How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

46 minutes ago, keas66 said:

The comedy is getting very very dark .

 

Apparently Pedophiles and  Perverts are in large supply in Russia - as well as the previously mentioned cannibals  .... It's a pity its Fake subtitles !!

Did she say that because she is unaware that Solovyov is a pedophile and a pervert, or because she IS aware of it.

This contest to be the last rat in the cage is beyond hilarious. The onion is out of business, beyond parody! 

[NamEndedAllen]

6 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

With that I agree, Huba, but mentioning the nazi victims is below the belt in this respect. I'm all in favor of sending everything we can and yes, depending on Russian energy was unbelievably stupid, but judge Germany on what it is now, not on what it has been or has done 80 years ago.

 

Guys, you are both wonderful people. Now abandon all hope of changing the past. 

[dan/california]

Not exactly the worlds most credible source, but if true it is a sign of REAL opposition. I am not sure Russia can afford for this to break out very widely.

 

[Kraft]

1 hour ago, akd said:

Mobilization in Crimea.

I hope @L0ckAndL0ad is safe and well 

[Lethaface]

7 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I am going to ignore most of your rant, frankly if anyone were to push that kind of hatred towards any other group they would get tossed off this forum pretty quickly; however, we live in odd times.  

It is well outside the 'respectable' threshold imo. But I've posted enough about him.

[Huba]

1 minute ago, dan/california said:

Not exactly the worlds most credible source, but if true it is a sign of REAL opposition. I am not sure Russia can afford for this to break out very widely.

 

I was wondering if the only way out for Putin now isn't to escalate the pain in society, wait for unavoidable defeat, throw the whole military under the bus for it and act as a savior, accepting unjust but neccesarry peace Tongue in cheek of course, but that would explain RU course of action. 

[dan/california]

48 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Absolutely not re: Germany and Japan.  In fact the US and the western allies poured billions into the reconstruction of both these countries (West Germany obviously) in order to secure a strategic position within their regions.  American culture rubbed off but at no point was there a stated goal to unmake either German or Japanese culture.  In fact in Japan they left the Emperor alone.  

I can only go by what @kraze types here and his logic and position appear very clear.:

All Russians, down to children are responsible for this illegal war in Ukraine.  

All Russians are culturally wired to invade Ukraine, so even a defeated Russia or Ukraine within a collective defensive alliance will protect them.

The answer is to unmake Russia and remove it as an entity - to the point it would include compete fracturing of the country, regardless of risk, into smaller factions that would somehow not have the same Russian identity and cultural wiring to attack Ukraine.  Further, humanitarian crisis are also acceptable within these fractured states as it keep people there from being able to threaten Ukraine.

Ukraine would then become an Eastern European version of Israel (somehow) and be secure in a sea of people that hate them.

Pretty clear to me that a removal of the larger Russian identity is the aim here.  In fact by the logic presented one has to conduct a cultural cleansing or you just push the problem until these fractured nations, all with the poison root Russian culture still in their societies, re-unite to again attack Ukraine.

Capt if Kraze was a spokesman for the Ukrainian foreign ministry you would be right to be concerned. But Zelensky is all but promising Russian soldiers who surrender a nice holiday in Odessa, and a Ukrainian passport. The official Ukrainian position could not be more opposed to Kraze's, well except for Russian soldiers in Ukraine who don't have the sense to give up, those guys deserve whats coming to them. For the rest of Kraze's ranting you are perhaps feeding the guy whose very pseudonym announces he is a troll with a bit too much of your valuable time and attention . 

Very respectfully, value every post you write.

Edited September 27, 2022 by dan/california

[billbindc]

2 hours ago, kraze said:

Not me, just historical facts being cold and cruel. There have been zero times when russian culture showed any humane traits, instead it produces non-stop wars, misery and suffering for literally everyone around them. There's literally no indication that russians will change this time either. Their whole population is absolutely pro-war (as long as most aren't fighting or suffering consequences personally - but that's another story) and shows no signs of wanting to change.

This approach was quite common amongst Americans before the end of WWII. I don't blame them and I won't blame you however much I abhor it. And I abhor it because it's exactly the kind of thinking that you are and should be fighting against. In the event, wiser heads prevailed and we took a softer course. As a result, our enemies then became, almost unthinkably, some of our best Allies. That's maybe something you should consider. 

Edited September 27, 2022 by billbindc

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, billbindc said:

This approach was quite common amongst Americans before the end of the war. I don't blame them and I won't blame you however much I abhor it. And I abhor it because it's exactly the kind of thinking that you are and should be fighting against. In the event, wiser heads prevailed and we took a softer course. As a result, our enemies then became, almost unthinkably, some of our best Allies. That's maybe something you should consider. 

Their are some frankly genocidal country songs from WW2, we sobered up when the shooting stopped.

[NamEndedAllen]

6 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I just follow the facts to where they lead.  He said his motivation was to expose the illegal and immoral use of hacking and tapping, yet he said nothing about Russia did even though he had access to all of that information.  And then he had the balls to spout off about these topics while living in Russia!  No, sorry, what I've said about him isn't harsh enough.  He might have started off as a sanctimonious egotistical arse, but he wound up being a major asset for one of the worst violators of Human Rights on the planet.  As evidence by the genocidal war his new home country is fighting against Ukraine.

By running off to Russia he voluntarily agreed to be an asset even if it didn't start out that way.

Wrong.  He would have received a very fair trial.  The problem is his actions were so clearly criminal in nature and thoroughly documented that he would have gone to jail for sure.  "You do the crime, you do the time" is a very fair system.

Now, obviously he didn't want to be held accountable for his criminal and treasonous activity, so of course he sought refuge elsewhere.  And he gladly accepted sanctuary from a country that is the exact opposite of what he said was so important to him... freedom from surveillance and freedom of expression.  I find it both amusing and ironic that he would have had more freedom if he was in a US prison than in Russia.  In a way, I'm happier with him in Russia than in a US prison.  It's a worse punishment and I his life is not sustained by my tax money.

Russia extended the offer of sanctuary because he was one of their assets.  This is what Russia does to continue poking an adversary in the eye.

Steve

Well said indeed! 
Only the Agencies involved know the full extent of the damage Snowden wrought. But the closer you are able to look, the greater the harm done to not just the USA -  the Allies too. The betrayal also aided terrorists and organized crime by helping them further evade detection. But harm to Russia? Any? No? There was no damaging information concerning Russia?  Then this was a successful Russian op sowing confusion to its enemies. Regardless of the mindset of its instrument.

[The_Capt]

5 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Capt if Kraze was a spokesman for the Ukrainian foreign ministry you would be right to be concerned. But Zelensky is all but promising Russian soldiers who surrender a nice holiday in Odessa, and a Ukrainian passport. The official Ukrainian position could not more opposed to Kraze's, well except for Russian soldiers in Ukraine who don't have the sense to give up, those guys deserve whats coming to them. For the rest of Kraze's ranting you are perhaps feeding the guy whose very pseudonym announces he is a troll with a bit too much of your valuable time and attention . 

Very respectfully, value every post you write.

Well thanks for this to start.  I firmly believe you are correct.  Ukraine has waged this war well within the law of armed conflict, frankly demonstrating admirable restraint with respect to POWs and especially targeting within Russia itself - a master class in precision strikes against legitimate military targets.  

Further, if any Russian picks up a weapon and deploys to Ukraine, he has earned the right to be engaged until he is dead or no longer a combatant - all stop.  Further those responsible for the egregious Russian war crimes must be prosecuted.  Finally, reparations must be made by Russia to pay for this war.

Russia needs to definitively  lose this war and frankly has already.  I personally do not like the idea of a collapsed and fractured Russia, too many unknowns and risks; however, if it the only way this goes, so be it.

Ukraine needs to definitively win, and will.  At least to pre-war borders and they are fully entitled to re-taking the pre-2014 lines, we have talked about the risks there too.

However, one thing I have learned over the last three decades is that winning means more than on the battlefield, it means whatever comes next.  I have zero doubts that there is a minority in Ukraine that share the same sentiments, and I really do get why.  But as a nation Ukraine needs to rise above it and become the regional counter-power it has already demonstrated it can be.

Kraze is entitled to his opinion and all; however, I will not leave his calls for more atrocity and crimes on the table unchallenged.  Anymore than if a Russian poster came here trying to justify the same.

 

[Fenris]

1 hour ago, keas66 said:

The comedy is getting very very dark .

 

Apparently Pedophiles and  Perverts are in large supply in Russia - as well as the previously mentioned cannibals  .... It's a pity its Fake subtitles !!

 

That's gold.  Coward in a space cadet uniform had me laughing out loud.  Send all the useless people, far out.

[danfrodo]

1 minute ago, Fenris said:

 

That's gold.  Coward in a space cadet uniform had me laughing out loud.  Send all the useless people, far out.

I laughed so hard at this.  And I bet what they really said was actually even crazier than what was made up.

[chuckdyke]

4 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Kraze is entitled to his opinion and all; however, I will not leave his calls for more atrocity and crimes on the table unchallenged.  Anymore than if a Russian poster came here trying to justify the same.

He needs to realize that in the eyes of a lot of westerners there is stimuli generalization. In other words, as a people no difference between Ukraine and Russia. Much the same what I experienced in Australia. Job interview do you speak a language other than English. Yes, Dutch and German. Answer: Oh, it is the same anyway. He is doing the Ukrainian cause more harm than good. See Ukrainians as a people in their own right. Hitler played on these sentiments Slavonic speaking peoples were sub human it cost him the war.

[cesmonkey]

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/3663008-12-3-billion-for-ukraine-included-in-continuing-resolution/
$12.3 billion for Ukraine included in continuing resolution

Quote

The proposal would allocate $3 billion for weapons, logistical assistance and intelligence support under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative and up to $3.7 billion in presidential drawdown authority.

The measure would also appropriate $1.5 billion to replenish stocks of U.S. equipment provided to Ukraine or other countries who have supported Ukraine at the request of the U.S. through presidential drawdown authority.

A separate $540 million is included to increase production of critical munitions to replace defense articles sent to Ukraine or other countries that have supported Kyiv.

The bill also allocates $2.8 billion for continued military, intelligence and other defense support for Ukraine.

Aside from security assistance, the bill includes $4.5 billion to help maintain the operations of Ukraine’s government, including its ability to maintain macroeconomic stability and provide basic citizen services, as well as $35 million to respond to potential nuclear and radiological incidents in Ukraine.

 

[JonS]

5 hours ago, Kinophile said:

FYI, I personally didnt know about the Totskoye exercise. Fascinating event. 

A slightly different approach to investigating the same problem set:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Blowdown

[Cederic]

3 hours ago, Probus said:

In my humble but correct opinion , Putin just couldn't stand not using his shiny new submarine the Belgorod which is specifically designed to work on the bottom of the ocean.

 

Sure. Good luck hiding that in the Baltic. Still, thank you for distracting us from all the flirting going on.

It is to be fair very likely that the charges on the pipelines were rigged days ago, and either on timers or remotely triggered. Why be spotted at the scene of the crime when you can have high confidence nobody's going to ask what those strange lumps attached to the pipe are.

But that also means it's possible a surface vessel launched a submersible of some form, or even just divers. How many trawlers have been in that area in the last couple of weeks?

(I almost asked Russian trawlers, but I'm refusing to assume which country was responsible. I could name five that might think they'd heavily benefit, and that's not including the French.)

 

 

[dan/california]

Looks like the Russians are going to get to back up at least one more river.

[JonS]

2 minutes ago, Cederic said:

r on timers or remotely triggered.

I think that's a given, no? A diver or sub close to the site would be utterly wrecked by 100kg going 'pop' underwater with them.

[Cederic]

2 hours ago, Artkin said:

Lol.

"Out of the German army’s 31 Tiger attack helicopters, only 10 were operational while only eight out of 33 NH-90 transport helicopters were ready for duty", "Meanwhile, the Luftwaffe could only deploy 42 of its 109 Eurofighter Typhoon multirole fighters and only 24 of the 56 remaining Transalls were available at any given time."

 

This was in 2015. I'm not sure what the difference between "Total number" and "Available" are. The vehicles absent are either sitting in storage awaiting repairs, or are vehicles undergoing upgrades, or are deployed for operations abroad, or something similar maybe?

If you look at the number of Tornado's it's telling.

Out of 89 total Tornado fighter bombers, only 66 were available and only 38 deployable.

Eurofighters - 109 total, 74 available, but only 42 deployable.

Even Marders, 400 vehicles with only 280 available/deployable. A couple brigades isn't a whole lot to fight with on the Eastern Front.

Only half their CH-53's are available, with only 16 deployable from the original total of 83.

 

I'm no German military expert, nor an expert in the first place, but if you haven't noticed the issues with the Bundeswehr... well apparently the Fliegerkorps.. you have been living under a rock.

4 deployable Sea Lynx ASW helicopters. Yeah good luck defending the Baltic Sea with that. 

Pulling Germany’s Armed Forces Back From the Brink | by War Is Boring | War Is Boring | Medium

Ramshackle Army at Odds with Berlin's Global Aspirations - DER SPIEGEL

 

Let's not forget the EU President's time as Germany's Defence Minister:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/germany-s-neglected-soldiers-forced-to-use-broomstick-as-a-gun-glnqbndf6

 

[Probus]

10 minutes ago, Cederic said:

I could name five that might think they'd heavily benefit, and that's not including the French.

 

 

I am curious, which countries do you think have the most to gain by blowing the pipeline.  My wife said that Putin had a lot to gain by blowing the pipeline.  It takes some of the coop pressure off him if oligarchs have no financial reason to put him out of office.  But she may have read that on this thread TBH, I can't remember.

[Cederic]

6 minutes ago, JonS said:

I think that's a given, no? A diver or sub close to the site would be utterly wrecked by 100kg going 'pop' underwater with them.

While a depth charge or torpedo is unlikely, an unmanned suicide submersible is viable, as would inserting an explosive laden pig into the pipe.

I look forward to forensic examination of the sites by Denmark and others, if we're ever allowed to hear what they find.

[The_Capt]

8 hours ago, TheVulture said:

Getting on to more abstract military theory, this seems like one of those situations where it always seemed to me that maeouverists and attritionists were in violent agreement (i.e. arguing with each other but saying the same thing, because they can't get past their straw man of the others position).

The maneouverists would point to the wisdom of not assaulting Lyman head on and trying to force the battle there, but rather attack weaker points, encircle Lyman and render the Russians there irrelevant, meaning that they can be captured or mopped up for virtually no cost later on.

The attritionists would say that this is attrition warfare, encircling the enemy in order to destroy them, rather than chasing off after some pie in the sky maneouverist goal of targeting the mythical 'center of gravity' that would destroy the Russian's will to fight.

So they both end up advocating the same thing (because it is pretty obviously the most sane course of action) while misrepresenting what the other school of though would do.

Same applies to Kherson - I'm sure Ukraine would rather avoid street by street fighting in Kherson if at all possible, and simply cut off any Russian forces that stay there, and then wait them out. Unless there is a pressing reason to do otherwise.

Oh I had to go back for this one, cannot resist a theory discussion.  So the reality is that attrition and manoeuvre are not diametrically opposed ideas and you are outlining a clear demonstration as to why.  They are in fact complimentary and intertwined concepts - our myopic, near cult-like adherence to manoeuvre in the west is like waging war “by only turning left”.  

In your first example we see manoeuvre-to-attrition, which is really what we mean when we say manoeuvre warfare.  It is less about actual positioning and more about tempo and synchronicity of that positioning.  The aim is to dislocate your opponent through leveraging higher tempo to strike system nodes and effectively breaking that system apart.  Once broken we always conduct attrition in some form to render the fragments into annihilation.  This is very much what happened at Kharkiv.

At Kherson, the cycle is going the other way - attrition-to-manoeuvre.  This sees detailed and sustained pressure applied to the front end on an enemy’s system.  Tempo and synchronization still matter but the efforts here are on directly erode an opponents combat capability, vice nodes.  Tempo becomes secondary, although important as one want to attrit faster than an opponent can react.  Synchronization moves into primacy in order to maximize combat effects.  This leads to a fracture or collapse within the enemy system that opens up opportunities for manoeuvre, which is then done to support further attrition - it is a cycle.

Both systems require a different emphasis on C2 approaches, as well as tactics and techniques.  Both approaches should be employed and the art of warfare is understanding when and where to employ them better than you opponent.  Further, how to employ them within a campaign context - a series of linked actions - that employ positive, negative and null decision points to compress and collapse your enemies options spaces while sustaining and expanding you own.

This war has been a brilliant example of doing exactly that - well for one side anyway.  Weirdly we have seen examples of manoeuvre within deep strike, and attrition thru hybrid warfare as well.

[Cederic]

1 minute ago, Probus said:

I am curious, which countries do you think have the most to gain by blowing the pipeline.  My wife said that Putin had a lot to gain by blowing the pipeline.  It takes some of the coop pressure off him if oligarchs have no financial reason to put him out of office.  But she may have read that on this thread TBH, I can't remember.

Not just the oligarchs, anybody that might want to end the war to get the gas flowing again. If anything, the oligarchs feel less likely as they've demonstrated terrible flying skills of late; for Putin destroying strategic assets is overkill compared to, erm, just killing them.

But step back and think who else benefits from this.

Anybody that feels Germany and other EU nations might waver in their support for Ukraine, in an attempt to keep industry working through the winter (let alone avoid rolling blackouts or citizens dying from cold) could consider removing the means to re-enable the gas supply reduces the option space, making it less likely that support will be withdrawn. There are two Eastern European nations I think would hold that view, and one North American one.

The North American one would also be very willing to damage 'friendly' economies to help boost their own world standing as a side-effect of reinforcing support for Ukraine. It wouldn't be the first time.

Then there are the people not involved in Ukraine at all. They get to cause economic turmoil in the EU, boosting their own exports while also strengthening their own case for being Russia's largest natural gas customer.

Russia remain favourite, if nothing else because of the risks and associated fall-out should anybody else be found to have done it. However..

 

[Probus]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

I am going to ignore most of your rant, frankly if anyone were to push that kind of hatred towards any other group they would get tossed off this forum pretty quickly; however, we live in odd times.  

The Russian military and political system are responsible for this war.  I have no doubt some of the population does as well; however to blame an entire people - who you don’t recognize as a people, yet point to them as an evil homogeneous empire that has been a threat for hundreds of years - down to many who have nothing to do with this or actively opposed it, nor had a say in it because Russia lacks a democratic system, is wrong on so many levels.

If in your fractured Russian scenario - the one you are promoting, and I notice no denial of you promoting cultural genocide either btw- Russian elderly, women and children show up on on your borders in a humanitarian crisis I expect you and your nation to be better than the a$$holes we are currently supporting your nation against.  If you cannot do that - and for the record I really do not believe you represent your nation - then why are we even bothering with this whole war?  If a post-war Ukraine is suppressing democracy in re-taken regions, actively supporting civil strife in former Russian fragments (which would have to be in your plan), and let potentially thousands of people die because of their ethnicity (oh wait Russian isn’t a thing, so, how will you tell who to keep out) - the what the hell are we defending here?

If we wanted a brutal regime in Ukraine to ignore human rights and suppress freedoms based on pseudo-ethnicity then why we didn’t we just sit back and let Russia take the damn place?

I stand with Ukraine in this war, but I do not stand with you on this.  We want a Ukraine with a fully functional democracy for all its citizens, a Ukraine that recognizes and operates under international law and respects human rights, regardless of who is suffering.  That is the Ukraine that gets into NATO/EU - with Hungarian arm twisting if need be.  That is the Ukraine we invest hundreds of billions in reconstruction. That is the Ukraine we support and enforce Russian accountability for.

Not whatever nightmare you are selling here.

Well said!