How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Grigb]

15 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

30 mins ago... 

 

Let's read the most relevant parts of the article. But long read warning (I adjusted it for readability):

Quote

The Kremlin decided not to rush with the official "annexation" of Ukrainian territories and the complete closure of borders — so as not to anger Russians who are dissatisfied with the mobilization: "There are no extra security forces now"

Change of Dates

...Earlier, the media reported that all these [annexation] procedures will take place by September 30. However, the speaker of the Federation Council, Valentina Matvienko, actually denied this information, saying that senators would not gather for extraordinary meetings, but would consider documents on the "annexation" of territories at the scheduled session on October 4.

At the same time, the State Duma was really preparing for a hasty consideration of the annexation bills, even state news agencies reported about it. However, later the speaker Vyacheslav Volodin also announced that the meetings on the "annexation" of the Ukrainian territories will be held on October 3 and 4.

"Volodin, as always, was ready to run ahead of the [our] locomotive and get ahead of the agenda when there was no clear decision on the dates of the final "accession" yet," explained one of the Medusa sources close to the presidential administration of Russia (AP). His words were confirmed by another interlocutor close to the Kremlin.

No Rush

According to them, the Kremlin decided "not to rush things" when "circumstances do not require it." "Everything will be joined anyway. But without haste," is how the interlocutors of Medusa formulate the tactics of the authorities.

According to them, Moscow did not hurry with the "annexation" of the Ukrainian territories, since "the PR effect from this will be almost zero" against the background of mobilization. According to sources, the Kremlin understands that so far the Russians have not been able to convince that these territories are needed by Russia in principle.

Although the state and pro—government media tried to prove that Russia is annexing economically successful regions, and holding such "referendums" and "accessions" is absolutely a "normal process", including for Western countries (among the proofs that propaganda cited, the annexation of Texas to the United States in the first half of the XIX century).

Negotiation Explanation

At the same time, one of the sources of Medusa close to the Kremlin noted: perhaps the delay in the official "annexation" of the territories is caused by the fact that the Russian authorities want to "leave a gap" for negotiations on Ukraine with Western countries.

"Putin believes that there is nothing to talk about with [Ukrainian President Vladimir] Zelensky — he is controlled [from the West]. [The Kremlin] may propose to leave Crimea, the territories of the DPR and the LPR behind Russia in the actual borders. Kherson and Zaporozhye regions may become recognized by Russia as states on whose territory Russian troops are stationed. This is an acceptable scenario [for the Russian authorities]," he says. The press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Peskov did not respond to the request of Medusa...

Discontent of Russians with mobilization

However, the main problem for the Kremlin now remains the discontent of Russians with mobilization. According to the interlocutors of Medusa, close to the AP, a closed opinion poll has already been conducted on this topic by order of the Kremlin in Russia, the authorities did not like its results (the sources did not name exact figures). "It shook all [Russians]," one of the sources explained.

At the same time, Medusa's interlocutors close to the Kremlin stressed that the authorities still hope to bring down discontent. In particular, for this they expect to use the usual tools — the speeches of propagandists. Among other ways, public proceedings  are considered in regards of illegally conscripted citizens with their [public] return home, as well as the [public] punishment of military commissars.

No Complete Ban on Leaving yet

Despite numerous media reports (including Medusa), the Kremlin seems to have adjusted its plans for the introduction of a complete ban on men of mobilization age leaving Russia. "We underestimated the flow [of people leaving]. It is very difficult to close the borders now," one of the interlocutors of Medusa comments. — At the most popular checkpoints there are the [big] queue. If the border is closed, thousands of security forces will be needed: disappointed people may attempt to break through. And there are not so many extra security forces now."

Medusa sources close to the AP and the government of the Russian Federation believe that the Russian authorities are not abandoning this idea — but do not yet consider it as a "working option".

 

[Battlefront.com]

32 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Indeed (if rumor is true) it looks like encirclement of threat of encirclement of Kreminna. I cannot help with forces in Kreminna but I do not think they have a lot of forces there. They have other much more critical areas right now. So, good chance they would just bail out.

Russia's not only short on forces to stop Ukrainian advances, but they have no significant alternative lines of defense set up.  We've discussed this was their problem in Kharkiv and a friend who just returned from there confirms that aside from some sandbag type checkpoints at key road junctions, there wasn't much of anything all the way to Kupyansk.  He noted that most of the checkpoints looked abandoned rather than defended against advancing Ukrainian forces.

So, we have an area that was directly behind the frontline for months having near zero fortified positions.  What are the chances that there is anything in the areas that Ukraine is pushing into now?  No chance at all, I say.  Therefore, the only limiting factors on Ukrainian advances is logistics and risk.  Logistics is obvious, risk is the standard weighing of rapid moves by light forces that might not be reinforced vs. moving ahead only when there's enough forces to "guarantee" terrain taken can be held.

Looks like most of northern Luhansk taken since February is going to revert to Ukrainian control very soon.  It's also going to make things rather interesting for the rest.  Severodonetsk is going to soon be threatened.  Imagine what the RU Nats are going to say if that falls in a day or two like Izyum did!

Steve

[Huba]

Just now, The_MonkeyKing said:

i wonder what is this about? "In few years"?

For a purchase order I would understand this but not for these aid packages.

 

 

I saw that too - it seems that all this equipment will be freshly ordered, and delivered in due time. The anti drone equipment should be relatively quick to manufacture (IIRC there was a special program to design new quickly available system), but HIMARS has a huge lead time. Unless the production capacity for it is going to be increased, would make sense with expected hugely increased demand.

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Let's read the most relevant parts of the article. But long read warning (I adjusted it for readability):

 

Risks of riots at the border as men try to escape mobilization is a rather strong clue Russia has lost the war. A risk of riots they do not have the troops to quell. Maybe it is time to go home while there is enough of an army left to hold the far east, if they are very lucky.

[FancyCat]

16 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

i wonder what is this about? "In few years"?

For a purchase order I would understand this but not for these aid packages.

 

 

Apparently this is a purchase order, https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3173378/11-billion-in-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/

I want to claw my eyes out but i suppose its fine.....maybe if Putin actually annexes the occupied regions, the U.S will suddenly release some more HIMARS immediately. 

[Grigb]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

So, we have an area that was directly behind the frontline for months having near zero fortified positions.  What are the chances that there is anything in the areas that Ukraine is pushing into now?  No chance at all, I say.  Therefore, the only limiting factors on Ukrainian advances is logistics and risk.  Logistics is obvious, risk is the standard weighing of rapid moves by light forces that might not be reinforced vs. moving ahead only when there's enough forces to "guarantee" terrain taken can be held.

UKR initial pause and slowness was really puzzling. They crossed Seversky Donets around 12-Sept but appeared at Torske-Kreminna road just recently. However, it makes total sense if something bigger is in progress. They were preparing logistics and did not want to spook RU. 

 

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Looks like most of northern Luhansk taken since February is going to revert to Ukrainian control very soon.  It's also going to make things rather interesting for the rest.  Severodonetsk is going to soon be threatened.  Imagine what the RU Nats are going to say if that falls in a day or two like Izyum did!

Steve

If they pull this out, war might be over by Christmas.

[The_MonkeyKing]

16 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Apparently this is a purchase order, https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3173378/11-billion-in-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/

I want to claw my eyes out but i suppose its fine.....maybe if Putin actually annexes the occupied regions, the U.S will suddenly release some more HIMARS immediately. 

Makes sense we are going to be seen lot more of these in the future.

I think we must think of these is not taking away from other aid but adding to it.

[Panserjeger]

1 hour ago, panzermartin said:

Also I believe technically it was a difficult task for Russia to carry out. Unless there is a way to blow these from inside? How could they approach with submarine /drone and go unnoticed in high intensity waters scanned 24hr by hostile forces ? This perfection in execution doesn't feel very russian to me. 

There have been two incidents recently where norwegian seabed cables have been cut. One was a fibre optic cable to Svalbard, and the other a combined research/defense cable in the North Sea (probably used is to detect subs). Investigations have found that both cases were probably sabotage, but it is of course almost impossible to get proof of who was behind it. However, a norwegian media outlet investigated the incidents, and found that at the time of both incidents the same russian fishing vessels made repeated passes in the area of the cables.

Here is a link to the article, sadly only in norwegian: https://www.nrk.no/nordland/xl/russiske-tralere-krysset-kabler-i-vesteralen-og-svalbard-for-brudd-1.16007084

In Norway we are pretty much certain that the russians were behind it, but without concrete proof the government did not confront the russians directly. I work with IT security, so this has been a big thing recently as the most important communications cables out of Norway are sea cables.

So for me there is no doubt that Russia has the capability to do sabotage on the seabed, using civilian ships or submarines.

[Vanir Ausf B]

4 minutes ago, Panserjeger said:

So for me there is no doubt that Russia has the capability to do sabotage on the seabed, using civilian ships or submarines.

Agreed.

[panzermartin]

2 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

Agreed.

[panzermartin]

1 hour ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

 

Those were the times. Anybody who even speculated anything like what we have today were laughed out the room.

 

[Letter from Prague]

56 minutes ago, akd said:

And…uh…they all came into town for a wedding!

Hopefully a Red Wedding.

...

As for Abrams, can Abrams even be operated by someone who doesn't have American Logistical Magic? I thought it takes more fuel than other thanks due to the turbine?

[Panserjeger]

6 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

Agreed.

Pretty advanced machinery, they even have a toilet roll dispenser installed 

[pavel.k]

48 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Let's read the most relevant parts of the article. But long read warning (I adjusted it for readability):

 

Interesting. The podium is already being built

and streets closure has been announced:

And now they are going to postpone it by 4 days.

[The_MonkeyKing]

2 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

Hopefully a Red Wedding.

...

As for Abrams, can Abrams even be operated by someone who doesn't have American Logistical Magic? I thought it takes more fuel than other thanks due to the turbine?

Well T80 has a turbine engine and Ukraine manages with them just fine.

[Modernrocco]

Putin still has one card up his sleeve he can play, send in segal!

 

[Grigb]

I got funny idea regarding pipelines bombing (sorry if it was already discussed - I missed few pages).

RU Nats (and hardcore siloviks) are actually afraid of the possibility that Kremlin plans some kind of peace deal (like Minsk 3 or something). They want total war until total victory. How would you push Putin into the total war direction? By staging False Flag attack on RU asset. Something important, something that Putin likes, but not really critical for RU. Just saying...

[FancyCat]

The speech was in the context of Russia accussing Ukraine of suppressing the Russian language and Russian speakers. clown bastards.

Extracted Quote from the Russian ambassador to the UN's speech, ugh: 

Quote

By the way, the authorities in Kiev do not hesitate to use the Russian language from time to time – for tactical and propaganda purposes. Suffice it to mention that lately, President Zelensky recorded a few video addresses in Russian in an attempt to disrupt partial mobilization that has been announced in Russia and drive a wedge between the authorities and the society – following the best traditions of Maidan. In his address today, President Zelensky again claimed that in the first place, mobilization touched upon people who are not ethnic Russians, namely – men representing indigenous peoples of the Russian regions.

 

Edited September 28, 2022 by FancyCat

[akd]

3 minutes ago, Grigb said:

I got funny idea regarding pipelines bombing (sorry if it was already discussed - I missed few pages).

RU Nats (and hardcore siloviks) are actually afraid of the possibility that Kremlin plans some kind of peace deal (like Minsk 3 or something). They want total war until total victory. How would you push Putin into the total war direction? By staging False Flag attack on RU asset. Something important, something that Putin likes, but not really critical for RU. Just saying...

I think the answer lies in the one of the two Nordstream 2 pipelines that was not destroyed, unless there is an undetonated charge lying along it somewhere right now.

[Butschi]

There was an interesting interview on German TV about the NS1/2 incident which mainly circled around everything we have discussed here already. It was also mentioned that it could have been an explosive pig but that would become immediately aparent once the damage is further investigated (which should happen in next couple days).

There was also confusion as to why Russia would do such a thing. The answer was that it was actually apparent: The first press statement from the Kremlin said that the leak (before there was proof of explosions) was due to maintenance issues and a direct consequence of the sanctions. Later on (when some form of sabotage became evident) the Kremlin replaced this explanation with blaming others.

That would make this whole affair just another iteration of punishment for the sanctions. Still doesn't really make much sense to me but then again inot much of what the Russian did this year made sense.

[BletchleyGeek]

1 hour ago, Panserjeger said:

There have been two incidents recently where norwegian seabed cables have been cut. One was a fibre optic cable to Svalbard, and the other a combined research/defense cable in the North Sea (probably used is to detect subs). Investigations have found that both cases were probably sabotage, but it is of course almost impossible to get proof of who was behind it. However, a norwegian media outlet investigated the incidents, and found that at the time of both incidents the same russian fishing vessels made repeated passes in the area of the cables.

Here is a link to the article, sadly only in norwegian: https://www.nrk.no/nordland/xl/russiske-tralere-krysset-kabler-i-vesteralen-og-svalbard-for-brudd-1.16007084

In Norway we are pretty much certain that the russians were behind it, but without concrete proof the government did not confront the russians directly. I work with IT security, so this has been a big thing recently as the most important communications cables out of Norway are sea cables.

So for me there is no doubt that Russia has the capability to do sabotage on the seabed, using civilian ships or submarines.

Smells like hybrid warfare to me, and the NS sabotage most definitely an instance of the tactic known as deception.

[dan/california]

Interesting, and I think good?

[FancyCat]

There is one remaining line, NS2, it is notable, if you want to reopen NS2, you would need to lift sanctions on it that was initialized from Germany. In contrast, NS1, Russia had ceased any supply of gas due to "maintenance". If Germany folds, it will need to publicly signal complete surrender to Russia. In contrast, NS1, is much more murky in terms of who gets blamed since Russia had stopped exports under various excuses. 

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/single-line-nord-stream-2-can-still-export-gas-analysts-say-2022-09-28/

If it was Poland or Ukraine or the U.S, you would destroy all 4, unless a attempt to do it failed.

Quote

That leaves only one line of Nord Stream 2, which has an annual capacity of 27.5 billion cubic metres, functional.

Alexei Grivach of the Moscow-based National Energy Security Fund said there was still working pressure in the pipeline, which still needs to be examined.

"If everything is right, it is capable of working provided there is a permit from regulators," he said.

Gazprom did not reply to a request for comment.

"Judging by the publicly available information, one line has been unscathed. In theory, in case of a political decision and by tuning in the gas processing equipment, supplies via the link are possible," said Igor Galaktionov of BCS Mir Investitsiy brokerage.

Germany halted the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project, designed to double the flow of Russian gas direct to the country, after Russia formally recognised two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine, two days before Moscow started its military operation there. 

 

[Letter from Prague]

48 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Well T80 has a turbine engine and Ukraine manages with them just fine.

That's why I'm asking. The only thing I know about thanks is that they are in quantum superposition of being dead and not being dead just like the cat in the box. But I'm sure there are experts in this thread.

[Sojourner]

They found the sub...

 

 

 

Now can we get back to Ukraine? I'm dying to see some liberation video from Kreminna.