How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Bil Hardenberger]

Sooo.. after reading this thread the past few days it appears, to me, that the UA culminated in their counter-attack around Kharkiv a few days ago... I now believe that Kherson was a feint and never had, and still doesn't have, enough combat power to close the sack. They are maintaining the pressure though... but they haven't cracked the Russian line yet, not that I've seen.

Perhaps they are already doing it and that's why it appears like progress has slowed, but I think this is the point for consolidating and reassessing the next area to concentrate on.  These grinding recon ops that we are seeing now are costly and probably aren't giving the Ukrainians much in return, other than fixing the Russians in place, which might be their intent.

Hopefully they are readjusting as we speak and another offense will kick off in the next week or two with another major breakthrough. That is what I suspect anyway.

Bil

[Cederic]

8 hours ago, Huba said:

Herr General warns that if we ship too much weapons, we won't be able to defend ourselves if Russia decides to open a second front. FFS, this really isn't funny, who is this guy?

He's the guy on the hook for assuring Germany can defend itself against military aggression.

You'd hardly expect him to be going, "Ja, hier ist alle ihr Panzer." After years of under-investment in the Germany army he's probably deeply concerned whether his forces will be able to meet their own commitments.

Sure, the UK and US are emptying their stockpiles but they've got greater reserves and more time to respond to military aggression. Yes, Poland are demonstrating a different risk appetite and policy, but that's Poland, not Germany.

Since it would be entirely wrong to actually support Germany, I'll close with: Why on earth would he give 500 Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine when he can hang on a few months and sell them instead.

[Haiduk]

 

[dan/california]

3 minutes ago, Cederic said:

He's the guy on the hook for assuring Germany can defend itself against military aggression.

You'd hardly expect him to be going, "Ja, hier ist alle ihr Panzer." After years of under-investment in the Germany army he's probably deeply concerned whether his forces will be able to meet their own commitments.

Sure, the UK and US are emptying their stockpiles but they've got greater reserves and more time to respond to military aggression. Yes, Poland are demonstrating a different risk appetite and policy, but that's Poland, not Germany.

Since it would be entirely wrong to actually support Germany, I'll close with: Why on earth would he give 500 Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine when he can hang on a few months and sell them instead.

Because there is a very real risk that Ukraine and Poland are going to wind up being equipped with Abrams, and the South Korean tank instead. This will cost Germany both a very great deal of influence, and a significant long term revenue stream from parts, maintenance and so on.

[billbindc]

43 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

However, I think a major downside from this war is not the conventional deterrence vs China re: Taiwan, it is going to be a doubling down on unrestricted warfare/systems warfare to which we in the west are particularly vulnerable. 

Can you elucidate this?

[Battlefront.com]

15 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

I highly, highly doubt autonomy will be granted to the Donbas, nothing will be given that provides cover to separatist claims of special status to the Donbas or minority rights of Russians.

And I don't think that would fly with most Ukrainians either.  However, granting them autonomy right away isn't necessary.  Picture a formal cease fire with the only precondition being that Russian forces must leave LPR territory.  The relationship between Kyiv and Luhansk remains the same as it has been for the past 8 years, but Ukraine benefits tremendously in the short term.  What happens after the immediate war situation is determined later on after Russia is defeated.  At that point people on both sides will have the ability to focus on the future.  LPR without Russia will need to concede a lot to Kyiv if it doesn't want to collapse.  And if it does collapse, then Ukraine has the ability to capitalize on that in a focused way.

15 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Crimea is more likely but I'm pretty doubtful there as well.

And I fully doubt Ukraine will allow a special carve out for the Donbas like a ceasefire for extended negotiations, nothing will be done to legitimatize the separatists, mark my words.

A cease fire doesn't legitimize the separatists, it simply recognizes that they are currently shooting and that isn't fun for anybody.

15 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Sure, Ukraine may find the cost in blood to be hard. But it would be even more costly to allow the Donbas the special status now that one day Russia will take advantage of to meddle in Ukraine once again.

Devil is in the details.  I can envision something where the Donbas has little to no say in Ukrainian politics, which is exactly not what Russia was pushing for with Minsk II.

Steve

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, billbindc said:

Can you elucidate this?

I think he means leveraging things like Tik Tok, and other less public means to increase division and indecision in the U.S. and E.U. political systems. Out right seizing/banning Tik Tok would an excellent first countermove to demonstrate we are serious about the next phase. 

[Battlefront.com]

20 minutes ago, Bil Hardenberger said:

Sooo.. after reading this thread the past few days it appears, to me, that the UA culminated in their counter-attack around Kharkiv a few days ago...

That does seem to be the case, though it's hard to tell because the weather at the moment is not conducive to major moves.  Weather looks dicey through all of next week too, so Ukraine might have scaled back any follow up plans due to change in weather.

20 minutes ago, Bil Hardenberger said:

I now believe that Kherson was a feint and never had, and still doesn't have, enough combat power to close the sack. They are maintaining the pressure though... but they haven't cracked the Russian line yet, not that I've seen.

It's hard to tell as the news blackout there is pretty through, but it doesn't feel like a feint to me.  It feels like a tough slog through well prepared defenses by a defender that isn't folding up like a cheap suit as it did in Kharkiv.

If Ukraine has decided that its Kharkiv offensive is done for the season, I could see it transferring its lighter forces and artillery down to Kherson.

Steve

 

[Cederic]

On 8/19/2022 at 6:15 PM, Huba said:

This shift towards 105mm is interesting, what would be the reason for that?

We have an answer!

 

[dan/california]

3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

If Ukraine has decided that its Kharkiv offensive is done for the season, I could see it transferring its lighter forces and artillery down to Kherson.

It might be time to really utilize that interior lines advantage, and see if they can catch the Russians with their reserves stuck on rail sidings in Rostov on Don. If they have any reserves???

[Haiduk]

6 minutes ago, Cederic said:

We have an answer!

This guy from 46th air-assault. Kherson direction

[Battlefront.com]

Not surprisingly, Western media and analysts are picking apart the statements coming out of the Putin-Xi meeting and finding it pretty easy to draw some conclusions:

Quote

President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia said on Thursday that Moscow understood that China had “questions and concerns” about the war in Ukraine — a notable, if cryptic, admission from Mr. Putin that Beijing may not fully approve of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

And...

Quote

After the meeting, China released a statement saying that it was “ready to work with Russia in extending strong support to each other on issues concerning their respective core interests.”

It was a strikingly different tone from Mr. Xi than in early February, before the invasion. The two countries issued a joint statement before the start of the Winter Olympics in Beijing describing their partnership as having “no limits.”

Sounds like whatever Putin was hoping to get out of the meeting likely didn't happen.  Big surprise, eh?

Quotes are from NY Times, behind the paywall I think:

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/09/15/world/ukraine-russia-war

Steve

[G.I. Joe]

1 hour ago, Artkin said:

Thanks for the insight, I'm not surprised.

India seems like a very fast paced environment with the extreme population density they have to suffer with.

It appears for sure they have ditched reliance from Russia and have instead decided to buy from the west.

They have AH-64E!

C130, the Air force's light workhorse airlifter. They had 6, but one crashed. If that seems small, their Il-76 fleet was only 17 in 2010. Apparently the Indian Air Force uses Boeing 737s too, maybe just for personnel.

and they are buying C17, Air force's medium workhorse airlifter.

 

It appears that they are in the process of slowly modernizing their kit. The transport planes are a good sell. I'm sure they're super reliable.

The Indian Navy also uses the P-8 Poseidon.

Vietnam also seems to be quietly pivoting towards a more pro-U.S. stance in recent years.

[sburke]

2 minutes ago, G.I. Joe said:

The Indian Navy also uses the P-8 Poseidon.

Vietnam also seems to be quietly pivoting towards a more pro-U.S. stance in recent years.

not surprising.  China has been their worst enemy for decades.

[G.I. Joe]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

 

The Indian government seems to combine the worst characteristics of third world corruption and U.S. style democratic sclerosis. There are zillion interest groups that have to bought off publicly, AND another zillion bureaucrats who need their palms greased, to do anything at all. So the default position is to do nothing, ever. Modi seems to have made this much worse, outside of a showcase project or two, and added a nice dose of religious extremism. Not sure where it goes from here, but not hopeful. 

As far as their defense industry goes, depending on Russia for weapons to fight China, or Chinese proxies with seems unwise. See above for why i don't expect them to arrive at a good solution.

 

I seem to recall in the not so distant past (but pre-Modi, IIRC) some political scientist or other described India's system of government as, in practice, "a higher-functioning anarchy" or something to that effect...

[danfrodo]

20 minutes ago, G.I. Joe said:

The Indian Navy also uses the P-8 Poseidon.

Vietnam also seems to be quietly pivoting towards a more pro-U.S. stance in recent years.

I think Vietnam very much wants to start getting manufacturing that foreign companies can move out of china since china making itself look less and less reliable.  Stupidest dang thing ever, china scaring the goose that lays the golden eggs.  Stessed geese lay less eggs.

[G.I. Joe]

14 minutes ago, sburke said:

not surprising.  China has been their worst enemy for decades.

Exactly. And I suspect that the impact of this war on Russia will accelerate Vietnam's rapprochement with the U.S. considerably. I would not be at all surprised if the VPAF are flying F-16s by early next decade.

Just imagine an airshow demonstrator anniversary paint scheme with silver paint and blotchy green camo to look like an old MiG-17 or MiG-21...oh, the irony.

[sburke]

11 minutes ago, G.I. Joe said:

Exactly. And I suspect that the impact of this war on Russia will accelerate Vietnam's rapprochement with the U.S. considerably. I would not be at all surprised if the VPAF are flying F-16s by early next decade.

Just imagine an airshow demonstrator anniversary paint scheme with silver paint and blotchy green camo to look like an old MiG-17 or MiG-21...oh, the irony.

MiG-17F Jet Aerobatics | Cleveland National Air Show (clevelandairshow.com)

[The_MonkeyKing]

Mad burns going around.

For the Americans; Usula is little like the prime minister of European Union.

Her "roots" come from Germany, from the Merkel administration. Making the burn even hotter.

[FancyCat]

22 minutes ago, Cederic said:

He's the guy on the hook for assuring Germany can defend itself against military aggression.

You'd hardly expect him to be going, "Ja, hier ist alle ihr Panzer." After years of under-investment in the Germany army he's probably deeply concerned whether his forces will be able to meet their own commitments.

Sure, the UK and US are emptying their stockpiles but they've got greater reserves and more time to respond to military aggression. Yes, Poland are demonstrating a different risk appetite and policy, but that's Poland, not Germany.

Since it would be entirely wrong to actually support Germany, I'll close with: Why on earth would he give 500 Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine when he can hang on a few months and sell them instead.

One, Germany got itself in this position due to bad PR. Sucks but if Macron who still sticks his foot in the mouth regarding Putin skates pass you somehow, you know you screwed up.

Two, again, Scholz's coalition partners are actively stabbing him in the back (or more the front at this point). His opposition is as well.

Three, as the largest European economy and mainstay of the EU alongside France, it must lead the EU, and lead Europe. Up until now, Europe has been in crisis and stagnation, and still is, but this crisis may be a valuable turning point for Europe. Certainly this represents a point where Russian influence can be cast out for a decade.

11 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

And I don't think that would fly with most Ukrainians either.  However, granting them autonomy right away isn't necessary.  Picture a formal cease fire with the only precondition being that Russian forces must leave LPR territory.  The relationship between Kyiv and Luhansk remains the same as it has been for the past 8 years, but Ukraine benefits tremendously in the short term.  What happens after the immediate war situation is determined later on after Russia is defeated.  At that point people on both sides will have the ability to focus on the future.  LPR without Russia will need to concede a lot to Kyiv if it doesn't want to collapse.  And if it does collapse, then Ukraine has the ability to capitalize on that in a focused way.

A cease fire doesn't legitimize the separatists, it simply recognizes that they are currently shooting and that isn't fun for anybody.

Devil is in the details.  I can envision something where the Donbas has little to no say in Ukrainian politics, which is exactly not what Russia was pushing for with Minsk II.

Steve

I mentioned this earlier, a ceasefire and withdrawal of Russian forces monitored with what? UN mission? (Not NATO lol)(OSCE?) I highly doubt any monitoring mission is gonna occur, but if there isn't, Ukraine will have to regain control over customs and border control and station forces inside separatist areas to monitor the withdrawal. Once LPR and DPR lose the ability to defend their territory, even if Ukraine holds to the ceasefire (which it certainly might not), there isn't a lot for the LPR and DPR leadership to feel safe anymore from a visit by SBU.

Also...what constitutes LPR and DPR forces? Russia flooded the Donbas with personnel. Russian MoD has control over large sections of the forces of the LPR and DPR. Ukraine itself declares that all separatist forces are Russian.

I could see a ceasefire where Russian forces must leave, but Ukraine declares all armed personnel in the LPR and DPR are Russian and kicks them out.

Imo, if the LPR and DPR leadership have any sense, they will attempt to one, retain armed forces, two, establish legitimacy of separatist government, three, and most importantly, keep the borders with Russia open for resupply and personnel reinforcement.

Also, a situation where Russia can still flood in arms, supplies, personnel into the Donbas without being at war with Ukraine is absolutely a win. (Why Ukraine must regain customs and border control and alongside it, armed forces inside the Donbas)

I could totally see a situation where what I've laid out above occurs, a ceasefire with Russia is declared, Russia withdraws but the LPR and DPR can regroup, rearm and defend the remaining Donbas with Russia retaining the unique ability of having its borders and territorial control to be completely undiminished (nukes, etc) and Ukraine forced to deal with international sentiment being "ehhh". No, this is not viable. And again, any conditions where Ukrainian demands are met, are going to likely result in the LPR and DPR leadership fleeing or doubling down and holding out anyway.

Steve, I'm not sure you understand that the 2022 invasion changes everything. Pre-invasion, I would think everything you suggested is viable. Having Donbas be carved out from influencing Ukraine, (imo, carving the Donbas from influencing Ukraine is separatism btw, as the Donbas will influence Ukraine naturally as a response to Ukraine administrating the region, what your suggesting is legitimating their separatism) sure, entirely possible, something Zelensky promised to find a resolution towards.

Post-invasion, things have changed. I don't think it can be understated that Russia sought to conquer the entire country and wipe out all pro-Ukrainian sentiment with genocide. Every report we have indicates civilians in the occupied territories being "filtrated" for pro-Ukrainian sentiment and those identified being either killed, deported, or tortured or if lucky, just monitored. I'm exceedingly surprised the Ukrainians don't line up every Russian soldier and collaborator and shoot them. Everything we have in terms of evidence indicates Russia fully intended (and is carrying out in occupied regions) on lining up and executing their opposition, peaceful and violent. They fully intended on cleaning Ukraine of opposition, civilian and military in a manner that is clearly targeted towards the Ukrainian nationality. 

This is not a clean war. War is never clean, and this war has not been clean at all since 2014 but certainly 2022 marks a huge escalation in Russia attempting to seize all of Ukraine, and in attempting the same "separatist republics" filtration in Kherson as in the Donbas.

Maybe Ukraine opts along your lines, it's entirely possible. I think it's much more likely Ukraine cleanses their society, in order to safeguard from this occurring again.

Now, obviously aside from whatever I stated, the Donbas is a important economic part of Ukraine, there are millions of people who probably wish to return to their homes in the Donbas, etc, etc.

But it really comes down to whether Ukraine considers the Donbas theirs, and whether the cost in blood is worth retaking it all. I think certainly after facing their near destruction, the amount of blood Ukraine is willing to shed for regaining their land and people has certainly gone way up. Let Crimea and Lugansk and Donetsk remain free to cleanse the Ukrainians still there and sit back? Doubtful.

(Reminder, they are still there. The massive human intel, partisan action indicates this)

[Butschi]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

Because there is a very real risk that Ukraine and Poland are going to wind up being equipped with Abrams, and the South Korean tank instead. This will cost Germany both a very great deal of influence, and a significant long term revenue stream from parts, maintenance and so on.

But that is not his business, he's not the CEO of Krauss-Maffei Wegmann. His business is to make sure the Bundeswehr can defend Germany and our allies. While I admit that this is not entirely unrelated to the business case, it is certainly not no. 1 priority.

EDIT: And there is always a tyrant around who needs to buy some tanks in order to suppress his people. /irony off

Btw. where do you guys get the number of 2000 tanks from? AFAIK the Bundeswehr has around 300 Leos - and only a fraction of them are combat-ready.

Edited September 15, 2022 by Butschi

[poesel]

10 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Her "roots" come from Germany, from the Merkel administration. Making the burn even hotter.

Even better - Uschi has been a very unsuccessful minister of defense (like her predecessors). She was supposed to be the successor of Merkel, but was promoted away to the EU. Peter principle.

[dan/california]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Many months ago when we first started talking about Putin's replacement there were a number of conditions we agreed were necessary for this to happen.  One of which was a solid candidate for replacing him.  Prigozhin's name was raised as just such a possibility.  Now we're seeing his name quickly gaining attention.  This is not a coincidence.

In some ways Prigozhin taking over might be the best way for Putin to retire instead of having a heart attack.  My guess is Prigozhin would be able to convince Putin to step down "for health reasons".  From what I can tell there is trust between the two and Putin might be able to see that his position is untenable.  Maybe. 

The larger plan would be to have Putin step down, the constitutional successor stand in as a figurehead, and either call for early elections (Duma would need to stamp that) or wait until the 2024 date to come up.  Prigozhin could spend that time shoring up his base of support ahead of taking power in the open.

Steve

The most immediate problem I see with Prigozhin's rise is that he seems dependent on continuing/more conflict. His whole play is military competence, so his accession requires the war in Ukraine to continue, or starting some sort of conflict somewhere else just to keep the politics pushing the right way. This seems to greatly increase the odds of Russia fighting Ukraine to the point of utter failure, followed pretty quickly by some of the more extensive breakup scenarios. Because their just won't be an army left.

[The_MonkeyKing]

26 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Mad burns going around.

For the Americans; Usula is little like the prime minister of European Union.

Her "roots" come from Germany, from the Merkel administration. Making the burn even hotter.

In general I have been starting to wonder what is the actually definitions of the limitation at this moment?

Armored vehicles that look like western and have manned turrets?
(because we already have remote turret western APCs and PT-91 is a modern tank made in the west that just looks eastern)

[dan/california]

3 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

In general I have been starting to wonder what is the actually definitions of the limitation at this moment?

Armored vehicles that look like western and have manned turrets?
(because we already have remote turret western APCs and PT-91 is a modern tank made in the west that just looks eastern)

Something the vast percentage of the population that is utterly illiterate in military matters recognizes.