How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[NamEndedAllen]

6 hours ago, JonS said:

The US has a /terrible/ track record with puppet regimes. It's one of the things they just cannot do. Maybe none of /this/ would have happened, but a whole different raft of bedlam would  have ensued.

Puppets, and cricket, are just a no as far as the US is concerned.

Out of likes, but terribly true. Lessons learned yet??!

[NamEndedAllen]

6 hours ago, Grigb said:

When you support RU, but RU does not support you

 

Steve, iirc, discussed the issues about mobilizing various combat and support specialists, the training needed, and the likely failures Russia is accomplishing. I’ve wondered about the other end of the pipeline: bizarre mobilizing of civilian specialists, those in important industry positions, the technical expertises, even in military production positions…all this being ground up in simply incomprehensible madness. 
 

It’s as if Putin is bent on doing the Allies’ work for us all. Tearing down Russia from within, wittingly or not!

[Vet 0369]

10 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

Why did we not act quicker in Yugoslavia then? It's not only about military spending but about culture. The losing countries of WW2 have big cultural taboos about using their armies abroad. Germany and Japan were to never become threats to others again.

Japan has a prohibition of using their Self-Defense Forces outside of their country in their Constitution. Does Germany, France, or any of the other EU members have a same or similar one in any of their Constitutions or Charters?

[chuckdyke]

4 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

Japan has a prohibition of using their Self-Defense Forces outside of their country in their Constitution. Does Germany, France, or any of the other EU members have a same or similar one in any of their Constitutions or Charters?

NATO is an alliance which defends inside the borders of it alliance. The EU by itself is based on European economies. Their defense is inside the framework of NATO.

Edited September 28, 2022 by chuckdyke

[NamEndedAllen]

6 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Because they aren't aggressive enough and don't invest as much in their armed forces as the US would like?

Nah. NATO’s Reanimation is seen as a major accomplishment here - even largely as bipartisan, and a reversal of at least some of USA failures. Not to mention that it is intrinsically a win for the post WWII stability that has enabled economic growth. Imperfect, challenges along the way. But proven by events to still be of great value.

[NamEndedAllen]

6 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Well, that lies most of all in the hands of 'Easterners' themselves with both Warsaw and Budapest causing most of the problems for the EU, not only with regard to democracy and human rights, but also the fact that Poland 80 years after the war  demands 200,000,000,000 zlotys (€1.3 trillion) war reparations of Germany....

https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/short_news/most-poles-believe-germany-should-pay-poland-war-reparations/

I even consider it possible that Berlin has more worries about Poland, than about Russia.

It’s these sorts of exchanges over the years that encourage too many Americans (regrettably!) to embrace extremist isolationism.

[acrashb]

28 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

[...]bizarre mobilizing of civilian specialists, those in important industry positions, the technical expertises, even in military production positions[...]
It’s as if Putin is bent on doing the Allies’ work for us all. Tearing down Russia from within, wittingly or not!

"never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity."  In other words, it is unlikely that Putin intended surgeons, IT specialists, and highly skilled integrated circuit designers to be chewed up on the front line - there is simply no reason to do that, and every reason not to.  He just started a process that could not competently, or in a controlled manner, be carried out the way things are governed in Russia.  The thugs who are implementing mobilization can't tell, and don't care about, the difference between a Buryat farm worker and an urban surgeon.  Quota filled, on to the next batch.

[NamEndedAllen]

6 hours ago, Tenses said:

This. It is a problem for the whole Europe and will blow it up if not stopped. And stopping it means giving a hand to your neighbor even if he acts strange and not in line with others. This breaks the chain reaction of distrust and builds mutual understanding.

Say it again!

(louder)

[NamEndedAllen]

6 hours ago, Taranis said:

Pro-Russian authorities in Zaporizhia region claim victory in annexation referendum

What a surprise ! 93.11 % ! 

Who could’ve known?

 

EDIT: I leave for a vaccination and come back five pages behind! Apologies for multiple posts. 

Edited September 28, 2022 by NamEndedAllen

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, akd said:

Rossiya!

Mobilization in Crimea.

I think that is an AK-47 (not even an AKM) in the hands of the old timer out front.  Hey, at least he has some starts on his shoulders.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Kraft said:

I hope @L0ckAndL0ad is safe and well 

Fingers crossed.  I've been in contact with him, but not in the past few days.  If I hear anything and can relate it here I'll do so.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Cederic said:

The North American one would also be very willing to damage 'friendly' economies to help boost their own world standing as a side-effect of reinforcing support for Ukraine. It wouldn't be the first time.

Er, what?  No, not even close to a possibility.  Similar for the "two eastern European countries".  All three are smart enough to know that the truth will come out eventually and it would be catastrophic for relations to have this be known.  Not to mention the US environmentalists would want the reproductive organs of whomever came up with the idea removed and displayed in public, preferably tied with hemp cord to organic and sustainably grown bamboo posts.

Things were going just fine from the Western perspective prior to NS1 blowing up.  Lots of people, including the US, already benefiting just fine.  No reason to risk decades of blowback for something that doesn't really matter.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Steve, iirc, discussed the issues about mobilizing various combat and support specialists, the training needed, and the likely failures Russia is accomplishing. I’ve wondered about the other end of the pipeline: bizarre mobilizing of civilian specialists, those in important industry positions, the technical expertises, even in military production positions…all this being ground up in simply incomprehensible madness. 
 

It’s as if Putin is bent on doing the Allies’ work for us all. Tearing down Russia from within, wittingly or not!

There was an open letter from some consortium of Russia's high tech sector pointing out that engineers are in tight supply world wide and Russia is already losing them to foreign companies.  Why take a previous resource, which takes 10+ years to train, and give him a rusty rifle and a shove onto the battlefield with 1 day's training?

Putin is absolutely unconcerned about the future of Russia, he's only concerned about his own future.  Huh.  A megalomaniac, autocratic personality only caring about himself.  Wow, what a shocker.

Steve

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Oh I had to go back for this one, cannot resist a theory discussion.  So the reality is that attrition and manoeuvre are not diametrically opposed ideas and you are outlining a clear demonstration as to why.  They are in fact complimentary and intertwined concepts - our myopic, near cult-like adherence to manoeuvre in the west is like waging war “by only turning left”.  

In your first example we see manoeuvre-to-attrition, which is really what we mean when we say manoeuvre warfare.  It is less about actual positioning and more about tempo and synchronicity of that positioning.  The aim is to dislocate your opponent through leveraging higher tempo to strike system nodes and effectively breaking that system apart.  Once broken we always conduct attrition in some form to render the fragments into annihilation.  This is very much what happened at Kharkiv.

At Kherson, the cycle is going the other way - attrition-to-manoeuvre.  This sees detailed and sustained pressure applied to the front end on an enemy’s system.  Tempo and synchronization still matter but the efforts here are on directly erode an opponents combat capability, vice nodes.  Tempo becomes secondary, although important as one want to attrit faster than an opponent can react.  Synchronization moves into primacy in order to maximize combat effects.  This leads to a fracture or collapse within the enemy system that opens up opportunities for manoeuvre, which is then done to support further attrition - it is a cycle.

Both systems require a different emphasis on C2 approaches, as well as tactics and techniques.  Both approaches should be employed and the art of warfare is understanding when and where to employ them better than you opponent.  Further, how to employ them within a campaign context - a series of linked actions - that employ positive, negative and null decision points to compress and collapse your enemies options spaces while sustaining and expanding you own.

This war has been a brilliant example of doing exactly that - well for one side anyway.  Weirdly we have seen examples of manoeuvre within deep strike, and attrition thru hybrid warfare as well.

The war is going to provide completely new staff college curriculum. It will be THE thing that is looked at for the next forty years, unless Xi loses his mind too.

[Battlefront.com]

41 minutes ago, acrashb said:

"never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity."  In other words, it is unlikely that Putin intended surgeons, IT specialists, and highly skilled integrated circuit designers to be chewed up on the front line - there is simply no reason to do that, and every reason not to.  He just started a process that could not competently, or in a controlled manner, be carried out the way things are governed in Russia.  The thugs who are implementing mobilization can't tell, and don't care about, the difference between a Buryat farm worker and an urban surgeon.  Quota filled, on to the next batch.

This is the indication of Putin's lack of concern for his country, despite all the rhetoric to the contrary.  He could have issued orders that made it clear that veering from proscribed mobilization parameters would lead to the immediate arrest of officials caught doing it.  15 years in prison on treason charges.  That wouldn't stop all of this nonsense, but it would have headed of a ton of it.

Likewise, he could have hastily put together review boards to double check the work of the people in the field.  People that obviously shouldn't have been mobilized would be released and if a pattern emerged the official signing off arrested on charges of treason.

Putin is a dictator for f'ks' sake, he can do stuff like this.  What's the point of being a dictator if you don't, er, dictate?

Oh wait, he did dictate some stuff.  Specifically draft dodgers would be punished severely.  Well, yet more evidence of where his priorities are.  He wants hundreds of thousands of cannon fodder available in the shortest period of time, all other considerations secondary.

Steve

P.S. this pattern of Putin not giving a flying fig about Russia is how he got into this mess in the first place.  He could have done things to try and have a functional military, but he didn't care about it and so he got what he paid for.  Nothing.

[billbindc]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is the indication of Putin's lack of concern for his country, despite all the rhetoric to the contrary.  He could have issued orders that made it clear that veering from proscribed mobilization parameters would lead to the immediate arrest of officials caught doing it.  15 years in prison on treason charges.  That wouldn't stop all of this nonsense, but it would have headed of a ton of it.

Likewise, he could have hastily put together review boards to double check the work of the people in the field.  People that obviously shouldn't have been mobilized would be released and if a pattern emerged the official signing off arrested on charges of treason.

Putin is a dictator for f'ks' sake, he can do stuff like this.  What's the point of being a dictator if you don't, er, dictate?

Oh wait, he did dictate some stuff.  Specifically draft dodgers would be punished severely.  Well, yet more evidence of where his priorities are.  He wants hundreds of thousands of cannon fodder available in the shortest period of time, all other considerations secondary.

Steve

P.S. this pattern of Putin not giving a flying fig about Russia is how he got into this mess in the first place.  He could have done things to try and have a functional military, but he didn't care about it and so he got what he paid for.  Nothing.

The thing about Putin just not doing the leg work...or perhaps I should say, not breaking legs until the legwork is done semi-properly...is sticking in my craw a bit. Yes, Russia's got a lot going on right now. Yes, war is really hard and friction's a bitch. Yes, cultural shambolism is going to be there wherever Russian militancy is sold. But...they are *losing* a war that could have them swinging from gibbets if it gets much worse and it's been obvious to anyone even if they have any access to Western media...which Putin certainly does. They *know* that just dumping bodies into the field, pointing and saying "Kyiv's that way" is barely even a stopgap. They *know* screwing mobilization this badly from the get just multiplies every other problem down the line. 

I can't help but think that this looks a lot like a government that's phoning it in because there's nothing much in the way of direction from the top. Something's up with Putin either cognitively or in terms of his power to direct the state. It's that simple. 

 

[asurob]

The Armed Forces of Ukraine have started to take the first prisoners of war from the mobilized vatniks.  The time from forced conscription to POW status is one week.

[NamEndedAllen]

39 minutes ago, billbindc said:

The thing about Putin just not doing the leg work...or perhaps I should say, not breaking legs until the legwork is done semi-properly...is sticking in my craw a bit. Yes, Russia's got a lot going on right now. Yes, war is really hard and friction's a bitch. Yes, cultural shambolism is going to be there wherever Russian militancy is sold. But...they are *losing* a war that could have them swinging from gibbets if it gets much worse and it's been obvious to anyone even if they have any access to Western media...which Putin certainly does. They *know* that just dumping bodies into the field, pointing and saying "Kyiv's that way" is barely even a stopgap. They *know* screwing mobilization this badly from the get just multiplies every other problem down the line. 

I can't help but think that this looks a lot like a government that's phoning it in because there's nothing much in the way of direction from the top. Something's up with Putin either cognitively or in terms of his power to direct the state. It's that simple. 

 

This latter part of Putin’s posthumous Unauthorized Biography is going to be verrry interesting. 

[dan/california]

49 minutes ago, billbindc said:

The thing about Putin just not doing the leg work...or perhaps I should say, not breaking legs until the legwork is done semi-properly...is sticking in my craw a bit. Yes, Russia's got a lot going on right now. Yes, war is really hard and friction's a bitch. Yes, cultural shambolism is going to be there wherever Russian militancy is sold. But...they are *losing* a war that could have them swinging from gibbets if it gets much worse and it's been obvious to anyone even if they have any access to Western media...which Putin certainly does. They *know* that just dumping bodies into the field, pointing and saying "Kyiv's that way" is barely even a stopgap. They *know* screwing mobilization this badly from the get just multiplies every other problem down the line. 

I can't help but think that this looks a lot like a government that's phoning it in because there's nothing much in the way of direction from the top. Something's up with Putin either cognitively or in terms of his power to direct the state. It's that simple. 

 

Given the repeated reports he is playing general with individual BTGs he is pretty obviously engaged, and surely even the worst general in Russia understands that the forces on the west side of the Dnipro need to be pulled back. So I am thinking it is mental decline, as opposed to disconnection. 

 

Edit: Maybe he has acquired a certain someones habit of watching Fox news, and believing it?

Edited September 28, 2022 by dan/california

[danfrodo]

47 minutes ago, asurob said:

The Armed Forces of Ukraine have started to take the first prisoners of war from the mobilized vatniks.  The time from forced conscription to POW status is one week.

oh my gawd.  that is so unreal.  Russian citizen can go from engineer, teacher, doctor, nurse, whatever, to front in days and be captured within a week.  If someone predicted this 2 weeks ago we would've laughed him off the forum.  Ya just can't make stuff up that's crazier than this.

This has got to lead to a revolution????  Doesn't it??? 

[billbindc]

1 minute ago, dan/california said:

Given the repeated reports he is playing general with individual BTGs he is pretty obviously engaged, and surely even the worst general in Russia understands that the forces on the west side of the Dnipro need to be pulled back. So I am thinking it is mental decline, as opposed to disconnection. 

It's the Nicholas II problem. Once old Nicky took the reins directly, everything could be and was blamed on him. I can't shake the feeling that the Russian military knows that and is simply letting inertia and friction have free rein. Also interesting to note that the FSB and associated security organs seemed to have not bothered with measures to control the borders despite the completely obvious rush of military aged males that were likely to head for the exits. Inaction like that starts to look like choice.

[Kinophile]

 

Ahem, BF. Seeeee my ATGMers CAN spot and shoot from prone in tall grass... 

[dan/california]

3 minutes ago, billbindc said:

It's the Nicholas II problem. Once old Nicky took the reins directly, everything could be and was blamed on him. I can't shake the feeling that the Russian military knows that and is simply letting inertia and friction have free rein. Also interesting to note that the FSB and associated security organs seemed to have not bothered with measures to control the borders despite the completely obvious rush of military aged males that were likely to head for the exits. Inaction like that starts to look like choice.

Very much like the last Czar, he appointed every single person in this excuse for a government, and military, practically down to the dog catcher on Sakhalin Island. He does own it, all of it, and it is about to land on his head. After twenty years of absolute power, and then starting this war after consulting with about six people, there simply are no excuses.

[Peregrine]

54 minutes ago, asurob said:

The Armed Forces of Ukraine have started to take the first prisoners of war from the mobilized vatniks.  The time from forced conscription to POW status is one week.

Starting to think the Ukrainians should start publishing collection points where the Russian conscripts can just get off their army truck/bus/hire car/stolen car that shipped them in and simply walk themselves into captivity.

[dan/california]

8 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

 

Ahem, BF. Seeeee my ATGMers CAN spot and shoot from prone in tall grass... 

That is a pet peeve of mine, too. It can be crazy making...