How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

So the guy's basic conclusion is correct.  5000 Javelins delivered ≠ 5000 dead Russian targets.

Though, on other hand US military officials claimed in March about 89 % of hits by UKR Javelin operators (100 hits from 112 launches) 

Quote

and the other was TOW-2, which we did not give the Ukrainians.

New military aid package icludes 1000 TOW missiles (alas, not pointed what exactly) 

Edited August 19, 2022 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

23 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Results of yesterday strike on Russian ammo dump in Belgorod oblast. This turned out not military base of 752nd MRR of 3rd MRD near Solotino village as was previously geolocated, but NW from nearby Timonovo village. Near it is located some facilities, which didn't mark on Wikimapia, but looks like new-built storages of ammo dump. Russians reportedly moved part of ammunition to the forest, but this didn't save it. "Cigarettes" hit exactly the forest. 

Video from thermal camera

Ammo dump near Timonovo

SAR image of burning place in the forest before and after

That thermal video is awesome!  Really shows how ammo cooks off long after the bulk of the dump is gone.

Steve

[sburke]

27 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

NY Times sent around some reporting via email (only available to subscribers) that shows the narrative of how this war is going is slowly changing. 

Steve

Read that.  Seems they are still doing a little arse covering.  This line in particular I found.. amusing I guess.

Quote

The bottom line is that the most recent phase of the war has gone better for Ukraine than many observers expected after Russia’s progress earlier this year.

What freakin progress are they talking about?  The debacle at the pontoon crossing? the futile push ay Izyum?  They still don't seem to be able to do a full blown holistic assessment of what Russia was actually able to achieve and at what cost.

 

 

[fireship4]

Quote

Video from thermal camera

Pipe ash.  Stuff is wicked dangerous.

Edited August 19, 2022 by fireship4

[Artkin]

The Hypersonic Cigarette joke kills me everytime. 

[Reclaimer]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

I personally used a Javelin trainer.  I was hitting AFVs left right and center with only a few minutes of instruction.  The trainer was very sophisticated and simulated terrain obfuscation.  I remember hitting a BMP that was moving in and out from behind hills obscured by trees.  That got some cheers from the 20+ people watching me (yeah, no pressure!).

I have had some weird and some not so weird connections to this war:

Right out of college I worked at a studio that developed a Javelin trainer for the U.S. Army. I don't know if it's the one you used, but ours was based on a popular commercial game engine.

Later, I consulted on a suicide drone program. They never told me what the program was called, but it was designed to target vehicles (I wasn't involved in actually developing the drone or anything - the team behind that was looking into whether they could use some software I had developed to help them iterate faster in testing).

Those are the not so weird connections. The weird connection is the Russians and their "Ukrainian Nazis' copies of the Sims 3" from earlier in the war, as, until somewhat recently, I worked on The Sims.

[BlackMoria]

The latest announced package by the US has Demolitions Equipment listed.

Ukraine - "Our SFs can do 's'podey' stuff now.  Much beautiful fires.  Warms the heart.  Want more 's'podey' stuff to use.

US - Well then, 'S'podey' stuff you shall have ...

[Battlefront.com]

9 minutes ago, Reclaimer said:

I have had some weird and some not so weird connections to this war:

That's an interesting resume you have there!

9 minutes ago, Reclaimer said:

Right out of college I worked at a studio that developed a Javelin trainer for the U.S. Army. I don't know if it's the one you used, but ours was based on a popular commercial game engine.

This was 22 years ago.  The trainer I used was still in Beta testing at Redstone Arsenal.  It involved a Javelin CLU plugged into a computer that substituted for the real image.  A series of gyros were affixed to the CLU so that the computer image would "jiggle" just like a real image would.  They said the sensitivity of the gyros could react to a mouse fart, or something like that.  Certainly every single tiny move I made seemed realistically translated to image shift.

I don't know what was used for the computer imagery.  For the day it was pretty realistic.

9 minutes ago, Reclaimer said:

Later, I consulted on a suicide drone program. They never told me what the program was called, but it was designed to target vehicles (I wasn't involved in actually developing the drone or anything - the team behind that was looking into whether they could use some software I had developed to help them iterate faster in testing).

Makes sense.  There's only so many of those things you want to build, blow up, and evaluate.

9 minutes ago, Reclaimer said:

Those are the not so weird connections. The weird connection is the Russians and their "Ukrainian Nazis' copies of the Sims 3" from earlier in the war, as, until somewhat recently, I worked on The Sims.

Heh!  Yeah, and I just saw a game I developed 20+ years ago used by VDV to plot out Ukrainian defenses.  Talk about things we couldn't have known would happen with what we worked on, eh?

Steve

[Huba]

Here's a summary of announcement by "senior DoD official", both about new arms package and general situation in UA. Some highlights:

- US sends 16 105mm howitzers. This shift towards 105mm is interesting, what would be the reason for that?

- NASAMS expected in UA in 2 -3 months

 

[Reclaimer]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The trainer I used was still in Beta testing at Redstone Arsenal.

Yeah, that was our trainer, then. I started there about 15 years ago, so the Javelin trainer was already "finished" when I was there, though we were constantly updating it. It was using Unreal Engine 2 for the rendering.

13 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Heh!  Yeah, and I just saw a game I developed 20+ years ago used by VDV to plot out Ukrainian defenses.  Talk about things we couldn't have known would happen with what we worked on, eh?

I saw that! Absolutely wild.

[Battlefront.com]

7 minutes ago, Huba said:

- US sends 16 105mm howitzers. This shift towards 105mm is interesting, what would be the reason for that?

I suspect it is for the reasons in our earlier discussion about Ukraine needing additional systems that can be used close to the front and moved around easier than 155s.  A 105 can be towed by a large variety of vehicles.  Hell, my pickup truck can easily tow it (I often tow weight 3 to 4 times as much).

Another aspect, of course, is that for the weight and cubic volume NATO can supply a lot more rounds of 105 vs. 155.  It's also another source of shells that can be tapped into.

Steve

[Haiduk]

32 minutes ago, Huba said:

US sends 16 105mm howitzers. This shift towards 105mm is interesting, what would be the reason for that?

Exhausting of D-30 barrels of air-assault units. Usually such brigade has battalion of 122 mm D-30 and battalion of 122 mm 2S1. Looks like the place of D-30 now will be substituted for 105 mm. Also 105 mm L119 is more suitable for modern air-assault troops.

Edited August 19, 2022 by Haiduk

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Though, on other hand US military officials claimed in March about 89 % of hits by UKR Javelin operators (100 hits from 112 launches) 

That is just nuts.  A weapon system that can kill a tank at that range, with those stats.  

[sburke]

regarding the narrowing of decision space and your statement as to why Putin isn't doing more to try and ease the conflict

Quote

Ukraine will not open peace negotiations with Russia until all Russian soldiers have withdrawn from the country. This includes not only the territory that Moscow’s troops have conquered since the beginning of the invasion on February 24, but also the areas they have controlled since 2014, such as the Crimean peninsula and most of eastern Donbas. That’s according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who appeared Thursday at a joint press conference with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and United Nations Secretary General, António Guterres. “Future negotiations can only take place when Russia withdraws from all Ukrainian territory,” Zelenskiy said.

 

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Reclaimer said:

I have had some weird and some not so weird connections to this war.

You are on a forum of a game company that the VDV stole screenshots from for their manuals.  We gotta thousand problems but weird is not one of them.

Edited August 19, 2022 by The_Capt

[sburke]

4 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

You are on a forum of a game company that the VDV stole screenshots from for their manuals.  We gotta thousand problems but weird is not one of them.

really?  

[Reclaimer]

7 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

You on a forum of a game company that the VDV stole screenshots from for their manuals.  We gotta thousand problems but weird is not one of them.

Haha, fair enough! I guess I fit right in, then.

[Haiduk]

13 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

That is just nuts.  A weapon system that can kill a tank at that range, with those stats.  

I read in several cases Javs could hit targets further than claimed 2500 m. As I can recall, what wrote our soures, absolute recrord is 3400+ m successful launch at Russian tank.

Edited August 19, 2022 by Haiduk

[akd]

6 minutes ago, sburke said:

really?  

Really.

 

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

I read in several cases Javs could hit targets further than claimed 2500 m. As I can recall, what wrote our soures, absolute recrord is 3400+ m successful launch at Russian tank.

I think there's been even longer range hits noted in either Afghanistan or Iraq.  3600m comes to mind, could even be longer than that.  Of course the terrain was optimal and the target likely wasn't moving.

The Javelin is as good as its makers say it is.  Of that I have zero doubts.

Steve

[sburke]

11 minutes ago, akd said:

Really.

I was referring to him saying we don't have a problem with weird... and yet here I am.  

[akd]

29 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I think there's been even longer range hits noted in either Afghanistan or Iraq.  3600m comes to mind, could even be longer than that.  Of course the terrain was optimal and the target likely wasn't moving.

The Javelin is as good as its makers say it is.  Of that I have zero doubts.

Steve

 

 

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The 148F and 148E use the Block 1 Command Launch Unit, capable of striking a target 4 kilometers (2.5 miles) away under most operating conditions. This is an increase of 1.5 kilometers (0.93 miles) on the missiles developed under the Block 0 series. 

https://www.thedefensepost.com/2022/07/05/lockheed-latest-model-javelin-production/

 

Wait? Whut!?

 

Edited August 19, 2022 by akd

[acrashb]

1 hour ago, hcrof said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62602367

According to the article, damage to the transmission lines are the biggest risk that may cause overheating because that energy has to go somewhere. But the reactor has been set up to hopefully safely shut down in that event, using the existing diesel generators for power during this time.

Ukraine warns Russia may cut Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant from power grid, both sides brace for 'provocation' | Fox News

"Ukraine’s nuclear power agency Energoatom on Friday warned that it believes Russia is looking to cut the Zaporizhzhia plant off from the nation’s power grid as concerns continue to mount over a potential nuclear catastrophe.  "

As Steve said, pulling the staff may have been the message.  But cutting the plant off raises risk and may be an option for further escalation.

The generators, which I assume are at least N+1, are not there to run the plant for long periods, they are for emergencies.  

What got Fukushima wasn't the tsunami as such, it was a design flaw: the generators were in pits below grade that flooded with the tsunami.

 

[Huba]

HIMARS o'clock in Crimea again:

 

Edited August 19, 2022 by Huba

[Haiduk]

UKR forces continuing probes on Crimean air defense

Yevpatoria. SAM launch - something hit or this is fragment of missile. Locals write about three booms.

Sevastopol - locals write they heard three explosions in the sky. The photo of launch

Kerch. Reportedly air defense is working. No photo-video yet

HIMARS time. Nova Kakhovka