How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Grigb]

13 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Indeed I was merely jesting! Please keep the posts coming!

Well, I still treat information overload seriously. I will try to think how to present it better. 

Back to our topic. I am watching fresh Girkin video. Because it might take some time to process the whole video I am putting here Girkin preliminary assessment of UKR strikes so far.

Quote

• Around 8 Army-Corp level arty-rocket/missile warehousers were destroyed.
• A lot of Oil terminals were destroyed.
• Some (few) higher than battalion HQs were destroyed.
• Several Air defense targets were destroyed.
• UKR recon-saboteur groups are bombing/exploding bridges [looks like not much currently but it is ongoing process]
• Concluded that one sided RU game of hitting UKR rear targets has finished. 
• LDNR locals are fully aware of the scale and impact of UKR strikes - they observe resulting fire and detonations (implying the information he says is very well known by anyone there) 

[UPDATE] I got feeling that 300 km HIMARS missiles > End of War.

Edited July 10, 2022 by Grigb

[Grigb]

According to local comments RU AD is apparently having difficulties intercepting HIMARS.

Today's strike 

 

Summary - Local from Khartsyzk observed 12 missiles flying from the direction of New York to Zuhres with no attempts to intercept from RU AD. 

[paxromana]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

Politically the RU is much more vulnerable to UKR retaliatory strikes than UKR to RU initial strikes.

• UKR gov does not lie to the citizens that UKR Air Defence is impenetrable due to UKR wonder AD weapons (better than puny US Patriot/THAAD). RU gov does

'Call me Meier' ... a Goering moment.

[The_MonkeyKing]

25 minutes ago, Grigb said:

According to local comments RU AD is apparently having difficulties intercepting HIMARS.

Today's strike 

 

Summary - Local from Khartsyzk observed 12 missiles flying from the direction of New York to Zuhres with no attempts to intercept from RU AD. 

When you take in to account how hard it was for the Israelis to solve the rocket interception problem I don't think Russia can solve it no matter what.

Maybe, maybe they can protect point targets with significant resources from small salvos but that is it.

[paxromana]

Has anyone noticed the events in Sri Lanka - I wonder if Puttini has considered the implications?

How much pain will ordinary Russians bear before something similar happens?

The Rajapaksas were widely feared, obviously had their opponents 'disappeared' or beaten up, and had come to power by defeating the Tamil Tigers. But the emperors had no clothes when it came to insane economic management 'ideas' ... evidently the Russian economy is close to falling off a cliff due to (probably) insurmountable problems caused by western economic sanctions and Puttini really won't be able to make claims of being a master strategist for much longer ...

[Huba]

51 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Well, I still treat information overload seriously. I will try to think how to present it better. 

I refrain from posting some news/ stuff I'm reading not to flood the forum too much - the difference is that you produce a lot of "original" content with your translations/ summaries of various RU sources, please definitely keep it up! Some ideas/ thoughts about what you could do with it:

Are you familiar with this Dimitri guy from wartranslated.com? He started by puting some translations on Twitter, and had to start a website, as Twitter is not that supportive for longer forms. He got quite a bit of fame from that and is routinely quoted by various "twitter analysts", but also by some quite serious people. We used to post some of his stuff here (most often Girkin) but stopped cause you come up with more and better stuff that him. So some ideas from me:

- if you're after a bit of fame, start putting your content on twitter, or start a website ( runationaliststranslated.com?). If you're not  that tech savvy, some help can be easily organized  You already have all the content needed, just missing the way to expose it to wider audience, and IMO it's a waste for the world

- if you don't care about personal glory at all, how about asking this Dmitry guy to post your content? With your proven track record of delivering Grade A stuff he might be up for it

- failing that, how about some livejournal or other blogging platform

- and if your'e not interested in any of it, by God, please keep posting here!

 

 

 

Edited July 10, 2022 by Huba

[Lethaface]

@Grigb This whole thread is info overload when one's busy with 'own' life ;-), however it is interesting to be able to read perspectives which are normally not as easily accessed for non-Russian speakers (auto translate is often very limited). 

Of course everything can always be improved. I liked the headers with bulletpoints structure.

[Haiduk]

Alchevsk, Luhansk oblast, next ammo dump, deployed on the territory of abandoned brewery

Edited July 10, 2022 by Haiduk

[Huba]

And more cute silliness: 

Edited July 10, 2022 by Huba

[Grigb]

Regarding RU replenishing manpower losses/mobilization potential (sorry if it was posted already)

 

It is Tiger battalion to support 155 marine brigade (Far East). 

[Haiduk]

 Russian armor trying to avoid of artillery strike from UKR 93rd mech.brigade and drove to ravine. The driver of one tank probably made a mistake and the vehicle overturned

... But artillery reached them anyway. Funny that the honor name of 93rd brigade is "Kholodnyi Yar" (literally "Cold Ravine"), so Russian tankers in this ravine became really cold %)

 

Edited July 10, 2022 by Haiduk

[Huba]

Rosgvardia barracks hit in Kherson, a lot of info incoming now:

Some videos:

 

Edited July 10, 2022 by Huba

[Haiduk]

Despite there are no videos of TLGM usage, but here at least captured box with two Russian tandem 9M119M "Invar" (AT-11 Sniper) of "Reflex" TLGM compex for T-80U and T-90 family.

Recently in March or April I've seen captured TLGMs 9M119 of Svir' TLGM complex for T-72B 

 

Edited July 10, 2022 by Haiduk

[Offshoot]

29 minutes ago, Huba said:

Rosgvardia barracks hit in Kherson, a lot of info incoming now

 

This must be the same one with location

 

[Huba]

2 minutes ago, Offshoot said:

This must be the same one with location

Yup. I'm under the impression that back and forth is over and ZSU is about to seriously push on the city. Orcs are quite unnerved:

 

[Grigb]

Girkin published an update regarding HIMARS work

• HIMARS continue to strike RU
• RU AD could relatively cope with Tochka and Uragan strikes but it is infective against HIMARS massive strikes

The following targets were hit in RU near and deep rear areas over the past 5-7 days:

•  More than 10 large ammo warehouses [by context - brigade and above]
•  Several oil depots
• Around 10 HQs
• Around 10 temporary barracks
• Several AD and artillery positions
• RU suffered heavy human and material losses

Quote

The enemy continues to launch missile strikes in the Donbas.
Apparently, the Russian air defense systems, which relatively (very relatively) coped with attacks with the help of "Tochka-U" and "Uragan", turned out to be ineffective against massive strikes by HIMARS missiles. Shakhtersk is burning and detonating again today. Stronger than last time.

Over the past 5-7 days, more than 10 large warehouses of artillery and other ammunition, several oil depots, about a dozen command posts and about the same number of personnel locations [temporary barracks] in our near and deep rear were hit. As well as several air defense positions and artillery positions. HEAVY losses were incurred in personnel and equipment.

[Girkin is really upset. HIMARS started to get under RU skin]

[Taranis]

15 minutes ago, Huba said:

Yup. I'm under the impression that back and forth is over and ZSU is about to seriously push on the city. Orcs are quite unnerved:

 

To put in parallel I think of these previous comments without wanting to be overoptimistic  (source Le Monde, on 9th july)
"Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister asks people to evacuate Kherson and Zaporizhia as soon as possible
Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk on Friday called on residents of areas occupied by the Russian army in the regions of Kherson, in the south of the country, and Zaporizhia, in the center-east, to leave as soon as possible in anticipation of fierce fighting.

“I urge you to evacuate as soon as possible, by all means. Do not wait, ”she warned on Ukrainian television. She warned residents that they could be used as human shields by the Russians.

“There will be huge battles,” she said, adding that the Ukrainian army was seeking to liberate these regions.

[panzermartin]

Will facilities like underground parking lots in malls etc be enough to stop arty and MLRS from hitting storage. I doubt there are so many and large enough in eastern Ukraine though... 

[Taranis]

15 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Will facilities like underground parking lots in malls etc be enough to stop arty and MLRS from hitting storage. I doubt there are so many and large enough in eastern Ukraine though... 

If the parking lot is not too deep, it suffices to fire shells with a timed fuze, i.e. they do not explode on impact but a few seconds after hitting the ground and allowing time to explode deeper. There is also the risk of the parking lot collapsing onto the ammunition. And then imagine, the result if for one reason or another it explodes... It's going to make a hell of a crater... Explosion in a confined space never gives good things

Do you remember the bunker buster or the ammunition to destroy the Taliban buried in the mountains?

On top of that, UKR knowing positions of parking lots etc (including in russia, thanks google map) would make warehouses really predictable. (all of this is only my humble opinion of course)

Edited July 10, 2022 by Taranis

[womble]

14 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Will facilities like underground parking lots in malls etc be enough to stop arty and MLRS from hitting storage. I doubt there are so many and large enough in eastern Ukraine though... 

Aye, underground is expensive to build and usually only economically viable where there's a lot of pressure on land prices. I would guess that Ukraine doesn't suffer too badly from such pressures, in a country the size of France with 2/3 its population, so underground parking will be rare, and mostly small where present.

[Huba]

Just now, Taranis said:

If the parking lot is not too deep, it suffices to fire shells with a timed fuze, i.e. they do not explode on impact but a few seconds after hitting the ground and allowing time to explode deeper. There is also the risk of the parking lot collapsing onto the ammunition. And then imagine, the result if for one reason or another it explodes... It's going to make a hell of a crater... Explosion in a confined space never gives good things

To add to that, in case of most shopping malls, it is basically a sheet metal roof which offers no protection whatsoever, and then the concrete roof of the garage. Facing M31 rocket that weighs in excess of 100kg, travels at supersonic speed and in most of it's range envelope will strike the target completely vertically, those garages give nothing. 

Having said that, against a usual MLRS fire, with either Grads or cluster munitions, the protection offered should be reasonable, and up to this point those might've been deemed safe enough. Well, not anymore...

 

[The_Capt]

19 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Will facilities like underground parking lots in malls etc be enough to stop arty and MLRS from hitting storage. I doubt there are so many and large enough in eastern Ukraine though... 

I would say that if the Russians are forced to employ existing underground parking lots as the backbone of their logistics plan, the UA is already winning.  If we start seeing this it is a clear indicator that the deep strike campaign is working.

[akd]

22 hours ago, akd said:

Major Tarkhan Khordaev, commander 3rd Tank Battalion, 80th Tank Regiment, 90th Guards Tank Division:

This says he was battalion chief of staff:

 

[panzermartin]

2 minutes ago, womble said:

Aye, underground is expensive to build and usually only economically viable where there's a lot of pressure on land prices. I would guess that Ukraine doesn't suffer too badly from such pressures, in a country the size of France with 2/3 its population, so underground parking will be rare, and mostly small where present.

Good points. 

 

11 minutes ago, Taranis said:

If the parking lot is not too deep, it suffices to fire shells with a timed fuze, i.e. they do not explode on impact but a few seconds after hitting the ground and allowing time to explode deeper. There is also the risk of the parking lot collapsing onto the ammunition. And then imagine, the result if for one reason or another it explodes... It's going to make a hell of a crater... Explosion in a confined space never gives good things

Do you remember the bunker buster or the ammunition to destroy the Taliban buried in the mountains?

On top of that, UKR knowing positions of parking lots etc (including in russia, thanks google map) would make warehouses really predictable. (all of this is only my humble opinion of course)

Yes, it makes perfect sense thanks for the insight. I was wondering whether the HIMARS has a penetrating mod, in my mind most MRLS are "soft" explosives. And I rembered the theater in Mariupol that people hidden in the lower basement survived a direct hit from aircraft strike iirc. 

[Huba]

1 minute ago, panzermartin said:

Good points. 

 

Yes, it makes perfect sense thanks for the insight. I was wondering whether the HIMARS has a penetrating mod, in my mind most MRLS are "soft" explosives. And I rembered the theater in Mariupol that people hidden in the lower basement survived a direct hit from aircraft strike iirc. 

To quote Globalsecurity, about the M31 Unitary round:

Quote

Affectionately referred to as the "70km sniper round", the GMLRS Unitary has a 200lb High Explosive (HE) warhead for attacking point targets with reduced collateral damage by providing a "one round, one kill capability". GMLRS unitary is the Army's only surface-fired, precision, longer-range indirect fire munition available to troops in contact in an urban environment. GMLRS is a precision munition providing increased range to 70KM, and Global Positioning System (GPS) accuracy. GMLRS unitary has three fuze settings for use against personnel in the open (proximity fuze); lightly fortified bunkers (delayed fuze); or a single, lightly armored target (point detonating fuze). The new Tri-mode fuze allows airburst, point impact and delay modes for penetrator capability. Proximity sensor firing mode is selectable for 3 Meter & 10 Meter height of burst [HOB] at approach velocities near Mach 2.5.

It won't be effective against purpose-build bomb shelters or other reinforced structures. Those are really quite numerous in older buildings from Warsaw Pact times. But what's to keep in mind is that modern shopping malls in particular are commercial buildings, built to the lowest standard allowed by law, to keep the costs in check. In Poland there was some discussion recently about changing the legal requirements to make this type of structures dual purpose. The ones built up to this point are not up to the task, not by a long shot.