How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[chrisl]

28 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Hmm, worth requoting a Girkin quote from one of your terrific maps:

6 months of the large-scale phase of the Russian-Ukrainian war have passed... and it has degenerated into a small-scale one...

The enemy continues to attack, but already on the scale of a bridge over an irrigation canal, the intersection of secondary roads.... At this rate, a certain time will pass and they will begin to attack individual landmarks with "all available forces" -- a ditch, a standing tree alone or some broken barn in Bogorodichny.

...That cuts both ways of course [/genuflects and spits]

Is Strelkov hopping on the 'Frozen Conflict' bandwagon?

(apologies to all dads with daughters)

Or maybe precision has an insidiousness about it that will beat mass without big frontal assaults.  Do you need a major offensive with companies of tanks roaring across fields when you can write your name in holes on the bridge the enemy needs to supply ~20K troops?  Or level neighborhoods when you can fly a drone over their BMP or stolen car when they're on the way to loot the grocery and drop a grenade through the hatch or sunroof?  Why not "quietly" go about blowing up every supply cache bigger than a home depot bucket so the supply lines are stretched to 300 km to the depot and they're stuck trying to just-in-time hand grenades so they don't get blown up by some drone that's sloppy with its cigarette butts.  Eventually the undertrained guys in holes who aren't getting paid or fed or even supplied with bullets and are getting shot at and blown up might just up and walk the other way.

[fireship4]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

could be different Kisilevka

If some guy in the past came up with the idea of having a lot of villages with the same name to confuse invaders, it worked too well.

[chuckdyke]

Managed to capture a 'still' of the Dutch Recycling Container. We call those things a Recycling Bin in Australia. The picture just frankly speaking doesn't make sense. The infantry debussed behind it, instead of debussing one terrain feature from the suspected enemy's position. Or is this a modern variation of the helmet above the trenches on top of a rifle-barrel? They may as well the vehicles were donated with compliments of the Dutch taxpayer. 

[dan/california]

8 minutes ago, chrisl said:

Or maybe precision has an insidiousness about it that will beat mass without big frontal assaults.  Do you need a major offensive with companies of tanks roaring across fields when you can write your name in holes on the bridge the enemy needs to supply ~20K troops?  Or level neighborhoods when you can fly a drone over their BMP or stolen car when they're on the way to loot the grocery and drop a grenade through the hatch or sunroof?  Why not "quietly" go about blowing up every supply cache bigger than a home depot bucket so the supply lines are stretched to 300 km to the depot and they're stuck trying to just-in-time hand grenades so they don't get blown up by some drone that's sloppy with its cigarette butts.  Eventually the undertrained guys in holes who aren't getting paid or fed or even supplied with bullets and are getting shot at and blown up might just up and walk the other way.

They have twice already. My guess is that they are about to do it a third time, though many of them will discover the hard way that 750 meters in flowing water is actually quite a long swim.

A lot of people who really should know better seem to think the numbers from Russias statistical agency are not just made up to fit Putin's mood.

[chrisl]

1 minute ago, dan/california said:

They have twice already. My guess is that they are about to do it a third time, though many of them will discover the hard way that 750 meters in flowing water is actually quite a long swim.

A lot of people who really should know better seem to think the numbers from Russias statistical agency are not just made up to fit Putin's mood.

Maybe they've been manufacturing lifeboats and vests to ship to Kherson.

So with as much equipment as is going to get lined up and blown up at the ferry crossings, is that going to need its own thread?

[Grossman]

On the demise of Putins henchmen. 

https://www.the-sun.com/news/6094991/putins-chiefs-assassinations-net-closes-in-on-russia/

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, chrisl said:

Or maybe precision has an insidiousness about it that will beat mass without big frontal assaults.  

Could be. Kind of like 10,000 games of Arma being played in RL. With infinite rockets, like this one (aren't Javs supposed to be top attack though?):

 

But no respawns....

[Grigb]

46 minutes ago, fireship4 said:

If some guy in the past came up with the idea of having a lot of villages with the same name to confuse invaders, it worked too well.

Yep! And it is even worse - on the RU military maps they still have old USSR names that very often have nothing in common with UKR names. Also, you can hear names spelled UKR way, RU way and mixed way + English spelling on Google map. 

My favorite so far is Kherson village Tavriyske which is on google map as Tavrijs´ke and RU spell it like Tavricheskoe.  

[chrisl]

2 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Yep! And it is even worse - on the RU military maps they still have old USSR names that very often have nothing in common with UKR names. Also, you can hear names spelled UKR way, RU way and mixed way + English spelling on Google map. 

My favorite so far is Kherson village Tavriyske which is on google map as Tavrijs´ke and RU spell it like Tavricheskoe.  

And they're probably still mostly deliberately wrong, too.  Since the USSR did that on purpose for decades to confuse attackers and probably was slow about publishing corrected versions after they admitted it.

[CAZmaj]

12 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Could be. Kind of like 10,000 games of Arma being played in RL. With infinite rockets, like this one (aren't Javs supposed to be top attack though?):

 

But no respawns....

Javelins can do both attack modes.

[Grigb]

At least one UKR recon and sabotage group reached Kherson earlier in the morning. There was a fire fight at the outskirts. RU reports millions of UKR troops were killed in this raid. Surprised they did not declare them polish mercenaries. 

[chuckdyke]

2 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Surprised they did not declare them polish mercenaries. 

SS Zombie attack sounds more plausible. 

[chuckdyke]

21 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Could be. Kind of like 10,000 games of Arma being played in RL. With infinite rockets, like this one (aren't Javs supposed to be top attack though?):

 

But no respawns....

You know it is real because no pinned soldiers in the fetal position.

[Grigb]

According to RU report firefight with UKR recon group happened in Tavrichesky district. 

I would not call it the outskirts. Either it was partisans or UKR recon groups can walk pretty deep into Kherson. 

 

[Grigb]

RU Nats seems to be returning back to internal infighting with those who is against showing publicly genocidal tendencies.

[UPDATE] It is quiet though. Activity seems to be lower than usual. Probably they are at least somewhat nervous and are waiting for the news. 

Edited August 30, 2022 by Grigb

[fireship4]

52 minutes ago, Grigb said:

My favorite so far is Kherson village Tavriyske

New York has to be high on there...

[Haiduk]

Looks like partisans/SOF used dense fog to open "second front" in Kherson

https://mobile.twitter.com/Q0MT6pFmbVqynsM/status/1564470649636151298?cxt=HHwWhICz0YrxjrYrAAAA

https://mobile.twitter.com/Mike_Eckel/status/1564478328714760197?cxt=HHwWisC4nYiwkrYrAAAA

 

Edited August 30, 2022 by Haiduk

[LongLeftFlank]

3 hours ago, Grigb said:

This part needs some clarifying. The elite liberals (for example May that was arrested recently and AFAIR released soon after), the part that made unwritten pact with Putin are certainly afraid of his death and RU Nat rise to power or general chaos with wide spread violence from RU Nats. But apart from that every liberal wants him dead, preferably from natural causes. He is literally destroying liberals lifes and dragging country into liberal's worse nightmare.

Galeev (Kazan Tatar) is more cynical about those 'liberals'.  He views the Moscow elites as a hydra (chop one head off, another 2 grow) and should be given the boot entirely (by the provincials) and not shored up by their Western (elite) counterparts.

...unlike the decadent Uzbeks, who will never amount to much.

***

Btw, isn't 'Chops' short for черножопый, which is basically the Russian 'n-word'? Not here to be woke police, just curious.

[Grigb]

now RU claims Recon group approached along Mykolaev-Kherson highway and was spotted around 6:30 in the area of infection clinic.

This one is even funnier - UKR Recon group simply walked in through the front door. Seems RU does not control Kherson as tight as they want us to believe.  

[kraze]

38 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Galeev (Kazan Tatar) is more cynical about those 'liberals'.  He views the Moscow elites as a hydra (chop one head off, another 2 grow) and should be given the boot entirely (by the provincials) and not shored up by their Western (elite) counterparts.

...unlike the decadent Uzbeks, who will never amount to much.

***

Btw, isn't 'Chops' short for черножопый, which is basically the Russian 'n-word'? Not here to be woke police, just curious.

But I mean the guy is not wrong. russian "liberals" are even more cynical than their "RU nats" counterpart. They are just as fascist - but are a lot more dangerous because they are intelligent enough to pretend being "moderate". It's how Yelstin completely got away with all the atrocities - "yeah we just finished burning a few ichkerians alive, but we love your McDonald's, we gonna eat that McDonald's so good, let's be friends US" *proceeds to drop bombs on Grozny civilian district*.

It's why I find Navalny to be a lot more hazardous than putin or girkin. Because in case of the latter two the West will keep cracking down on Russia. But Navalny and his likes knows how to pull West's strings to let all the warcrimes slide.

Edited August 30, 2022 by kraze

[LongLeftFlank]

2 hours ago, chuckdyke said:

The picture just frankly speaking doesn't make sense. The infantry debussed behind it, instead of debussing one terrain feature from the suspected enemy's position.

Isn't that traditional Red Army era SOP for MR platoon 'advance to contact' though (yes, I get these are UA troops, but I'd guess this is a training/prop shot)?

...In a combined arms platoon attack, tanks go ahead, while the dismounts follow up 'next to or slightly ahead of' their IFVs (c11:50 of this well done video)

... But where there aren't tanks available, the IFV goes ahead in the tank role, while the dismounts move to flank and envelop.

Proliferation of modern ranged ATW since the 1980s makes such tactics rather hazardous of course -- recon by death -- for the IFV crews.  The Afgantsy abandoned the idea pretty quickly, in favour of keeping the vulnerable IFVs back as suppressive fire platforms. 

...But it may still be on the books as SOP.

Edited August 30, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Huba]

UA Mig-29 carrying HARM:

From this video:

And today is  the farewell to Slovakian MiGs. Poland and Czechia will pick up Slovakian air-policing duties for now. One of the Polish journos mentioned that at times only 2 of 11 Slovakian MiGs were in flying condition, it looks like they managed to get 4 airborne. Hopefully in wartime conditions without all the red tape more can be flown:

 

[chuckdyke]

16 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

But where there aren't tanks available, the IFV goes ahead in the tank role, while the dismounts move to flank and envelop.

Yess but these are old Dutch APC's  (M113)of which a contibutor of a previous post wrote these have only a BMG .50. An IFV in a tank role would be BPM 2. The photo could even be a staged photoshoot. Kind regards.

[FancyCat]

Wiki says Deputy Head of Kherson oblast, however the Head is currently in hospital due to poisoning so Kherson cat has a point there….

 

 

[Grigb]

40 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Galeev (Kazan Tatar) is more cynical about those 'liberals'.  He views the Moscow elites as a hydra (chop one head off, another 2 grow) and should be given the boot entirely (by the provincials) and not shored up by their Western (elite) counterparts.

...unlike the decadent Uzbeks, who will never amount to much.

He is right that they are worse than they like to pretend and can easily go for contract with devil (this is how Putin gained power). West must be careful dealing with them.

But on the other hand, give them a bit of slack. They are like this because the whole RU society is like this. You cannot single them out of the entire population. And unlike rest of population they are making progress because they are looking at West and are trying to emulate it. LGBT for example is accepted by RU Liberals. If West make it clear to them that certain behavior is unacceptable, they will change.

Regarding their danger, that is not true. Otherwise, Putin would be long gone. They are non-violent bunch. Moscow liberals are especially non-violent. Around 2011-2012 extremly marginal hardcore part of RU liberals asked Navalny, who could lead a lot of people at that time, to stop pussing around and make a stand (like UKR did at Maidan). Navalny replied that it is wrong approach, he will not do it, peaceful protest is the only way forward.  And he blew the most real chance to get rid of Putin. 

40 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Btw, isn't 'Chops' short for черножопый, which is basically the Russian 'n-word'? Not here to be woke police, just curious.

No, it is a different word (initially just chopped piece of wood). It is not as strong and as a result this is what you can hear most often.