority of RU. Looks like it is important only for RU Nats/veterans of L-DPR.   

Thanks for this insight.

I was thinking more about legal repercussions like sending conscripts and now actually defending Russian ground (possibly as justification for tac nukes) and all that.

[Huba]

37 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Frankly, I'd just ignore it. I mean if the West wants to send more weapons, let's do that, it shouldn't depend on this ridiculous annexation. Sure, it's a big deal for Russia internally but beyond that what is really going to change? The annexation is worth nothing if the Russians can't hold the ground and if they can it effectively doesn't matter if they formally annexed it. Crimea isn't in Russian hands because everyone accepted Russian claims but because there are Russian soldiers occupying it.

By reacting we give Putin the satisfaction of taking this nonsense serious.

It is for internal consumption first and foremost, but it has very serious implications on the immediate future of the war, making negotiations/ ceasefires much less likely. It means West needs to be fully committed to supporting UA militarily for quite a long time, otherwise this whole adventure was for naught. This lady seems to be right on the money with here tweet:

 

Edited September 29, 2022 by Huba

[Huba]

Soo, some Czech media report that there's a deal made with South Korea, that will sell up to $3B worth of armaments to Ukraine, using Czech intermediaries. The article I found is behind paywall unfortunately, but the visible part mentions artillery ammunition( a no-brainer really) and KP-SAM MANPADS. @Letter from Prague did you hear anything about it? Any corroboration from other CZ media?

https://www.idnes.cz/zpravy/domaci/ukrajina-valka-korejske-zbrane-pres-cesko-dodavka-zasoby-usa.A220928_175118_domaci_albe?zdroj=top

Some confirmation:

https://see.news/s-korea-to-send-weapons-worth-2-9-bln-to-ukraine/

ROK has a brigade worth of T-80U and BMP-3, I wonder if they would be willing to sell these, an interesting opportunity for sure.

One more thought. Poland recently went on an absolutely crazy shopping spree in Korea, buying everything immediately available and making deals for setting up local production of tanks, SPGs, with wheeled/ tracked IFVs and MLRS to follow in near future. There was a lot of discussion that these deals might have some secret clauses in them - I wonder if that isn't one of them. ROK is on a great track to establish itself as key armaments supplier for NATO armies, especially in CEE. Showing that if SHTF they are ready to help with their own stocks will for sure go a long way with many potential buyers.

Edited September 29, 2022 by Huba

[Kinophile]

Just a throwback to Steve's favourite military event of the war

https://www.bbc.com/russian/features-63049481

BBC interview with a guy who was at bucha,  then Izium then very likelypart of the supporting fires at Bilorhivka. 

Not a single word of regret for the horror and crimes inflicted on the Ukrainian civilians. Just noting the loss of his own people and how scared he was. 

[akd]

Close-range tank fight:

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

I had little bit forgotten about Belarus card Russia is still actively hanging over Ukraine's head. Ukraine cannot ignore it even if it is a know bluff.

I think the situation has also now changed with the mobilization and new level of risk taking by Russia. They might very well do some union-state maneuver to get Belarus involved. If nothing else in a similar way as other Russian border regions are a source of meat to grind on the front. Lots depends on does Russia think it has the ability to force Belarus to its will.

[Aragorn2002]

 

[Haiduk]

Mariupol's hell

 

[Kinophile]

  

23 minutes ago, akd said:

Close-range tank fight:

 

Oh man, why did the UKR stay there. Seems they reversed, came forward, reversed, too late. You can really see how the ****ty T-series reverse is lethal. 

Insane that the RUS charged forward, I guess they felt the trees were too dense (ref first shot hits a tree)?

That charge would be death in CMBS - but that's also because the game AI doesnt get flustered, it has no psychology. The UKR crew seemed to get confused, didnt even shoot, and that confusion was fatal for them?

 

[Haiduk]

4 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

 

This is survived part of OMON, which lost in the fog and instead Hostomel has driven to Kyiv and was ambushed on the bridge. After retreating they arrived to Hostomel and seized position near enetring to the town. For 6 hours they shot out more than dozen of civilian cars 

[Haiduk]

1 minute ago, Kinophile said:

The UKR crew seemed to get confused, didnt even shoot, and that confusion was fatal for them?

I think gun or autoloader failed.

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

Soo, some Czech media report that there's a deal made with South Korea, that will sell up to $3B worth of armaments to Ukraine, using Czech intermediaries. The article I found is behind paywall unfortunately, but the visible part mentions artillery ammunition( a no-brainer really) and KP-SAM MANPADS. @Letter from Prague did you hear anything about it? Any corroboration from other CZ media?

https://www.idnes.cz/zpravy/domaci/ukrajina-valka-korejske-zbrane-pres-cesko-dodavka-zasoby-usa.A220928_175118_domaci_albe?zdroj=top

Some confirmation:

https://see.news/s-korea-to-send-weapons-worth-2-9-bln-to-ukraine/

ROK has a brigade worth of T-80U and BMP-3, I wonder if they would be willing to sell these, an interesting opportunity for sure.

One more thought. Poland recently went on an absolutely crazy shopping spree in Korea, buying everything immediately available and making deals for setting up local production of tanks, SPGs, with wheeled/ tracked IFVs and MLRS to follow in near future. There was a lot of discussion that these deals might have some secret clauses in them - I wonder if that isn't one of them. ROK is on a great track to establish itself as key armaments supplier for NATO armies, especially in CEE. Showing that if SHTF they are ready to help with their own stocks will for sure go a long way with many potential buyers.

Remember how I mentioned that it makes sense for UKR to follow, develop in parallel to the Polish military?

Taaa-daaaaa...*

I'm sure there's chatter back and forth, with UKR experience guiding what POL buys, and Poland's purchasing experience and networks helping UKR get in the door with suppliers.

 

*_{toot toot goes my own trumpet}

[Haiduk]

29 minutes ago, akd said:

Close-range tank fight:

 

Background song about Russian naval infantry has a words : "We will put NATO-dogs on their knees, white-and-blue flag [naval Russian flag] will shine over Pentagon, Ukraine will falter, Banderites will be punished"  - to the discussion about "Not Russians people are guilt, but the system"... 

[keas66]

4 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Background song about Russian naval infantry has a words : "We will put NATO-dogs on their knees, white-and-blue flag [naval Russian flag] will shine over Pentagon, Ukraine will falter, Banderites will be punished"  - to the discussion about "Not Russians people are guilt, but the system"... 

Indeed  ! - I'd be curious to see how the more civilized/prudent members of the Forum think we are going to re-educate the Russians after their defeat in Ukraine to purge this incessant hatred and lack of guilt/responsibility for their  uncivilized actions  ....but that would be a distraction . I more interested in what is going on around Lyman right now  .

[Battlefront.com]

53 minutes ago, akd said:

Close-range tank fight:

 

HOLY CRAP!  That is close, like RTS arcade engagement close!

Steve

[Huba]

11 minutes ago, keas66 said:

Indeed  ! - I'd be curious to see how the more civilized/prudent members of the Forum think we are going to re-educate the Russians after their defeat in Ukraine to purge this incessant hatred and lack of guilt/responsibility for their  uncivilized actions  ....but that would be a distraction . I more interested in what is going on around Lyman right now  .

Here you go - Starshe Eddy from maybe 20 minutes ago. Basically their only supply road is under constant mortar fire and are about to be overrun, but they kill 1200 - 3300 Ukrainians daily so it's worth it. Seriously, sounds like dispatch from Stalingrad.

Quote

(auto-translated)

Briefly on the Oskol Front. Direct speech of my comrade-in-arms, without cuts:

Brother, hello. Returned from Lyman. On the way, I barely escaped the mortars twice. Khokhols preemptively beat on the road. It helped that I slowed down the car, then gave gas. 120ka in 20 meters was torn.
Quadcopters fly them everywhere. The shooting on the outskirts of Liman is tough. The Mujahideen from 488 (488 joint ventures, 144 motor rifle divisions, approx. SE) are recapturing the city from three sides. Today, a type from a grenade launcher ****ed an M113 armored personnel carrier, a khokhlyachy one, types were captured or a pickup truck with a browning. But the arrivals are tough, you can't raise your head. The forest from the south, according to scouts, is littered with the corpses of crests. We have 1,200, 3,300 per day of the fight. So the truth is on our side, apparently.

 

Edited September 29, 2022 by Huba

[Grigb]

Sema Pegov published video with Boroday. Nothing important but a few interesting points (both from what they said and from context):

• Borodai is extremely nervous
• RU is critically short of infantry and tanks but do have enough of artillery
• Torske is critical for RU - this is the only way out now. Borodai claims they are prepared to defend it.
• But UKR are not really attacking it - there was a probe yesterday and that's it
• Somebody on RU side seems to be spreading a lie that UKR offensive is stalled - it is just slow (from Borodai POV)

Also interestingly, Pegov seems in Torske and avoids staying for long in Drobishevo/Lyman. There is a probability he is already out.

[FancyCat]

not a whole lot of escalation reducing signals by Putin. its quite strange, to see Putin make a decision that is placing all bets on the table. Ukraine will no longer see pushback from its western partners for retaking the Donbas or Crimea, as Putin and Russia's reasoning was basically a one time get away card and now, it basically being as transparent as possible, Ukraine will be validated in seeking full return of occupied land. 

A face saving agreement for Crimea to be retained but the rest lost, after annexation is probably untenable for Putin (as he seems to intend), and therefore untenable for Ukraine to give up that land as well. 

 

 

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

18 minutes ago, keas66 said:

Indeed  ! - I'd be curious to see how the more civilized/prudent members of the Forum think we are going to re-educate the Russians after their defeat in Ukraine to purge this incessant hatred and lack of guilt/responsibility for their  uncivilized actions  ....but that would be a distraction .

Sheesh... are you aware of an entire genre of German music that celebrates Nazi exploits, including murdering Jews?  I guess there's no hope for Germany because by your logic all Germans are just a bunch of fascist murderers pretending to be nice people.  Boy did they have me fooled!

Sorry for the distraction, but the degree of ignorance was just too difficult for me to ignore.

Steve

[paxromana]

'La Marseillaise' is pretty darn racist ... 'watering the fields with impure blood' ... of invaders, sure. Patriotic songs tend to be just a little over the top. 

Edited September 29, 2022 by paxromana

[Battlefront.com]

12 minutes ago, Huba said:

Here you go - Starshe Eddy from maybe 20 minutes ago. Basically their only supply road is under constant mortar fire and the situation is crappy, but they kill 1200 - 3300 Ukrainians daily so it's worth it. Seriously, sounds like dispatch from Stalingrad.

 

Yeah, it's pretty funny stuff.  They are losing ground and the guy can't drive down a road, but he has a pretty accurate estimate of Ukraine's losses.  Riiiiiiiiiiight

The only interesting thing in there was about the drones.  Another thing to add to the growing list of problems for the Russians in this area.  We've heard from Ukrainians that Russian EW presented a major problem for their commercial drones.  Who here thinks the Russians have any EW assets functioning in this area?  I sure don't.  So EW is no longer a factor and that must make the Ukrainian drone operators very happy.

This is a reminder that a nation's technological advantage only matters if it is present on the battlefield.  Sounds pretty obvious, I know, but it is the sort of thing that the pre-war "experts" didn't seem to take into consideration.  They looked at their checklist, saw that Russia has EW capabilities, crossed off a bunch of Ukrainian capabilities as effectively countered, drew conclusions that Russia is superior, then moved onto the next insightful analysis.  Yeah, heavy sarcasm, but if anybody's checked out my timestamps they'll see I didn't get much sleep

Steve