How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[sburke]

damn this is the guy for this moment.

Zelenskiy tells officials to stop talking about Ukraine's tactics (msn.com)

[Battlefront.com]

Don't remember if anybody posted Munz's August 11th missive:

https://wartranslated.com/lpr-blogger-and-volunteer-murz-on-why-the-russian-advance-in-the-donbass-is-so-slow/

What is saying is that the slowness of their offensive in the Donbas is the result of not having air superiority due to good Ukrainian air defenses.  As a result they have to instead rely upon artillery.  Which, as he points out, is difficult to manage for a variety of reasons.  It is also under threat of Ukrainian artillery.

Artillery crews become more experienced as the war goes on.  They are in the rear so they aren't usually killed or lose their equipment unless there's a larger encirclement and they are destroyed or forced to be abandoned.  Short of that, the enemy's artillery will live to fight another day complete with the experience gained the previous day and its equipment.  This, in turn, wears out LDPR's infantry.  And without infantry, it can't hope to conduct encirclements.

Russia, he points out, has only managed to encircle forces in Mariupol.  Other than that, nothing.  So while Ukraine has lost a lot of its skilled infantry, it has not lost its artillery.  Worse, it's been getting better because it survives from one battle to the next with its equipment intact.

He ends by saying that LDPR is out of soldiers.  Even scrapping the bottom of the barrel isn't producing results any more.  So the only way this is going to change is if Russia conducts large encirclements, yet it also doesn't seem capable of it.  He even asks "By the way, where are they?"

----

There's lots of stuff to take away from this.  He's basically saying that unless Russia sweeps in and finally conducts some major encircling operations, the frontlines will not advance quickly (if at all).  Since Russia was not able to do such things with much larger and better equipped forces than it has now, well... Munz better get used to not having much good to report in his future blogging.  And I think that is exactly what he is laying the groundwork for.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Calling @The_Capt.  Evidence of strategic messaging and hints of how effective it was upon the intended audience...

This brings up an unusually under discussed topic here and almost never talked about elsewhere... the prospect of DPR and/or LPR seeking a separate peace with Ukraine.  Overtly or even covertly.

If the Russian government collapses (surrenders, pulls out troops, coup and internal chaos, etc.) you can bet that the DLPR will be quite anxious to get back with Ukraine in some way.  They need a patron to survive.  They know that, Ukraine knows that.  Count on something happening pretty quickly if Russia is no longer fighting this war.

But what happens the war continues and DLPR feels it is suffering too much because of it?  What if Ukraine starts to counter attack and push DLPR back and Russia can't do a damned thing to stop them?  Might the leadership of DLPR recognize their negotiating position becomes weaker with each passing day?  Might they also start to understand that Russia doesn't have the resources to keep going and that they will prioritize Russian needs first?  And maybe they'll finally realize that THIS is a major reason why Russia never formally annexed DLPR even after February 2022?

It will be interesting to see what happens once Russia starts to show obvious signs defeat is not all that far away.  DLPR will not likely want to go down with the ship, yet they can't fend for themselves.  Defecting is not out of the question.

Steve

[Calamine Waffles]

I was looking at Flightradar24 around the time of the strike, and the only NATO aircraft near the area around the time of the strike were a KC-135 (HOBO20), USMC F/A-18 (AE22L, I assume flying CAP for the other aircraft), and a P-3C Orion (AA33), as well as a US Army HH-60M (appears to have landed sometime before the attack)

The Global Hawk FORTE10 was there in the Black Sea earlier, but it bugged out about 6 hours before the strike (3:20 pm Sevastopol time (UTC+3))

At around 5 minutes before the strike, the F/A-18 and KC-135 pulled back a bit, while the P-3C stayed in its patrol.

Probably just a coincidence, but it seems like the strike, whatever was used to do it, occurred at around the time the P-3C was on the part of its circuit taking it closest to Sevastopol, while the KC-135 and F/A-18 had retreated a bit (possible they are refueling?).

 

Edited August 12, 2022 by Calamine Waffles

[chrisl]

31 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

I was looking at Flightradar24 around the time of the strike, and the only NATO aircraft near the area around the time of the strike were a KC-135 (HOBO20), USMC F/A-18 (AE22L, I assume flying CAP for the other aircraft), and a P-3C Orion (AA33), as well as a US Army HH-60M (appears to have landed sometime before the attack)

The Global Hawk FORTE10 was there in the Black Sea earlier, but it bugged out about 6 hours before the strike (3:20 pm Sevastopol time (UTC+3))
At around 5 minutes before the strike, the F/A-18 and KC-135 pulled back a bit, while the P-3C stayed in its patrol.

Probably just a coincidence, but it seems like the strike, whatever was used to do it, occurred at around the time the P-3C was on the part of its circuit taking it closest to Sevastopol, while the KC-135 and F/A-18 had retreated a bit (possible they are refueling?).

 

 

FWIW, not all NATO military aircraft transmit ADS-B. Some may not be capable of it and most, if not all, can switch it off.  In the past I've had two pairs of CA National Guard fighters circling my neighborhood waiting to do an event flyover and I'll only see one beacon, and it won't give anything but position.  That's even with the pairs not flying close together, but separate circles. Most of the military flyovers transmit something, but not all.  And that's in a completely peacetime southern california (I've had some interesting flyovers).  

From watching ADSBExchange.com, there seem to generally be too many air tankers flying around the UKR border relative to the number of things that there are to refuel.  Occasionally I'll see something line up and they'll circle together, but usually you don't see who's getting topped off, just the tanker.  Along the UKR border they're only going to have it on if they want to be seen, otherwise you need to be there with binoculars to know who's really there.

Edited August 12, 2022 by chrisl

[Calamine Waffles]

Yeah, I know they won't have the transponder on a lot of the time for this kind of mission. I just found the flight pattern interesting.

[CAZmaj]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/u-s-air-division-sent-to-europe-after-kremlin-says-russia-nato-at-war/ar-AA10yBl5?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=889a510a909f4c849c95e2ff73bad6f4

U.S. Air Division Sent to Europe After Kremlin Says Russia, NATO at War

Edited August 12, 2022 by CAZmaj

[chrisl]

5 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

Yeah, I know they won't have the transponder on a lot of the time for this kind of mission. I just found the flight pattern interesting.

There are definitely some interesting flights.  There's a pair of King Airs that tend to cruise the Kaliningrad border together.  One's a Guardrail series that looks like the aircraft version of Pinhead from Hellraiser, but the other one just comes up as a vanilla King Air.  And they're always together.

[Calamine Waffles]

Reminds me, about 20 minutes after the attack, this US Army Beechcraft C-12 left Constanta for Wiesbaden

Edited August 12, 2022 by Calamine Waffles

[Grigb]

Agent Murz reports about lack ERA issue.

It is big, so I translated the most relevant part. It is an explanation why RU tanks often lack ER. Summary - ERA is explosive stuff that needs to be stored in secure proper conditions. For RU army tanks commanders getting them from storage and putting them on tanks in timely manner is huge issue.

Quote

But... let's not slide off the topic of ERA. Why is this SUCH a problem. Why there is no plastic [explosives] in containers. The answer is simple – “Because it's plastic” [explosives].

Firstly, these plates, which, when detonated during a hit, destroy the cumulative jet of a cumulative projectile or reduce the effectiveness of the “crowbar” [RU nickname for APFSDS rod]  of an armor-piercing projectile, if memory serves me correctly, have an expiration date of around 10 years from the date of their release. This period is determined by the chemical properties of the explosive, which at such storage periods loses the properties required for proper operation. Accordingly, this is also why containers for them are made on old tanks (where there is a dynamic protection “Contact-1”) dismountable, and on more modern machines - built–in, but also with opening. So that the replacement of plates “due age” is not a problem. But these plates spend 99% of their time not on tanks, but in warehouses, [just] because…

Secondly, it is plastic. Explosives.  A miles non sapiens [aka] dumb soldier can remove without much difficulty from a metal package and apply without a command in an irregular way or sell-give-bet to someone who will use it in this way. And this is a few hundred kilos for each tank to summarize it all. Accordingly, like all kinds of other weapons-ammunition, it should all be “under lock and seal” in peacetime. That's where it is. And if, when the army is alerted, the commanders of tank or moto-rifle  units do not care about this issue, happens  what is described in Igor's “Carousel” [book about Grozy assault and lack of ERA in RU tanks] or what happened near Sanzharovka in 2015 [RU tanks platoon without infantry tried to overrun UKR defensive position and was destroyed by RPG from short range]. Tanks and tankers are dying en masse, being helpless even against conventional RPG-7.

Because there is a rush, because there is not enough transport, people, time... and a hundred more reasons, including the fact that filling 200+ containers of dynamic protection “Kontakt-1” with plates on a T-72 or T-64 tank is almost a full day job for the crew. The process, of course, can be accelerated if there is the necessary number of keys for one crew member to unscrew the containers, the second to tighten, and the commander, respectively, to properly assemble them before tightening.

I happened to do this in practice when in the summer of 2015 we "dressed" the initially “bald” T-64A of the August battalion communications platoon in Kontakt-1, which the two-headed monster [very competent] Pal Kirillich finally brought to running and combat condition. And Rembat [REME] welded threaded bonks on them for containers, and they brought us boxes with these containers, and we started screwing them. Of course, without plates inside. Because it was “peacetime" again and they had to "bring it later"...

Decades pass, and the professionalism of professionals is still the same. “They will be later, now go like this.” “Is 45 tons of armor not enough for you?”. And on, on, on… Debaltseve showed all their professionalism very clearly, because after the summer defeats of 2014, a more or less sane and motivated contingent was drafted into the Ukrainian army, and an enemy with some kind of non-zero combat capability stood up against us. Seven years later, in February-March of this year, everyone repeated, as they say, “encore". Having lost hundreds of the most modern tanks and other armor. Humiliatingly senseless and stupidly lost. Not to mention what happened to the tankmen of the Republics, in which, by the beginning of their war, the full combat capability of at least a quarter of the vehicles and crews was an excellent indicator for a tank battalion, unattainable by most of the [other] tank battalions of the LPR and DPR NM. This is not a military secret, it is already a publicly available fact, unfortunately, captured by a huge number of photos and videos.

 

[Taranis]

To sum-up the rubber ERA tank is probably a previously captured and canibalized one
 

 

[Calamine Waffles]

Impossible, the super brains on Twitter have been telling me it's the new ingenious Russian NERA.

[Battlefront.com]

14 minutes ago, Grigb said:

It is big, so I translated the most relevant part. It is an explanation why RU tanks often lack ER. Summary - ERA is explosive stuff that needs to be stored in secure proper conditions. For RU army tanks commanders getting them from storage and putting them on tanks in timely manner is huge issue.

I call BS on this his explanation.

Sure, I can see how the tanks shipped off to Belarus and to "training" grounds around Belgorod and in Crimea might have had less of their ERA properly installed due to the general poor planning of the war.  It boggles the mind due to the fact that the higher ups knew the war was coming and should have made installation of ERA part of the exercise.  OK, but putting that aside... how many months has it been since the war started?  How many tanks have been lost?  I don't see how there's any reasonable excuse, even by Russian standards, for ERA to be missing other than it was stolen or they ran out of it.

Let's also keep in mind that there is a lot of evidence that Russian tanks do have ERA.  Proportions?  I have no idea, but the video from a couple of pages ago where Ukraine smacked a T-72 with a Javelin is clear evidence.  The turret ERA did what it was supposed to do and it saved the tank from complete destruction.  Seems the gunner and commander were killed, but the tank was still driven a few hundred meters before the driver hopped out and ran away (presumably before the ammo cooked off).  If ERA had not been there I think it is more than likely the tank would have been hollowed out.

This is part of the problem with many counter measures we've seen used in Ukraine by both sides.  It's not that they don't work, it's that they don't work well enough to matter in the long term. Saving a tank from catastrophic explosion at time of impact doesn't really matter if the crew is killed and it blows up soon after.  Seen probably a hundred videos confirming this fact.

Steve

[Grigb]

Agent Murz reports about reason the current operations are slow.

It is bit to long and not very interesting. Summary - due to UKR Air Defenses, including MANPADs, RU aviation cannot hang over enemy frontline and destroy his arty and supply vehicles (as you can see, they believed their WW2 idea of Shurmovik works just because... When they figured out it does not work, they become stuck). So, they have to rely on arty and abandon encirclement operations using frontal slow pushes instead. 

However, I translated the most relevant part for us - state of manpower now in LDPR [I am slowly switching to western abbreviation instead RU LDNR abbreviation I get used to)

Quote

The interim result of the "exchange" [of lifes of soldiers in battles] can be traced by the results of the next flow of mobilization in the LPR and DPR.

In the LPR recently, I don't remember whether I have already written about it, they began to take emergency ambulance drivers into the army. The cost of a "piece of paper protecting from the army" jumped to 100 thousand rubles.

In the DPR, a dozen and a half "replenishment" people were sent to one of the units, of which two turned out to be fit, normal soldiers for infantry health. TWO. Some of those sent were from convalescents, still with spokes in wounded limbs. One of the "recruiters" was taken from the "durka" [mental asylum], as soon as it turned out, he was sent back to the "durka".

So, citizens of the RU [that ae] "military bloggers" who have been waiting for  "The main event of August-September of this year - the offensive of Allied Forces on Slavyansk and Kramatorsk" for a month, let it go. If it is happens, then only by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. and they are, by the way, where?

ZHDUN.JPG [Homunculus loxodontus is RU meme of eternally waiting person]

 

[Grigb]

5 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I call BS on this his explanation.

Sure, I can see how the tanks shipped off to Belarus and to "training" grounds around Belgorod and in Crimea might have had less of their ERA properly installed due to the general poor planning of the war.  It boggles the mind due to the fact that the higher ups knew the war was coming and should have made installation of ERA part of the exercise.  OK, but putting that aside... how many months has it been since the war started?  How many tanks have been lost?  I don't see how there's any reasonable excuse, even by Russian standards, for ERA to be missing other than it was stolen or they ran out of it.

Let's also keep in mind that there is a lot of evidence that Russian tanks do have ERA.  Proportions?  I have no idea, but the video from a couple of pages ago where Ukraine smacked a T-72 with a Javelin is clear evidence.  The turret ERA did what it was supposed to do and it saved the tank from complete destruction.  Seems the gunner and commander were killed, but the tank was still driven a few hundred meters before the driver hopped out and ran away (presumably before the ammo cooked off).  If ERA had not been there I think it is more than likely the tank would have been hollowed out.

This is part of the problem with many counter measures we've seen used in Ukraine by both sides.  It's not that they don't work, it's that they don't work well enough to matter in the long term. Saving a tank from catastrophic explosion at time of impact doesn't really matter if the crew is killed and it blows up soon after.  Seen probably a hundred videos confirming this fact.

Steve

It is more like both explanations are correct. In units with competent commanders they have ERAs. In units with incompetent commanders, they still do not have ERAs. 

And you are right ERA is not wonder protection RU claims it to be. Especially for RU/SU tanks that are notoriously bad survivability wise. Look at this T-72B/B3 plate that is supposed to protect ammo carousel from debris of frontal hits. 

It is not very big and made of aluminum not steel. 

[mosuri]

11 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Yup. Whole idea is right, but impractical from many reasons, including dozens of possible ways to circumvent it by other countries. If introduced, it could undercut Russian support for the war among higher-middle class, though; "normal" Russians feel almost zero real pressure to do something about the war now. And situations when they travel to middle of Europe and bully Ukrainian refugees there are disguisting. This or other way, something should be done about it.

Someone floated the idea that visa fees for Russians should be significantly increased, the extra money sent to Ukraine, and applicants be made aware of the fact. Would not stop anyone from applying but could keep the worst RU nats inside Russia...

[Calamine Waffles]

50 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Let's also keep in mind that there is a lot of evidence that Russian tanks do have ERA.  Proportions?  I have no idea, but the video from a couple of pages ago where Ukraine smacked a T-72 with a Javelin is clear evidence.  The turret ERA did what it was supposed to do and it saved the tank from complete destruction.  Seems the gunner and commander were killed, but the tank was still driven a few hundred meters before the driver hopped out and ran away (presumably before the ammo cooked off).  If ERA had not been there I think it is more than likely the tank would have been hollowed out.

Well, no, no ERA will save you from a direct hit by a Javelin to the turret, it has enough penetration to get through the thin turret roof even with Kontakt-5 on top (usually rated as at least 800 mm of RHA).

The thing is that you have to remember that the autoloader carousel on the T-72 is on the bottom of the hull, so in order to detonate it with a Javelin the penetrator formed by the shaped charge has to actually strike the ammunition. Hitting a tank from the top center mass usually means you're more likely to hit the gun breech, and if it misses, there's also the crew next to the gun. So it's not so much the ERA working as there just being a lot of stuff in the way of the autoloader carousel.

[Grigb]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Calling @The_Capt.  Evidence of strategic messaging and hints of how effective it was upon the intended audience...

This brings up an unusually under discussed topic here and almost never talked about elsewhere... the prospect of DPR and/or LPR seeking a separate peace with Ukraine.  Overtly or even covertly.

If the Russian government collapses (surrenders, pulls out troops, coup and internal chaos, etc.) you can bet that the DLPR will be quite anxious to get back with Ukraine in some way.  They need a patron to survive.  They know that, Ukraine knows that.  Count on something happening pretty quickly if Russia is no longer fighting this war.

But what happens the war continues and DLPR feels it is suffering too much because of it?  What if Ukraine starts to counter attack and push DLPR back and Russia can't do a damned thing to stop them?  Might the leadership of DLPR recognize their negotiating position becomes weaker with each passing day?  Might they also start to understand that Russia doesn't have the resources to keep going and that they will prioritize Russian needs first?  And maybe they'll finally realize that THIS is a major reason why Russia never formally annexed DLPR even after February 2022?

It will be interesting to see what happens once Russia starts to show obvious signs defeat is not all that far away.  DLPR will not likely want to go down with the ship, yet they can't fend for themselves.  Defecting is not out of the question.

Steve

The intercept is very interesting. Dmitri translation is very good but inevitably it was softened somewhat. In RU it is bad. I mean like very bad. They are extremely disappointed with RU. It is sound like they are at the point when you consider bailing out of a derailing train. 

 

[Taranis]

Fire near Liubymivka of Kakhovka district (Kherson area)

 

[poesel]

10 hours ago, akd said:

It’s Moldova, not Ukraine.

? Transnistria is in between Moldova and Ukraine.

 

9 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Several shoddy batalions of conscripts commanded by offcers married to local women. Not worth it. Even Bielarussians pose much greater threat now.

I think rather about the symbolic value. Russia wants to incorporate Transnistria and Ukraine can take that away.

Maybe because it is such an easy goal, Ukraine has saved that for an opportune moment when they need or want to demoralize the Russians a bit more.

[FancyCat]

28 minutes ago, mosuri said:

Someone floated the idea that visa fees for Russians should be significantly increased, the extra money sent to Ukraine, and applicants be made aware of the fact. Would not stop anyone from applying but could keep the worst RU nats inside Russia...

I recall a speech by Putin preinvasion where if I was reading a correct analysis of it, Russians who live in the west and adopt anti-Russian positions are traitors, but as long as your mentally for Russia and against the west, your fine, feel free to live there, stash your riches, enjoy the beaches. Couple that and the fact every single Russian elite and aspiring seems to have a house or more in Europe, and the bank accounts to go with it....and how much they are complaining about being banned....I feel like paying some minor fee won't have much a effect or deterence at all on visitors.

 

19 minutes ago, Grigb said:

The intercept is very interesting. Dmitri translation is very good but inevitably it was softened somewhat. In RU it is bad. I mean like very bad. They are extremely disappointed with RU. It is sound like they are at the point when you consider bailing out of a derailing train. 

 

I know nothing but if I were Russian, I would probably feel pretty safe in Russia largely, without much or any worry of invasion or war actually approaching my home or family. I dare say the environment in the puppet regimes, the programming has been intense as any in Russia? Sure if I'm Russian, maybe I'm shocked at the images from Crimea, but that's not my house getting bombed anytime soon.

If I'm a citizen of the republics, I assume the programming is largely the same, Russian victory was guaranteed? Ukraine would fall, fascism destroyed, the republics entering a golden age, etc?

Crimea, that must be some hard whiplash, not withstanding the himar effect all over the capitals and some impending effect of war spreading to engulf civilians in the republics much like that in the recently occupied zones.

Russia looks pretty dead on bottom up resistance to war. Any chance the republics civilians can muster some sort of protests, civil unrest to bring peace?  Negotiations? Is that even possible?

[Calamine Waffles]

I don't know, in the event of a Ukrainian invasion of Transnistria you'd probably get a lot of bad faith accusations of "oh look, Ukrainians are attacking another country, see, they're not so innocent, they're just like the Russians" etc., etc.

Not worth the bad PR at this time, I think

Edited August 12, 2022 by Calamine Waffles

[Zeleban]

10 minutes ago, poesel said:

? Transnistria is in between Moldova and Ukraine.

 

I think rather about the symbolic value. Russia wants to incorporate Transnistria and Ukraine can take that away.

Maybe because it is such an easy goal, Ukraine has saved that for an opportune moment when they need or want to demoralize the Russians a bit more.

Officially, Transnistria is part of Moldova. Ukraine's invasion of Moldova does not sound very realistic. Unless if Moldova officially asks Ukraine to send troops to Transnistria...

Edited August 12, 2022 by Zeleban

[Grigb]

1 hour ago, Taranis said:

To sum-up the rubber ERA tank is probably a previously captured and canibalized one
 

 

This is RU propaganda. I am not sure the guy is being paid but he says word for word what RU propagandists said. The facts are the following:

• The tank was captured by UKR in March and nobody said otherwise.
• Nobody said RU used rubber instead of explosives. It is obvious they are part of ERA bricks. 
• UKR did not cannibalize ERAs explosive because you cannibalized them together with rubber plates. Rubber plates indicate they were untouched by UKR.
• UKR tanker explicitly confirmed they were empty when captured
• Murz confirmed that lack of explosives in ERA block does happen often in RU army.

 

[Calamine Waffles]

1 minute ago, Grigb said:

This is RU propaganda. I am not sure the guy is being paid but he says word for word what RU propagandists said. The facts are the following:

• The tank was captured by UKR in March and nobody said otherwise.
• Nobody said RU used rubber instead of explosives. It is obvious they are part of ERA bricks. 
• UKR did not cannibalize ERAs explosive because you cannibalized them together with rubber plates. Rubber plates indicate they were untouched by UKR.
• UKR tanker explicitly confirmed they were empty when captured
• Murz confirmed that lack of explosives in ERA block does happen often in RU army.

 

Oh, it's RedEffect, he was posting in the lead-up to the war things like how Ukrainian tanks are much inferior to Russian ones based on a direct tank vs. tank fight etc.

I don't think he's a Russian propagandist, though, because he has put up videos like this. The problem is he mostly takes the Russian statements etc. at face value.