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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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1 minute ago, Huba said:

This is brilliant:

 

A thing the Russians (and the Nazis...) never learned. If your enemy doesn't dare to surrender for fear of what will happen, he will fight to death. If he knows he will be treated well he will often surrender the moment he realizes things go south.

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Just now, Butschi said:

A thing the Russians (and the Nazis...) never learned. If your enemy doesn't dare to surrender for fear of what will happen, he will fight to death. If he knows he will be treated well he will often surrender the moment he realizes things go south.

If introduced en masse, it will also undermine the narrative of Ukrainians being bloodthirsty, and put pressure on RU to introduce something similar (not going to happen, but it puts them in even worse light). RU will have to react, but no idea how. Would they make picking up these calls illegal? Now that's a way to piss everybody off... 
It is really brilliant, I don't see any downside to it.

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34 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

I read everything, from ISW to pro UKR Twitter, this forum and russian sources. 

Why US is never to be blamed, they are very much benefiting from all this,while Germany, Europe and Russia are committing suicide. Is this russian propaganda? 

Your political bias is overriding your ability to objectively look at the facts.

As I stated earlier, the US doesn't have to lift a finger to help Russia keep up the pressure against it.  Russia is doing a fine job all on its own.  If the US blew it up eventually that information would come out and it would set back relations with Europe by decades at the very time that the US' influence in Europe is higher than it has been in decades.  I question many decisions my government has made over the years, but I've never seen one that has used Russia style logic.

The US has no history of such action.  Russia, on the other hand, is hard to examine without seeing many examples of attacks on its own people and infrastructure to support it's goals.

Who did it is very plainly obvious... Russia.  The why, however, is still unclear.  That is not unusual situation.  Very often when Russia does something it takes a little while to figure out what their thinking was.  And even then, it's often not very clear.  Hell, we're still arguing about exactly why Russia started this insane war!

Steve

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20 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

Ukraine also loves big guns, not only Russia

Did Ukraine maybe capture this from Russia and put it back into service?  The other alternative is someone found a whole bunch of 240mm ammo when looking for 152mm rounds and they grabbed the tube from the museum or another dusty warehouse.

Steve

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1 minute ago, keas66 said:

I am continually baffled by the Anti-American Paranoia that emerges from otherwise quite reasonable folks  in all manner of forums  and otherwise civilized countries - who generally owe the continued existence of their Countries ( historically )  in a large part to the efforts of America .

A situation that most Americans having contact with the rest of the world have marveled at.  It is one of the fundamental arguments of the US Isolationists.  Basically, "why should we help others?  All they do is complain and hate us?  Keep our money here and screw everybody else".  Dumb and self defeating ideology, but I have to admit that occasionally a situation arises where I find myself sympathizing with this mindset.

The US for sure does a lot of crappy and self centered things, but the bad is vastly outweighed by the overall good it has done for the world.  My own phrasing of some old guy's better choice of words, "it isn't surprising that America throws its weight around, it is surprising how little it does given how much it could".  The original saying I'm thinking about has to do with the fact that America is the most powerful empire the world has ever known, yet it doesn't behave like other empires.

And with that... can we drop this and move on?  It's totally unproductive and distracting.

Steve

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21 minutes ago, keas66 said:

I am continually baffled by the Anti-American Paranoia that emerges from otherwise quite reasonable folks  in all manner of forums  and otherwise civilized countries - who generally owe the continued existence of their Countries ( historically )  in a large part due to the efforts of America .

Yes, this anti-americanism is like a religion. It is widespread among all the educated-level an live-quality classes. And it is to a great benefit of totalitarian regimes. Is this the russian propaganda bigest masterpiece (ongoing for more than 20 years)?

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26 minutes ago, keas66 said:

I am continually baffled by the Anti-American Paranoia that emerges from otherwise quite reasonable folks  in all manner of forums  and otherwise civilized countries - who generally owe the continued existence of their Countries ( historically )  in a large part due to the efforts of America .

I don't know whom you are referring to precisely. I am continually baffled  that it is so hard to discuss US failings. The USA are far from having a spotless record, they deserve a little suspicion every now and then and it wouldn't diminish US achievement to admit that. We Germans are expected to admit our mistakes every day in this forum. About that continual existance: As someone living on Ground Zero if the Cold War had ever gone hot, I am thankful for US soldiers putting their lives on the line here. But I am also under no illusion that the US (and UK and France) would have hesitated to turn Germany into a nuclear wasteland in order to stop the Soviets/communism.

Come on, criticism is not Anti-Americanism.

Edited by Butschi
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4 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Come on, criticism is not Anti-Americanism.

No, but unfounded conspiracy theories about America's motivations is.  Equating US actions and motivations with ruthless genocidal states is.  Accepting all the benefits that America offers and then ascribing the worst motivations for it doing so is.

Look, this is not productive.  We have already discussed the possibility that someone else other than Russia blew up NS1.  It doesn't hold water.  The most likely suspect is Russia and the reasons for them doing it are many.  Discussing those is valid topic of conversation.

I do not want to go through another round of "American led NATO expansion caused Russia to invade" like we did 1000 pages ago.  It's not productive.

Steve

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2 minutes ago, Butschi said:

I don't know whom you are referring to precisely. I am continually baffled  that it is so hard to discuss US failings. The USA are far from having a spotless record, they deserve a little suspicion every now and then and it wouldn't diminish US achievement to admit that. We Germans are expected to admit our mistakes every day in ghis forum. About that continual existance: As someone living on Ground Zero if the Cold War had ever gone hot, I am thankful for US soldiers putting their lives on the line here. But I am also under no illusion that the US (and UK and France) would not have hesitated to turn Germany into a nuclear wasteland in order to stop the Soviets/communism.

Come on, criticism is not Anti-Americanism.

Maybe we can start a different thread, something like "all the bad things US is doing & has done".  That's fine, I'm US and we've done some despicable things.  And we've done a huge amount of good.  Go ahead and criticize all day -- in that thread.   Heck, let's start w Nicaraugua, 1926.  

And maybe start another thread "let's bitch about Stolz & Germany".  Lots of valid point to be made there.

If we could do these two threads it would really clean up this thread which has been the go-to for many people on what is happening in the war.  I want to be diligent in this forum and not post w/o having read everyone's earlier posts.  But this thread is getting polluted w endless speculation and bitching about things over which we have no control.  

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1 hour ago, Bulletpoint said:

I didn't mean the US. If the US blew up the pipes, I think it would not have much to do with money, but sending a signal to Europe that there's no way back now.

Instead, I thought it could be a private actor actually. There's a lot of money to be made in investing in gas, if you know the price will go up.

But of course it's just speculation.

That's also one option which crossed my mind. NS2 was never going to pay for itself, but who knows if it is insured against acts of terrorism? And scenario's like those.
Anyway I don't think it's likely but it's always good to keep an open mind.

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1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

We put our existence on the line. What could be more expensive?

Which is why Russia was never going to win it even if they didn't intent on showing the world the true face of incompetence. You can't win a war against a people (unless we're talking nuclear / WMD extermination).

 

 

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1 minute ago, danfrodo said:

OK.  Let's keep an open mind.  I think it was greenpeace.  No, wait, it was agents working for Exxon.  No, wait it was fairies.  Oh, wait, just saw report saying maybe it was bigfoot.  Oh, no, gosh it was the chinese because it would ease the way for their imminent invasion of taiwan.  Ooops, no Tucker just said it KAMALA HARRIS, who is well known to be a good scuba diver -- gotcha! -- and Pelosi wired the explosives!   Oh wait Alex Jones just posted that it was the Sandy Hook crisis actors!   Hang on, Noam Chomsky said it was the ghost of Ronald Reagan.  Any other stupid bull**** we need to explore w/o an ounce of evidence?

thanks, I'll take my vacation now.

Well you are stupid if you always assume that the most logical explanation must be true before you can assert it is true. 

Where are you going on vacation? 😉

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25 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Maybe we can start a different thread, something like "all the bad things US is doing & has done".  That's fine, I'm US and we've done some despicable things.  And we've done a huge amount of good.  Go ahead and criticize all day -- in that thread.   Heck, let's start w Nicaraugua, 1926.  

And maybe start another thread "let's bitch about Stolz & Germany".  Lots of valid point to be made there.

If we could do these two threads it would really clean up this thread which has been the go-to for many people on what is happening in the war.  I want to be diligent in this forum and not post w/o having read everyone's earlier posts.  But this thread is getting polluted w endless speculation and bitching about things over which we have no control.  

I bow to your wisdom. 🙂

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