How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

How important is Pisky? Or not important at all?

It's fortified village (or rather remnants of village) that was fought hard since 2014. It is basically Donetsk outskirts, touching local airport so make it unable to be captured by separs. Defence of close-by terminal was legendary because of "Cybrogs".

Pisky itself is eastern-most town along E50 leading West. There are probably many more fortified defence lines behind, so loosing it is necessary inherently tragic for Ukrainians. It is much more important for DPR though, since it was always thorn in their back.

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

Evening Map time. It is a bit complicated but that is because it has a lot more info than before. There could be mistakes as I am very tired right now - RU Nats seems to get wind of good news and jumped back to RU offensive topic.

That is one great map there, really detailed.

I wonder why Ukrianians did not have support of artillery in this fight. Those 2 mortars, if true, seem awfully small support for such important place.

Edited August 3, 2022 by Beleg85

[Calamine Waffles]

Lack of ammo/assets.

[Battlefront.com]

Today's ISW report had some interesting stuff about Kherson.  In brief:

• Russians launched two attacks in the north and were defeated
• Ukraine took back 7 unspecified settlements
• Something huge blew up in Kherson and at least two more ammo dumps in the north went boom
• First mention I've seen of US loitering munitions (Phoenix Ghost) being used
• Russia continues to have significant headaches trying to administer Kherson and fake support for Russian occupation

And this:

Quote

The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command noted that there have not been any changes to the Russian force composition in Kherson Oblast as of August 2, however.

Interesting.  According to this all those reinforcements we've seen evidence of, either videos or reports, don't appear to be going into Kherson.

What I am getting from this is that Ukraine is slowly constricting Russian positions and eliminating immediate sources of resupply.  Russians aren't reinforcing and therefore can't do much offensively, as was just demonstrated.  This is a situation that Ukraine does NOT need to rush from a military standpoint.  From a humanitarian standpoint, every hour that Ukraine doesn't retake a settlement is an hour longer Russia has to murder, rape, torture, and otherwise terrorize the people there.  I do not envy Ukraine's military leadership who have to balance the need for military caution with the knowledge of Russian atrocities going unchallenged.

Steve

[OldSarge]

3 hours ago, JonS said:

Wars begin when you will, but they do not end when you please. – Niccolò Machiavelli

 
It is always easy to begin a war, but very difficult to stop one.
-- Gaius Sallustius Crispus

I see your Machiavelli and raise you Sallust.

[Battlefront.com]

My take on Russia's activities since the "operational pause" and where it is headed...

It seems to me that Russia has abandoned any serious thought of being able to drive into Donetsk Oblast from either the north (Izyum) or the south (west of Donetsk City).  They've been trying this for months and months now just about zero progress has been made.  With Russian logistics being what they are, and perhaps constraints on artillery (worn out tubes, ammo restrictions, untrained crews, etc.) becoming a factor, it seems they still can only keep one major operation going at a time.

Since the only thing that has worked for Russia since the failed Easter offensive has been bloody frontal assaults that rely upon massive amounts of artillery, that is what seems to be Russia's plan for the rest of the summer.  Specifically moving the frontline westward between Donetsk City to Siverskyi Donets.  Doing so successfully would give Putin the meaningless (in anything other than a propaganda sense) Donetsk political boundary under his control.

From where I sit it looks like Russia's strategic plan for the next few months is:

1. bloody frontal assault westward to take the rest of Donetsk Oblast.  This is the main effort and, judging by Russia's capabilities, the only effort it can do at one time
2. use small scale attacks and artillery to keep Ukrainian forces from retaking terrain
3. figure out a way to keep Kherson from becoming a humiliating defeat
4. reinforcing the rather thinly held Zaporizhzhia-Donetsk front to make sure no ground is lost there either
5. general terror strikes on civilian targets throughout Ukraine
6. bulk up defenses in/around Crimea in anticipation of Ukraine eventually having the ability to strike there

I'm thinking that Russia is looking to achieve all of this before the mud and winter seasons settles in and keep the status quo until next campaign season.  I'd be surprised if they think they really can get Ukraine to give them a favorable cease fire deal, so this plan works with or without one.

I think Ukraine's military goals are pretty much the mirror reflection of what Russia is trying to do.  However, I think their emphasis is different.  Dealing a major blow in Kherson seems to be more important than holding every inch of terrain in Donetsk Oblast, but it also can't let Russia achieve any sort of significant breakthrough there.

If I were Ukraine I'd want to make sure Kherson is wrapped up before the end of the summer campaign season and that Russian forces in the south are generally under more direct pressure than they are right now.

Anyhoo, this is just me trying to make sense of where the day-to-day fighting is headed for the next few months.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

46 minutes ago, OldSarge said:

 
It is always easy to begin a war, but very difficult to stop one.
-- Gaius Sallustius Crispus

I see your Machiavelli and raise you Sallust.

"Don't take food for your plate if you aren't going to finish eating it"
-- Moms everywhere

I think we're done here.

<mic drop>

Steve

[danfrodo]

I agree w Steve on Kherson -- the risk of doing it slow and steady is what happens to the civilians.  starving RU troops just means they'll break down every door looking for food.  Tough, tough decisions ahead.  

UKR also in need of a more obvious victory.  Most folks here know that every day that bleeds RU army is a victory, but UKR could use a nice boost all the same.  Something to shatter Putin's illusions, something that even the generally brainwashed RU populace will not be able to ignore.  And Kherson seems to be the best candidate.

[Grigb]

5 hours ago, FancyCat said:

How important is Pisky? Or not important at all?

Apart from what @Beleg85 said I believe RU want to capture it to outflank UKR defensive positions in Avdyivka. AFAIR DefMon wrote that they are trying to make left hook to create pocket in Avdyivka.

So, it is important but not critical. 

[Grigb]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

My take on Russia's activities since the "operational pause" and where it is headed...

It seems to me that Russia has abandoned any serious thought of being able to drive into Donetsk Oblast from either the north (Izyum) or the south (west of Donetsk City).  They've been trying this for months and months now just about zero progress has been made.  With Russian logistics being what they are, and perhaps constraints on artillery (worn out tubes, ammo restrictions, untrained crews, etc.) becoming a factor, it seems they still can only keep one major operation going at a time.

Would like to add that I as surprised that RU as not able to take Pisky completely given their arty superiority. Well, today Tatarsky admitted that they do not have infantry to exploit arty successes. So, manpower issue is acute as well.

[Grigb]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Interesting.  According to this all those reinforcements we've seen evidence of, either videos or reports, don't appear to be going into Kherson.

Well, they either going to Zaporozhe direction as per @Haiduk or to... Belarus. A few days ago I watched some parts of an interview with UKR I think journalist turned to UKR specnaz or something. He said that according to talks of their intelligence guys they expect another strike from Belarus. The reasoning is the following:

• Putin needs leverage to pressure Zelensky and West into a peace deal.
• Missile terror did not work so he needs something more scary
• That leverage is a threat to Kiev - by advancing to Kiev and encircling it (or attempting to do it) Putin creates critical leverage that is scary to both Zelensky and West
• As per claim of their intelligence guys Belarus forces are already taken over by RU. They are RU in different uniform
• The scenario is as follows - Putin is waiting till RU forces capture the rest of LDNR territory to declare that the first part of SMO (defending LDNR republics) is finished, time for the second part - Denazification and Demilitarization and then strike to Kiev
• Timeframe beginning of September if UKR does not strike first around middle of August

Crazy plan but RU is RU. If it did not work the first time, try it ten more times.

Edited August 3, 2022 by Grigb

[Grigb]

Regarding importance of Pisky I would like to show another map. On the right is DefMon map.

They could not make left hook between Pisky and Avdyivka - they would be hammered from both Avdyivka and Pisky direction. So, most likely they want to anchor their hook in Pisky and then wheel to the right to completely surround Avdyivka (there are claims they already captured east and north approaches but have no additional progress).

So, it is important but not critical - as long as Pisky stands RU cannot hope to fully encircle Avdyivka. And without encircling they cannot hope to take Avdyivka. After capturing Pisky they can start encircling Avdyivka but it is still not sure thing.

[G.I. Joe]

10 hours ago, sburke said:

which makes this bit of news really funny.

Russian Ships Transit Tsushima Strait, Continue to Circle Japan - USNI News

Yep. Probably best not hold shows of force in places that remind people of your most devastating defeat...

[Grigb]

Small situation update:

According to UKR Donnik the difficult situation in Pisky with artillery is actually widespread:

Quote

• There are problems with ammo
• There are problems with the resource of Soviet caliber tubes (nowhere to take them from)
• 777 is priority target for RU (use Orlans then saturate area with to full volleys of MLRS)
• Artillery superiority is the main advantage of RU and UKR suffers serious losses for any ground hold or taken
• Hitting warehouses is UKR main way to ease the pressure on the frontline

 

Girkin fresh assessment

Quote

Fierce fighting continues on the Donetsk front - our troops are "gnawing through" the long-term defense of the enemy. According to unconfirmed reports, about 2/3 of the Marinka was liberated as of yesterday evening, and the advance in the Pisky continued.

The enemy is bombarded with shells, but the infantry still has to put a "dot" [to finish the process of capturing]. Naturally, there are losses, but their ratio to the enemy's losses allows us to feel some optimism: compared with the assault on Mariupol, there is undoubted progress (the defending enemy loses people many times more than our attacking units), which indicates an increased level of general command and training of gunners.

Marinka is Maryinka on my map (Southwest from Donetsk). RU claimed it was almost captured on 1 of Aug. And Girkin report is unconfirmed, so it seems like Pisky UKR are still contesting Maryinka so far.

Regarding Girkin assessment of RU artillery - it is not improved arty skill but better availability of skilled drone operators (with commercial drones). This is the result of RU Nats  volunteers program of spreading the drone skills and knowledge.

Tatarsky (propagandist and commercial drone operator fighting there) reply to Girkin

Quote

I will allow myself to correct Igor Ivanovich a little. It's not that the gunners' training has increased, it's just that now they see where their shells fall. Because if there were some UAVs from the DPR side during the assault on Mariupol, especially in the OBTF ["Operational-combat tactical formation", created on the basis of the Internal Troops of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the DPR. Sort of DPR Speznas], then the 68th regiment, the 810th brigade and the 105th, 102nd regiments of the 150th Division of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation were advancing literally blindly.

This is why they are doing what they are doing (frontal attack on UKR defensive line) - they do not have ability to do anything else except blasting UKR from objectives with arty and then occupy with maigre forces.  But their ability to blast objective to pieces got significantly improved and currently gives them edge.

I was talking of RU Nat volunteers overall danger (and their drone program in particular) for a long time. These are dangerous guys, and we should not underestimate their danger. If they can improve RU regulars, then they can improve a lot of bad guys and cause a lot of issues everywhere else.

Oh, well being amateur armchair warrior guy, who is able to talks only with you guys, has certain disadvantages.  I hope The Company and The Circus keep track of them. 

Edited August 3, 2022 by Grigb

[Grigb]

Now let's discuss what can be done relatively quickly to mitigate RU current edge.

Few disadvantages of RU

• Lack of infantry (they cannot sustain casualties from shelling)
• No CB radar, reliance on Orlans and plastering area with MLRS

So, UKR needs something:

• to shell advancing RU infantry to force it break the assault
• It has to be resilient to MLRS strikes.
• On top of that ammo must be cheap and allow quick mass production.    

In my humble opinion the answer is mortar carriers.  120mm is the best, but even 82mm will do (better to hit Ivan with volley of 82mm than with harsh words). Something like this

Hit RU infantry, then move, then hit again, then move again. It will significantly spoil RU assault (as they do not have that much infantry to sustain advance under mortar fire), improve UKR infantry morale and cement frontline till other measures will make effect. 

And this is I believe is the best way to play arty ping pong in large scale conventional war - leave 155mm for CB and High and Special targets while rain torrent of 120mm mortar shells onto enemy infantry. 

Give UKR a lot of 120mm mortars with armored carriers (and commercial of the shelves drones) to substitute temporally for 777 and immediately improve UKR infantry life.  

[Taranis]

17 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Now let's discuss what can be done relatively quickly to mitigate RU current edge.

Few disadvantages of RU

• Lack of infantry (they cannot sustain casualties from shelling)
• No CB radar, reliance on Orlans and plastering area with MLRS

So, UKR needs something:

• to shell advancing RU infantry to force it break the assault
• It has to be resilient to MLRS strikes.
• On top of that ammo must be cheap and allow quick mass production.    

In my humble opinion the answer is mortar carriers.  120mm is the best, but even 82mm will do (better to hit Ivan with volley of 82mm than with harsh words). Something like this

Hit RU infantry, then move, then hit again, then move again. It will significantly spoil RU assault (as they do not have that much infantry to sustain advance under mortar fire), improve UKR infantry morale and cement frontline till other measures will make effect. 

And this is I believe is the best way to play arty ping pong in large scale conventional war - leave 155mm for CB and High and Special targets while rain torrent of 120mm mortar shells onto enemy infantry. 

Give UKR a lot of 120mm mortars with armored carriers (and commercial of the shelves drones) to substitute temporally for 777 and immediately improve UKR infantry life.  

I agree with you. Especially since the M106 and M125 are available in large numbers and many NATO countries have them. There will be a country willing to give some quickly. Could be quick to deliver (by train I guess).

In France, there is no equivalent unfortunately because the mortars (120mm) are towed by armored vehicles (VAB). Some prototypes of 120mm mortars directly mounted on VABs existed but this remained at the prototype stage because the chassis does not resist (sdkfz 251/22 is that you ? ). One of the doctrines is the RAIDART (Artillery Raid) using helicopters (in sling or mortar dismounted in the helicopter) to carry out shootings and rapid movements. The problem here will be the particularly significant vulnerability of helicopters.

[The_MonkeyKing]

Interesting to see how this can be shutdown by the Ukrainians. 

[Grigb]

14 minutes ago, Taranis said:

In France, there is no equivalent unfortunately because the mortars (120mm) are towed by armored vehicles (VAB). Some prototypes of 120mm mortars directly mounted on VABs existed but this remained at the prototype stage because the chassis does not resist (sdkfz 251/22 is that you ? ). One of the doctrines is the RAIDART (Artillery Raid) using helicopters (in sling or mortar dismounted in the helicopter) to carry out shootings and rapid movements. The problem here will be the particularly significant vulnerability of helicopters.

I like RAIDART - what's if we take RAIDART but instead of helicopters use VABs? It is slow but still, but more survivable and wheeled VABs are faster than tracked (and simpler to maintain). It would be fire teams in the rear to plug in the new hole in arty support.  RU hit Pisky and started assault - DART in to plaster RU assault at least to slow it down then get out of MLRS range. Reload and repeat. RU can shoot to pieces anything they want but RAIDARTed VAB mortars are not there while still able to provide at least some support.

[Grigb]

@Haiduk if you have any open UKR sources from frontlines in Donbass can you please tell me? litator is one. But do you know any one else?

 

[Taranis]

20 minutes ago, Grigb said:

I like RAIDART - what's if we take RAIDART but instead of helicopters use VABs? It is slow but still, but more survivable and wheeled VABs are faster than tracked (and simpler to maintain). It would be fire teams in the rear to plug in the new hole in arty support.  RU hit Pisky and started assault - DART in to plaster RU assault at least to slow it down then get out of MLRS range. Reload and repeat. RU can shoot to pieces anything they want but RAIDARTed VAB mortars are not there while still able to provide at least some support.

I don't know if that would really work. Perhaps on a large scale. The advantage is that Ukraine already has VABs.

The problem for a towed mortar like the 120mm RTF-1 is that you have to set-up and perform the orientation phase (where the mortar is relative to north) before you can fire. Without counting that it is still necessary to carry out the spotting phase on the target (FOO and adjustment of the shots). It is a type of artillery which has the advantage of being rustic so easy and fast to put in place but which precisely has the fault of being rustic (more time consumer and less precise). Throughout this period the crew and mortars are exposed to Russian attacks and their artillery. Mortars with a relatively short range are really vulnerable in particular due to the increasingly pronounced spotting by Russian drones. These dangers of counter battery (etc) are on the contrary erased with the CAESAR but this one will always be available only in too small number (approximately 75 in France).

To conclude, IMHO, I think the M113 as an SP Mortar would be better suited in this role as it would be way too risky for a towed mortar. I think that the counter battery in this type of use will probably be inevitable and that it is therefore better to have equipment that resists (moderately at least, for lack of anything better) to the latter. And then the SP mortars also gain the advantage of gun placement time and dismantling time, all without endangering the crew, saving them from disembarking

Edited August 3, 2022 by Taranis

[Taranis]

"A Ukrainian soldier sits in a car at a gas station in the eastern Ukrainian city of Sloviansk on August 2, 2022 BULENT KILIC / AFP"
* A salute for russian UAVs ? . note the image on the lower left corner of the windshield (the same as the one on my profile: Snake Island)

Edited August 3, 2022 by Taranis

[Haiduk]

Serhiy Hnezdilov, 21th separate mot.inf battalion of 56th mot.inf.brigade, who defends Pisky has written two hours ago: 

Situation in Pisky is hard, but under control. We are working. Our artillery is working! Reinforcements have arrived!

 

About Maryinka. Locals write in twitter only about shellings and heavy clashes, nothing about DPR advance deep into the town.

After the short night break in 4:00 hevavy shellings have begun. Remained inhabitants hide in basements. Despite this evacuation of civilians is continuing.

 

Edited August 3, 2022 by Haiduk

[The_MonkeyKing]

 

cool

[Haiduk]

45 minutes ago, Grigb said:

@Haiduk if you have any open UKR sources from frontlines in Donbass can you please tell me? litator is one. But do you know any one else?

 

Горлівська хунта twitter as I recall, but he on other direction of Donbas front.

Falcon_UA - the sapper, Bakhmut area

Гази-Мухамед, somewhere south of Donbas front. 

But they almost never write about current situation or write "in whole" without details.

[Haiduk]

Russians again "destroyed" HIMARS and bots are spreading this in network. But this is truck for M777

Edited August 3, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Makiivka, Donetsk oblast (occupied since 2014). Reportedly four oil tanks destroyed on the fuel base after missile strike this night