How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

11 minutes ago, akd said:

Almost certainly not the same guy.

I hope you're wrong, but of course we don't know yet either way.

11 minutes ago, akd said:

Also, putting on a Lt. Col. uniform to avoid being captured as a Lt. Gen. would be a weird gambit.

It's just about rank "slides" on the epaulets.  Maybe LTC is all he could get a hold of on short notice. 

Another theory is that for OPSEC reasons he wore LTC when he was in the frontline area and got nabbed in that state.  He's not going to get and guff as a LTC, but if he takes his slides off completely (e.g. Private) he's asking for trouble from his own guys.  "I am a LT General of the Russian Federation, not a moblik!"  "Sure you are, grandpa, and I am Ivan the Terrible.  Now get to digging that ditch"

Either way, he got captured and either way they would figure out who he was.  Either he is a LTC as advertised or he is one of the biggest prizes of this offensive.  If he is a LTG we will know very, very soon I should think.

Steve

[Centurian52]

4 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

All good with the Ukraine Kharkiv offensive and all but what could success here mean strategically? Even in the best case?

Everyone can see the huge strategic impact of the Kherson area but how much would successes in Kharkiv front mean? Not as much I would dare to say. (but surely still very good indeed)

Even if they take the area I drew here would it really matter that much in the big picture? 

Well I'm just coming back to this thread after being unable to keep up with it for a couple months. But this looks like it could be pretty huge to me. Sure, if the Ukrainians just take back a bit of ground and then stop then this doesn't really mean much (I don't know that there is anything terribly valuable here (except for civilians who no longer have to live under Russian rule)). But presumably they will keep advancing until the Russians stop them (I haven't heard that they've stopped yet). And the Russians will need to pull troops from somewhere in order to stop them. That means weakening other parts of the front line, which will open them up to opportunistic Ukrainian attacks elsewhere, or at a minimum will mean abandoning any further offensive ambitions in the Donbass. So it's not so much the ground itself that has me excited, but what this will do to the rest of the Russian line. The Russians could stop this attack only to see the Ukrainians break through at whatever part of the line they decided to weaken. In the best case this could roll up the whole line. It's possible we are seeing the beginning of that collapse that was predicted a few months ago (although perhaps I'm getting too optimistic). Even if this doesn't snowball into a total Russian collapse, at a minimum it's a chunk of Ukrainian territory back in Ukrainian hands, and a clear sign that the Ukrainians are now strong enough (and/or the Russians are weak enough) that we can expect more such advances in the future.

[dan/california]

 

31 minutes ago, asurob said:

I wonder how far we are away from a complete collapse of Russian forces and just what that looks like. If I was Vlad I'd wonder where the hell is my Air Force and why they aren't stemming the tide here

It looks like a captured Lieutenant General, If I was Ukraine I would demand all of The Azov guys back for him. Anything less and he can rot in prison for any or all of his several thousand crimes.

[chrisl]

12 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 

It looks like a captured Lieutenant General, If I was Ukraine I would demand all of The Azov guys back for him. Anything less and he can rot in prison for any or all of his several thousand crimes.

Why would RU want him back?  He’s just going to throw himself out a window in despair of his failure.

[sburke]

41 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I hope you're wrong, but of course we don't know yet either way.

It's just about rank "slides" on the epaulets.  Maybe LTC is all he could get a hold of on short notice. 

 

Steve

we should tell him IF he's a Lt Gen he gets to be the first captured one on the list!  A special award!  See if that can entice him to admit it.  Though he may lie just to get the award.

[sburke]

Russian officials have dismissed indications that their six-month invasion is faltering. Mr. Putin said Wednesday: “We have not lost anything and will not lose anything.”

[Sojourner]

11 minutes ago, sburke said:

Russian officials have dismissed indications that their six-month invasion is faltering. Mr. Putin said Wednesday: “We have not lost anything and will not lose anything.”

Is that an admission that occupied Ukraine, and Crimea, are not Russian?

[chuckdyke]

He can say it with a straight face. It is a talent few people have.

[danfrodo]

46 minutes ago, sburke said:

Russian officials have dismissed indications that their six-month invasion is faltering. Mr. Putin said Wednesday: “We have not lost anything and will not lose anything.”

Gonna have some 'splaining to to do

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

Russian officials have dismissed indications that their six-month invasion is faltering. Mr. Putin said Wednesday: “We have not lost anything and will not lose anything.”

There is a point when this narrative starts to sound like they are trying to convince themselves.  “This isn’t happening, this can’t be happening!”

First stage is denial, then anger, bargaining, depression and finally, regime change.  It’s a process.

Edited September 9, 2022 by The_Capt

[Battlefront.com]

25 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Gonna have some 'splaining to to do

Yeah, that's the problem with building something on a foundation of lies.  Eventually the lies are no longer effective and the fanbase feels ripped off.  With people that have built cults of personality, such as Putin, some amount of support will never fade no matter what.  But it doesn't need to be everybody shifting opinion to bring about change.

Putin must sense he's running out room to lie.  He needs to score something fairly significant and soon.  He can't seriously think that going to the UN is going to help him at all, so I wonder what else he's planning.  Nuke plant again?  Not sure there's much left in that well.

Well, whatever Putin's options are I am sure our Ukrainian friends will figure out a way to undercut them.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Well now... no idea if this is verified yet, but so far reporting on high level deaths has been pretty good (not perfect, though):

 

[LongLeftFlank]

Nice short profile of Illia Ponomarenko.

https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/wielding-the-pen-fighting-on-the-twitter-front-in-ukraine-a-c2056bc2-24a1-4c36-9709-123d94d909fb

Putin's troops have destroyed Volnovakha, the town where he grew up, and the city of Mariupol, where he went to university.

 

[Battlefront.com]

Oh my! Ukraine is confident enough of its recent Kharkiv gains that it is moving something very valuable through it.  Hmmm... I wonder whatever do they plan on using this for?  I really couldn't guess.  I mean, really, really couldn't guess!  And yeah, that's sarcasm

 

An example of reading the fine print before trying something.  Supposedly BMP-1s and BMP2s are amphibious:

 

This unit apparently has no shortages of Javelins, but the Russians have a little less in Kherson:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/x9e3l0/the_28th_mb/

Steve

[sburke]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Well now... no idea if this is verified yet, but so far reporting on high level deaths has been pretty good (not perfect, though):

 

let me guess. he tried to swim the Dnipro with all his medals on.

[akd]

7 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Well now... no idea if this is verified yet, but so far reporting on high level deaths has been pretty good (not perfect, though):

 

Retired Major, died as a volunteer.

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, akd said:

Retired Major, died as a volunteer.

Dang.  Oh well.

OK, how about this guy?

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

We saw part of this video a couple of days ago.  It appears to be 5th Tank Battalion.  Someone smarter than me (AKD!) can likely give some ID's on the tanks.  I'm wondering if they got some of the Polish T-72s.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/x91eop/longer_high_quality_video_of_ukrainian_kherson/

The thing I notice here more than anything is the scale of this particular attack.  It looks to be the better part of a full company being used in a concentrated way.  Unlike Russian companies, I'd guess it's not understrength.

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

20 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Good thread here by French analyst on the dynamics of the 'grind it out' campaign in Kherson:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fb96FH0XwAIgdwX?format=png&name=900x900

 

 

 

...more scenario design source imagery here.

because we are no more in the 70's, it is absolutely useless to have such line of "defense" right now, with all direct intel, you should move every day of your position and change patterns of modification and ratio of véhicules & troops around etc. 

Because now... it's going to be a "ball trap" party! 

Ukr hide quite well the fact that they could suddenly unleash all that support on such "defensive" groups (or line of defense in trees) but all you got to have nowadays in order for an M777 (or equivalent) to strike half of this in couple hours is.some accurate GPS loc data and some M982 Excalibur artillery type of projectile. and actually ukr have their own production of such ammunition so for 70grand you can smoke a T-72 for example.

"Ball trap party". That's a keeper....

Edited September 9, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[sburke]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Dang.  Oh well.

OK, how about this guy?

Steve

already on the list.  Don't even try to compete with akd and Haiduk.  

 

I've been reorganizing the list to show a better perspective on where the losses are coming from - will post soon.

Edited September 9, 2022 by sburke

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, sburke said:

already on the list.  Don't even try to compete with akd and Haiduk.  

Hehe!  I thought his mug looked familiar.  OK, I'll go back to NOT posting those guys.

Steve

[chuckdyke]

Is this true?

 

[Battlefront.com]

Cool!  Translated video of the moblik mutiny:

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Geolocation images of the liberation video we saw earlier today.

The significance of this is that Ukraine can just drive straight through the center of a built up area without any fears.  Not just for themselves, but also for the local civilians.  This is not what a second or third line of defense should look like

This is just about 1/2 between the start point and Kupyansk and it was done in 2 days.

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

27 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

Is this true?

 

Stand up now, Novgorod, Volkhov and 'Hansagrad' (ex Kaliningrad) Republic!

Not to get too far over my snowshoes, but imagine postwar, a fourth 'Baltic state', Russian-speaking but westward looking and NATO-aligned (Pskov homes a VDV division*), filled with tech factories, draining youth and talent away from crumbling, stagnant Moscow.

If Belarusians can do it (they can), so can these people.

* Remember, the VDV and Naval Infantry formations are exceptions to the general rule that Putin has spared the 'Great Russians', using non-Slavs and separs as cannon fodder. They have been gutted, and for what? There are going to be a lot of VERY bitter veterans and families in garrison towns like Pskov, Ryazan and Novorossisyk after the defeat. 

....And in places like these forest regions and the Kuban, they won't necessarily flock to the NatFudge banner of Strelkov et al. Many will rediscover self-rule and like it.  Imperial vision has shot its bolt for the moment.

Edited September 9, 2022 by LongLeftFlank