How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[DesertFox]

1 hour ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

 Also, they're highly dependent on rail trainsport. Taken together, this all leads to these huge centralised depot locations.

I really wonder why UKR hasn´t started to blow up the railheads already and all lines leading into UKR territory from the east.

[Der Zeitgeist]

2 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

I really wonder why UKR hasn´t started to blow up the railheads already and all lines leading into UKR territory from the east.

I guess it simply isn't all that easy to do. They had some success with sabotage teams blowing up some bridges and embankments a few months ago, but it takes some serious munitions to cut a rail line via air or missile attack. Maybe if they get unitary ATACMs, who knows....

[panzermartin]

15 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Of course! Despite some training and tactical issues, those guys who have been serving in artillery long time have very good opinion about 777 and other western 155 mm (SP)howitzers. First of all - due to much better technologies of barrels prodicing and more precice powder charges weight and shells weight, western guns have less dispersion, so they can be used as "sniper rifles of arty" in comparison with Russians, which just showering our positions grid-by-grid with tons of steel.  

Though there is one significant issue - barrels exhaust in two times faster, than Soviet - about 2000 shots against 5000 in average. After 2000 accuracy is graduially reducing to Soviet guns level, but since Canada supply us with barrels, this problem can be solved by maintainance units.   

 

15 hours ago, Grigb said:

While @Haiduk is busy, I will offer what I got with limited UKR language understanding + what RU says (it is similar to UKR opinion). M777 is a good solid workhorse. Good range, good accuracy, good shell. They are dealing with issues by rotating guns between frontlines and workshops. So, there are fewer on frontline than we expect, and the effect is not as war winning as everybody initially thought but they are fighting, and RU feels it.

Take it with the grain of salt as I might confuse something.

Thank you for the replies. I was suspecting the maintencance issue has also to do with the more pressure UKR has to put on less guns to cope with RU arty. M777 fairs better with a steady slow RPM (2 per minute if wiki is correct)  

[Huba]

3 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

I guess it simply isn't all that easy to do. They had some success with sabotage teams blowing up some bridges and embankments a few months ago, but it takes some serious munitions to cut a rail line via air or missile attack. Maybe if they get unitary ATACMs, who knows....

There are higher value targets all around. They blew up the temporary rail bridge in Kupyansk a few days ago, but that was a much softer target than concrete ones. 

I imagine destroying even a major bridges with GMLRS would be possible (the spans at least) but at the cost of significant ammo expenditure. I wonder if we'll see that in Kherson at some point.

[FancyCat]

O'Brien lays out why this attack is so bad for Russia. Putting parts of it below.

 

 

[AlsatianFelix]

4 hours ago, Huba said:

Some pictures taken today in Nova Kakhovka, the scale of destruction is appaling. No news on collateral damage yet.

With almost 2M Ukrainians living permanently in Russian Federation, stuff like this is bound to happen:

 

Meh. It was on the wrong side of the river anyway.

 

 

[hcrof]

22 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

O'Brien lays out why this attack is so bad for Russia. Putting parts of it below.

 

 

I am not surprised the Russians did not adapt before, even though they knew himars were incoming. Moving ammo dumps sounds like the sort of annoying task that is always going to be done after something seemingly more urgent, especially for an overworked staff like the Russians have got.

I think saying they can't adapt is a bit strong though - they have to adapt. They have quite a dilemma though - disperse the dumps and disrupt an already straining logistics system, while pulling infantry off the front line for rear security, or move them back by 85km which is a very long drive, or do nothing and watch stuff go boom. 

what I expect to see though is that they will stop piling ammo up in heaps and start using berms and pits etc. They knew they needed to do that already, they were just too ill-disciplined. That will change when their lives are on the line.

 

[panzermartin]

Talking about guns is cool but the real trouble for most of us in EU has only began  https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2022/jul/12/euro-dollar-parity-russia-gas-ftse-stock-markets-recession-strikes-business-live

Slightly off topic, seems what Turkey hopes to achieve by letting Finland and Sweden in is still far away, the F16 deal will probably get blocked for a start. Even Jewish organizations join the fight now. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/newsbulletin247.com/politics/132364.html%3famp=1

[Butschi]

43 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Talking about guns is cool but the real trouble for most of us in EU has only began  https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2022/jul/12/euro-dollar-parity-russia-gas-ftse-stock-markets-recession-strikes-business-live

Indeed. We shouldn't ignore that time doesn't necessarily favour Ukraine. If the Russian aggression continues, I think we'll see this through, even if it hurts us badly. But if Putin plays it smart (not sure he's still able to) he'll grab whatever he can and come winter offer peace negotiations offering to, say, give back everything but the Donbass (assuming Russia still has some steam left and not lost most of the occupied territory already) return all POWs and other kidnapped people and some more favourably seeming stuff - maybe even reparations, disguised as help for rebuilding, because the poor population shouldn't suffer from the sadly necessary war against their Nazi leaders. Gas and Oil will flow like pre war but some or all sanctions are lifted. By winter s*** will have hit the proverbial fan in Europe and in such a case pressure will rise on Ukraine to accept. If they refuse, they will increasingly look like the aggressive party in this conflict - the usual populistic suspects will exploit this, with some help from Moscow, no doubt. 

Speaking from a German perspective, we are a rather self centered lot at times. So far, most politicians, most the media and the more open minded people (in short, those who are heard at least in the classical media) are very supportive of Ukraine. Pro Russian statement are really not fashionable, right now. But "the common people" are often, well not pro Russia, but somewhat annoyed by Ukraine (Steinmeier incident, etc).

The word gas triage came up recently. While the rules are clear that private consumers are prioritized over business consumers, our industry is increasingly questioning this. So, come winter things may get really nasty. Freezing is bad enough but tanking the industry, endangering jobs is where many will draw the line. (especially for the boomer+ generations here prosperity is almost a religious thing)

Other European countries are not in a so much better situation. And while many will not be too unhappy to see Germans suffering just a bit just this time, the effects of a bad recession in Germany would also hurt the rest of Europe badly. So if Germany was to put pressure on Ukraine I could imagine that other countries would, although openly badmouthing us, support such a move.

Bleak scenario and I hope I'm wrong.

[akd]

@sburke @Kinophile

Confirmation and full name for Col. Alexey Gorobets, commander 20th Guards MRD:

Avramchenko posted earlier was indeed a full Colonel and as of Feb. 15, 2022 seems to have held the position of Deputy Commander of the 20th Guards MRD:

https://v102.ru/news/103507.html

Edited July 12, 2022 by akd

[Harmon Rabb]

Good news if true. The only other source for this story that I was able to find after a quick Google News search is this web page.

https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2022/07/12/spain-gifts-leopard-2a4s-to-ukraine-eu-pays-for-their-upgrade/

 

[Huba]

30 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Other European countries are not in a so much better situation. And while many will not be too unhappy to see Germans suffering just a bit just this time, the effects of a bad recession in Germany would also hurt the rest of Europe badly. So if Germany was to put pressure on Ukraine I could imagine that other countries would, although openly badmouthing us, support such a move.

Bleak scenario and I hope I'm wrong.

Thing is that  at least some countries will not be affected by gas problems more than they already are. And those countries are Poland and the Baltic states. We are already screwed much more than the Eurozone, with inflation peaking now at around 13%. With unanimity on UE decisions regarding sanctions, and UA already granted candidate status, what pressure could Germany exert as a single country?  Lithuania and Kaliningrad are a good case here, Scholz might be pissed but he could do nothing about it. I'm afraid that once Western European countries signed in on this, they are shackled to CEE who are absolutely willing to suffer a bit. And it's true that Germany being in trouble cause of it's gas dependence is a reason for schadenfreude, even if it will bite us all in the butt at the end.

 

[Der Zeitgeist]

17 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Good news if true. The only other source for this story that I was able to find after a quick Google News search is this web page.

https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2022/07/12/spain-gifts-leopard-2a4s-to-ukraine-eu-pays-for-their-upgrade/

The "Visegrad24" account is mostly about bashing Western Europe (especially Germany) from an Eastern Europe (especially Polish, and specifically PiS/Fidesz-party) perspective.

It tries very hard to look like a reputable online news site, but it's actually an account that mostly posted pro-PiS and pro-Orban propaganda before the war.

Edited July 12, 2022 by Der Zeitgeist

[Butschi]

9 minutes ago, Huba said:

Thing is that  at least some countries will not be affected by gas problems more than they already are. And those countries are Poland and the Baltic states. We are already screwed much more than the Eurozone, with inflation peaking now at around 13%. With unanimity on UE decisions regarding sanctions, and UA already granted candidate status, what pressure could Germany exert as a single country?  Lithuania and Kaliningrad are a good case here, Scholz might be pissed but he could do nothing about it. I'm afraid that once Western European countries signed in on this, they are shackled to CEE who are absolutely willing to suffer a bit. And it's true that Germany being in trouble cause of it's gas dependence is a reason for schadenfreude, even if it will bite us all in the butt at the end.

 

Pressure from Germany alone won't do much, true. But as I said, other countries may see it as a way to get out of this while Germany is taking the blame. Overtly criticizing but quietly supporting the move.

Kaliningrad is an example where German pressure didn't work, however in the case of that turbine for NS1 it worked. And our government explicity denied breaking the sanctions this way because it was agreed on that sanctions would only make sense if they hurt Russia more than they hurt us. So there is already a precedence.

[Grigb]

Funny RU propaganda fail

Quote

People find unexploded Ukrainian shells right in their homes and personally take them out through holes in collapsed walls — away from themselves.

The Ukrainians struck with missiles from the HIMARS MLRS, which the United States supplies to Kiev.

What insidious missiles US made - they fly like missiles but hit targets like arty shells!

[Huba]

4 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

The "Visegrad24" account is mostly about bashing Western Europe (especially Germany) from an Eastern Europe (especially Polish, and specifically PiS/Fidesz-party) perspective.

It tries very hard to look like a reputable online news site, but it's actually an account that mostly posted pro-PiS and pro-Orban propaganda before the war.

Pro Fidesz mostly at this point. They are still pushing the PL/ HU anti-UE "alliance" narrative, which PiS signed off of when it become clear that Orban is such a Putin's lapdog. PiS (and it'd hard for me to talk about them without violating the cussing rules) toned down on anti-EU rhetoric very much, even it's German bashing is more ritual at this point, only as much as hardcore electorate demands. PiS is in kinda peculiar position at the moment - they see the historical opportunity of forging alliance with Ukraine, and Kaczynski would like that very much to have a legacy, but it goes a bit against the nationalistic/ xenophobic narrative they were pushing up to this point.

Hopefully they will leave after next election, kicked out by people sick of economic hardships.

[Huba]

6 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Pressure from Germany alone won't do much, true. But as I said, other countries may see it as a way to get out of this while Germany is taking the blame. Overtly criticizing but quietly supporting the move.

Kaliningrad is an example where German pressure didn't work, however in the case of that turbine for NS1 it worked. And our government explicity denied breaking the sanctions this way because it was agreed on that sanctions would only make sense if they hurt Russia more than they hurt us. So there is already a precedence.

But the crucial distinction is that Canada is not bound by EU level sanctions. We shall see how it goes of course, I really hope we'll be able to weather the storm somehow without German industry going tits up. But at least on EU level, I'm afraid you are now hostages of bunch of angry EE countries - I'm willing to bet that this words exactly will be used very soon, if are not being repeated already.

Edited July 12, 2022 by Huba

[Grigb]

I remember some time ago there was a discussion whether RU is ready for confrontation with West. Well...

Quote

Deputy of the Moscow City Duma Evgeny Stupin sent a deputy request to the capital's administration, in which he asked to report whether there are bomb shelters in the capital. In an official response, he was informed that the addresses of the bomb shelters were a "state secret".

Translated into understandable language: security is not for everyone. Important ones will go to bomb shelters. The rest will survive according to luck.

Most likely, there are no bomb shelters in Moscow for a long time. Such valuable real estate could not stand idle if there was a job for it, even if it was not something they were supposed to do. For certain categories of citizens, most likely, something will be found, the rest will become sad statistics if anything happens. They have been written off now.

An interesting approach for a country that swings a nuclear club left and right and tries to inflict justice wherever it is not called.

But I would like to note something else - RU is so successful that Moscow officials started to look for bomb shelters.

[Harmon Rabb]

42 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

The "Visegrad24" account is mostly about bashing Western Europe (especially Germany) from an Eastern Europe (especially Polish, and specifically PiS/Fidesz-party) perspective.

It tries very hard to look like a reputable online news site, but it's actually an account that mostly posted pro-PiS and pro-Orban propaganda before the war.

I agree that some of the divisive language that Visegrad 24 uses is not very helpful at a time when we need unity more than ever.

Anyway I hope the story that I posted is true.

 

[Beleg85]

From things you can meet during forest hike...a Russian T-72 hunted down on narrow forest track by 25th Brigade.

So yeah, Russians are indeed adapting. Instead of tanks charging through mined roads they instead charge through forests.

1 hour ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Good news if true. The only other source for this story that I was able to find after a quick Google News search is this web page

Like others said before, VS24 is like TRUXA or Euromaidan PR- unreliable and with political bias.They now how to create "Breaking News" headlines and not much more.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1546869065020481538

A movie from training of UA paras in England.

Just heard Polish Defence Minister (who is next in long line of NATO defence ministers/senior Generals who came to Kyiv last days) said they will offer Ukrainians extra training in artillery and EOD activities.

It seems NATO this time is serious about training larger contingents of Ukrainians in its own territory. Let's hope they train them to coordinate for new offensive...

Edited July 12, 2022 by Beleg85

[A Canadian Cat]

On 7/11/2022 at 1:13 PM, Battlefront.com said:

Wouldn't it be poetic justice if China moved "peace keepers" into previously Russian territory in order to protect ethnic rights from pro-Moscow groups?  Russia has told the world that this is completely acceptable behavior, so why not?

LOL yes it certainly would be some top grade poetic justice. Sadly, I would feel bad for anyone stuck living under Chinese Communist part rule just the same as being stuck under Putin's Kleptocratic authoritarian rule.

Edited July 13, 2022 by IanL
grammar

[panzermartin]

19 minutes ago, Grigb said:

I remember some time ago there was a discussion whether RU is ready for confrontation with West. Well...

But I would like to note something else - RU is so successful that Moscow officials started to look for bomb shelters.

Not only the RU side though. The timing is mutual, maybe some suspect where this is going anyway

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/new-york-city-nuclear-attack-b2120790.html

[Huba]

"Benny Gantz, Israeli MoD approved military help to Ukraine"

If true, this is seriously scary, given in what direction affairs in the Middle East are going. We might very well be on a road to a new world war.

 

[Harmon Rabb]

43 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

I agree that some of the divisive language that Visegrad 24 uses is not very helpful at a time when we need unity more than ever.

Anyway I hope the story that I posted is true.

 

https://www.infodefensa.com/texto-diario/mostrar/3822103/defensa-da-luz-verde-donacion-10-carros-combate-leopard-2a4-20-m113-ucrania

Found another source for this story in Spanish.

When I have time I will definitely read it using Google translate.

 

Edited July 12, 2022 by Harmon Rabb

[Huba]

2 hours ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Good news if true. The only other source for this story that I was able to find after a quick Google News search is this web page.

https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2022/07/12/spain-gifts-leopard-2a4s-to-ukraine-eu-pays-for-their-upgrade/

 

So an additional thought regarding this. Assuming this actually happens and is somehow agreed within NATO (or at least some NATO countries) it's safe to say that UA will have about 0 use from 10 odd tanks, completely incompatible with the rest of their fleet. They could maybe deploy them with TD on as backup on the quiet front, but that's it.

For it to make sense, many more would have to follow, hundreds at least. The first 10 would be used for some training, as a "proof of concept" of sorts, and pave the way for other western armor the same way M777s or HIMARS were delivered. I bet that Poland would be happy to part with ours and unify our whole fleet with Abrams, if given the opportunity. That would mean 240 A4 and A5 in moderate state of repair would be available. Dunno if any other countries would be willing to do a similar swap - Swedes perhaps, for their older Strv121 that are AFAIK stored anyway, and maybe Finns?

The advantage of this deal would be it being less escalatory than straight out sending M1s. Leo is also a bit easier to sustain due to less thirsty diesel. Maintenance facilities in nearby countries are very robust too. And for US it would mean pushing out Germany as chief supplier of armor to Europe, not something to sneeze at defninitely.

This of course is a pure conjecture at this point, but quite logical IMO if we assume that the bolded part is true, and isn't just political virtue signalling by the Spaniards.

Edited July 12, 2022 by Huba