How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[FancyCat]

I wonder how the actual DPR and LPR civilians and military personnel feel at this point. One thing to be Russian and fleeing, another thing entirely when your family lives in and your home is in occupied Ukraine. I hope that steps will be taken to ensure those who fight will be able to lay down their arms as Russia has and will try to emphasize that giving up will mean their deaths and the deaths of their loved ones. 

I hope Ukraine is not too harsh on those who were conscripted. 

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, Letter from Prague said:

Just needs to get that floating thingie to be a proper baron Harkonnen. Also a Vladimir, interesting coincidence.

Hey, stop this, this thread belong fully to Tolkien nerds!

 

Ok, so can we try to assess scale of Ukrainian success now on 11 PM here in Europe, with some buckets of cold water. We have massive happy hours and probably a lot of rumours/ Ukrainian PsyOps, so let's try to stay sober (for a moment)

1.Frontline will probably stabilize on Oskil...or not? Russians are trying to form something resembling defence in the east of the river but have giant problems. Ukrainians are probably very tired and we have only speculations on second wave joining.

2. I read some magical numbers regarding captured POW's and vehicles...like 450+ tanks,7000 POW's and similar. Very unreliable. We don't know how many Russians managed to escape or if kessel is formed (probably not, because of fluid nature of frontlines). Certainly gains at Izyum are truly massive, but we don't know numbers just yet so scale may be little lower than expected (my guess, happy to be proven otherwise).

3. Capture of Yampil is not confirmed, state of Lyman is disputable. Vovchansk and Vielyky Burluk under shelling but probably still not captured; since they are close to Russia they may be reinforced in time (let's hope not).

4. Donbas lines are roughly stable as well, with Russians traditionally pushing towards Bakmut like drunk rhinocero.

5. Oil rafinery areas near Lysychansk is probably contested; something is happening in this axis but still we don't know what.

6. As of now, Donetsk airport, Severdonetsk, big breach in Kherson etc. seem like rumours.

7. Putin is well, Moscow just have celebrations. Nothing suggesting change of power for now.

8. Situation is very dynamic....5 days in and Russians barely try to counterattack. Their "maneuver to regroup in republics" may even be true from RUGenStaff point view...but it somehow mifired. Reality knocks the door.

9. Russian nationalists have butthurt of the century, one can feel their pain and tears throuht the screen.

10. Ukrainain morale sky high, at least in the north. If not death of queen Elizabeth headlines would be full of info about Ukraine for 24/h. Apparently international attention span is not short when for hours describing such vital issues as names of Royal corgies or tapestry of new King's seat while barely mentioning that Ukrainians just gave us most brilliant example of massive manouvre world have seen from WWII (ok, Desert Strom not counts).

 

Now, throw knived at me but I would call to curb our enthusiasm now. It is glorious day indeed, but there are so many rumours and fake stories that we easily can fall into high expectations trap.

 

Edited September 10, 2022 by Beleg85

[FancyCat]

How lovely for Russia to make sure Ukraine can advance with SPG supporting fire as easily as possible. Well, its pretty much settled, unless Russia can somehow stalemate this conflict for a year or so, Ukraine will likely seek and get the restoration of all its territory occupied by Russia including Crimea. 

On that note, I know crossing into Crimea is hard, i still think with the state of the Russian military being what it is, that Ukraine can achieve it militarily in the event Putin stubbornly refuses to see that it's over. 

 

 

 

[Huba]

12 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Hey, stop this, this thread belong fully to Tolkien nerds!

 

Ok, so can we try to assess scale of Ukrainian success now on 11 PM here in Europe, with some buckets of cold water. We have massive happy hours and probably a lot of rumours/ Ukrainian PsyOps, so let's try to stay sober (for a moment)

1.Frontline will probably stabilize on Oskil...or not? Russians are trying to form something resembling defence in the east of the river but have giant problems. Ukrainians are probably very tired and we have only speculations on second wave joining.

2. I read some magical numbers regarding captured POW's and vehicles...like 450+ tanks,7000 POW's and similar. Very unreliable. We don't know how many Russians managed to escape or if kessel is formed (probably not, because of fluid nature of frontlines). Certainly gains at Izyum are truly massive, but we don't know numbers just yet so scale may be little lower than expected (my guess, happy to be proven otherwise).

3. Capture of Yampil is not confirmed, state of Lyman is disputable. Vovchansk and Vielyky Burluk under shelling but probably still not captured; since they are close to Russia they may be reinforced in time (let's hope not).

4. Donbas lines are roughly stable as well, with Russians traditionally pushing towards Bakmut like drunk rhinocero.

5. Oil rafinery areas near Lysychansk is probably contested; something is happening in this axis but still we don't know what.

6. As of now, Donetsk airport, Severdonetsk, big breach in Kherson etc. seem like rumours.

7. Putin is well, Moscow just have celebrations. Nothing suggesting change of power for now.

8. Situation is very dynamic....5 days in and Russians barely try to counterattack. Their "maneuver to regroup in republics" may even be true from RUGenStaff point view...but it somehow mifired. Reality knocks the door.

9. Russian nationalists have butthurt of the century, one can feel their pain and tears throuht the screen.

10. Ukrainain morale sky high, at least in the north. If not death of queen Elizabeth headlines would be full of info about Ukraine for 24/h. Apparently international attention span is not short when for hours describing such vital issues as names of Royal corgies or tapestry of new King's seat while barely mentioning that Ukrainians just gave us most brilliant example of massive manouvre world have seen from WWII (ok, Desert Strom also counts).

 

Now, throw knived at me but I would call to curb our enthusiasm now. It is glorious day indeed, but there are so many rumours and fake stories that we easily can fall into high expectations trap.

 

I think you pretty much hit the nail in the head. What we know that certainly happened is absolutely massive, and it isn't all for sure. But whole RU army didn't collapse yet and what will happen next is not clear (apart from a general direction of RU getting a lot more whoop-ass ).

Edited September 10, 2022 by Huba

[Kinophile]

Ehhhh...lads, the fight's the other way...

Quote

"The Russian Defense Ministry said that they had transferred troops from Balakleya and Izyum in the Kharkiv region to the Donetsk direction, allegedly to achieve the goals of a "special operation", and also carried out a number of distraction and demonstration activities."

That's today.

If this is true, and they've actually sent orders to that effect and are not just BSing to cover the near-rout that's developing, then holy moly are they out of touch.

And by they I mean probably Putler.

[danfrodo]

9 minutes ago, Huba said:

I think you pretty much hit the nail in the head. What we know that certainly happened is absolutely massive, and it isn't all for sure. But whole RU army didn't collapse yet and what will happen next is not clear (apart from a general direction of RU getting a lot more whoop-ass ).

whoop-ass?  Dang, Polish dude's got some proper american talkin' right there.  Next thing ya know he'll be watching american football and eatin' chicken wings.  (I remember back in the day back in dayton when wings were poor people food, now so popular are expensive)

Just to pile on w what was said above by Beleg, but w some positive spin:

1.  Unless further collapse the Kharkiv-Izyum lines will probably solidify soon, but the question is where.  The river is the obvious line.  Capturing at least 3000km of territory and removing a big bunch of RU soldiers and gear is just fine.

2.  Gifts that keep on giving -- removing Kupyansk greatly complicates RU supply; plus massive loss of supplies in retreat.  All of this greatly weakens whatever is left on this front.

3.  Kherson is doomed, so another, even bigger military disaster is going to happen and I think it will be sooner rather than later as UKR pressure mounts.

4.  Best way forward is for RU political collapse, which could mean withdrawal of RU forces everywhere.  We see 'tea leaves' but no tea yet. 

5. 4-6 weeks of good weather ahead, hopefully.  A LOT can be done in that time by UKR, but what can RU do in that time?  10-15% of it's troops are out of the war (I am counting Kherson, because they are basically a doomed garrison).

 

 

[Grigb]

5 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Ehhhh...lads, the fight's the other way...

That's today.

If this is true, and they've actually sent orders to that effect and are not just BSing to cover the near-rout that's developing, then holy moly are they out of touch.

And by they I mean probably Putler.

The statement is true but pretty much everybody among RU agrees that is BS cover to avoid admitting defeat publicly.

[Grigb]

Just in case it was not posted here - according to Rybar at the north UKR advanced toward line Khotimlya - Velykyi Burluk.

But this is what RU think that is usually at least half of day behind.

[FancyCat]

Astounding if not some digital creation and PR making, but real or not, pretty astounding anyway. Congrats to all Ukrainians, this victory must be unparalleled so far.  

 

 

[Huba]

3 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

whoop-ass?  Dang, Polish dude's got some proper american talkin' right there.  Next thing ya know he'll be watching american football and eatin' chicken wings.  (I remember back in the day back in dayton when wings were poor people food, now so popular are expensive)

I used to watch The Wire religiously, you pick up some vocabulary. Just have to remember not to use it in corporate environment

Just now, Grigb said:

Just in case it was not posted here - according to Rybar at the north UKR advanced toward line Khotimlya - Velykyi Burluk.

And here's the map:

And some interesting news. I bet UA soldiers will be even more motivated when fighting against these bastards:

 

[sburke]

8 minutes ago, Huba said:

I used to watch The Wire religiously, you pick up some vocabulary. Just have to remember not to use it in corporate environment

And here's the map:

And some interesting news. I bet UA soldiers will be even more motivated when fighting against these bastards:

 

The Wire - one of the best television series ever! IMHO

As to Kadyrovs  they are there because reportedly the traffic lights conspired to get the 20th MRD out of position.  The Kadyrovs will combat and defeat these traffic light traitors!

[akd]

13 minutes ago, Huba said:

And some interesting news. I bet UA soldiers will be even more motivated when fighting against these bastards:

 

Presumably this is the previously-mentioned 78th Motor Rifle Regiment raised for the 42nd Guards MRD.

[FancyCat]

Good to be conservative in the UKR advance, but if truly ZSU liberate Lysychansk, Severodonetsk, I mean its one thing for the Izyum front to be stripped of units, but for the Siversk facing units to be so degraded, I mean Bakhmut facing units, once they hear of Ukraine retaking Lys-Sev, I mean, how is Russia gonna restabilize their front when they have thousands of their forces trapped in Kherson, and a good majority in the left bank of the Dnipro that need to transit back into Crimea to get to Rostov to get into Ukraine from the East, and the remaining good units already deployed in Bakhmut? 

 

 

Edited September 10, 2022 by FancyCat

[Beleg85]

22 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Good to be conservative in the UKR advance, but if truly ZSU liberate Lysychansk, Severodonetsk, I mean its one thing for the Izyum front to be stripped of units, but for the Siversk facing units to be so degraded, I mean Bakhmut facing units, once they hear of Ukraine retaking Lys-Sev, I mean, how is Russia gonna restabilize their front when they have thousands of their forces trapped in Kherson, a good majority that need to transit back into Crimea to get to Rostov to get into Ukraine from the East, and the remaining good units already deployed in Bakhmut? 

The problem is it is still if. We don't know now what is rumour, what early signs of real battles and what Ukrainian psyoperation to undermine enemy morale (and we can be sure such thing is going on). Haidai may be trying to cause panick in for example civilian population loyal to Russia in order to cause traffic jams. But this mood will not stay forever; even Russian nats will probably soon rationalize their defeat again.

Also note we don't know when Russians started moving their reserves and where they are. I still don't get why we don't hear of fleets of transport helis we know Russia possess, but hey, they are Muscowites...

Of course I don't want to be the guy who spoils the party, but just saying we should be on guard folks. This is battle of Helm's Deep rather than Battle of Black Gate.

 

ED: Oh, actually good example: I wanted to post this video of captured RU SPG's fro Izyum that actually happen to be tank warhouse in Crimea. A lot of such fakes in the net now.

Edited September 10, 2022 by Beleg85

[FancyCat]

1 minute ago, Beleg85 said:

 

 

Video is from Crimea. 

One fear, if Ukraine starts winning, the West may seek to let Russia off the hook with retaining territory, Germany's Greens issue a statement that makes it clear the liberation of occupied Ukraine is in Germany's interests (at least for the Greens). 

 

 

[Beleg85]

1 minute ago, FancyCat said:

Video is from Crimea. 

Yep, just corrected the post. But good example of how we should be aware.

[Cederic]

5 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

news from Moscow starting to cross the level to be believable:

 

It's apparently Moscow City Day, hence the fireworks posted later in the thread.

[pintere]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

10. Ukrainain morale sky high, at least in the north. If not death of queen Elizabeth headlines would be full of info about Ukraine for 24/h. Apparently international attention span is not short when for hours describing such vital issues as names of Royal corgies or tapestry of new King's seat while barely mentioning that Ukrainians just gave us most brilliant example of massive manouvre world have seen from WWII (ok, Desert Strom not counts).

First, yes about the news headlines. That’s a bit of a headscratcher.
 

But I think you’ve forgotten all the magic that Israel pulled in the 6-Day and Yom Kippur war. Ukrainian‘s offensive is definitely up there in terms of impressiveness, but even that doesn’t quite surpass what the Israelis were able to pull in their wars.

[FancyCat]

8 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Also note we don't know when Russians started moving their reserves and where they are. I still don't get why we don't hear of fleets of transport helis we know Russia possess, but hey, they are Muscowites...

Probably busy attempting to resupply the Kherson defenders. 

Congrats to Germany, looks like the Gepards proved their usefulness! 

 

 

[Cederic]

Ukraine have a serious logistics problem.

Add in Kherson and they could be trying to deal with 20k wounded hungry demoralised and badly educated young men needing shelter and assessment for involvement in war crimes.

[Letter from Prague]

5 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Of course I don't want to be the guy who spoils the party, but just saying we should be on guard folks. This is battle of Helm's Deep rather than Battle of Black Gate.

I think that depends on how broken the orcs end up after this. The losses might be big enough (not just from the current push but from the months of degradation by deep strikes) that they will never be able to effectively regroup and resist.

1 minute ago, FancyCat said:

One fear, if Ukraine starts winning, the West may seek to let Russia off the hook with retaining territory, Germany's Greens issue a statement that makes it clear the liberation of occupied Ukraine is in Germany's interests (at least for the Greens). 

Yeah, if I was Ukraine I would try to freeze Donbas and fight in Crimea than the other way around - the risk of Russia asking to keep it for reopening gas valves and the West stopping support and pressuring Ukraine might be too high.

(But I'm from a country that got Muniched before, maybe I'm too paranoid.)

[Cederic]

In all this excitement we've forgotten the Russians are making progress in Pisky. They are still in Pisky, aren't they? Aren't they?

Still, Russian forces collapsing gets boring after a while.

 

Not that Russians believe they're being trounced. They listen to and trust their great leader, who's putting some spin on the day's events.

Ah. Oops.

 

Russian morale does remain high though, as military leaders and the civil heads in Donbas have all been seen mocking Zelenskyy, as they clearly have enough ammunition and opted for the ride instead.

But all joking aside, could we all take a moment to grieve for the true victim of the last four days. Who couldn't pity poor Oryx right now.

As if events in Ukraine weren't enough already, I fear this is going to break him:

 

[Beleg85]

6 minutes ago, pintere said:

But I think you’ve forgotten all the magic that Israel pulled in the 6-Day and Yom Kippur war. Ukrainian‘s offensive is definitely up there in terms of impressiveness, but even that doesn’t quite surpass what the Israelis were able to pull in their wars.

Good point, I knew I forget something. Well, let's say barely anybody below 70 years old rember such thing. (Iraq 1991 and 2003 were epic, but let's be fair allies have all advantages).

5 minutes ago, Cederic said:

Ukraine have a serious logistics problem.

This one call actually sounds rather fake.

Edited September 10, 2022 by Beleg85

[Calamine Waffles]

Armour has no role to play, they said...
 

 

[FancyCat]

New Jomini!!