How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

6 minutes ago, DerKommissar said:

Just so. Hence, the only lasting victory here, involves a pro-West puppet regime to keep this under control.

This. And this regime have to rule by "stell hands in velvet gloves", providing de-rashization and growing new generation, new eites, which can posess reins of government through 20 years as minimum. Together with this money from Russian resourses selling have to be moved for such things, that even in deep Syberian ot Buriatian villages inhabitants could have all those, which Russian soldiers looted in Ukrianian villages. In order to Russians could feel that new ruling is better than old and to have toilet in the beuatifull house is better that to live in old rotten barrack with toilet on the street and smelly dump nearby, but to proud by "Russian special way", and think "we are living hard, but let all in the world fear us, because we are great invinsible state".

But the question - how this "external ruled" government and leader to put in Moscow without direct intervention... 

[Harmon Rabb]

Some interesting videos of anti mobilization protests in Estonian Soldier's latest video.

Surprise surprise a lot people don't seem to be eager to become mobiks.

[Tenses]

9 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Also, a new Russia will not be able to count on oil and gas revenues much longer for building up another army. I don't see Europe returning to the "wandel durch handel" policy anytime soon, and demand for fossil energy is decreasing daily in general.

This is one of the reasons Putler actually started this war. Europe soon would cease to be good client for oil and gas, while in the east he has clients, which were not there 20, 30 years ago. Europe with fossil fuel demand was a stupid and good paying client, who gladly "sold the rope, for him to be hanged". In 15 years(if it survives in more or less current shape) it will be only another useless high-tech and high-standard of living collection of states, which is dangerous as some Russians might like this kind of life more than potatoes and vodka.  

[Haiduk]

20 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

You cannot "manage" a nuclear state.

Future Russia under "external ruling" must be not only de-rashized, but also de-nuclearized

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, billbindc said:

"Simonyan exclaimed: “Let me remind you that in 1905, small things like these led to the first mutiny of an entire military unit in the history of our country. Is that what you want?” She starkly warned: “You’re toying with armed people.”"

https://www.thedailybeast.com/putins-top-cheerleaders-panic-over-mobilization-mutiny

It's quite a tell that Putin's main propagandists are seeing the widening gyre that we see saying it publicly. 

It really is a contest to see what part of the regime falls apart first.

37 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

Two things happened - some guy shot up a school in Russia and killed himself afterwards  (while wearing shirt with swastika and having "hatred" written on his guns or something) and some other guy shot a mobilisation commissar.

I'm pretty sure we're talking about the latter, and mobilisation office is a valid military target.

But yeah, why not deliver some guns and radios to Dagestan now?

_______

 

I will die laughing if his conscription papers were at the bottom of the pile of paperwork.

20 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Ah, ok very clear now thanks.  Whew, well Ukraine joining NATO should defuse a lot of this.  If the next war occurs under Article 5, well it will be a very different war.

Then we risk manage a rogue state - frankly not much else we can do beyond some shaping ops in the subversive warfare space.  The Cold War strategy was containment and enticement, not sure if that will work based on your assessment.

Ok, and this is NOT from he sanest member of this forum, let focus on Socks and IFVs. In addition to arguing ourselves in circles while changing no ones mind, we are also counting chickens before they are hatched. Everybody, and by everybody I mean the entire NATO alliance and friends, needs to take a deep breadth and concentrate on what Ukraine need to break this first wave of conscripts utterly, and be ready for second one.

 

If enough pressure can be applied to the Russian government to achieve effective regime collapse the process is likely going to be very chaotic, and only minimally subject to outside influence at least for a while. The relevant three letter agencies need to have literally a dozen scenarios all planned out. None of them will be right but hopefully one of them is close enough to get a head start on the insanity to come.

Just to ease tempers on the forum a bit we should start talking in terms of scenarios, regime failure mode A, regime failure mode B, ect. Someone should make a list. I mean the end of civilization is worth getting worked up over. but getting worked up doesn't help. Neither does scotch, unfortunately. Plans, scenarios, being one step ahead of any of nine different ways this can break down completely might, maybe, if we are lucky...

[Ultradave]

3 hours ago, Tenses said:

2) Russia uses strategic warhead on some big city(not really an option IMHO). Response is the same as before but on the entire Russian territory. Main targets are all nuclear capable military vehicles/structures. This might look like escalation but really, if you see a crazy guy killig a child just before your own eyes you don't think like "hey it's not my child, I don't even know it's parents", but instead you just beat the s**t out of him no matter what. This is what people do with crazy elements to keep the rest of society reasonably healthy.

This is not realistic. The only possible way for the US (or if you will, US, UK, France) to do this is with ICBMs. Russia is BIG and their nuclear sites are geographically diversified. We (those 3) don't have a bunch of conventional warhead ICBMs, (not any, really) and it wouldn't matter anyway. They could not physically destroy Russia's nuclear capability using only conventional weapons, HOWEVER, Russia would not stand by and watch it happen. They, like us, would interpret a targeted attack on nuclear weapon infrastructure as an existential threat and would have to respond immediately, before our missiles landed, with a full nuclear attack on the west. There's no other optional response. We would do the same. Use it or lose it. There's no way to know that the incoming missiles on a trajectory to eliminate nuclear sites, are "only" conventional, and either way - it's an attack to eliminate a country's nuclear response capability.

Another wild card is that Russia has SSBNs out there too. Not as many, not quite as capable, but that's kind a moot point. Even ONE, is enough to cause catastrophic damage all across the US. Same as with ours. I'd not like to be the Admiral who has to guarantee that our SSNs could sink EVERY Russian boomer before they can fire. Our SSNs are good, but I kind of doubt that we have that guaranteed capability. I have no inside knowledge on that. I just design, build and test them.

Dave

[Cederic]

14 hours ago, Combatintman said:

Nine months of my life on operations in the role, two years of my life in a PSYOPs unit and three months of my life on courses suggest otherwise ...

Ah, I should perhaps apologise. I was speaking in the context of people complaining that the West need to develop/improve their psyops against civilian populations.

I can trace military psyops back to WW2, targeting both civilian populations and military opponents. Propaganda does however tend to be a Government activity rather than a military one; military interactions are usually far more nuanced and targeted, and the suggestion at hand around targeting Russian civilians would in the UK be initiated by non-military entities taking advantage of civil resources (such as the BBC).

Military psyops feel more applicable to the suggestion someone made around depositing caches of vodka, or intercepting Russian supplies of toilet roll to the frontline troops. I'm sure you'll find that a naive assumption, but I would nonetheless stand by my belief that political entities in the US are more capable than military ones at influencing public opinion.

[akd]

Special Unit Kraken in the liberation of Balakliya:

 

[sburke]

for those proposing fomenting a Russian armed resistance, forget that idea.  This takes a lot of organizational commitment and a mass movement of support that you can hide in.  Clearly the response to the "partial mobilization" shows there is nothing even close to a mass antiwar movement.  In fact, there doesn't seem to be much of an antiwar movement at all, just a "leave me alone" movement. The likelihood of this accomplishing anything of significance hovers right around zero.

Russians are gonna have to clean up their own house and the only way that will happen is if the West maintains a united stance that we don't do business with them till they meet certain terms, war crimes trials and reparations being only the first step.

As a military threat Russia is done but as a potential source of continued turmoil - that is pretty much a given.  

As to the Russians fleeing, personally I'd close the borders.  Tell them to go back and change their government and take responsibility for the mess they created.  Those that harass Ukrainian refugees should be immediately deported back.

[Letter from Prague]

10 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I will die laughing if his conscription papers were at the bottom of the pile of paperwork.

That is happening - except not to Snowden:

 

[Haiduk]

12 minutes ago, akd said:

Special Unit Kraken in the liberation of Balakliya:

 

During active phase of offensive 9 Kraken fighters have fallen

[Huba]

38 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

This. And this regime have to rule by "stell hands in velvet gloves", providing de-rashization and growing new generation, new eites, which can posess reins of government through 20 years as minimum. Together with this money from Russian resourses selling have to be moved for such things, that even in deep Syberian ot Buriatian villages inhabitants could have all those, which Russian soldiers looted in Ukrianian villages. In order to Russians could feel that new ruling is better than old and to have toilet in the beuatifull house is better that to live in old rotten barrack with toilet on the street and smelly dump nearby, but to proud by "Russian special way", and think "we are living hard, but let all in the world fear us, because we are great invinsible state".

But the question - how this "external ruled" government and leader to put in Moscow without direct intervention... 

Doesn't sound like a really realistic option, does it? I absolutely don't see normalization with Russia in any foreseeable future.
Best case scenario we could count on in my opinion consists of RU being defeated militarily, leading to political upheaval and regime change (though hopefully not outright civil war). Hopefully UA retakes all of it's territory, all the RU "near abroad" manages to get out of the yoke (Georgia/ Transinistria/ Belarus), perhaps some nations break out of the prison itself too. Then we welcome (some of) them in NATO, build a wall along the border (figuratively, fence is more proper), and depending on the situation in the RU itself, leisurely negotiate a permanent peace agreement, for which I don't see a real prospect.
As we more or less agreed previously, the only "just" peace acceptable to UA and the West would entail RU paying reparations and allowing for war crimes prosecution. Well, fat chance for that happening. While reparations can be just "taken" from frozen RU central bank assets (although at a cost to stability of global finance system), reasonable war trials I don't see happening. Would RU hand over retired Putin? Pryghozin and his crew? Girkin et consortes? Let's say that I'm skeptical.
Thing is that in this scenario we at the West, and even UA don't really need the peace deal. Energy sanctions will stop bothering us in a few years. RU will sell it's much needed commodities elsewhere, and the global market will even things out. They don't export anything unique enough that we would want it. As export market they are negligible (except for megayachts and jewelry, these sectors will permanently suffer  ). Things might work itself out as time passes, and in the meantime NATO could use an actual (though not really serious compared to Cold War) threat to reinvigorate itself a bit and be ready for future challenges elsewhere...
 

Edited September 26, 2022 by Huba

[dan/california]

31 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

You cannot "manage" a nuclear state. Influence it sure, maybe leverage internal tensions to be a kingmaker, but at the end of the day, if they get out of your control, there is nothing you can do to get it back due to the nuclear control, and I think Ukraine understands that better than anyone, which is why undoubtedly, despite NATO and EU membership, Ukraine will retain faith in their armaments rather than completely in alliances. 

Since Russia is eternal, we might as well go for total victory in Ukraine, since it will be impossible to ensure Russia does not come back. 

"natural state" imo, if there is a lesson to take from the experiences in the Middle East, nation building is impossible. Nation changing is near impossible. Nation changing a nuclear power is also impossible. The contrast that lots of people who advocate nation building miss is the two shining examples of it being successful, Japan and Germany both were nations, and therefore we were not "nation building" but revitalizing. 

A ignorance of Ukraine is probably contributing to the idea that Western aid to Ukraine is "nation building", no Ukraine has its own nation and society and structure that we are merely revitalizing and assisting. Big differences. 

We have only had a twenty year, several trillion dollar lesson that countries can't really be changed, or assembled, to order.

9 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Future Russia under "external ruling" must be not only de-rashized, but also de-nuclearized

There is an inherent tension between the short and long term. The best longterm scenario is Russia broken into ten-ish parts with all of those giving up their nukes in return for various financial incentives and security guarantees. That happy ending requires the hardest and riskiest path in the short term, complete with the loose nuke round up. The lowest risk path is a relatively clean coup in Moscow that lets us negotiate an acceptable short to medium term arrangement regarding withdraw from all of Ukraine, return of all forcibly deported Ukrainians and, and. I don't think any regime that still controls most of Russia will denuclearize, so there is a permanent risk of it resorting to less reasonable management. I also think we are fooling ourselves about how much control we will have when this nine time zone Jenga tower goes over. It is an inherently chaotic process.

[DerKommissar]

31 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

But the question - how this "external ruled" government and leader to put in Moscow without direct intervention... 

That's a hard question, no doubt. Here's a couple of steps that can be taken right now:

1. Unite the Opposition under a Pinochet II. Forget Navalny.

2. Arm and train the Opposition. Recruit middle class people to help out.

3. Ready a synchronous coup, for whenever an opening presents itself.

4. Strike when the iron is hot. Put Pinochet II behind the wheel.

5. Get to work on free trade, demilitarization and, eventually, democracy. 

No expert in clandestine services, so take these with a pinch of salt. However, a pro-West puppet regime is the best outcome, for everyone.

17 minutes ago, sburke said:

for those proposing fomenting a Russian armed resistance, forget that idea.  This takes a lot of organizational commitment and a mass movement of support that you can hide in.  Clearly the response to the "partial mobilization" shows there is nothing even close to a mass antiwar movement.  In fact, there doesn't seem to be much of an antiwar movement at all, just a "leave me alone" movement. The likelihood of this accomplishing anything of significance hovers right around 

There are people who are willing to risk their lives against Putin, that's a start. Organization is a problem, but also an opportunity -- because there are no domestic Pinochets to deal with.

Putin will collapse eventually. The idea is to have the next leader be a devout pro-West puppet. Armed resistance is good, but optional.

Edit: Some of these draft dodgers can be deported with new orders, or trained in-house.

Edited September 26, 2022 by DerKommissar

[sburke]

Just now, DerKommissar said:

There are people who are willing to risk their lives against Putin, that's a start. Organization is a problem, but also an opportunity -- because there are no domestic Pinochets to deal with.

Putin will collapse eventually. The idea is to have the next leader be a devout pro-West puppet. Armed resistance is good, but optional.

What people?  I haven't seen any significant signs of resistance.  2 nut cases going off doesn't qualify.  Even the anti-mobilization protestors haven't shown any real support for Ukraine.

[sburke]

dang and they share the same telephone country code.  They might want to ask for their own...

Kazakhstan rejects Russia’s attempts to annex Ukrainian territory and calls for respecting sovereignty (msn.com)

[Haiduk]

11 minutes ago, DerKommissar said:

2. Arm and train the Opposition. Recruit middle class people to help out.

This will not work. Russian middle class almost completely "out of politic". Their ideal - comfort life, without any social and political activity and responsibility... maybe except coala problems in Australia. Russian middle class just will pack own goods and relocate to Europe, Turkey, Emirates, Georgia... 

Edited September 26, 2022 by Haiduk

[dan/california]

Anxious to see if we can get any confirmation of this one. Has there been anymore about the Iranian drone trainers?

 

[cesmonkey]

3 hours ago, MikeyD said:

I was genuinely surprised to see TOW being used in Ukraine. If its a question of ATGM supply-and-demand, one would imagine we have a lot more spare in-storage TOWs to provide than any other system.

This was announced on August 19th.

Quote

The second in this kind of missile category is for the land domain, we're providing TOW missiles, so 1,500 TOW missiles. 

https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3134558/senior-defense-official-holds-a-background-briefing/

[Tenses]

Speaking of Iranian drones, is there any quick and easy to integrate into AFU fix to this new threat? It seems like the biggest single technology aquired by Russia since the start of the war and provides quite dangerous capabilities.

[Calamine Waffles]

TOW is probably the single most produced missile in the Western world, so it's not surprising some will be sent to Ukraine at some point.
 

This is like combining the Fallschirmjaeger with the Volkssturm.

[Grigb]

Small update - according to RU claim they reinforced Lyman area with additions RU regular units. Looks like they believe UKR will assault Lyman from Ridkodub direction. 

[Calamine Waffles]

3 minutes ago, Tenses said:

Speaking of Iranian drones, is there any quick and easy to integrate into AFU fix to this new threat? It seems like the biggest single technology aquired by Russia since the start of the war and provides quite dangerous capabilities.

I would say put some sort of integrated radar fire control on ZU-23s coupled with a radar optimised for tracking small, slow targets like the Shahed.

[Grigb]

1 minute ago, Tenses said:

Speaking of Iranian drones, is there any quick and easy to integrate into AFU fix to this new threat? It seems like the biggest single technology aquired by Russia since the start of the war and provides quite dangerous capabilities.

AA guns. 57mm, Shilkas, even .50 cal AA mounts. 

[Huba]

Just now, Grigb said:

AA guns. 57mm, Shilkas, even .50 cal AA mounts. 

MANPADS with TI sights for 24h coverage. But more importantly means to detect them in time (so radars) and distribute the information to the gun/ missile crews - and that is the truly hard part. For the larger ones, I think NASAMS will help immensely, especially if configured with mast-mounted radars.