How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Stand up now, Novgorod, Volkhov and 'Hansagrad' (ex Kaliningrad) Republic!

Not to get too far over my snowshoes, but imagine postwar, a fourth 'Baltic state', Russian-speaking but westward looking and NATO-aligned (Pskov homes a VDV division), filled with tech factories, draining youth and talent away from crumbling, stagnant Moscow.

If Belarusians can do it (they can), so can these people.

Oh, I'm convinced there will be a 4th Baltic state.  I also think they will clean up their act quicker than most simply because they are surrounded by positive examples.

I don't know what the direct person to person relationship is between the people of Kailningrad and the surrounding countries is, does anybody here have a sense?

Steve

[JonS]

Kaliningrad as an independent nation is a bit of a non-starter, I think. The total popn is maybe 500k, and that is overwhelmingly Russian. Like, more than 70% Russian. Luxembourg is both more populous and more diverse. Luxembourg!

It's not big enough to sustain itself, and I doubt the population would want to anyway.

Edited September 9, 2022 by JonS

[LongLeftFlank]

14 minutes ago, JonS said:

Kaliningrad as an independent nation is a bit of a non-starter, I think. The total popn is maybe 500k, and that is overwhelmingly Russian. Like, more than 70% Russian.

It's not big enough to sustain itself, and I doubt the population would want to anyway.

Didn't say it could go its own way, and yes, it wouldn't be easy. It's an artificial creation of the USSR and a garrison town (with some energy infra). But it might federate with this new Russian-speaking republic. Elsewise, it just rusts away, like Transnistria, living off dwindling subsidies.

A lot of cards go wild if and when the Special Operation collapses. It's in no way limited to Putin et al. swinging from a lampost and Navalny being installed as 'good Tsar' with Western backing because otherwise ultranats run wild.  As many have said here, there's no such beast as a Good Tsar ruling in Moscow as imperial Russia is structured today. No matter how good his hair, or how well he shmoozes with Macron and Bono.

Edited September 9, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Offshoot]

6 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Btw. seriously what the of name of this operation is is curious. It may be known and studied for many years to come, especially if they really manage to capture/sorround Kupyanks. I would vote for something like "Chervona Kalina"; or maybe less ethnic, like 'Thunder"".

I hope they have an Operation Washing Machine. Followed by Operation Flush.

[FancyCat]

37 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

Is this true?

 

I looked it up, the Smolninskoye council, is a little town council, that oversees 75k residents in St. Petersburg. Its not even a raion. It would be like if the Scranton, PA city council condemned Joe Biden, and called for him to be impeached, and is just as impactful as this call by the Smolninskoye council, which is not impactful whatsoever. 

shame, but its a nothingburger. 

[Battlefront.com]

24 minutes ago, JonS said:

Kaliningrad as an independent nation is a bit of a non-starter, I think. The total popn is maybe 500k, and that is overwhelmingly Russian. Like, more than 70% Russian.

It's not big enough to sustain itself, and I doubt the population would want to anyway.

That's a good point, but the alternatives don't look very viable either if Russia cracks up.  They are in an unsustainable place and always have been.  With economic restrictions on them it's even worse.  Yet I don't see any neighboring countries wanting to take them onboard.  That many Russians all concentrated in one place is bad news for neighboring governments to even think of taking on.

If Russia stays together as an administrative body, what level financial support can Kaliningrad expect from whatever is left after this war?  Not much for a long time.  What about if Russia goes into civil war, then what?  Worse.  Kaliningrad is important to Russia only as a thorn in the West's side.  If it is busy fighting its own for survival, I'm not sure how long range Russian leaders are going to be about keeping the place happy.

In an extreme scenario, St. Petersburg and Moscow go their own way.  Would Moscow have any ability, much less interest, in keeping them as a dependent?  Doubtful.  How about St. Petersburg?  This is much more likely, but whether it could afford to or not is a different story.

Honestly, I don't know what they would do.  Luxembourg is not even 700,000 and they seem to be doing OK as an independent country.  Liechtenstein is 1/15th the population and is independent.  Sooooo... it's possible Kaliningrad could make a go of it.

Steve

[JonS]

2 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

join with this new republic.

Join as a republic? With an isolated, landlocked, and enclaved former oblast, and another whose loss would leave Russia with zero unrestricted access to the Baltic. For the first time since 1700. Right-oh then.

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

I looked it up, the Smolninskoye council, is a little town council, that oversees 75k residents in St. Petersburg. Its not even a raion. It would be like if the Scranton, PA city council condemned Joe Biden, and called for him to be impeached, and is just as impactful as this call by the Smolninskoye council, which is not impactful whatsoever. 

shame, but its a nothingburger. 

It's a tea leaf, that's its importance.  When someone steps forward to voice an opinion, especially in an autocratic system, you can safely bet there's a lot of others who are trying to muster the courage to do the same.  If the others don't see ramifications for speaking out, well... that's why repressive regimes repress

If this local council is even seriously considering doing what is claimed, this means their concern for themselves is overcoming their fear of Putin.  I doubt it is isolated thinking.

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

Just now, JonS said:

Join as a republic? With an isolated, landlocked, and enclaved former oblast, and another whose loss would leave Russia with zero unrestricted access to the Baltic. For the first time since 1700. Right-oh then.

What exactly is Moscow going to do about it, invade?  Especially when a bunch of other oblasts are eyeing the exits as well.

Empires break up, mate.

Right oh then.

[JonS]

I'm keenly aware of that, living in part of a former empire.

I just cant see;

A) Russia letting access to the Baltic go, and

ii) geographically scattered oblasts with little to unify them, aside ffrom what they /used/ to be part of, clubbing together to create something viable.

Edited September 9, 2022 by JonS

[chuckdyke]

Don Vito Corleone," I'm going to make him an offer he can't refuse." This method always works especially with gangsters like putin.

[Battlefront.com]

16 minutes ago, JonS said:

A) Russia letting access to the Baltic go, and

As per my previous post... they might not have a choice.  My guess is Kaliningrad would not break away on its own, unless they got a better offer from another party (St. Petersburgistan, for example).  But Russia might not be able to keep up their end of the bargain, in which case Kaliningrad might be forced into a decision it also doesn't want to make.

It's like a restaurant going bust.  The owner and the manager might have a great relationship, they might like working together, but if the owner says to the manager "I'm cash strapped.  How about working for 1/2 pay, possibly for ever?"  Might the answer be something other than "sure, that sounds spiffy!".

16 minutes ago, JonS said:

ii) geographically scattered oblasts with little to unify them, aside ffrom what they /used/ to be part of, clubbing together to create something viable.

That's Russia as it exists today

Steve

[FancyCat]

7 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

It's a tea leaf, that's its importance.  When someone steps forward to voice an opinion, especially in an autocratic system, you can safely bet there's a lot of others who are trying to muster the courage to do the same.  If the others don't see ramifications for speaking out, well... that's why repressive regimes repress

If this local council is even seriously considering doing what is claimed, this means their concern for themselves is overcoming their fear of Putin.  I doubt it is isolated thinking.

Steve

Eh, Russia's descent into autocracy is not something existing for dozens of years, the repression only stepped up following the invasion, and again, this is like the President of the Brooklyn borough speaking up, only much more minor cause Brooklyn has way more people than this little council. I mean, recall all those protests, that died down or got repressed, yet their end output is the cities of Moscow and St. Petersburg look no closer to even those big protests restarting akin to the start of the war.

12 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

What exactly is Moscow going to do about it, invade?  Especially when a bunch of other oblasts are eyeing the exits as well.

Empires break up, mate.

Right oh then.

Something important to consider, local and regional elites will in any scenario, either the most extreme, or more minor unrest, will gain more power and independence, when looking at whether scenarios like becoming a new republic of the federation or independence or more decentralized authority, we must consider whether the elites will benefit. 

Kaliningrad, i don't see any reason for the local elites to move away from Moscow, main reason if nothing else, that the entire existence of the oblast is to serve as a warm water trade port and base for the Baltic Fleet. It's already been laid out that Kaliningrad has no way to get closer to the rest of Europe, and its main purpose is facilitating Russian-EU trade, and EU-Russian geopolitical maneuvering. 

What use does a newly independent Kaliningrad need with a navy (if it even sided with the new country), none, so right there, the economy takes a hit. What point does it serve for a port that facilitates the transfer of goods between the rest of Russia and Europe and the world to cut off one of its arms? None.

Sure, maybe the local elites ask Moscow for a greater share of the profits, but that is easily handled via enactment of the restoration of the Federation treaties with it added or some such and such but hardly a breakup scenario. 

As Kamil noted, and I do think hes makes good sense, the main reason for any sort of separatism or breakup is likely the elites having to deal smaller and smaller shares of the economic pie, and acting in their own self-interest. 

Yet, as we note, most of these potential states are poor subjects for setting out as a independent state, the least necessary consideration would be ocean or foreign land access, and the Northern Sea route where maybe one day a arctic state may use for ocean access requires still ice breaker escorts and specialized vessels. 

Something else to note, that I believe Kamil touched upon, the regional and local elites still cycle back to the metropoles. They are still mainly appointed and connected with them, despite overseeing territories far, far away from Moscow. What's the point in ruling over some useless land if you can no longer send your money and wealth to invest in the metropoles? 

[Battlefront.com]

21 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Eh, Russia's descent into autocracy is not something existing for dozens of years, the repression only stepped up following the invasion, and again, this is like the President of the Brooklyn borough speaking up, only much more minor cause Brooklyn has way more people than this little council. I mean, recall all those protests, that died down or got repressed, yet their end output is the cities of Moscow and St. Petersburg look no closer to even those big protests restarting akin to the start of the war.

You're again conflating meaningful sign of opposition with an immediate source of action.  One tends to be a precursor for the other.  It's also generally not analogous to what goes on in democracies because the fear of speaking up isn't (usually) a factor.  However, in democracies you can look deeper and see trends.  I can think of a few, but they are too politically charged and off topic.

Putin's crackdowns started in large part because of the St. Petersburg protests.  Putin has spent much of the last 11 years cracking down to make sure it doesn't happen again.  And yet, we have this report of someone thinking of stepping out of line from St. Petersburg.  It's something to pay attention to.

So, is this particular local government action meaningful in terms of tangible impact on Putin's regime.  Hell no.  But that doesn't mean it isn't significant in other ways.  I'll bet you 1,000,000 Rubles that there were similar things visible well ahead of the 2011 protests.  They likely didn't come out of thin air, did they?

The point is, generally tea leaves only show you what might be coming down the road.  Don't dismiss their value simply because it's not the tea itself.  It is good habit to read them, study them, debate them, and adjust over time so one isn't surprised by what happens later.  That's how I wasn't surprised that Russia was going to fight so poorly in a war it couldn't possibly win even before the first shot was fired.  Hell, I was better informed by tea leaves than experts who studied the Russian military full time for decades.  Says more about them than me, but the end result is the same.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

A little dated (as in from Wednesday!) article from Newsweek about the Russian accounting of the collapse of defenses in Kharkiv.  I think Grigb ghost wrote it

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-abandoning-positions-kharkiv-counteroffensive-ukraine-1741061

And another one from Newsweek about Kherson.  SBU intercept of Russian soldiers talking about how bad things are already.  Talks about the 165th Artillery Brigade, which I don't see noted in the area but that's not unusual for a rear unit to go under reported:

https://www.newsweek.com/russian-soldier-kherson-casualties-counteroffensive-ukraine-1740662

Steve

[danfrodo]

14 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

You're again conflating meaningful sign of opposition with an immediate source of action.  One tends to be a precursor for the other.  It's also generally not analogous to what goes on in democracies because the fear of speaking up isn't (usually) a factor.  However, in democracies you can look deeper and see trends.  I can think of a few, but they are too politically charged and off topic.

Putin's crackdowns started in large part because of the St. Petersburg protests.  Putin has spent much of the last 11 years cracking down to make sure it doesn't happen again.  And yet, we have this report of someone thinking of stepping out of line from St. Petersburg.  It's something to pay attention to.

So, is this particular local government action meaningful in terms of tangible impact on Putin's regime.  Hell no.  But that doesn't mean it isn't significant in other ways.  I'll bet you 1,000,000 Rubles that there were similar things visible well ahead of the 2011 protests.  They likely didn't come out of thin air, did they?

The point is, generally tea leaves only show you what might be coming down the road.  Don't dismiss their value simply because it's not the tea itself.  It is good habit to read them, study them, debate them, and adjust over time so one isn't surprised by what happens later.  That's how I wasn't surprised that Russia was going to fight so poorly in a war it couldn't possibly win even before the first shot was fired.  Hell, I was better informed by tea leaves than experts who studied the Russian military full time for decades.  Says more about them than me, but the end result is the same.

Steve

The fallout in Russia hasn't even started yet.  If Kherson falls w massive losses of men & equipment, followed by big losses in Izyum, it sets stage for next set of disasters as RU would have lost ~10 or 15% of it's effective fighting force.  Then there's even more holes in the line than  there were already.  RU starts shedding territory like crazy then. 

So what happens at home when the disasters become known?  And I think right now the vast majority of Russians have no idea how close things are to disaster, so it'll be quite a shock should disasters come to pass.

[kevinkin]

Not suggesting there  is is any one to one comparison, but as I read this thread and incoming reports, I can't stop thinking about past operations:

"Once again, as in his march on Atlanta, Sherman took a deceptive line between alternative objectives so that, time after time, his opponents could not concentrate their forces effectively to stop him.

Sherman’s flexible organization of his army contributed almost as much as his variability of direction to his continuous progress. Moving on a wide and irregular front—with four, five, or six columns, each covered by a cloud of foragers (today it's recon?) —if one was blocked, others would be pushing on. The opposing forces became so jumpy that they repeatedly gave way to the psychological pressure and fell back before they felt any serious physical pressure. The mere shout, “We’re Bill Sherman’s raiders (today's thunder run?), you’d better git,” sometimes sufficed to make opposing detachments retreat."

- Sir Liddell Hart in "Sherman - Modern Warrior (AMERICAN HERITAGE, August 1962 Volume 13 , Issue 5 August 1962)

The best of Hart's ideas have been incorporated into a broader concept of maneuver warfare that is used today. 

 

 

Edited September 9, 2022 by kevinkin

[Calamine Waffles]

[dan/california]

From ISW

Ukrainian military officials also noted that Ukrainian ballistic missiles and aviation struck two Russian ammunition depots, an unspecified command post, and key positions of a Russian platoon.

From me

Some platoon drew a VERY short straw...

[Calamine Waffles]

[Grigb]

Rybar claims yesterday URK began local advance at Kopanki

 

[Grigb]

And now RU is picking up news that UKR broke through to Senkove - Pegov reports UKR reached Senkov and bridge across Oskil river

Quote

urgent AFU approached Senkovo and the bridge over the reservoir ️

This is reported by the sources of the @wargonzo project in the Kharkiv region.

By the night of September 8-9, the enemy, moving from the direction of Volkhiv Yar, reached the village of Senkovo, and thus came close to the Oskil reservoir. The bridge over the reservoir is under enemy fire. We are waiting for confirmation of data from official sources.

 

[LongLeftFlank]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

As per my previous post... they might not have a choice.  My guess is Kaliningrad would not break away on its own, unless they got a better offer from another party (St. Petersburgistan, for example).  But Russia might not be able to keep up their end of the bargain, in which case Kaliningrad might be forced into a decision it also doesn't want to make.

It's like a restaurant going bust.  The owner and the manager might have a great relationship, they might like working together, but if the owner says to the manager "I'm cash strapped.  How about working for 1/2 pay, possibly for ever?"  Might the answer be something other than "sure, that sounds spiffy!".

That's Russia as it exists today

Steve

I think we're on the same page on this one, Steve, which is unusual.... 

There is of course no guarantee of any devolution succeeding, still less achieving independence.

1.  Moscow's monopoly on resource revenues (at least for as long as it can physically control the producing regions -- 'who has the power to destroy a thing, controls a thing' etc.) means that it has the treasure to buy local support, plus local thugs (carrot as well as stick).

But stick alone probably won't work for some time.... that stick is in the process of being broken across Ukraine's knee now.  And as noted, in places like Pskov, Moscow's siloviki could be facing some fairly badass veterans in sailor shirts.

2.  The big Western powers and agencies also have a default tendency to shore up Moscow, unless they have a reason not to (Putin), and not to reach out to regions. Mostly out of fear of loose nukes I suppose -- but also plain ignorance of conditions and who's whom.

....Also, at both central and local levels, there's invariably a need to cut *ahem* not-quite-ESG compliant deals with power players to bring them on board.  And it's easier to dress all that up respectably with a big ministry with a couple of English fluent ex-McKinsey MBAs than sitting down with Big Yuri in Luga (why yes! of course I will hire your brother in law's cement firm. Condolences for your son who died at Hostomel).

Allied occupation forces in Iraq and A'stan could finesse this kind of thing as a matter of course -- do you want the Sheikh's militia rebuilding houses or planting IEDs? -- and lose it in the mil.gov blob.  But it's bureaucratically a lot trickier in 'peacetime' and cross border, even for spook agencies.  Not impossible, just tricky, different skill sets.

Now if you're sending EU money to Latvia, which then disburses it via Big Yuri's Russo-Latvian cousins (2 for you, 1 for me....), well that's a bit simpler.  The Latvians know they're buying a buffer zone, and their authorities can turn a blind eye.

Anyhoo, y'all get the point.

Edited September 9, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Grigb]

Pegov complains the RU reserves that are being pulled to this direction are in fact units that left it several days ago. It seems UKR command precisely calculated moment to get RU with pants down.

Quote

There are many reports that reserves are being drawn to the Izum and Kupyansk (controlled by us). Of course, we are not inclined to divulge state secrets and we will not talk here about the movements of Russian military convoys and equipment. However, we cannot fail to note their somewhat absurd essence. It lies in the fact that those units that were just recently removed from their positions and transferred to others are now returning back - and this is literally a few days apart. That is, they have been traveling from one end of the front to the other for a long time, and now they are performing a mirror maneuver. No, of course we know the ancient army wisdom. "The war is bull****. The main thing is maneuvers." But in the case of Balakleya, the most unforgivable thing is the fate of people who trusted us [collaborators] . And peaceful, and military - ordinary Russian soldiers, by the way, too. And if we consider them, excuse the expression "bull****", then no maneuvers will help us win the war. This is our private opinion.

 

[Grigb]

And at today night RU defeated third UKR landing at Energodar (Nuke station).