How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Butschi]

2 minutes ago, Armorgunner said:

Nordstream 1 and 2. Gaslines from Russia to Germany is blown up, it look like . At four places, at the same time. 70-80 meters below surfare, so probably by some SF frogmen. And not enviromental ones

What's so funny about that?

[Armorgunner]

1 minute ago, Butschi said:

What's so funny about that?

Russia loose money?

[Huba]

3 minutes ago, Armorgunner said:

Nordstream 1 and 2. Gaslines from Russia to Germany is blown up, it look like . At four places, at the same time. 70-80 meters below surfare, so probably by some SF frogmen. And not enviromental ones

Looks like it, reportedly confirmed by seismographic monitoring all around the Baltic. Poland started the mourning already:

On a more serious note, I'm sure it was the russkies, with the goal of sowing fear and discord between EU countries. I wait for dead frogmen to be found, with written orders from Duda and Zelensky.

Edited September 27, 2022 by Huba

[Peregrine]

4 minutes ago, Armorgunner said:

Nordstream 1 and 2. Gaslines from Russia to Germany is blown up, it look like . At four places, at the same time. 70-80 meters below surfare, so probably by some SF frogmen. And not enviromental ones

Its BIG NEWS in Swedish media today. Love it

Maybe they were just standing near the edge of an undersea shelf and accidently fell off.

[Armorgunner]

Just now, Peregrine said:

Maybe they were just standing near the edge of an undersea shelf and accidently fell off.

Who knows 

[DerKommissar]

Anyone know what happened to the 50-something Leo C2s that were retired in 2015-ish?

Last I heard, no one wanted to buy them. I hope they didn't get scrapped or turned to Swiss cheese, at the range.

[billbindc]

5 minutes ago, Armorgunner said:

Nordstream 1 and 2. Gaslines from Russia to Germany is blown up, it look like . At four places, at the same time. 70-80 meters below surfare, so probably by some SF frogmen. And not enviromental ones

Its BIG NEWS in Swedish media today. Love it

It is quite likely from where I sit that the Russians did this themselves. Ukraine may seriously want them shut down but Zelensky would not risk creating an environmental disaster in Danish, German and Swedish waters. He would also not challenge their territorial sovereignty in so crude a way. Furthermore, the gas was barely flowing anyway. I have no inside knowledge but everything here points to Russia. With no gas flowing, the carrot wasn't getting them much so they decided to go all stick by destroying transfer capability completely. This has  bunch of knock on effects including showing will, making clear that Norwegian pipelines can be equally destroyed, ruining a potential carrot an anti-Putin faction could offer the West, etc.

A very stupid move of course, since at a stroke a lot of influential German manufacturers now have no reason at all to lobby for a softer policy. The possibility of Russian gas is likely now gone so cold turkey and a new energy dispensation is the only sensible policy. Typical Putin.

[Kraft]

8 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

I think it is very double faced for the Germans to state they are not sending tanks because nobody else is and at the same time they are blocking everyone from sending any German made tanks first. In Europe German made tanks are almost the only option. 

The whole arms supply by Scholz has been one huge circus of misdirection, false claims, red herrings and moving goalposts.

One day it is because it would be a burden on the Ukrainians (the most outragious claim in my opinion, and to say it while Ukraine is actively asking for Tanks&APCs..) to keep them in working condition, then it is because nobody else is sending them [(Scholz isn't letting them); (except more modern soviet modifications from Poland that Scholz cant block)] btw Germany already send tanks through the circle circus via Poland, which is being said almost in the same sentence sometimes. Has anyone mentioned how long it takes to train them, surely this war will be done next month. Lets not start training then (...).

There is no rational reason why 60 year old IFVs from a private company cant be sent when the Bundeswehr has delivered weapon systems far more capable in killing Russians than those rusty troop transporters. 

I assume they are afraid of some unknown entitiy that will become angry if German tanks roll east. Confusingly, nobody seems to have that problem besides the SPD as the public and other parties as a whole (except neo nazis & tankies) are largely for sending heavy stuff.

Edited September 27, 2022 by Kraft

[Taranis]

"Photo of the bubbling observed by the Danish army on Tuesday. RITZAU SCANPIX / VIA REUTERS"
 

Quote

“Nord Stream 1 has two leaks northeast of Bornholm, Nord Stream 2 has one leak south of Dueodde. The leaks were discovered by the Danish Defense F-16 Interceptor Response Unit,” the Danish Ministry of Defense wrote in a statement. “The biggest (bubbling) agitates the surface for a good kilometer in diameter. The smallest makes a circle about 200 meters” in diameter, explains the Danish army. The posted video was recorded by a navy helicopter.

 

[Butschi]

9 minutes ago, Armorgunner said:

Russia loose money?

There is no gas going through either pipeline anymore. So, no, Russia doesn't lose money.

[TheVulture]

1 minute ago, billbindc said:

It is quite likely from where I sit that the Russians did this themselves. Ukraine may seriously want them shut down but Zelensky would not risk creating an environmental disaster in Danish, German and Swedish waters. He would also not challenge their territorial sovereignty in so crude a way. Furthermore, the gas was barely flowing anyway. I have no inside knowledge but everything here points to Russia. With no gas flowing, the carrot wasn't getting them much so they decided to go all stick by destroying transfer capability completely. This has  bunch of knock on effects including showing will, making clear that Norwegian pipelines can be equally destroyed, ruining a potential carrot an anti-Putin faction could offer the West, etc.

A very stupid move of course, since at a stroke a lot of influential German manufacturers now have no reason at all to lobby for a softer policy. The possibility of Russian gas is likely now gone so cold turkey and a new energy dispensation is the only sensible policy. Typical Putin.

Hard to see how Russia gets anything from this though, and they'd have easier ways to shut down the pipelines by ... er ... shutting them down.

Istead the cynic in me notes that shutting down the Nordstream pipelines is something the US has long wanted, and the outcomes of this are all likely to be ones that the US desires.

[Armorgunner]

1 minute ago, billbindc said:

It is quite likely from where I sit that the Russians did this themselves. Ukraine may seriously want them shut down but Zelensky would not risk creating an environmental disaster in Danish, German and Swedish waters. He would also not challenge their territorial sovereignty in so crude a way. Furthermore, the gas was barely flowing anyway. I have no inside knowledge but everything here points to Russia. With no gas flowing, the carrot wasn't getting them much so they decided to go all stick by destroying transfer capability completely. This has  bunch of knock on effects including showing will, making clear that Norwegian pipelines can be equally destroyed, ruining a potential carrot an anti-Putin faction could offer the West, etc.

A very stupid move of course, since at a stroke a lot of influential German manufacturers now have no reason at all to lobby for a softer policy. The possibility of Russian gas is likely now gone so cold turkey and a new energy dispensation is the only sensible policy. Typical Putin.

Germany was moving to LN2 anyway. So this is just the fastlane there

[Armorgunner]

5 minutes ago, Butschi said:

There is no gas going through either pipeline anymore. So, no, Russia doesn't lose money.

Thats not true! NS 1 was shut down for maintenence works, a month or two ago. But It was intended to deliver this winter! Not so more tho

Edited September 27, 2022 by Armorgunner

[Huba]

The timing couldn't be better:

 

[akd]

Russia gonna russia:

 

[panzermartin]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

And make no mistake - we are going to be the new Israel here. And we won't be in NATO exactly for that reason, let's be realistic.

Hmm after this lengthy war is over Ukraine will probably be in debt for the rest of its existance. That means no sovereignity at all in contrast with Israel. West are no just friendly helpful pals but people that count their money. The economic flow towards Ukraine is insane at the moment. Expect IMF and the banks to hold Ukrainian national assets hostages for a century or so. But a small price to pay to bring Russia to its knees I guess. 

[The_MonkeyKing]

5 minutes ago, Taranis said:

"Photo of the bubbling observed by the Danish army on Tuesday. RITZAU SCANPIX / VIA REUTERS"
 

 

This North Stream sabotage was mainly made to indirectly threaten that this might very well happen to Norwegian gas lines as well. Or so I believe.

[TheVulture]

Just now, Armorgunner said:

Thats not true! NS 1 was slut Downey 

I'm guessing that's a good autocorrect fail for "shut down"

[Armorgunner]

1 minute ago, TheVulture said:

I'm guessing that's a good autocorrect fail for "shut down"

Yea fixed that

[Kraft]

1 minute ago, panzermartin said:

Hmm after this lengthy war is over Ukraine will probably be in debt for the rest of its existance. That means no sovereignity at all in contrast with Israel. West are no just friendly helpful pals but people that count their money. The economic flow towards Ukraine is insane at the moment. 

How many billions of Greek debt was written off to not send your country into another crisis caused by its own government spending?

[Zeleban]

2 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Hmm after this lengthy war is over Ukraine will probably be in debt for the rest of its existance. That means no sovereignity at all in contrast with Israel. West are no just friendly helpful pals but people that count their money. The economic flow towards Ukraine is insane at the moment. Expect IMF and the banks to hold Ukrainian national assets hostages for a century or so. But a small price to pay to bring Russia to its knees I guess. 

 

The West already has money in the form of arrested Russian assets. As long as Russia is able to threaten, the West hesitates to use them. But in the event of the defeat of Russia, the situation will change

[Butschi]

3 minutes ago, Kraft said:

The whole arms supply by Scholz has been one huge circus of misdirection, false claims, red herrings and moving goalposts.

One day it is because it would be a burden on the Ukrainians (the most outragious claim in my opinion, and to say it while Ukraine is actively asking for Tanks&APCs..) to keep them in working condition, then it is because nobody else is sending them [(Scholz isn't letting them); (except more modern soviet modifications from Poland that Scholz cant block)] btw Germany already send tanks through the circle circus via Poland, which is being said almost in the same sentence sometimes. Has anyone mentioned how long it takes to train them, surely this war will be done next month. Lets not start training then (...).

There is no rational reason why 60 year old IFVs from a private company cant be sent when the Bundeswehr has delivered weapon systems far more capable in killing Russians than those rusty troop transporters. 

I assume they are afraid of some unknown entitiy that will become angry if German tanks roll east. Confusingly, nobody seems to have that problem besides the SPD as the public and other parties as a whole (except neo nazis & tankies) are largely for sending heavy stuff.

Nobody likes how Scholz is handling this. That doesn't mean there aren't a lot of Germans who are just afraid of WW3. These people are very much in line with what Scholz is doing. 

Also, I'll say it for the umpteenth time: You can rightly criticise that the West as a whole is not willing to send tanks and IFVs. But as long as neither US nor UK nor any other western country with domestic tank development and production is willing to send their stuff it is rather hypocritical to single out Germany.

[billbindc]

26 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

Hard to see how Russia gets anything from this though, and they'd have easier ways to shut down the pipelines by ... er ... shutting them down.

Istead the cynic in me notes that shutting down the Nordstream pipelines is something the US has long wanted, and the outcomes of this are all likely to be ones that the US desires.

Putin wants to lock Russia in. Just turning off the pipelines allows a potential successor to offer a reversal. It's a bargaining chip to get Western support (that he's taking away from a potential successor, to be clear). 

Edited September 27, 2022 by billbindc

[The_MonkeyKing]

1 minute ago, billbindc said:

Putin wants to lock Russia in. Just turning off the pipelines allows a potential successor to offer a reversal. It's a bargaining chip to get Western support. 

This is a great point!

Might apply to multiple all in decisions Russia is now doing.

Edited September 27, 2022 by The_MonkeyKing

[Butschi]

7 minutes ago, Armorgunner said:

Thats not true! NS 1 was shut down for maintenence works, a month or two ago. But It was intended to deliver this winter! Not so more tho

Yeah, so funny that the energy prises will rise even more so that the poorer people can't afford heating any more. I'm laughing my *ss off.