How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Grimtechnique]

16 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Where they fall down, rather badly, is in complex dense areas.  There's just too much stuff to process too quickly.  For some reason even moderately competent drivers are able to handle it, not so much AI.

Hey thought i'd jump on this point, its because the human mind is very good at ignoring stuff that isnt important to it, an ai will constantly have the streams of data and as you say become overloaded.

This all comes into the pattern recognition capability of the human mind and its capabality to on the fly 'zone out' things experience tells it is unimportant.

Just my two cents, been lurking for quite a while and thought theres something I think I have insight into. Appreciate all the analysis and info you guys are collating.

[FancyCat]

Absolute ghoul. I wish she visits Kherson. Maybe cross the bridge during HIMAR time.

 

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, poesel said:

Maybe that Kherson pocket is a trap of a different sort.
UA ‘declares’ attack on Kherson, RA moves forces there, UA cuts retreat. Now you have many good RA soldiers in that pocket that can’t be easily transferred elsewhere.

So you attack elsewhere where the forces are missing. Don’t need to (really) attack Kherson where they actually are. Very Sun-Tzuish.

For sure.  If Ukraine did nothing more than hurtle insults at the Russians in Kherson, three things are already fact:

1. there is a significant sized force that can not be deployed elsewhere without abandoning heavy equipment and creating very bad PR
2. that force needs to be supplied every single day, day in and day out, even if it doesn't do anything.  Worse (for Russia), supplying the force is more difficult to do there than anywhere else on the frontline
3. offensive activity of any importance is off the table now and for the foreseeable future

From a pure military standpoint, Ukraine is already way ahead in Kherson even if the ground situation doesn't change.  Sure, Ukraine has to keep forces in place and supplied, but the costs of doing that are far less than that of Russia and have less negative impact on Ukraine's military goals than that of Russia's.

This is good as it already is, but we know it will get even better for Ukraine because they aren't sitting around doing nothing.  Even reasonably small actions, like shelling a Russian frontline position, causes a ripple effect that Russia will increasingly find difficult to counter.

Steve

[FancyCat]

I doubt they are all collaborators or soldiers taking their goods back to Crimea, I hope Ukraine can do their best to destroy these river crossings without killing too many civilians. Also hope as many people can make it out of Kherson oblast as quickly as possible. No doubt as the noose hardens, Russia will get more and more dangerous (not that Russia isn't piling bodies already) for civilians, and more and more desperate to use them to prevent Ukrainian advances.

 

[OldSarge]

Its that time of the week again, another Perun video is out. 

 

Timestamps:
00:00 -- Opening words
01:33 -- What am I covering?
02:46 -- SPONSOR: GROUND NEWS
04:20 -- What's in a defence budget
05:56 -- People Costs
07:03 -- System Costs
09:04 -- System Sourcing
09:36 -- Example 1: Bring it in
12:29 -- Example 2: Domestic production
14:58 -- The make or buy decision
16:49 -- The hard decisions
17:58 -- Foreign Import
19:01 -- Kit Assembly
20:28 -- Licensed/local production
22:22 -- Domestic productions
23:07 -- Why not indigenise
23:28 -- Barriers to domestic production
23:56 -- Complexity and cost of entry
27:03 -- Indigenous fighter programs
29:16 -- Manufacturing scale
31:50 -- Development risks
33:59 -- Competitive advantage
36:55 -- Case Study: The US advantage
37:21 -- Dominant consumer & producer
39:59 -- Production costs
41:13 -- Scale
43:17 -- Learning curves
45:03 -- Risk mitigation
46:54 -- Accumulated advantage
49:40 -- American arms ecosystem
52:42 -- A tale of two aircrafts
55:26 -- A question for another time…
55:57 -- Conclusion
57:13 -- Channel update

Edited July 31, 2022 by OldSarge

[danfrodo]

4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

For sure.  If Ukraine did nothing more than hurtle insults at the Russians in Kherson, three things are already fact:

1. there is a significant sized force that can not be deployed elsewhere without abandoning heavy equipment and creating very bad PR
2. that force needs to be supplied every single day, day in and day out, even if it doesn't do anything.  Worse (for Russia), supplying the force is more difficult to do there than anywhere else on the frontline
3. offensive activity of any importance is off the table now and for the foreseeable future

From a pure military standpoint, Ukraine is already way ahead in Kherson even if the ground situation doesn't change.  Sure, Ukraine has to keep forces in place and supplied, but the costs of doing that are far less than that of Russia and have less negative impact on Ukraine's military goals than that of Russia's.

This is good as it already is, but we know it will get even better for Ukraine because they aren't sitting around doing nothing.  Even reasonably small actions, like shelling a Russian frontline position, causes a ripple effect that Russia will increasingly find difficult to counter.

Steve

I watched Denys Davydov video yesterday and he said RU is actually touting it's going on the offensive out of the Kherson bridgehead, which is why they kept pouring resources into it, until they suddenly couldn't.  So my theory was that Putin figured he'd use civilians as hostages to try to hold on to the right bank & Kherson.  But maybe he's actually so delusional he really thinks he could stage an offensive out there?  That would be the best thing possible, for RU forces to leave their dugouts and try to advance. 

Currently I am just so pleased that he put so much more into the kessel.  And we see pictures today of a crane on the bridge, repairs under way.  I suppose UKR is going to let them get the repairs going then hit the spot again, which would be quite demoralizing.  That crane would make a nice obstacle also. 

[Battlefront.com]

This appears to be a report from Kherson about something that happened a few days ago (Friday at least) prior to the railroad bridge damage.  According to Ukraine they HIMARS'd a Russian supply train unloading in Kherson, killing about 80 Russians and destroying 40 cars and whatever they were carrying:

https://censor.net/en/news/3357673/in_kherson_region_himars_strike_destroyed_echelon_with_enemy_equipment_and_ammunition_80_russian_soldiers

Now that so many Russian depots have been blown up, Ukraine should shift some attention to railheads.  Preferably with loaded trains just pulling up to the sidings as the missiles hit.

Steve

[dan/california]

11 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

I doubt they are all collaborators or soldiers taking their goods back to Crimea, I hope Ukraine can do their best to destroy these river crossings without killing too many civilians. Also hope as many people can make it out of Kherson oblast as quickly as possible. No doubt as the noose hardens, Russia will get more and more dangerous (not that Russia isn't piling bodies already) for civilians, and more and more desperate to use them to prevent Ukrainian advances.

 

Digging trenches there doesn't even make any military sense. If the Ukrainians are that close it is already over. I guess it could be the Chechens deploying to stop unauthorized retreats? In which case a full M270 load would just be planetary improvement.

Edited July 31, 2022 by dan/california

[Huba]

4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This appears to be a report from Kherson about something that happened a few days ago (Friday at least) prior to the railroad bridge damage.  According to Ukraine they HIMARS'd a Russian supply train unloading in Kherson, killing about 80 Russians and destroying 40 cars and whatever they were carrying:

https://censor.net/en/news/3357673/in_kherson_region_himars_strike_destroyed_echelon_with_enemy_equipment_and_ammunition_80_russian_soldiers

Now that so many Russian depots have been blown up, Ukraine should shift some attention to railheads.  Preferably with loaded trains just pulling up to the sidings as the missiles hit.

Steve

Yup! Especially for the Kherson rail bridge, it is no wonder UA wasn't in a hurry to attack it, the only single railhead in Kherson city is a death trap. Same goes for Nova Kakhovka - even with rail crossing intact, moving anything through it and trying to unload it sound like really terrible idea.

[Battlefront.com]

18 minutes ago, Grimtechnique said:

Hey thought i'd jump on this point, its because the human mind is very good at ignoring stuff that isnt important to it, an ai will constantly have the streams of data and as you say become overloaded.

This all comes into the pattern recognition capability of the human mind and its capabality to on the fly 'zone out' things experience tells it is unimportant.

Just my two cents, been lurking for quite a while and thought theres something I think I have insight into. Appreciate all the analysis and info you guys are collating.

Thanks for that.  Yes, you are correct.  Living creatures with even minimal intelligence have "intuition" that allows them to (sometimes incorrectly!) dismiss sensory information that isn't relevant to whatever is going on around it.  AIs, on the other hand, have no such luck.  They need the equivalent of "intuition" programmed into it and computing resources devoted to executing it.  Not easily done.

Here's a quick example of this.  How many times have you noticed a significant feature (house, natural object, etc.) along a routine driving route and think "huh, I never noticed that before!" or "I wonder when they built that addition?" (only to find out it was 3 years ago!) when you are uncharacteristically a passenger traveling the same route?  Happens to me all the time and I expect it happens to all of you as well.

What's going on with this?  Clearly these things are not necessary for you to go from Point A to Point B, therefore your brain doesn't spend time on them.  Intuitively you know this, but an AI requires complex logic to filter these things out successfully while not accidentally filtering out something that is possibly relevant. 

For example, House A might be something you pay attention to even though it never moves because it is close to the road and one time you saw a kid playing a bit too care free near the curb.  You intuitively associate that specific house with a potential danger and therefore as you approach it you intuitively change your behavior (drive a little slower, pay more attention to the side of the road than normal, etc.).  AIs have to be explicitly programmed to do this.

Yup, AI programing for complex chaotic environments is the worst sort of rabbit hole programming there is.  On the plus side, it's lifetime employment for the programmer

Steve

[Grigb]

23 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

I've seen sentiment asking why Kiev governmental targets aren't being destroyed for a long while. Might this Crimea attack be prepping for Russia to devastate the Kiev government district?

I dunno why Russia didn't outright attack it before, I think they should have precise missiles enough, and it's a military target.....tho the value of hardening Ukrainian resistance is probably significant.

Difficult to say. But I believe If they could they would already did it (they threatened to do it multiple times and did not do it). To decapitate UKR gov you need to know where exactly members of UKR gov are at exact time and have weapons capable of making damage there. Their targeting process is poor, and I do not believe Calibers are capable of penetrating deep enough to take out bunkers.

 

23 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

I hope Zelensky has a great bunker tho I'm sure the soviets built some good stuff for him to stay in. And I hear the Rada still meets in person? Ugh I hope security measures are still in place to keep them okay, a missile during one of their sessions would be horrible.

Yes, soviet bunkers should be good - Azov Steel caused a lot of problems for the RU. Regarding Rada I do not think it is critical for UKR or for UKR morale. UKR politics are poisoned badly by RU influence. So, as far as I understand there is not that much love for them. If they die, they die like other people. 

And anyway, AFAIR there US notifications about strikes.  

[Battlefront.com]

47 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

I've seen sentiment asking why Kiev governmental targets aren't being destroyed for a long while. Might this Crimea attack be prepping for Russia to devastate the Kiev government district?

I dunno why Russia didn't outright attack it before, I think they should have precise missiles enough, and it's a military target.....tho the value of hardening Ukrainian resistance is probably significant.

I hope Zelensky has a great bunker tho I'm sure the soviets built some good stuff for him to stay in. And I hear the Rada still meets in person? Ugh I hope security measures are still in place to keep them okay, a missile during one of their sessions would be horrible.

I've been concerned about this sort of thing as well.  Not necessarily taking out of Ukraine's government (edit, Grigb is correct that if Russia could have done it they would have already done it), but taking out the heart of historic Kyiv.

As horrible as the Russians have been, they have been decently careful to not deliberately target Ukraine's most celebrated historical structures.  Long ago I thought Russia might do a terror strike on Maidan, for example.  I'm hoping they stick with their (apparent) thinking that explicit targeting of Ukraine's highest profile cultural icons isn't a good idea.  Unfortunately, it seems that Russia is running out of ideas so going full on terrorist state is more likely today than it was any day before.

Steve

[Grigb]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

I've been concerned about this as well.  As horrible as the Russians have been, they have been decently careful to not deliberately target Ukraine's most celebrated historical structures.  Long ago I thought Russia might do a terror strike on Maidan, for example.  I'm hoping they stick with their (apparent) thinking that explicit targeting of Ukraine's highest profile cultural icons isn't a good idea.  Unfortunately, it seems that Russia is running out of ideas so going full on terrorist state is more likely today than it was any day before.

Steve

apart problems with targeting It is possible they wanted to avoid direct conflict between governments - you go for their head they will go for your head. However, as you said they are running out of options.

Recently RU hit and killed UKR rich man Vadatursky. They are getting close to UKR gov.   

[Battlefront.com]

9 hours ago, sburke said:

another morale booster a la Putin

Some wounded Russian soldiers find compensation elusive, despite Putin’s pledge | Reuters

This isn't surprising to anybody here, right?  Yup, I thought so.  Still, it's always good to get details because details matter.

What we see here is a classic example of how Russia has traditionally (including in Soviet days) maintained the pretense of a society governed by laws when, in fact, they are not.  Two classic examples of how this is applied are seen in this article:

1. bog down the individual in mountains of paperwork, ignorance, incorrect information, etc. that they give up
2. change the criteria so that the legal right applies to fewer people

This happens in democracies as well, but there are (hopefully) checks and balances to limit how far this is taken and/or to rectify the situation after attention is drawn to it.  There were a couple of very high profile examples of this playing out in the US very recently, which was a reminder of powerful weaponized bureaucracy can be.

Steve

[Grigb]

Girkin wrote two new posts. One is joking about Dimon Medvedev. Dimon promised UKR with Judgment day if they strike Crimea. UKR just stroke. So, Girkin is waiting for Hawk Dimon to deliver the promised Judgment day.

Second, is Girkin opinion regarding recent RU murder of Vadatursky. It is short so, I translated it in full.

Quote

If I understand at least a little bit about the psychology of respected Kiev partners [in reality he does not understand at all], then after the neutralization of the Nikolaev tick Vadatursky, some of our "VIPs" should have taken care of the most expensive (after money and property). In this war, "another seal is broken." No matter how much the Kremlin would like to flatter themselves with the hope that "war is war, but we are in the house" [RU kids phrase: I am in the house, means you cannot hit me] - the partners will certainly answer them a hundredfold. And ordinary people do not have to rejoice here - because it is much easier to reach us with terrorist attacks than to get some of the inhabitants of Rublevka. Although they will probably try. War, sir!

This Girki post also made me think that somebody in RU gov is trying to provoke UKR into terror response. First brutal murder of UKR POWs, now brutal murder of Vadatursky. It is like they realized death of ordinary people will not provoke terror response form UKR, so they are no trying to hit somebody in UKR political elite (they view Azov as political force).

[Grigb]

RU Nat propagandist assess RU regular commanders

Quote

...With the commanders — trouble. [There is] Lack. [of] Normal, intelligent, caring people. Battalion, regimental level — [only] single [digits]. That's the problem. You can break the Ukrainians. There is everything for this...

Competent commanders — [you can count] by the fingers.

[quote from] Alexander Khodakovsky.
Commander of the 45th brigade of the SpN Airborne Forces Hero of Russia Pankov. Personally, when [he] received the task on Gostomel, I said: "I will fly with my personnel." At the age of 54, he landed by assault! Fighters will [follow him] into a fire and water. [Still] There are very few of them.

I am silent about the [High] command, about some [of them] — I am silent twice. [If we] let them have their way, they will make full-blown Kappel attacks [Human wave attack] in the First World War… 

 

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Girkin wrote two new posts. One is joking about Dimon Medvedev. Dimon promised UKR with Judgment day if they strike Crimea. UKR just stroke. So, Girkin is waiting for Hawk Dimon to deliver the promised Judgment day.

When I first read the attack and the cancellation of Naval Day, I suspected a link.  I pondered it for a bit and now think my initial reaction was more-or-less correct that the false flag attack was used as cover for cancelling something Russia no longer has the ability to pull off.  Even if they wanted to risk having their ships in one place at one time according to a publicized schedule, I'm not sure they have the personnel to pull off such a large and scripted event.  I also doubt that Putin would want to stand with a target on his forehead all day long.  And yet, Putin could just say "we're at war so we can't do it this year" because he keeps telling people they are not at war.

The obvious solution is to cancel the event because of a heightened "terrorist threat".

5 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Second, is Girkin opinion regarding recent RU murder of Vadatursky. It is short so, I translated it in full.

Once again, Girkin is correct.  There's plenty of prominent Russians that Ukraine should now feel are legitimate targets.  All they have to do is select one that the FSB isn't already interested in murdering

5 minutes ago, Grigb said:

This Girki post also made me think that somebody in RU gov is trying to provoke UKR into terror response. First brutal murder of UKR POWs, now brutal murder of Vadatursky. It is like they realized death of ordinary people will not provoke terror response form UKR, so they are no trying to hit somebody in UKR political elite (they view Azov as political force).

This is possible, but I at present I'm seeing unconnected events.

The gruesome torture/murder videos were unlikely state sponsored events or released by Russian services.  These sorts of things have been happening since February 24th and likely filmed by the people doing them, so it was only a matter of time before they got out into the public.

The obvious murdering of Azov POWs could just be a way for Russia to "dispose" of a liability they haven't yet figured out how to deal with.  Public trials and executions don't seem to be a good idea, sending them back to Ukraine already proved a bad idea.  So what to do with them?  Quietly murdering them en mas is likely going to be discovered at some point (Katyn Forest is something Putin is well aware of).  So murdering them out in public and claiming Ukraine did it seems to be a pretty good solution.  It serves other purposes as well.

Or it could be that the murder of Azov prisoners was, as reported in some circles, a way to cover up other crimes that were at risk of being uncovered.  Financial crimes by Wagner Group, for example.

And I think the attack on Sevastopol might be an excuse to get out of doing Naval Day (see above).

As for the murder of the Ukrainian business man, this is more akin to the strikes on Odessa right after the deal is struck.  This sends a message to Ukraine and the West that if you compel Russia to compromise on one thing, they'll extract payment in some other way.  "OK, you have convinced me to sell my car.  I don't want to do it.  Shame it got 4 flat tires on its way to you.  Really bad luck.  And honestly, I have no idea how your dog was killed and wound up in the trunk.  Truly a mystery".

Steve

[FancyCat]

50 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

But maybe he's actually so delusional he really thinks he could stage an offensive out there?  That would be the best thing possible, for RU forces to leave their dugouts and try to advance. 

I believe right now Kherson oblast is contested, as in if Russia were to conduct the referendum, significant portions of the oblast are controlled by Ukraine or the ability to hold voting is blocked by active fighting, and without a ceasefire either, Russia, if it wants to legitimize the referendum, needs to push Ukraine back and regain a buffer for the region. At least that's my thinking for why Russia keeps attacking.

32 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Regarding Rada I do not think it is critical for UKR or for UKR morale. UKR politics are poisoned badly by RU influence. So, as far as I understand there is not that much love for them. If they die, they die like other people.

True...I dare say with how much Ukrainian oligarchs influence politics, I doubt there's much love for the legislature, shoot I'm sure Zelensky will become a martyr if he does die but the man did have a approval rating that convinced Putin no one would defend him before the invasion, so I doubt morale will drop in that scenario either. A resiliency is illustrated in this decapitation scenario that Putin and the Russian government certainly didn't believe existed before the invasion. Explains a lot why they felt they could do a Storm 333 operation instead of the Gulf War.

25 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

 

 

19 minutes ago, Grigb said:

 

 

[Grigb]

RU Nat propagandist complains about current RU infantry issues. Unfortunately, no link as he removed it.  

Quote

The shortage of Russian infantry

I asked the commander in the Ugledar direction today: "Which fighter by profession is most important now? Who is the most valuable? A gunner, a machine gunner, an ATGM, a gunner, an artilleryman, a grenade launcher, a sniper, a mortar man or who?".

The answer immediately: "That's it. Each in his own way. All are important, like the details of one mechanism.

... But it is the infantry that is missing now, which was killed at the beginning without care. Gazmanov's song [about honorable officers] is not about some of the [generals with] Lampasse, whom I had to deal with here during this time. Some remembered about the counterbattery only during the second [Donbass] attempt of the offensive. And only the third one [сurrent one] [CB] was originally envisaged. But it didn't really work out either. There were no artillery reconnaissance stations.

And [there is] a tendency — to send special forces and infantry, including from volunteer battalions of Russians of the latest sets, to slaughter, without appropriate support, is [still] present, and not only in our direction.

What's the use of arty without arty reconnaissance (UAVs, "Zoos", etc.)?
What's the use of intelligence if there's nothing to hit or they can't/can't?
Infantry without arty is dying in unjustified numbers. And arty without infantry, by itself, will not be able to fight. So is the armor. The ATGMs of UKR in the Ugledar direction are good. Plus on top. We're downstairs. [They] drank a lot of [our] blood."

Discussion: It looks like RU gov sent a secret directive to propagandists not to discuss HIMARS successes or RU losses. This propagandist looks like he has become so upset with the progress of the current offensive he forgot the directive. Not for long.

[sross112]

8 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is possible, but I at present I'm seeing unconnected events.

The gruesome torture/murder videos were unlikely state sponsored events or released by Russian services.  These sorts of things have been happening since February 24th and likely filmed by the people doing them, so it was only a matter of time before they got out into the public.

The obvious murdering of Azov POWs could just be a way for Russia to "dispose" of a liability they haven't yet figured out how to deal with.  Public trials and executions don't seem to be a good idea, sending them back to Ukraine already proved a bad idea.  So what to do with them?  Quietly murdering them en mas is likely going to be discovered at some point (Katyn Forest is something Putin is well aware of).  So murdering them out in public and claiming Ukraine did it seems to be a pretty good solution.  It serves other purposes as well.

Or it could be that the murder of Azov prisoners was, as reported in some circles, a way to cover up other crimes that were at risk of being uncovered.  Financial crimes by Wagner Group, for example.

And I think the attack on Sevastopol might be an excuse to get out of doing Naval Day (see above).

As for the murder of the Ukrainian business man, this is more akin to the strikes on Odessa right after the deal is struck.  This sends a message to Ukraine and the West that if you compel Russia to compromise on one thing, they'll extract payment in some other way.  "OK, you have convinced me to sell my car.  I don't want to do it.  Shame it got 4 flat tires on its way to you.  Really bad luck.  And honestly, I have no idea how your dog was killed and wound up in the trunk.  Truly a mystery".

Steve

The other piece of the puzzle to consider is the activities in the US and UN attempting to get Russia listed as a Terrorist State. By doing these false flag operations it could be an attempt (although juvenile and transparent as hell) at trying to shift the finger pointing around like they have before.

Also someone stated that the Kremlin is more concerned with internal propaganda than external propaganda so it all could be just for internal consumption. Galvanizing support against the evil Ukrainian nazi terrorists.

It can also be preliminary shaping for the blame game on their real targets. Example the oligarch. Now they can kill off half a dozen Russian oligarchs in fiery explosions and blame Ukrainian terrorists. 

Have to keep watching and see how the dots connect!!

[Huba]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Thanks for that.  Yes, you are correct.  Living creatures with even minimal intelligence have "intuition" that allows them to (sometimes incorrectly!) dismiss sensory information that isn't relevant to whatever is going on around it.  AIs, on the other hand, have no such luck.  They need the equivalent of "intuition" programmed into it and computing resources devoted to executing it.  Not easily done.

Here's a quick example of this.  How many times have you noticed a significant feature (house, natural object, etc.) along a routine driving route and think "huh, I never noticed that before!" or "I wonder when they built that addition?" (only to find out it was 3 years ago!) when you are uncharacteristically a passenger traveling the same route?  Happens to me all the time and I expect it happens to all of you as well.

What's going on with this?  Clearly these things are not necessary for you to go from Point A to Point B, therefore your brain doesn't spend time on them.  Intuitively you know this, but an AI requires complex logic to filter these things out successfully while not accidentally filtering out something that is possibly relevant. 

For example, House A might be something you pay attention to even though it never moves because it is close to the road and one time you saw a kid playing a bit too care free near the curb.  You intuitively associate that specific house with a potential danger and therefore as you approach it you intuitively change your behavior (drive a little slower, pay more attention to the side of the road than normal, etc.).  AIs have to be explicitly programmed to do this.

Yup, AI programing for complex chaotic environments is the worst sort of rabbit hole programming there is.  On the plus side, it's lifetime employment for the programmer

One thought I just got regarding modelling/ predicting warfare (sticking with tactical or operational level, political is just too abstract anyway).  From my limited understanding, solutions to very complex problems like the mentioned autonomous driving can't be achieved by static algorithms alone, but by developing AIs through machine learning. Which in turn requires the mentioned AI to crunch through as many cases as possible while receiving feedback, and thus learning. Now creating this decision - feedback loop for car driving AI is challenging, but relatively easy to conceptualize and implement. Doing the same for AI tasked with making tactical decisions/ analysis... where does the data come from?

AFAIK, testing various ideas about how war should be waged operationally is done through wargaming, but it isn't really useful if you need to repeat the process 10K times. How do you tackle this without automating the wargaming itself? For me this really sounds like a task for strong AI, or something in vicinity of it.

Edited July 31, 2022 by Huba

[FancyCat]

 

 

[akd]

47 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

When I first read the attack and the cancellation of Naval Day, I suspected a link.  I pondered it for a bit and now think my initial reaction was more-or-less correct that the false flag attack was used as cover for cancelling something Russia no longer has the ability to pull off. 

This doesn’t really make sense.  A staged failed attack would be sufficient for those purposes.  A successful attack (literally wounding / killing people on the steps of the BSF Central HQ) on Navy Day is deeply humiliating.  Ukraine is going to deny just like they have with the attacks inside Russia proper as they have no need to provide escalation fuel and the act speaks for itself.

Edited July 31, 2022 by akd

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

They are getting close to UKR gov. 

Vadaturksyi was never actively involved in big politic, limiting himself by Mykolaiv oblast. On background of other oligarchs he looked much better. He didn't exploitate old Soviet actives, he created almost from zero own sucessfull business in shipbuilding, grain storages, grain logistic. He actively sponsored development of Mykolaiv oblast and towns, where he established own enterprises. Since 2014 he actively support UKR army. Of course, he wasn't an angel, because in 90th and further it was impossible to make big money in Ukraine without evading of taxes, corruption and ties with criminals. But if at least half of our reachmen were like Vadaturskyi, we would be live in completely other country.  

I read an opinion, that Vadaturskyi developed new logistic for Ukrainin grain export in war conditions. Hard to say either  his death was deliberated or accidental. Russians shelled Mykolaiv with Smerch or Tornado-S unguided missiles. So doubtly this was precision strike to kill businessman. And on the place of cottadge site, where is Vadaturskyi's house,  in Soviet times located military unit, which was removed and cottadges were built there instead. So, Russians could worked out again with outdated maps. 

Edited July 31, 2022 by Haiduk

[Ts4EVER]

Apparently Serbia is making a move too, just what the world needed...