How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

Except you just described Lenin perfectly....

Haha true to some extent. But look at the context there- it was Smuta, Time of Troubles, when axis mundi collapsed and forces of modernity literally tear Russia apart. Probably worst of similar times in Russian history. Lenin was an anomaly within wider context of Russian history.

Playground was so levelled and power vacuum so...well emtpy that it was this rare moment when decided guy with solid support (and he didn't came out of nowhere, mind you...) could almost took the crown out of the street. Also, revolutionaries of all sorts were alredy working hard to take power before his arrival. Crucialy he was by no means common guy, neither; rather I would describe him as priest of new era; that means- he represented deeper manifestation of order (may sound strange, but this is in fact one of the oldest manifestation of power in human anthropology, and could work in such crazy times). He more resembled Khomeini than commoner like Girkin.

Now those massive, generations long historical processess that lead to Lenin are simply not there. Russians will fear another Smuta, so will try to find somebody rational. And the  are accustomed by at least several generations to strong, already connected leaders with solid past.

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

I'll stop there as this is enough to think about

My prediction is things will be very messy, but in the end the Prags will likely win out.  I don't expect much good from them to start with, but who knows... maybe in time Russia might have a functional government after a few painful cycles that doesn't exist simply to enrich itself at the expense of its own people and neighbors. 

As for Girkin specifically... I don't see him leading the Ultranats in the political arena.  He might be their top commander, but not the replacement for Putin.  I don't think he even wants the job.  So yeah. I'm in agreement with Grigb that he might be more like a Bin Laden in that he's powerful and causes a lot of problems. but at the end of the day doesn't rule anything.

Yes, we are building hypothesis on hypothesis on hypothesis now. It is hard to believe those several wholes in Ukrainian bridge will lead to fall of entire Russian system, but who know?

You described quite plausible scenario, will read in detail it tomorrow. For now, I simply don't see any Ultranationalists in Kremlin or close by. Or if they are there, they are fake.

Edited July 28, 2022 by Beleg85

[FancyCat]

Russian opposition media has published a article on a Russian officer's death from the first days of the invasion and apparently how Russian media used it to pretend he died heroically from saving civilians from Ukrainian fire, I remember the circumstances of it cause of this reddit thread from the first days of the invasion, the 2 women, mother and daughter were stopped at a checkpoint, and two Russian soldiers, the officer and enlisted man tried to keep them from being killed, but instead Russians shot at all 4, killing the officer and mother, the soldier, wounded, was brought to a hospital by the woman and turned over to Ukrainian forces, he was interviewed and you can find that on YT. 

https://old.reddit.com/r/PublicFreakout/comments/t10y4g/modern_warfare_girl_do_instagram_video_with/

 

 

 

Edited July 28, 2022 by FancyCat

[chrisl]

6 hours ago, danfrodo said:

I am going with ChrisL's earlier post on naming the coming kessel -- Putin's Pocket.  Which leads to a new game we can play: "what's in Putin's pocket?".   Looks like lots of LPR/DPR and VDV.  I have seen estimate of max of 15,000.  Even 10,000 if captured would be an epic disaster for Putler.  Christmas in July 

Anyone have any good info on what's actually in Putin's Pocket?

 

Well, since nobody else went there, I'm finding it impossible to avoid going and posting the first thing that came to mind when I read that:

 

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Yes, we are building hypothesis on hypothesis on hypothesis now.

True, but that's how one looks forward.  You make hypothesis and test, then build upon that and test, and so on.  I did that before the war started and so far, in broad strokes at least, the hypothesis have been proven correct.  Those hypothesis included the end of Putin and the Russian Federation changing in a fundamental way.  I'm not trying to be cocky here, but so far my system has been holding up pretty well.  Not that I think my "winning" streak will continue. 

Frankly, I'm surprised I haven't been surprised yet.  As I said on the previous page, I consider myself an amateur at all this because studying Russia is not my concentrated field of study.  I've probably spent more time on carpentry in the last few years than I have thinking about what Putin was up to

2 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

It is hard to believe those several wholes in Ukrainian bridge will lead to fall of entire Russian system, but who know?

Well, that's because it won't be.  The holes in the bridge are only the latest in a string of events that will lead to the collapse of the Russian state as we know it.  Russia has been working towards collapse for decades under Putin's misrule because he deliberately cut Russia off from alternatives.  Starting the war removed all other possible options and left only regime collapse as the likely outcome.  The war itself is playing a central role in determining the form of collapse, in particular how bloody it is.  The longer the war drags on, the greater the chances of significant bloodshed and the less likely the new Russian state will be as large as the previous one. 

What I've been looking for since the war started is when the path towards the end of the Russian Federation transitions to the actual end of the Russian Federation.  I am convinced there will be a distinct event that historians will later point to and say "that was the end of the war".  They might argue about the importance of previous or successive events, but one will rise above all else as more important than others.  My money is on Kherson.

This is not to say that Russia's military will collapse the second the last Russian soldier on the western bank is captured, killed, or forced to swim to the eastern bank.  It could happen that way, but my guess is it will take a while and require some more "bad news" for the war effort to collapse and then even more time for the Putin regime to collapse.  Kinda like how Bagration sealed Nazi Germany's fate even though it took nearly a year of brutal fighting on three fronts to finally end the war.  Or it could be over in a few weeks... no way to know

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

Russian opposition media has published a article on a Russian officer's death from the first days of the invasion and apparently how Russian media used it to pretend he died heroically from saving civilians from Ukrainian fire, I remember the circumstances of it cause of this reddit thread from the first days of the invasion, the 2 women, mother and daughter were stopped at a checkpoint, and two Russian soldiers, the officer and enlisted man tried to keep them from being killed, but instead Russians shot at all 4, killing the officer and mother, the soldier, wounded, was brought to a hospital by the woman and turned over to Ukrainian forces, he was interviewed and you can find that on YT. 

https://old.reddit.com/r/PublicFreakout/comments/t10y4g/modern_warfare_girl_do_instagram_video_with/

 

 

 

A classic example of the Russian way of fighting a war.  Got a problem with subordinates not following orders, even unlawful or unethical ones?  Well, order some of your other subordinates to shoot them.  And there you go... victory.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Looks like ISW is concluding that Russia is no longer capable of sustaining successful offensive operations at any scale:

Quote

Russian forces appear able to sustain only two significant offensive operations in Ukraine at this time, one attempting to seize Siversk and the other advancing on Bakhmut. These operations have focused on advances in the Siversk, Donetsk Oblast, direction from Verkhnokamianka and Bilohorivka and in the Bakhmut direction from the areas of Novoluhanske and the Vuhlehirska Thermal Power Plant since the end of the operational pause on July 16. Russian forces have committed enough resources to conduct near-daily ground assaults and to seize territory on these two axes but have been unable to sustain a similar offensive operational tempo or to make similar territorial gains elsewhere in Ukraine. The Russian offensive, therefore, remains likely to culminate before seizing any other major urban areas in Ukraine.

In layman's terms, they are saying that Russia has managed to cobble together enough forces to make two relatively small offensive pushes that are likely to burn out before they achieve anything significant.  And when that happens, Russia's offensive capabilities (for now) are over and done with.

ISW also discussed the possibility that the tip of the Russian Izyum bridgehead is in the process of some sort of Russian withdrawal and/or Ukrainian counter offensive.  But as of their publication time they hadn't confirmed anything more than we've seen reported here.  Whatever the case is, clearly something is changing there.  My assumption is Russia has realized they don't have the manpower to continue attacking Slavyansk from the rear and are relocating the forces there to places where they think better progress can be made.  Frontal assault style.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

For those outside of the US and not familiar with US politics, remember the vote by a bunch of Republican Congress members against Ukrainian aid a couple of weeks ago?  Remember how some of us Americans commented that this is fairly normal and shouldn't be taken as a measure of US commitment to Ukraine?  Well, for those who weren't reassured by our advice, here's something that might put fears to rest:

"20 House Republicans who voted against anti-human trafficking bill"

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/3576150-gaetz-among-20-house-republicans-who-voted-against-anti-human-trafficking-bill/

The main point here the US government and its people are no more in favor of Human trafficking then they are abandoning support of Ukraine.

It is also worthy of noting that many of the same people that voted against the Ukraine legislation are also the same ones that voted against this anti-Human trafficking bill.  You can ignore the scandal aspect of the story if you like, but it kinda is relevant in a way. 

Steve

[danfrodo]

Great posts y'all.  I only have one thing to add to the discussion about what will happen w RU should Putin fall.  I think the military officer corps doesn't want this war and would love to get out and get back to making money via corruption.  But for corruption one needs a big military budget to steal.  So the military will come in on whoever will end the war and promise them big budgets.  That counts out the ultranats, who will fight this hopeless war to the last dead schmuck.

[chuckdyke]

Russia ‘has definitively lost initiative’ in battle for Donbas (msn.com)

Wait and see no objectives held. 

[FancyCat]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

A classic example of the Russian way of fighting a war.  Got a problem with subordinates not following orders, even unlawful or unethical ones?  Well, order some of your other subordinates to shoot them.  And there you go... victory.

Steve

I’ve always been incredulous regarding Chechen “blocking” troops existing, but if a Russian junior officer can get executed for the mere act of protecting a civilian from death on the literal first day of the invasion, when one would think discipline would be at the highest point…..

huh, actually a Lt. Colonel ordered them killed. And the troops obeyed without question. On the first ****ing day of the invasion. Christ. I was thinking a fragging incident happened but this is way beyond that. On 2nd thought maybe blocking troops isn’t so outlandish to occur, firing on their own. 

[Machor]

Good reporting from the front by the BBC - @Taranis will like this:

Ukraine war: West's modern weapons halt Russia's advance in Donbas

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62317366

Quote

 

...

But in the corner of a wheat field outside Donetsk, the commander of a Ukrainian artillery unit who asked to be known only by his first name, Dmitro, was adamant. "They're not firing as often. The rate of artillery fire [from Russian forces] has dropped by half. Maybe even more, maybe by two-thirds," he said, patting the side of a large green vehicle beside him.

The vehicle - a self-propelled artillery piece with a huge barrel pointing south towards Russian-held territory - is a French manufactured Caesar, one of the growing number of sophisticated Western weapons that can now be spotted moving along country lanes throughout Donbas. Dmitro, and many others here, believe they are helping to turn the tide against Russia.

With a deafening blast, the Caesar fired the first of three shells at what Dmitro said was a Russian infantry unit and several artillery pieces 27km (16 miles) away.

"We're much more accurate now. And we can hit them much further away," he said, with a grin. Within a minute, the artillery team had fired two more shells, and the vehicle was already moving away, fast, before Russian artillery had a chance to track its position and return fire.

 

And support for my observation on the previous page of the thread that Ukraine is closing the 'artillery gap':

Quote

 

...

"Listen to that silence," said Yuri Bereza, a bearded 52-year-old commanding a volunteer unit tasked with defending Slovyansk. For well over an hour one recent morning, on a visit to a network of defensive trenches east of the city, not a single explosion could be heard.

"That's all because of the artillery you've given us - because of its accuracy," said Bereza. "Before, Russia had 50 gun barrels for every one we had. Now it's more like five to one. Their advantage is now insignificant. You could call it parity."

But Bereza, like Dmitro, emphasised that Ukraine needed far more Western weaponry in order to launch an effective counter-offensive.

"They can't beat us, and we can't beat them here. We need more equipment, especially armour, tanks, aviation. Without these things there will be enormous loss of life. That's the way Russia is used to waging war. They throw lives away," said Bereza.

"Ideally, we'd like three times as many [Western weapons] as they've already sent us. And quickly," confirmed Dmitro.

 

 

[Grigb]

It looks like RU Nats are not interested in new RU offensive. They are either silent or write about completely unrelated things like Bout exchange. 

This is what UKR General staff says

Quote

The operational update regarding the #russian_invasion on 06.00, on July 28, 2022. 

In the Slovyansk direction, with the aim of finding weak points in the defense of our units, the occupiers conducted assaults in the Dovhenke - Mazanivka and Pasika - Dolyna directions, without success. Artillery shelling was noted in the areas of Andriivka, Nortsivka, Bohorodychne, Chepil, Velyka Komyshuvaha, Petrivske and Husarivka settlements.

The enemy did not conduct active operations in the Kramatorsk direction. It shelled the districts of Zakitne, Verkhnyokamyanske and Tetyanivka with artillery. Made an airstrike near Serebryanka.
In the Bakhmut direction, the enemy is trying to improve the tactical position, but our soldiers repelled the assaults in the Klynove - Bakhmut and Myronivskyi - Semihirya directions and forced the invaders to retreat. The enemy has partial success in the direction of Vidrodzhennya - Vershyna, and is entrenched southeast of the settlement of Vershyna. The attempt to advance in the directions Volodymyrivka – Soledar and Streapivka – Soledar ended in failure for the occupiers.

The enemy carried out artillery fire in the areas of the settlements of Bilohorivka, Mykolaivka, Nova Kamyanka, Vesela Dolyna, Kodema, Semihirya and New York. Airstrikes near Yakovlivka, Pokrovsky and Soledar.
The enemy did not conduct active operations in the Avdiyivka, Novopavlivka, and Zaporizhzhia directions. In order to strengthen the grouping of troops in the Zaporizhzhia direction, additional units are being transferred.

 

[Letter from Prague]

10 hours ago, Grigb said:

Fingers crossed. Also found new art for my wall.

 

 

I love the picture. It would be even better if the bridge had holes in it  

[chuckdyke]

There is nothing new under the sun.

https://twitter.com/ArmorCollection/status/1552412890761760769?s=20&t=Qcza_KCvIPdxONvtobjgYA

[Taranis]

Kherson area :
"The Armed Forces of Ukraine destroyed Russian ammunition warehouses in Chornobayivka and Bilohirka, - South Operative Command"

 

 

[Letter from Prague]

I read the fascinating analyses and I have a question. With the general consensus of the thread being that Ultranats are likely going nowhere since they can only offer endless war to the last man and nobody really wants that.

How does Crimea and the 2014 borders play into this? If Ukraine is gonna HIMARS the Kerch bridge and start moving into Crimea, is that likely to turn this into "people's war"?

[Huba]

36 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

I read the fascinating analyses and I have a question. With the general consensus of the thread being that Ultranats are likely going nowhere since they can only offer endless war to the last man and nobody really wants that.

How does Crimea and the 2014 borders play into this? If Ukraine is gonna HIMARS the Kerch bridge and start moving into Crimea, is that likely to turn this into "people's war"?

I'm not up to the analysis on the Steve/ Grigb/ Beleg level here, but for sure this hypothetical event is way higher up the escalation/ pain ladder than what's going on today. If ZSU manages to dislodge RU from Kherson (an exposed, risky position RU holds there), then the Landbridge,then Crimea is the logical next step (arguably, Kharkiv/Donbas might come first). Each of this steps represents a huge blow to the Russian prestige and I'd think each one might result in something dramatic happening... If it doesn't, and Russia just keeps losing without political collapse, it's going to get interesting, as at this point UA would basically be done with reconquering all the territories - I doubt they're going to drive on Moscow next...

Edited July 28, 2022 by Huba

[G.I. Joe]

15 hours ago, Butschi said:

Depends. Topics I have some expertise in feel usually varying degrees of cringe worthy to me. Don't believe a word of what they write about physics related stuff. For politics they are quite good, though. (Or I just don't have enough knowledge to see the cringe worthiness )

It is my experience that general media coverage of specialized topics often veers into cringe-worthiness. On this forum, we can probably all relate to frustration with the Reporters' Standard Definition of "Tank:" a military vehicle that is not obviously a truck, a "jeep," an aircraft or a ship... I have also often thought that the world will be a better place when reporters learn the subtle, nuanced difference in meaning between the phrases "science proves!" and "one study suggests..."

And for a hilariously egregious example, see this blog post by British paleontologist (and paleoartist) Mark Witton about how an illustration he did for a paper on evidence that a shark preyed (or scavenged) on a (presumably swimming or drowned) pterosaur got taken badly out of context...

[Huba]

Dmitri did another translation of Arestovych. Of course it is to be taken with a grain of salt, but the overall message is very interesting, I recommend reading the whole thing:

Quote

Battlefield update:
Fundamental strategic changes observed – relocating everything from Izium and elsewhere to Kherson-Melitopol-Zaporozhye area.
doing frontal offensive in Donetsk front, from Marinka to Avdiivka.
has small achievement – captured Vuhlehirska power station.
Siversk and Bakhmut – is not doing well.

Russia’s plans:
Assumption that Kremlin has decided to cancel the objective of capturing Donetsk district, and switching to strategic defence (along all front line). Unknown if plans to do few concentrated attacks, to negate offensive potential. has imagined 4-move plan, such complicated plans are bound to fail. 2 moves would work.
has finally made strategic level mistake, August is going to be very interesting.
will switch to defence, press for cease-fire (Korea style), agreement like Minsk-3. For that they need to stop counter-offensive, to force to waste their reserves prematurely in one or several directions.
Words for this were thought some 2-3 months ago, now actions are confirmed.

public opinions are going insane, seems like everyone got permission to write bad news.

https://wartranslated.com/day-154-july-27-summary-of-arestovych-and-feygin-daily-broadcast/

[G.I. Joe]

On 7/25/2022 at 10:04 AM, Haiduk said:

What happened with PL01 project? Looked like Startroopers vehicle ) You made decision to rise army capabilities as quick as possible and don't wait for this development? I wonder what we will do after war - either continue to develop some unclear "Molot" project (anyway based on 30-years old concept) or completely other tank will be started to develop "from zero", taking into account modern trends. Or we will buy foreign tanks like you. But our tank-producing lobby doesn't allow to do this 

Rebuilding Ukraine's tank production capability postwar is an interesting question...maybe Malyshev can strike a deal with Hyundai Rotem to open up another K2PL production line in Kharkiv. Although for the longer term, it does strike me that it would be a great way of trolling the Russians if the next indigenous Ukrainian tank ends up being designated T-34...

Hey, the Germans have a new Panther, why not?

[Grigb]

1 hour ago, Letter from Prague said:

I read the fascinating analyses and I have a question. With the general consensus of the thread being that Ultranats are likely going nowhere since they can only offer endless war to the last man and nobody really wants that.

How does Crimea and the 2014 borders play into this? If Ukraine is gonna HIMARS the Kerch bridge and start moving into Crimea, is that likely to turn this into "people's war"?

Unlikely. Recently I posted complaint from one RU propagandist that RU media treats Crimeans and LDNR people not as Russian but Russian-speaking at most.

Quote

But it is completely unclear why the Russian official media live within the framework of the Ukrainian picture of the world.

It seems that we do not raise the question at all that in Simferopol and Lugansk there are not mysterious peoples of Crimeans and LNRovci, but local Russians – who are fighting for their independence and for their unity with the great Motherland...

And if you shy away from our very name and do not see ourselves, these are only problems of your relationship with reality. If the devil can't stand incense, it's not an incense problem.

We are not "Russian-speaking". We are not "the peoples of Donetsk, Crimea, Lipetsk and Kuban."

As you can see even official media is not rushing to call them Russians. Just some Russian-speaking people from recently liberated lands. 

[Grigb]

34 minutes ago, Huba said:

 public opinions are going insane, seems like everyone got permission to write bad news.

I was sniffing around tea leaves to see what Dove party is doing (We saw hawk move before). The tea leaves smell following - unlike hawks who have standalone propaganda sources like Regnum or frontline reporters the Doves controls either part or whole official propaganda apparatus including censure committees. That's why we saw in the past attacks on battlefield reporters - Doves were (and still are) trying to suppress Hawk frontline reporters.

But the crucial point - looks like recently Dove decided to shape RU public opinion toward necessity of Peace deal. Hence the permission to publish bad news. This is intentional Doves move.

[Haiduk]

The writing "harvisting 2022"

At 5:30 of morning there were two distant booms (I herad not even explosions, but some sort of vibration). Later in news I've read about two hits in Vyshhorod district north from Kyiv. Two smoke trails on horizon to this time. Reportedly Russians launched at least 20 missiles - Kalibrs from Black Sea, Kh-22 from Shaikovka airfield, Russia, Iskanders from Ziabrovka airfield, Belarus. Air Command reported they couldn't intercept theese missiles. 13 missiles hit forestry area near Honcharivske, Chernihiv oblast.

Edited July 28, 2022 by Haiduk

[chuckdyke]

Ukrainians will have a new tank the VZ1. VZ stands for Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Based on the new German Panther the loader has been replaced with a drone operator as the tank has an autoloader.

[poesel]

Wrt to invading Crimea: should the Russian southern flank fall and Ukraine gets land access to the peninsula, they will probably use the 'cook the frog' method. Taking small strips of land step by step. Eventually dropping a shell on the Kherch bridge to remind the Russians that they only have this way out (on foot). And so on.
That way, the Russians are slowly getting used to loosing Crimea, avoiding a strong(er) reaction.