How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[sburke]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Not sold.

 

one additional factor you left off.  the technology to get it out of the ground- Russia has been very dependent on western expertise.  you can't go to China for that, and it is really really hard to get around sanctions on that.

[Haiduk]

19 minutes ago, Huba said:

Unclear what the target was at this point, but overall it more and more looks like terror bombing...

The voice on video says "YuMZ is shelled" - this is famous "Yuzhmash" plant, where Soviet strategic and space missiles were developed and built. Now YuzhMash is developing ballistic missile Hrim-2 (funded by KSA) and some other projects

Edited July 15, 2022 by Haiduk

[Der Zeitgeist]

5 hours ago, Bearstronaut said:

I’m wondering if eventually we reach a point where the Russians decide that going after NATO supply points in Poland is worth it to them. 

I think it's more likely they'll go for sabotage actions against the energy sector. We already had the unexplained explosion at the LNG terminal in Freeport, Texas, and I wouldn't be surprised to see more "incidents" like this when the European energy crisis really starts during the winter. 

Edited July 15, 2022 by Der Zeitgeist

[dan/california]

18 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

I think it's more likely they'll go for sabotage actions against the energy sector. We already had the unexplained explosion at the LNG terminal in Freeport, Texas, and I wouldn't be surprised to see more "incidents" like this when the European energy crisis really starts during the winter. 

Biden should make it vert clear, albeit quietly, that every "unexplained accidents" in the Western energy sector will be met with truly massive increases in aid to Ukraine. A brigade worth of Bradleys and Abrams level massive. Or a couple of squadrons of F-16s with top grade AAMs and guided bombs.

Edited July 15, 2022 by dan/california

[Battlefront.com]

37 minutes ago, billbindc said:

My understanding is that the US gov't was aware of Russian invasion plans at the latest in April of 2021.

Yup, that is my understanding as well.  It also seems like they caught wind of it pretty early.  One thing is for sure, the day the US first discovered the plan for attacking Ukraine was not the first day Putin thought of it. 

The timing of April is pretty interesting.  The Belarus protests had just been put down after nearly a year of unrest.  I am sure this factored into Putin's decision.  I can just see him thinking "wow, that was a close one.  Better not wait any longer".

Steve

[Huba]

7 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Biden should make it vert clear, albeit quietly, that every "unexplained accident" in the Western energy sector will be met with truly massive increases in aid to Ukraine. A brigade worth of Bradleys and Abrams level massive. Or a couple of squadrons of F-16s with top grade AAMs and guided bombs.

Or with appropriately larger incident in some oil producing facility somewhere in Siberia. Obviously West/ US is not interested in sabotaging RU energy production as such, as it would bite everyone in the butt at the end, but given how much western produced machinery is working in RU energy sector, I'm sure that if push comes to shove, considerable percentage of it can be just switched off ( or catastrophically malfunction) 30 minutes after decision to take it down.

Edited July 15, 2022 by Huba

[JonS]

2 hours ago, Huba said:

Could be super useful in the war Ukraine is fighting - on the other hand, there would be a huge outcry about it

Cluster bombing any country is a terrible idea. Cluster bombing your *own* country?
 

All wars end, sooner or later. Tidying up afterwards is hard enough without leaving yourself boobytraps to play with.

[dan/california]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yup, that is my understanding as well.  It also seems like they caught wind of it pretty early.  One thing is for sure, the day the US first discovered the plan for attacking Ukraine was not the first day Putin thought of it. 

The timing of April is pretty interesting.  The Belarus protests had just been put down after nearly a year of unrest.  I am sure this factored into Putin's decision.  I can just see him thinking "wow, that was a close one.  Better not wait any longer".

Steve

And all but taking over in Belarus let him start a 100 miles Kyiv, instead of 300 to 400 mlles from Kyiv. It made Putin's three day war plan look vaguely plausible.

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, dan/california said:

And all but taking over in Belarus let him start a 100 miles Kyiv, instead of 300 to 400 mlles from Kyiv. It made Putin's three day war plan look vaguely plausible.

Yes.  I'm sure the thought was already in Putin's head, but he might have sensed an opportunity to use Belarus as a base that wasn't there prior to the protests *or* sensed that any thought of using Belaruis as a base could suddenly go away of Lukashenko was deposed.  Either way, the fact that Lukashenko nearly got deposed was most likely part of the calculus for what to do about Ukraine.

Steve

[billbindc]

49 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yup, that is my understanding as well.  It also seems like they caught wind of it pretty early.  One thing is for sure, the day the US first discovered the plan for attacking Ukraine was not the first day Putin thought of it. 

The timing of April is pretty interesting.  The Belarus protests had just been put down after nearly a year of unrest.  I am sure this factored into Putin's decision.  I can just see him thinking "wow, that was a close one.  Better not wait any longer".

Steve

Yes and Putin's clique badly miscalculated that the pull out from Afghanistan would severely limit American willingness to get involved in Ukraine. A pretty classic error of the poorer player at the poker table misunderstanding the motivations and limits of a far richer one.

[Artkin]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

one additional factor you left off.  the technology to get it out of the ground- Russia has been very dependent on western expertise.  you can't go to China for that, and it is really really hard to get around sanctions on that.

I assume China is capable enough to have whatever technology to drill that Russia lacks. Why wouldnt they share it with the Russians? Do they have to compete like China and India does? 

I actually don't know. But it doesn't make sense for China to throw away a potentially powerful ally when they already have India on their own border. 

A lot of the global economy is "fake". I wonder how crippled a full sanctioned China would be when they shift their efforts from creating throwaway cheap goods and focus it somewhere else. 

After all, their government has total control over their economy. 

[ASL Veteran]

10 minutes ago, Artkin said:

A lot of the global economy is "fake".

I'm not sure I understand what you mean by that.

[JonS]

12 minutes ago, Artkin said:

I actually don't know. But …

Lol. Your contributions, summarised

[akd]

13 minutes ago, Artkin said:

I assume China is capable enough to have whatever technology to drill that Russia lacks.

They don’t.

[Haiduk]

Air Force Command claimed the strike on Dnipro was conducted with Kh-101 cruise missiles, launched from Tu-95MS over Caspian Sea. Four missiles were shot down, four or five hit the city. Reportedly "industrial object" was struck (likely Yuzhmash), also there is a footage of one missile hit the street and destroyed several parked cars (likely no killed in this case). In present time knowingly about 3 dead and 15 injured. 

Also enemy missiles, probably form the same launch hit Kremenchuk. One missile was shot down not far from Bila Tserkva city in Kyiv oblast. Looks like a pair of Tu-95MS launched about dozen missiles. 

Other video of Dnipro strike

 

Edited July 15, 2022 by Haiduk

[Huba]

1 hour ago, JonS said:

Cluster bombing any country is a terrible idea. Cluster bombing your *own* country?
 

All wars end, sooner or later. Tidying up afterwards is hard enough without leaving yourself boobytraps to play with.

Alternative might be quite worse. At least Poland is still using DPICM-type munitions and we don’t intend to stop. Demining later beats being overrun by orcs today I guess.

In other news, UA Air Force is active. These guys need some Eurofighters…

 

 

 

Edited July 15, 2022 by Huba

[Haiduk]

This guy is civil volunteer, supplying SOF units and he claims German MARS-2 launchers already two days work in Ukraine

 

[akd]

@sburke @Kinophile

Major Sergei Rzhavin, unit unknown:

 

[The_Capt]

3 hours ago, billbindc said:

Yes. This was started because Putin saw the situation as existential to the Russian state and as Steve notes above, now for Putin personally, it is as well. He can't lose and expect to survive. Patrushev and the inner circle might not either. And because of their blinkered mindset, it's an existential fight for Ukraine and NATO too. Even if there is a peace treaty tomorrow, this will remain unfinished business until the Russian side has been completely defeated. 

Happy Friday? 

Well at least people in my business are going to be in for a Bull market.  “We are in the war business and business is booming!  Contract work for all!”  

News for everyone else…not so good.

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Putin calculated around 2019 that there was really no longer much hope of getting anywhere with Ukraine through "other means".  2020 probably cemented that view.  War planning seems to have started in early 2021.  During the summer of 2021 it looks like Putin gave "other means" one more shot by attempting to get Minsk 2 going again.  If he got something good from that, war might have been put off for the near term.  However, he got absolutely nowhere with that so it went from planning to execution starting in the late summer of 2021 and war in February 2022.

So this is where I am leaning but with a slight spin.  Based on how “other means” work, I think Russia ran out of manoeuvre room in this space.  Ukraine was pretty much united in 2014 and Russian influence at a micro social level was extremely constricted. The opposition guy, who was the likely puppet-in-waiting (the sad sack the captured about a month in), bolted early because he likely knew it too.  

So the thing about “grey zone” is that it is not wizardry, it is just another strategic options space.  A space with rules and human physics like any other, even if they are different from mainstream warfare.  A primary requirement of grey zone operations is that they are primarily inductive not conductive.  Reflexive not coercive.  So one basically has to work it so that the target employs its own energy against its own interest, often all the while leaving them thinking it was their own idea.  It is subversive jujitsu warfare and can do a lot, but it has severe limitations as well.  For example, it is almost impossible once you become the boogie man under every bed. If attribution becomes automatic one ability to subvert gets much harder.  If they can name you, they take away your power.  I cannot “undecided” you if I become your certainty.

So what? Russia ran out of options and they knew it - here we agree. Then I think we are seeing 3rd order chaos at play (see Harari for the other 2).  We have a non-linear human system that reacted to imagined stimuli - more simply put, they talked themselves into it.  This has the hallmarks of an autocatalytic loop built within a small power echo chamber feeding on paranoia in multiple dimensions.  Pandemic, NATO, Putin and the Grim Reaper playing ass-grab, the unstable state molecule that is Russia, autocratic reality as being only as good as your last trick.  This looks like the perfect condition for a small group of insular elites talking themselves into increasing crazy.

We have seen evidence of similar phenomenon all over the place, “Freedom Convoys” & “Social Justice”, small sub-groups convinced they need to do something.  I am not laying this on the doorstep of the pandemic but it did strain social bonds vertically and horizontally, and in Russia that is a bad thing.  The elites in power appear to have talked themselves into all of this in a spiral of progressive unreality.

The big issue is “how does one negotiate with that?”  I am not sure one can because every action reinforces that spiral.  They only plays are unacceptable; agreeing and supporting Russia for example.  That action may take the air out, but c’mon, not realistic.

I avoid predictions but one is jumping out at me again and again; this war will break a lot more than Ukraine before it is done.

[Der Zeitgeist]

22 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

This guy is civil volunteer, supplying SOF units and he claims German MARS-2 launchers already two days work in Ukraine

Hmmm, interesting. Our government didn't announce yet when they were supposed to arrive. 

[billbindc]

12 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

(...)

We have a non-linear human system that reacted to imagined stimuli - more simply put, they talked themselves into it.  This has the hallmarks of an autocatalytic loop built within a small power echo chamber feeding on paranoia in multiple dimensions.  Pandemic, NATO, Putin and the Grim Reaper playing ass-grab, the unstable state molecule that is Russia, autocratic reality as being only as good as your last trick.  This looks like the perfect condition for a small group of insular elites talking themselves into increasing crazy.

(...)

Exactly. And if you look at the behavior and culture of the Soviet security elites, *that* is a long running tendency. Operation RYaN under Andropov, the Great Terror, etc were all driven by the conspiratorial culture at the core of Russian elites that took power in 1917. When it is in the ascendant, you can't argue with it. You simply have to defeat it.

[sburke]

1 hour ago, Artkin said:

I assume China is capable enough to have whatever technology to drill that Russia lacks. Why wouldnt they share it with the Russians? Do they have to compete like China and India does? 

AKD already replied but the fact is western oil companies have the tech. period.  China does not.  If they had there would have been other deals with Russia a long time ago.  Don't assume.  

[Artkin]

42 minutes ago, ASL Veteran said:

I'm not sure I understand what you mean by that.

Food service, truck drivers, salons, junk "food" producers, tertiary jobs that maintain rather than produce. I could spend all day thinking of more but I wont. Sure a lot of the economy is true necessary work. Think of a wartime economy, sort of. 

The truck driver dilemma is probably the best way to go about this. My question: Why need truck drivers when computers can do the same thing (eventually)? I'm sure everyone has heard of this arguement. What to do with the drivers? It's one of the largest occupations in the US if I'm not mistaken. This is now a filler job. Something that doesn't produce as meaningful results (Since computers can do it better) but has to stay because it employs masses of people. People dont want to let large companies invest into the tech because it will drive them out of their occupation. 

This is what I mean. If you are a producer like a farmer, someone who crafts, etc. That is valuable and essential work.

[Artkin]

1 hour ago, JonS said:

Lol. Your contributions, summarised

I was hoping someone would chime in and lend some knowledge but that was wishful thinking. Few people on here have the knowledge that I seek. 

I'm stirring the pot, some pretty satisfying information has come from this. It takes some back and fourth. There's nothing wrong with theorizing. One thing is for sure. When I'm your age I won't be ******* on others. 

[Artkin]

Money talks, end of story. How did a Chinese stealth program come to fruition? 

This is totally off topic so I am finished here.