How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[billbindc]

Of interest: 

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/russian-public-opinion-ukraine-war-putin-approval-rating-by-andrei-kolesnikov-and-denis-volkov-2022-09

 

[Huba]

Just now, The_MonkeyKing said:

All depends on the situation on the ground.

This could be an enabler for Russians to retreat orderly from all or part of their positions. Or if Russian situation is good enough they could indeed remove Ukrainian Bridgehead and so one of the three attack directions.

Given that the news of the dam keep developing to a worse direction. 

There's another video from just around the dam. And DefMon astutely observes that it might also screw the Daryivka crossing that RU uses.

 

Edited September 14, 2022 by Huba

[danfrodo]

35 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Zelensky visited Izyum earlier today. 

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/xe0hze/volodymyr_zelenskyis_arrival_in_deoccupied_izyum/

I wonder if his security detail has US weaponry for political reasons.  Certainly sends a multi-layered message, such as "American weapons protect us" or "we are embracing our future", etc.  According to US military guys they certainly didn't pick the M4 because it's a great rifle

Steve

So what is a good modern  military rifle, in your opinion?  I've seen videos saying "this is next US rifle" but I can't keep track of what is speculation and what is for real.

[danfrodo]

3 minutes ago, Huba said:

There's another video from just around the dam. And DefMon astutely observes that it might also screw the Daryivka crossing that RU uses.

 

Remember there's not an infinite amount of water behind the dam.  There will be a surge and it will do damage but it's a one-shot weapon.  Water levels will go back down, though civilian infrastructure will probably suffer significantly.  

[The_MonkeyKing]

1 minute ago, Huba said:

There's another video from just around the dam. And DefMon astutely observes that it might also screw the Daryivka crossing that RU uses.

 

Seems pretty bad, the target is clearly the dam and strike could have taken it out. There are going to be successive strikes until Russians get the result they want.

The destruction seems limited so far so I am guessing this is maximum emergency release to empty the basin as fast as possible in somewhat controlled way, before more strikes that could cause a catastrophic near instant failure.

[The_MonkeyKing]

1 minute ago, danfrodo said:

Remember there's not an infinite amount of water behind the dam.  There will be a surge and it will do damage but it's a one-shot weapon.  Water levels will go back down, though civilian infrastructure will probably suffer significantly.  

Indeed, I am waiting for some actions by the Russians in the near future. 

My guess is a retreat from the north side of Inhulets River

[Huba]

3 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Seems pretty bad, the target is clearly the dam and strike could have taken it out. There are going to be successive strikes until Russians get the result they want.

The destruction seems limited so far so I am guessing this is maximum emergency release to empty the basin as fast as possible in somewhat controlled way, before more strikes that could cause a catastrophic near instant failure.

I'm not sure TBH. Perhaps the increased release over a longer period of time would be more beneficial, cutting bridgehead for longer?

I wonder how the rest of RU positions along the river (and settlements there) will be affected by this.

Edited September 14, 2022 by Huba

[Bulletpoint]

3 hours ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Does the writing on the gun say "fury"? Someone likes that Brad Pitt movie.

Well it goes with their whole nonsense about fighting "nazis".. Imagine at the end of Fury, the plot twist is that Brad Pitt is actually in the SS without even realising it.

[dan/california]

48 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

The dam:

The river:

I say braking this dam would be a big help for the Russians Kherson defense. 

 

16 minutes ago, Huba said:

I'm not sure TBH. Perhaps the increased release over a longer period of time would be more beneficial, cutting bridgehead for longer? It is not clear to me if there's a significant risk to the city itself, or any settlements on the way.

I have bee looking for a good hydraulic model of the area around Kherson for a while. Lacking said model I agree with the above that it isn't going to impact the the Ukrainian bridgeheads for all that long. And will certainly also affect the Russians river crossings. A last ditch measure to enable a retreat across the Nova Khahovka dam while limiting the Ukrainians ability to shell it into utter disaster makes the most sense. But the Ukrainians also have significant forces on the far North side of the pocket that can pursue such a retreat. This does coordinate sensibly with the attempts to fill the damaged bridge at the Nova Khahovka dam with Rubble. It all points to one last desperate throw to get their forces out. 

Remember it is the RUSSIANS who get bleeped if the big dam at Nova Khahovka was to be destroyed. The eastern/southern side of the river is notably lower. So all of the Russians forces massed between Melitipol and the Dnipro would be at risk of flooding, starting with ALL the artillery supporting the pocket from the other side. Huge civilian casualties too and ect., but it would just bleep the Russians utterly.

Edited September 14, 2022 by dan/california

[Huba]

I wish The_MonkeyKing was right and all that is to cover their retreat. But my bet is that they'll continue on for some more time, and use this to counterattack and try to beef up the Dnipro crossings in the same time. We'll know very soon I guess, perhaps tomorrow.

[Vet 0369]

18 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

There are guardrails on what the "opponents" say on these shows, but it seems they are widening.  You could not say "war", you could not even hint that Russia was being defeated, you definitely couldn't acknowledge that Ukraine exists.  Three things that this guy had no problems saying.

The problem with Putin's pressure relief system is that it's been allowing less relief and more pressure for some time now.  While it is impossible to say what exactly is going on, there seems to be a change and it definitely isn't something we saw earlier in the war.

Steve

I expect they are preparing the RU population for full mobilization. Historically, Russia has needed a “major” threat to Mother Russia to convince the general population to give their full support to the regime.

[Huba]

Here's a photo. It looks like the dam itself is unaffected, but the gates were hit and water is going through. Perhaps it means that whole volume of the reservoir won't be released? 

[Mindestens]

Quote

Kyrgyz and Tajik border guards exchanged fire in three separate incidents in a border dispute on Wednesday, killing at least two people, officials on both sides said.

The clashes came on the eve of a regional security summit, and a day after new fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan raised fears of instability spreading to other parts of the former Soviet Union while Russian forces fight in Ukraine.

Kyrgyz border guards accused the Tajiks of having taken positions at a part of the border that has not been demarcated. The Tajik side said Kyrgyz guards had opened fire on a Tajik outpost without any provocation.

Source: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/world/fresh-clash-erupts-between-kyrgyz-tajik-border-guards-2022-09-14/

[danfrodo]

11 minutes ago, Huba said:

Here's a photo. It looks like the dam itself is unaffected, but the gates were hit and water is going through. Perhaps it means that whole volume of the reservoir won't be released? 

forget my earlier post about water amount limited -- that is a gigantic reservoir.  Yikes!  

[billbindc]

 

A very interesting thread: 

[Huba]

Even better view, stolen from Wolski. It looks like the gates at the right were hit:

[The_MonkeyKing]

12 minutes ago, Huba said:

Even better view, stolen from Wolski. It looks like the gates at the right were hit:

Good pic. Accurate hit by the Russians. I am sure the keep hitting until they get the results they are after.

[dan/california]

20 minutes ago, billbindc said:

 

A very interesting thread: 

Very  good read! 

[panzermartin]

Huh? Sounds more like a flat Tyre

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11212515/Putins-limousine-hit-loud-bang-possible-attack.html

[dan/california]

Russian timing on the dam strike might be very poor, or it might be related to this news. They have effectively divided the pocket right when the AFU are making a push on the southern side. Was this intentional or accidental?

[billbindc]

2 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Russian timing on the dam strike might be very poor, or it might be related to this news. They have effectively divided the pocket right when the AFU are making a push on the southern side. Was this intentional or accidental?

Definitely not accidental but it's not clear if the strike was simply a strategic punishment strike, an operational strike to slow down the UA in Kherson or some mix of the two. I'd personally suppose the latter. It's anyone's guess not in the Ukrainian general staff whether this is a bad or good thing for them. It comes down to the delta between how much it further damages Russian force generation vs how much it does that to the Ukrainians. I'd be fairly sure the Russians don't really know themselves.

[Cederic]

4 hours ago, Kinophile said:

a post-war UA army as both NATO but also deliberately mirroring some Polish approaches

In a fight I'd rather have the Poles on my side than the French, the Germans, the.. well, the rest of Europe.

Nonetheless.

Ukraine doesn't need to mirror anybody's approach. Their way of fighting a war may not be optimal in a NATO style aerial dominance theatre but NATO absolutely needs to learn from and supplement how Ukraine has successfully mocked a near-peer adversary.

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, Cederic said:

In a fight I'd rather have the Poles on my side than the French, the Germans, the.. well, the rest of Europe.

Nonetheless.

Ukraine doesn't need to mirror anybody's approach. Their way of fighting a war may not be optimal in a NATO style aerial dominance theatre but NATO absolutely needs to learn from and supplement how Ukraine has successfully mocked a near-peer adversary.

Ukraine plus Poland plus the Baltics, was a great power once. Don't rule out that they can be again, triply so if Belarus were to get rid of Lukanhesko.

[danfrodo]

2 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Definitely not accidental but it's not clear if the strike was simply a strategic punishment strike, an operational strike to slow down the UA in Kherson or some mix of the two. I'd personally suppose the latter. It's anyone's guess not in the Ukrainian general staff whether this is a bad or good thing for them. It comes down to the delta between how much it further damages Russian force generation vs how much it does that to the Ukrainians. I'd be fairly sure the Russians don't really know themselves.

Maybe it's desperate attempt to get UKR to negotiating table to try to freeze the conflict.  I expect lots of staged 'attacks' on nuke plant.  What other cards to Putin have to play other than creating damage that he hopes will get URK to the table?  he can't win but he can lose big and soon.  

[RandomCommenter]

Hi guys,

Long time lurker, first time poster here. I have been reading these boards since early March and I have to say that this is the single best source on the internet I have found to find out what is actually going on on the ground in Ukraine. I also really respect the way you guys generally keep it civil and the community you have built with things like the laptop for Haiduk. So massive respect to you all from me.

 

One question I have, if I may. Something I have not seen a lot of discussion of recently is that early in the war the Ukrainians were terrified of the Russian Air Force. There was a lot of pressure to "close the skies" and a lot of debate about how NATO trying to run a no-fly zone / SEAD mission could easily escalate into war. But we have not heard much recently on this front. The Russian Air Force are absent. My question is, why? What turned the tide?

I know the Ukrainians managed to disperse their fighter jets and miraculously are still flying six months later using highways to take off. So that is one threat. And there is the MANPAD threat and those MANPADs are all over Ukraine now. We have the British Starstreak system went in. And we saw in July that the US announced some NASAMS systems (National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System) that went in.

 

But is that it? If you guys have time I would be interested in your take on what exactly turned the tide in the air war here. Apologies if this topic was previously addressed in some of the posts on here (it is a challenge to read it all).

 

Anyway thanks again for all the hours you put in making sense of this conflict to the extent that you can in the midst of the fog of war.

 

Slava Ukraini!