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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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So what they are shooting at in Crimea? Cruise missiles or attack drones I'd think would fly much much lower. They are not engaging ballistic missiles either. Recon/ decoy drones? Is it just a psyop or intel gathering action for now?

Edit:

An article about UA pilots training on A-10 simulators somewhere in Ukraine. Strange 0_o

 

 

Edited by Huba
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5 minutes ago, Huba said:

Recon/ decoy drones? Is it just a psyop or intel gathering action for now?

Intel gathering, AD reaction tests, PsyOps (There is a lot of "uncertaininty" in Crimean publics).

I think with crowdfunded bought SAR satellite we will have more information.

I wonder what type of drones we are using... I this drones, of course... There are several types of UKR-developed drones can fly over 200 km: UJ-22, PD-2, ACS-3. Theese frones in limited numbers are using in army now. But they enough expensive in cost (not Bayraktars, of course, but they developed as dual purpose - for recon and strike), so just waste PD-2 for decoy role.... 

But we have example when two probably Chineese commercial long-range drones Mugin-5 from AliExpres equipped with HE, hit rafinery in Russia two months ago (170 km from frontline), so maybe we have some fleet of similar birds to tease Russian AD 

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2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Intel gathering, AD reaction tests, PsyOps (There is a lot of "uncertaininty" in Crimean publics).

I think with crowdfunded bought SAR satellite we will have more information.

I wonder what type of drones we are using... I this drones, of course... There are several types of UKR-developed drones can fly over 200 km: UJ-22, PD-2, ACS-3. Theese frones in limited numbers are using in army now. But they enough expensive in cost (not Bayraktars, of course, but they developed as dual purpose - for recon and strike), so just waste PD-2 for decoy role.... 

But we have example when two probably Chineese commercial long-range drones Mugin-5 from AliExpres equipped with HE, hit rafinery in Russia two months ago (170 km from frontline), so maybe we have some fleet of similar birds to tease Russian AD 

"Twitter experts" seem to be in agreement that this is what's going on. What is interesting is what happens next? Ground seems to be almost ready for some serious strikes to follow, either with ATACMS or  some kind of cruise missiles (or both!). We've already seen that Russia won't start WW3 cause something in Crimea was hit, time for katzaps to feel the pain!

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5 hours ago, FancyCat said:

Cut off of the facility from the grid without connection to the Russian Crimean grid would endanger the operation and safety of the plant and therefore the region. That's why Ukraine stuck power lines from Crimea to the plant to push back the connection.

Reduce power levels to very low level, disconnect from the grid, shutdown the plants, either leave them in hot standby for restart or cool them down to cold shutdown.  Done.  20% of UKR electricity cut off.

There is no danger to the plant, or to the environment to do that. None at all. Nuclear plants, and for that matter ANY electrical generation plant, do that ALL THE TIME. There's absolutely no reason to cut the plant off from the electric grid to stop it from operating and providing electricity. I would think by cutting it off they mean cut off IT from supplying electricity to the grid. It can still draw from the grid for it's own power loads. But if they did do that (cut off completely), there are backup diesel generators to supply power for cooling, unless of course someone blows those up. Fukushima was a problem because the DGs and their fuel were located above the design basis tsunami water level. They had what they call a "beyond design basis" accident. 



Dave

Edited by Ultradave
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8 minutes ago, Huba said:

It is officially confirmed that Ukrainian MiG-29s are firing HARMs (also, by accident, full breakdown of latest arms package in tweet above) :

Hm... On the background of assunption of this article about 2-seat combat trainers MiG-29UB for "Wild Vessel" role  - there was a news about funerals ot two pilots of MiG-29, being lost approx on 8th of Aug.  Maybe it was their unsuccesful SEAD mission... But maybe it was two different losses...

Captain (mayor posthumuosly) Anton Lystopad, 204th tactical aviation brigade (but maybe mistake - he lived in Ivamo-Frankovsk, the home of 114th tactical aviation brigade and second lost pilot also served in 114th). Was aworded as best pilot of 2019 year. A month ago they already was hit, but could landed on one working engine. The 100th sortie turned out fatal... 

Погиб один из лучших лётчиков Воздушных сил ВСУ Антон Листопад | Украинская  правда

Colonel Yuriy Pohorilyi. In 2015-2018 was a commander of 114th Tactical Aviation brigade (also MiG-29), before this served in 299th Tactical Aviation brigade (Su-25, L-39). Current unit and duty unknown.

 Пилот из Харьковщины погиб на войне

 

 

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31 minutes ago, pavel.k said:

Could TU-141 be used in decoy role?

Ukriane has Tu-141 with range 1000 km and Tu-143 with range 180 km. Unknown how much. They, of course, can reach Crimea, but they both are jet UAVs, so should be heard in the sky as jets. I don't know what locals wrote about this. 

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It makes sense to integrate HARM with the MiG-29, since that is the primary fighter-bomber asset of the PSU with the kinematics most suitable for HARM usage (Su-27s are more valuable as fighters and Su-24s are too few and a bit too vulnerable).

Justin Bronk suspects they might also be using it against EW assets, but no hard evidence of that yet.

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1 minute ago, Calamine Waffles said:

It makes sense to integrate HARM with the MiG-29, since that is the primary fighter-bomber asset of the PSU with the kinematics most suitable for HARM usage (Su-27s are more valuable as fighters and Su-24s are too few and a bit too vulnerable).

Justin Bronk suspects they might also be using it against EW assets, but no hard evidence of that yet.

I think that it would primarily be Polish/ American "spare parts" that were integrated with HARM - much more probable than American technicians travelling to Ukraine to do the modification. The question follows, what modification are being made on Slovakian and rest of Polish MiGs...

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One more Twitter finding from today. Thomas Theiner, who is quite a competent guy regarding artillery equipment is having a meltdown as we speak, cause a leaked video (allegedly) from Ukraine shows HIMARS truck loaded with (again, allegedly) ATACMS.  Now AFAIK ATACMS pods are not different visually from regular rocket pods, precisely for OPSEC reasons. But I'm just a guy who has never seen neither, and he's  assumed to be an expert... 
We'll know soon enough.

 

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2 hours ago, Markus86 said:

Not the smartest thing, to operate a drone over enemy territory with a video tour of your military base saved on it.  

 

Jesus you just can't make this stuff up. Hundreds, Hundreds of stories from this war would be derided  as too unrealistically stupid for a proper simulation /war game script. 

Hundreds

Edited by Kinophile
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25 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

I recall a report saying Himars is driven empty on the highways, rendezvousing with their missile packages at the destinations. That may be the reason for there being no tell-tail rocket 6-pack in the back.

Yep, thats how I understood it also. The 6-packs are placed wherever the firemission is planned and the "empty" launchers drive from mission to mission.

Edited by DesertFox
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Damn, Ithe pain of being 3 pages late catches on me.

Just regarding "Javelin throwing", here is an example of video shot near Avdievka when it apparently did not damaged the tank. Tank was ofc driving the Russian way, into the urban area, without infantry support.

 

Edited by Beleg85
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2 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Damn, Ithe pain of being 3 pages late catches on me.

Just regarding "Javelin throwing", here is an example of video shot near Avdievka when it apparently did not damaged the tank. Tank was ofc driving the Russian way, into the urban area, without infantry support.

 

There is a longer version, the tank makes it about a 1/4 of a mile back up the road before the crew bails. Two people get  out. No way to know if the started with a third. Not every missile gets the turret to orbit jackpot, but very few tanks are actually mission capable after a hit.

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