How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[FancyCat]

I'm not sure if I'm ready to get behind Politico's assertion that military aid to Ukraine is slowing down tho it is unfortunate that not more aid was pledged, tho buried in the headline, significant amounts of pledged aid turned into concrete aid flowing to Ukraine so at least prior pledges aren't being unfulfilled. We know some stuff is not publicized (HARM missiles, I find it feasible that the effort to get them on Soviet jets required a NATO effort). We know several European countries have requested to not be vocal about what is being sent. The reports we have of a ramp up of Soviet munitions production being restarted and upgraded in Eastern Europe in multiple countries, HARM missiles, gives me a indication we are shifting from public solidarity with Ukraine to a more subdued tone designed to prevent Russian escalation and Russian responses like prior bombings of European munition depots and factories that occurred before the latest invasion. If these actions occur, NATO must respond, and we start climbing the escalation ladder.

Better to stay quiet and hope the Russians don't notice the Bulgarian 152mm shells heading to Ukraine or the Ukrainian tanks being repaired in the Czech Republic, etc.

Now, one thing I do want to point out, the UK now has instructors from many NATO countries, training Ukrainians. What was initially just one country, has now expanded into a effort with trainers from Canada, New Zealand,  Germany, Norway, and the list goes on and I assume, more trainers, more trainees.

Clearly as time passes, NATO is proving it's steadfastness and unity. Is it slow? Yes. Are we continuing to see a trend of ramp up of support? Yes.

https://www.politico.eu/article/data-show-europe-waning-military-support-ukraine/

 

[Battlefront.com]

22 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Probably busy. Also note that it's not just one officer, it's probably a whole cabal covering for each other. Let's be honest, theres no shortage of dirtbag leadership in any military, U.S included. This is not Russian exclusive. Allegations of organized crime, ties to gangs, abusive leadership do occur and get busted time to time in the U.S and this even occurs in mid-level leadership. Luckily, hopefully in Ukraine, this story breaking out will firmly cause resolution to occur.

Oh for sure.  The recent Camp Lejeune scandal of more than a dozen Marines being paid to be "coyotes" for Mexican Human smugglers is an example of this.

My point is that the dirtbags and scumbags tend to get pushed out of command responsibilities (minimum) when it becomes clear people know what's going on. The Russian system of governance doesn't have that sort of accountability.  Ukraine is still struggling with the concepts as well as the practices, as this case clearly indicates.

I'm guessing that now that it's received some high profile airing in public that something will happen.  Especially now that Kyrylo Budanov's name is being linked to the scandal.

Steve

[The_Capt]

15 minutes ago, sburke said:

offer them a free copy of Black Sea with only one scenario -  that thing you mentioned about having an infantry force with a crapload of javelins.

Gotta do Hostomel....from BFC and the gang.

[Artkin]

That is absolutely amazing. 

[dan/california]

41 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Holy crap!  Well, fire up the legal team fella's... it's time to sue the VDV for copyright violations!

Seriously... wow

Steve

What is just amazing is that anyone who has played the game, any version, twice, can do quite this badly. I mean you really can work thru some the obvious and even some of the not so obvious what not to do with pixeltruppen. There is ZERO evidence the Russians learned ANYTHING. 

Edited August 18, 2022 by dan/california

[sburke]

15 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Gotta do Hostomel....from BFC and the gang.

be still my heart  - oh wait no map helos in CM.  Really wanted to see the HQ helo take a hit.

[akd]

Excalibur plinking along the front has begun:

 

[danfrodo]

4 minutes ago, sburke said:

be still my heart  - oh wait no map helos in CM.  Really wanted to see the HQ helo take a hit.

Hostemel was 6 months ago. I think it's been long enough to call it 'history' and thus it's not 'ghoulish' to publish.  'course, given how badly my last CMBS scenario went, I am probably just asking to be embarrassed.  I actually just went back to CMFI to hopefully regain my lost honor.

[Splinty]

25 minutes ago, sburke said:

be still my heart  - oh wait no map helos in CM.  Really wanted to see the HQ helo take a hit.

Maybe a helicopter flavor object with HQ right next to it is feasible?

[Battlefront.com]

24 minutes ago, akd said:

Excalibur plinking along the front has begun:

 

Excellent.  More confirmation that Ukraine is bringing all of its "toys" to the Kherson fight.  Half starved, ammo deprived, immobile Russians seeing one-shot-one-kills of their entrenched comrades should certainly make the ground war easier for Ukraine.

Steve

[DesertFox]

I guess they can make good use of it

 

 

[DesertFox]

Usually pretty reliable, however this is still waiting for confirmation. Timonovo, near Belgorod.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited August 18, 2022 by DesertFox

[danfrodo]

6 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Usually pretty reliable, however this is still waiting for confirmation. Timonovo, near Belgorod.

 

 

 

Heck yes, hit 'em across the border.  RU thinks it has safe haven for stockpiling shells that land on Kharkiv, good to start taking that away.

[Cederic]

Not good:

Ok, either they're planning something or they really do think Ukraine are.

But..

Ok, they're planning something.

 

 

[akd]

Looks like the fire there is spreading nicely:

 

[DesertFox]

More than a wildfire, thats for sure...

 

 

[The_Capt]

12 minutes ago, akd said:

Looks like the fire there is spreading nicely:

 

So about that bottomless supply of Russian ammo….

[dan/california]

14 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

More than a wildfire, thats for sure...

 

 

That isn't a wildfire, It is Putin's Peter the Great fantasy burning down, with sound effects.

[womble]

Quote

 

Russia’s defence spox claims Ukraine is planning a “false flag provocation” in Zaporizhzhia (Enerhodar) power station for Aug 19. “Russia will be blamed for the man-made catastrophe,” he warns.

 

Whatever atrocity Russia claims someone else is going to do, they have done already or are planning to do themselves. Their credibility is right there in the flushing pan alongside their chances of winning this war.

Of course, the credulity of their intended audience is nearly as great as their believability is miniscule.

[dan/california]

26 minutes ago, Cederic said:

Not good:

Ok, either they're planning something or they really do think Ukraine are.

But..

Ok, they're planning something.

 

 

Very not good, but if they have rigged the place to blow then even a full up NATO operation probably can't stop it at this point. Maybe the night crew will have the intestinal fortitude to drop the control rods and start cooling the thing down. I realize that is a big ask since the Russians very well might torture them to death. And yes I realize it takes more than a day to do a complete shutdown. But the Russians doing something spectacularly stupid might be a little less bad if they process was at least started. Is our resident ex airborne expert around by any chance? I guess with his resume there is a non zero chance he is Poland ACTUALLY figuring out what to do if the Russians are this stupid. I mean besides NATO joining the war and sending the Russians home alive or otherwise.

[sburke]

28 minutes ago, akd said:

Looks like the fire there is spreading nicely:

 

The tobacco industry has a lot to answer for!!!

 

[Battlefront.com]

I don't think anybody has called attention to the significance of Ukrainian infantry being trained, in large numbers, in the UK (and possibly other places):

It costs a lot more to train Ukrainian soldiers in the UK than it does in Ukraine.  It seems the Russian attacks on Ukrainian training centers are significant enough that relocation was deemed necessary.

Steve

[sburke]

1 minute ago, dan/california said:

Very not good, but if they have rigged the place to blow then even a full up NATO operation probably can't stop it at this point. Maybe the night crew will have the intestinal fortitude to drop the control rods and start cooling the thing down. I realize that is a big ask since the Russians very well might torture them to death. And yes I realize it takes more than a day to do a complete shutdown. But the Russians doing something spectacularly stupid might be a little less bad if they process was at least started. Is our resident ex airborne expert around by any chance? I guess with his resume there is a non zero chance he is Poland ACTUALLY figuring out what to do if the Russians are this stupid. I mean besides NATO joining the war and sending the Russians home alive or otherwise.

doubtful they are planning anything like that if they intend to tie it into their power grid.

[dan/california]

4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I don't think anybody has called attention to the significance of Ukrainian infantry being trained, in large numbers, in the UK (and possibly other places):

It costs a lot more to train Ukrainian soldiers in the UK than it does in Ukraine.  It seems the Russian attacks on Ukrainian training centers are significant enough that relocation was deemed necessary.

Steve

Expensive, but not nearly as expensive as the political hit of getting a bunch of the trainers killed.

[Letter from Prague]

Wow, the mortar crew is really busy lately