How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Grigb said:

RU Nats are discussing another aspect of the disaster - political cost of abandoning these territories. Basically RU lost trust of locals who decided to collaborate. So from now on it will be extremely difficult to setup an occupation administration for any captured territory.

That's a good point.  The further west they advanced the less enthusiasm they found for collaboration.  These areas being liberated inherently have a larger pool to draw from.  However, judging by all the cars headed to Russia and Luhansk, the word is getting out that pro-Russians might want to think about becoming actual Russian citizens.  If Russia lets them into the country, that is. Seems there's some reluctance to open up the doors.

Steve

[chuckdyke]

A gift from God an Anti-Tank Tree.

 

[chrisl]

28 minutes ago, Cederic said:

Ukraine have a serious logistics problem.

Add in Kherson and they could be trying to deal with 20k wounded hungry demoralised and badly educated young men needing shelter and assessment for involvement in war crimes.

Burning Man just ended - they could probably hire a bunch of burners to set up a small city to house, feed, and contain them.

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Kinophile said:

I don't know about leaving LDPR alone. I know they supposedly have the home advantage, but do they really?  After all the populace has been through, facing winter with water delivered in barrels, is the Regime really on that strong ground?

After the forceful mobilizations and cruelly stupid attacks do they have anything more than a few veteran units and a large mass of unmotivated, badly treated and equipped conscripts? 

Plus, the current positioning,  orientation and posture of the LDPR forces makes them operationally vulnerable.  Leave them for later and UA could give them a critical breathing spacing, making them a harder nut to crack than now. 

First, we have to acknowledge that ANY place that Ukraine liberates is beneficial to Ukraine and detrimental to Russia.  Therefore, the emphasis for future operations should be based on what is most impactful for the effort.  If Ukraine decides hooking into Luhansk from the north is viable, and the best option for them, I am all for it x2.  However...

I do expect LDPR to be difficult.  As tired and leery as the people there might be, they aren't looking to be liberated.  Metiopol, Tokmak, and other places in the south are.  That means once liberated Ukraine is going to have few, if any, headaches with the local populace.  I think saving a difficult and stressful occupation might be better put off until the people there feel thoroughly abandoned and even betrayed by Russia.

Militarily, I can see it being easier to take back the south (once Kherson is settled) than the Donbas.  Taking back the south gives Ukraine the ability to put pressure on the southern flank while the Kharkiv operation puts pressure on the northern flank.  That plus a push in the center to reverse recent gains in Luhansk would be a lot of pressure for them to absorb.  Especially if Russia is out of the game by then.

Steve

[Letter from Prague]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

That's a good point.  The further west they advanced the less enthusiasm they found for collaboration.  These areas being liberated inherently have a larger pool to draw from.  However, judging by all the cars headed to Russia and Luhansk, the word is getting out that pro-Russians might want to think about becoming actual Russian citizens.  If Russia lets them into the country, that is. Seems there's some reluctance to open up the doors.

Steve

Yes, there are reports Russians are in fact not letting the people in.

Now if Ukraine really wanted to "do a funni" as they say nowadays, they could do some convincing of the border guards (with SOF or HIMARS) so that all these people can just let themselves in to Russia. 

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, Letter from Prague said:

Yes, there are reports Russians are in fact not letting the people in.

Now if Ukraine really wanted to "do a funni" as they say nowadays, they could do some convincing of the border guards (with SOF or HIMARS) so that all these people can just let themselves in to Russia. 

Blow up the border check points?  Oh, that would be funny!  Well, except that there's a lot of civilians camped out there and that doesn't sound nice at all.

I hope the RU Nats associated with DLPR are seeing the benevolence of their glorious nation.

Steve

[danfrodo]

Huba post said Putin shoving 1300 kadyrovities into Kherson.  They'll not be happy to have to fight, let alone be captured.  Maybe this is why Kadyrov stepped aside, because Putin was pressuring him to actually get into combat.

So how incredibly stupid can Putin get?  These troops should be used to shore up the disaster, not sent into a doomed kessel.  Can't wait to see these clowns kneeling on the ground w their hands taped behind their backs.  'course, I suppose they will try to swim before it comes to that.

[FancyCat]

Decent chance some of those leaving are Russians, civilian and military who came to occupied Ukraine. With how many Russian troops are using civilian vehicles, there is probably good chance some of them are soldiers, which once they get back to Russian territory, can actually somewhat quit the military, vs being stuck in Ukraine and refused the ability to quit. 

Shutting down the border to check for them might be a good idea therefore. 

 

[Calamine Waffles]

51 minutes ago, pintere said:

First, yes about the news headlines. That’s a bit of a headscratcher.
 

But I think you’ve forgotten all the magic that Israel pulled in the 6-Day and Yom Kippur war. Ukrainian‘s offensive is definitely up there in terms of impressiveness, but even that doesn’t quite surpass what the Israelis were able to pull in their wars.

No. It surpasses the Israelis. The Israelis were able to enjoy air dominance in 1967 and air superiority in the latter stages of 1973. The IDF was also much better equipped.

[Huba]

8 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

No. It surpasses the Israelis. The Israelis were able to enjoy air dominance in 1967 and air superiority in the latter stages of 1973. The IDF was also much better equipped.

Sheer intensity of 1973 was bigger, there were literally thousands of AFVs duking it out in the open. The results were also more decisive compared to what we see now, Israel literally encircled most of the Egyptian army and won the whole war. That didn't happen here. And for dramatic effect what exactly can be compared to crossing the Suez Canal (by both sides!) or the Valley of Tears?.

Edited September 10, 2022 by Huba

[Calamine Waffles]

Intensity was greater, but the IDF in 1967/73 was a vastly better equipped and trained force than the ZSU is in 2022. It's really not a good comparison.

[G.I. Joe]

14 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

No. It surpasses the Israelis. The Israelis were able to enjoy air dominance in 1967 and air superiority in the latter stages of 1973. The IDF was also much better equipped.

True. On the other hand, their geography didn't allow for the kind of defense in depth and ability to fall back in good order Ukraine has had to work with.

In terms of the air war, I think Iran in the Iran-Iraq War is probably a better comparison (although they also had a qualitative edge on their opponents' equipment and were much closer to numerical parity).

Edited September 11, 2022 by G.I. Joe

[Calamine Waffles]

1 minute ago, G.I. Joe said:

True. On the other hand, their geography didn't allow for the kind of defense in depth and ability to fall back in good order Ukraine has had to work with.

In terms of the air war, I think Iran in the Iran-Iraq War is probably a closer comparison (although they also had a qualitative edge on their opponents' equipment).

This is correct, but the Ukrainian defensive terrain is much less favourable as well compared to the Golan Heights etc., so that was the only option available.

I don't think it's a really good comparison. The IRIAF consistently outperformed the IrAF and was able to achieve air superiority over the Iraqis for most of the war until 1987/88. The PSU has mostly just been operating in an air denial mode.

[Huba]

3 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

Intensity was greater, but the IDF in 1967/73 was a vastly better equipped and trained force than the ZSU is in 2022. It's really not a good comparison.

Trained yes, but ZSU is too, or at leas much more competently led, as were Israelis. Regarding equipment, both sides were quite evenly matched in AFVs, (T-62 vs M60 at the top, and lot of WW2 stuff  at the bottom of the scale. And Egypt/ Syria enjoyed numerical superiority too.

[chuckdyke]

How it happened. On a lighter note if Russia invades China it would give a new meaning of the Chinese Take Away. Salute the rank not the man. At least the Russian Private receives better treatment.

Captured Lieutenant General. 

 

Edited September 11, 2022 by chuckdyke

[G.I. Joe]

10 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

This is correct, but the Ukrainian defensive terrain is much less favourable as well compared to the Golan Heights etc., so that was the only option available.

I don't think it's a really good comparison. The IRIAF consistently outperformed the IrAF and was able to achieve air superiority over the Iraqis for most of the war until 1987/88. The PSU has mostly just been operating in an air denial mode.

Agreed, it's definitely not a particularly good comparison but I'm at a loss for a better one off the top of my head. The Vietnam People's Air Force also doesn't work well because the VPAF were in almost the opposite situation for replacement aircraft...Operation Bolo would have pretty much finished them if they had been in Ukraine's position. The main reason I keep coming back to the IRIAF comparison is the master class in force conservation of staying in the fight with few or no replacement aircraft.

"A weird mashup of the VPAF in the Vietnam War and the IRIAF in Iran-Iraq War" is the best I can do for a historical comparison to the PSU in 2022...

Edited September 11, 2022 by G.I. Joe

[Calamine Waffles]

6 minutes ago, Huba said:

Trained yes, but ZSU is too, or at leas much more competently led, as were Israelis. Regarding equipment, both sides were quite evenly matched in AFVs, (T-62 vs M60 at the top, and lot of WW2 stuff  at the bottom of the scale. And Egypt/ Syria enjoyed numerical superiority too.

You're underestimating the degree to which the IDF had been built up by the French, the UK, and the US between 1956 and 1967. On the ground both sides were roughly at technological parity, with the Arabs being inferior in the air.

Then you look at the Ukrainians, who are basically using mostly Cold War era Soviet T-64BV and T-72 tanks against in general more modern Russian T-90s/T-80s/T-72B3s. The vast majority of the Ukrainian tanks don't even have thermal optics, which is standard on the T-72B3 (and alone already outnumbers the modernised T-64BV 2017s some two to three-fold).

Their air force still uses vintage late 80s/early 90s MiG-29s and Su-34s against Russian Su-35s. They don't even have active radar-homing AAMs. They are also outnumbered too. No, they were operating at VPAF vs. USAF levels of technological disparity.

  

2 minutes ago, G.I. Joe said:

Agreed, it's definitely not a particularly good comparison but I'm at a loss for a better one off the top of my head (the Vietnam People's Air Force also doesn't work well because the VPAF were in almost the opposite situation for replacement aircraft... Operation Bolo would have pretty much finished them if they had been in Ukraine's position). The main reason I keep coming back to the IRIAF comparison is the master class in force conservation of staying in the fight with few or no replacement aircraft.

"A weird mashup of the VPAF in the Vietnam War and the IRIAF in Iran-Iraq War" is the best I can do for a historical comparison to the Ukrainian Air Force in 2022...

There's no real good modern comparison.

Edited September 11, 2022 by Calamine Waffles

[Vanir Ausf B]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

Probably busy attempting to resupply the Kherson defenders. 

Congrats to Germany, looks like the Gepards proved their usefulness!

 

I'd love to learn more about what the Gepards are doing. Because prior to this article the last we heard was that the ammunition painstakingly sourced from Norway didn't work.

[G.I. Joe]

7 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

There's no real good modern comparison.

Definitely. It will be an interesting air war to study in hindsight once the fog of war has lifted somewhat.

[pintere]

40 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

No. It surpasses the Israelis. The Israelis were able to enjoy air dominance in 1967 and air superiority in the latter stages of 1973. The IDF was also much better equipped.

I dunno. In Sinai 1973 the Israelis were caught totally by surprise, outnumbered, and up against an enemy that had spent 6 years preparing to counter Israeli tanks and aircraft. Despite all that they managed to blunt the Egyptian attack, regain the initiative, advance to AND cross the Suez before cutting off a whole Egyptian field army. By the time the truce was called they were within striking distance of the capital and had that same Egyptian army at their mercy. All this happened in less than 3 weeks.
 

Make no mistake, Ukraine is doing fantastic, but they still have not yet achieved a feat quite as dramatic as that (keyword "yet").

[Calamine Waffles]

 

5 minutes ago, G.I. Joe said:

The main reason I keep coming back to the IRIAF comparison is the master class in force conservation of staying in the fight with few or no replacement aircraft.

It's admittedly a bit easier to do force conservation when you can destroy your opponent's aircraft without them ever realising you are there.

[CAZmaj]

10 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Girkin is just new "юродивый" %) In times of turmoils in such type of people other want to see "voice of God" )))

 "юродивый"  =  "holy fool"

(chiefly Eastern Orthodoxy) A person, often associated with gifts of prophecy and insight, who publicly acts as if mad or stupid, but whose madness is seen as concealing an inner sanctity for the purpose of self-humiliation. 

[Beleg85]

34 minutes ago, Huba said:

Sheer intensity of 1973 was bigger, there were literally thousands of AFVs duking it out in the open. The results were also more decisive compared to what we see now, Israel literally encircled most of the Egyptian army and won the whole war. That didn't happen here. And for dramatic effect what exactly can be compared to crossing the Suez Canal (by both sides!) or the Valley of Tears?.

We are still in the middle of events, hard to tell if this is not even just first phase. If, in hiper optimistic scenario, this indeed will be a straw that break camel's neck- we can compare it to 1973 and even beyond. Retroactively changing significance of events is massive problem in historiography; let's remember that notning special happenned in AD 476 according to contemporaries.

But that is very different historical discussion.

[chrisl]

 

19 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

I'd love to learn more about what the Gepards are doing. Because prior to this article the last we heard was that the ammunition painstakingly sourced from Norway didn't work.

Might have been a trap...

[Calamine Waffles]

1 minute ago, pintere said:

I dunno. In Sinai 1973 the Israelis were caught totally by surprise, outnumbered, and up against an enemy that had spent 6 years preparing to counter Israeli tanks and aircraft. Despite all that they managed to blunt the Egyptian attack, regain the initiative, advance to AND cross the Suez before cutting off a whole Egyptian field army. By the time the truce was called they were within striking distance of the capital and had that same Egyptian army at their mercy. All this happened in less than 3 weeks.
 

Make no mistake, Ukraine is doing fantastic, but they still have not yet achieved a feat quite as dramatic as that (keyword "yet").

I mean it's not a good comparison because the IDF and Heyl Ha'avir were much better trained and equipped forces, to levels that the ZSU could have only dreamed of in February 2022. The Egyptian offensive also faltered because their hand was forced by Assad's failure in the Golan Heights, which forced them to attack in an unprepared beyond their main objectives. The Israelis also benefited immensely from the US strategic airlift of material during Operation Nickel Grass (including tanks and other heavy weapons in numbers Ukraine wishes they had).

Remember, the Ukrainians have been operating at both a technological and numerical disadvantage throughout this war. They were also not on a fully mobilised footing on February 24. The Israelis "only" really had the problem of being outnumbered and caught by surprise.