How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Calamine Waffles]

26 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

The 128th mountain brigade from Transcarpatia region got destroyed, 50% casualties. They were the last unused professional troops in the Ukrainian army

https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/ukraine-war-4-september-2022-ukrainian-attacks-in-kherson-oblast-ed25239f3116

 

Quote

At Petrivka, the 128th lost one T-72M1 early on, followed by another. Then the Russians hit one of follow-up columns with artillery, knocking out 3 T-72M1/M1Rs, plus several trucks and a BRM-1K (this is from the well-known video) — after which the Keystone Cops in Moscow rushed to declare the 128th for at least ‘defeated’, if not ‘destroyed’…

In Ljubymivka, Ukrainians lost three T-72M1s and a BMP.

….in reaction to which, and rather logically, Ukrainians called in their 45th Artillery and this shelled Ljubymivka and Khreshchenivka: knocked out a BTR and a 2S5 in Ljubymivka.

Foremost, the 73rd Naval Infantry knocked out 3 BMDs and damaged 3 other vehicles in Khreshchenivka. This, probably, opened the way for the 60th and the 128th further east: they attacked the BTG 205th Motor Rifle Brigade in Zolota Balka and liberated the place. By 30th, they liberated Mykhalivka, further south, too (this was never officially announced, though, and thus the Militaryland is having the place still marked as ‘under the Russian control’).

Meanwhile, Ukrainians assaulted Ljubymivka from NW, N, and NE, took at least positions in its northern outskirts, capturing a BMP in the process.

As of yesterday, the GenStab-U reported ‘shelling near Khreshchenivka’ (another confirmation that Petrivka was liberated). The Foreign Legion is known to have entered Arhanhelske, but the place remains contested.

Foremost: this morning, the 60th Infantry finally — and ‘officially’ — liberated Vysokopillya, while the ‘destroyed’ 128th reported the capture of a Silok M1 radar (specialised in tracking UAVs, and jamming their control- and telemetry signals).

A clue in this place: such ‘stuff’ like Silok radar is never kept ‘in the first line of defence’. That means: the ‘destroyed’ 128th must’ve broken through and then driven ‘at least few kilometres deep’ behind the Russian front. No idea where, though.

 

[Beleg85]

2 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

Quincy Institute

That alone speaks volumes.

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

The video message Kadyrov is putting out, therefore, could boil down to "if you think you can frighten me, you're going to have to try a lot harder because I think you should be frightened of me".

Whatever is going on we can be assured that it is of major significance and Chechen tea leaves need to be examined with even greater interest from now on.

There are definitelly very interesting developments regarding Kadyrov. Just a side observation, but may be important. check this part:

18 hours ago, Grigb said:

I am already an old don, I was once the youngest
most inexperienced don
of them, now and [I] remained so inexperienced,
youth has gone, don somewhere, don don't know, don

Jumping over near-radioactive amounts of "dons" (often his way of handling the stress), note he says he is "inexprerienced"- the guy is 46 and practically rule for 15 years, half of it basically despotically. But traditionally in his society that values age so much, he is still rather too young to be true leader = being taken seriously. This is actually both strenght and limit of Kadyrov's power as long as can be remembered- he is young enough to appeal to younger, more cosmopolitan parts of Chechens (big pressures along age lines are particular to this society), and in case of troubles he can step away temporarly playing "poor, simple-minded village boy obedient to old customs". He narratively moved down and up this rope several times in the past.

Now we are in very murly field of interpreting Kadyrov videos, it's like listening to mumblings of completelly drunken Irish gnome and trying to rationally figure out where he hid his pot with gold. But this thing aside, I also think some serious rochades behind the courtain may be taking place in Russia. We don't know if it is local or may reach as far as Kremlin; too early to tell. I mean not Kadyrov's behaviour alone here is strange as he did similar dramatic pleas in the past, but timing of it.

Edited September 4, 2022 by Beleg85

[The_Capt]

39 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

The estimated force was 12,000 per Colonel MacGregor, “three brigades.”

Been tracking this guy since the beginning and he is a stain on our profession at this point.  According to him the entire UA was wiped out in Mar.  Of course how a "destroyed force" managed to force generate 3 fighting brigades able to go on an offensive in 3-4 months kinda slips out of the narrative. (and I seriously doubt that was the actual number - although if 12000 troops are doing this much damage to approx twice that number of RA then they UA clearly still has 'game'.).

The guy is out now and can say whatever he wants, but it is pretty clear which side he is on in this thing - I use him as a inverted truth barometer though.  

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Probably aftermath photos of video with Russian arty ot MLRS strike on advancing UKR platoon, armed with YPR-765. One APC has destroyed with almost direct hit, other two damaged. 

 

Despite successes we pay big price for it... In recent days many citizens of Mykolaiv and Odesa has been donating own blood for wounded soldiers from Kherson front. Volunteers, who gather the money for medical equipment write we have huge number of wounded, so they wonder how our medics have a time to manage with this endless stream

See below

2 hours ago, Huba said:

It is horrible that ZSU has to do with these old, barely armored vehicles, while all the good stuff like Marders or Bradleys just gathers dust somewhere in storage. I really hope that after the next donor conference on September 8th there will be some change in direction, at least regarding the IFV. Shame Poland doesn't have much more to offer in this regard, BMPs are not an upgrade at all regarding protection

Scholz and Jake Sullivan need to haunted by Ukrainian widows for the rest of their lives. Brave men are dying by the hour, in what may the most morally clear war EVER, because those bleeping fools want to split hairs. And yes we have given the Ukrainians just enough. But bleeping bleep me asking other people to die for your anxieties takes hubris.

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

May was pre-HIMARS.  I haven't heard of any concentrated strikes since then.  Looks like it would be worth investing a couple of salvos.

BTW, the first thought I had when seeing this pictures is "yup, obviously Russia feels it has nothing to fear from Ukraine's inferior forces!"

Steve

We need to get over our selves and start shipping Ukraine M-26 rockets by the ship and train load. This is the army they were built to kill, and the entirety of eastern Ukraine is going to have to be de-mined regardless.

[Artkin]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Chornobaivka airfield - how it looked in May

Wow! that would make for a fantastic scenario.

[Haiduk]

Huge explosion in Balakliya, Kharkiv oblast

Edited September 4, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

9 minutes ago, Artkin said:

Wow! that would make for a fantastic scenario.

UAV targeting and artillery spotter trainig mission? 

Edited September 4, 2022 by Haiduk

[Artkin]

Just now, Haiduk said:

UAV targeting and artillery spotter trainig missian? 

Haha, I've thought about doing scenarios like that. It's feasable. 

I just think the layout is pretty cool. My scenario wouldnt be too realistic!

[Haiduk]

Russians on Lostarmor say they lost Petrivka village, north of Kherson oblast. This is small village between Liubymivka and Khreshchenivka, where AFU also had some advance, but likely without liberation of theese villages

Edited September 4, 2022 by Haiduk

[akd]

More sober Russian assessment posted to The Grey Zone:

 

[akd]

@sburke @Kinophile

Lt. Col. Aleksey Afonin, a deputy commander in 234th Guards Air-Assault Regiment, 76th Guards Air-Assault Division:

 

Maj. Alexander Ananichev, unit unknown:

 

 

[danfrodo]

43 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Been tracking this guy since the beginning and he is a stain on our profession at this point.  According to him the entire UA was wiped out in Mar.  Of course how a "destroyed force" managed to force generate 3 fighting brigades able to go on an offensive in 3-4 months kinda slips out of the narrative. (and I seriously doubt that was the actual number - although if 12000 troops are doing this much damage to approx twice that number of RA then they UA clearly still has 'game'.).

The guy is out now and can say whatever he wants, but it is pretty clear which side he is on in this thing - I use him as a inverted truth barometer though.  

Maybe he can join a consulting firm w Mike Flynn?

[Sojourner]

24 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Maybe he can join a consulting firm w Mike Flynn?

With offices in Leavenworth.

\

[Calamine Waffles]

 

[DesertFox]

Antonovsky bridge

 

 

[Artkin]

10 hours ago, Kinophile said:

https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/ukraine-war-1-september-2022-manoeuvre-warfare-for-beginners-534edb28873d

I forget, is Tom Cooper a "Friend of The Thread"? 

This was a good simplification. 

The author should have wrote WHY people draw lines. The South Western Front 80 years 2 months and 2 days ago (Exactly) had significantly more boots on the ground. The Soviet 38th Army defended a region about the length of Kharkov to Izium. By this time they were a defeated army, but looking at the maps, other Soviet infantry armies held approximately the same length in the defense. With the infantry-based trench warfare, some similarities can be drawn. Of course the manuever forces are and armored, as they were in ww2. By this time (June 6th 1942) tanks were pretty abundant on South Western Front though nowhere near the proportion (To the infantryman) today. The Soviets alone had about 670~ tanks as of June 28th. 

The Germans had about 360 tanks. 

It's important to note that the scale of the conflict has changed dramatically. 

[Artkin]

29 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

 

Too much for too little. The thing needs a tandem warhead launcher. It will see limited use otherwise.

[kraze]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

The same narratives, being inserted in our media space by Russian PsyOps as well as "there is a conflict between Zaluzhyi and President's office, because Zelenskyi sees in Zaluzhnyi own political rival" with big glad were picked up by former president Poroshenko followers and his numerous bot-farms 

This one wasn't a russian psyop though. Politicking the army is one of many reasons why Zelenskyy shouldn't and won't have a second term that our western friends here don't know yet. Bezugla at the frontlines is just one example of presidential office attacking army's chain of command (Arestovich getting a colonel rank despite having spent 0 seconds in the army is another) for political points but let's leave that kind of stuff for after the victory.

Edited September 4, 2022 by kraze

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

Maybe he can join a consulting firm w Mike Flynn?

What really bothers me is that the guy knows better.  No way a SAMS grad (according to YouTube) with his background cannot see the same info as we are and comes up with this stuff without being in someone's back pocket.  I can get leanings and biases, everyone has them, but the continuous line of unprofessional 'alternative facts' this guys keep pushing is bloody shameful.  

Further we live in a time without accountability apparently, you can say BS for months and no one ever goes back and says "hey wait a minute you said the UA was finished in March, and then again in Apr, and then in Jun in the Donbass and now again while they are attacking at Kherson....that doesn't make sense".

[dan/california]

12 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

What really bothers me is that the guy knows better.  No way a SAMS grad (according to YouTube) with his background cannot see the same info as we are and comes up with this stuff without being in someone's back pocket.  I can get leanings and biases, everyone has them, but the continuous line of unprofessional 'alternative facts' this guys keep pushing is bloody shameful.  

Further we live in a time without accountability apparently, you can say BS for months and no one ever goes back and says "hey wait a minute you said the UA was finished in March, and then again in Apr, and then in Jun in the Donbass and now again while they are attacking at Kherson....that doesn't make sense".

Sounds he like deserves my favorite new meme.

Edited September 4, 2022 by dan/california

[Haiduk]

53 minutes ago, kraze said:

Bezugla at the frontlines is just one example of presidential office attacking army's chain of command

Bezugla "intervention in comamnd line chain" as a reason of Siverodonetsk falling - this is ridiculous hype of Butusov, no more. She is nobody for military even though she came from President's office.

After Siverodonetsk, general Krasilnikov, which commanded of this direction was dismissed. And this is real reason of lossing of Siverodonetsk and Lysychansk - weak C&C, weak supply, weak comms as well as not motivated troops, abandoning positions. 

Whole Donbas direction is very problematic, alas. If on Izium axis our troops successfully withstanded against hordes of tanks and infantry on mostly open/forestry ground, that from Siverodonetsk to Bakhmut on heavy fortified prepared positions, industrial zones we had permanent problems. As I recall only on Donetsk direction we continously see video appeals of deserted soldiers in style "generals use us as cannon fodder, without cover". Only on Donbas direction we can read desperate posts of defenders Pisky and Bakhmut about poor arty support, where all artillery using is heavy centralized and artillery chiefs just ignore arty recon info and artillery just waste own shells - like Santa wrote "our arty fires just in the field in 800 m from the enemy, when I say to artillerists, what the hell, they just f...g me and say, that they hit all targets". When according to the same Santa's words helicopters fire own rockets in nowhere from maximum distance and on his pretensions HQ threaten him to leave Pisky without air support if he doesn't like somethig.    

The same on Soledar - Bakhmut. Lack of artillery, lack of supply, rifle battalion of 93rd brigade was badly hit by own artillery. Artillery of 58th brigade - poor battalion of D-20 with weared barrels can't hit anything, but arty chief of brigade f..d any pretensions. 

I don't know who is responsible for Donbas axis, some people write this is lt.-general Nayev, former JFO commander command there, and likely he and his HQ can't change situation to the last week, when Russians and DPR just lost enough fodder and slowed down own offensive. But Satna says in Pisky we lost "hundreds". And Bezugla wasn't there. So, I think, no sense to search black cat in dark room, especially if there is no cat in the room.    

Edited September 4, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, kraze said:

Arestovich getting a colonel rank despite having spent 0 seconds in the army is another

Oh, I forgot. Despite I have very bad opinion about role of Arestovich, he really has military education and spent some years in army. He studied in Odesa Ground Forces Academy and got sen.lt rank in 1998 - he said he studierd as recon, but this is not true, he has diploma of military translator. There was a twitter post of 72nd brigade serviceman about Arestovich "service" in brigade. During ATO he was a deputy of brigade's recon chief and has only paper work. He don't know, who took of Arestovich on the mission in grey zone - he went the last in chain enough far from other group. So when the group blew up on OZM-72 he really "survived", but this not unique case or the miracle as he says, this is just because he was too far from explosion. And looks like he just abandoned own comrades and ran away. About his promotion in colonel rank- this was only his words, and later he said this is a joke. Slippery person and peacock. 

Edited September 4, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Some UKR aviataion

 

[Haiduk]

First trophies from Vysokopillia - BTR-D and BMD-2. Thanks to Russian 11th air-assault brigade. Soldier on the second video, looking on the driving BMD-2 says "this is a second so far", but it's unclear he meant other BMD-2 or BTR-D from first video.

 

Edited September 4, 2022 by Haiduk

[DesertFox]

I guess that means that there is no 2nd silicon valley hidden somewhere behind the Urals...