How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Calamine Waffles]

You're using the US KIA to casualty ratio calculation which assumes a level of triage, CASEVAC, and medical care that I frankly doubt exists in the Russian Army or its proxies. I don't think it is an accurate estimate for total casualties.

Russia mobilized nearly 300,000 soldiers before the war, and with the ongoing covert mobilization, who knows how many they actually have in Ukraine?

26 minutes ago, kraze said:

And there are 140 mln russians, ready to die for the Emperor. Besides ideology - toilets won't just deliver themselves to Russia.

Russia has been running very real, albeit covert mobilization, for months. Also pulling standing troops from as far as Vladivostok just this month.

Their casualties are huge, but unlike western society - russian culture has zero value for human life. They don't really care how many die, just that they can be proud of some achievement in conquest.

Anyway, the point is that 15k is almost certainly wrong, and 7k is complete bull pulled out of Kofman's arse.

Edited June 20, 2022 by Calamine Waffles

[Beleg85]

23 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

About Russian fleet along the western shore. It could be did for air defense purposes. Reportedly, after UKR hit the rigs, locals in Crimea concerned that UKR forces will strike on Crimea too, so Aksionov hastened to calm them dowm that Crimea has strong AD.  

So, maybe Russian command considered new opportunity of UKR forces as serious threat and move the ships to shield additionally to the ground AD assets western direction and intercept possible missiles on military objecst in Crimea

You mean missiles? Do Ukrainians have anything that could reach Sevastopol, after new deliveries from NATO.Anyway I hopd this oil rig was honeytrap from Ukrainian side to lure BS fleet out.

13 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

Russia mobilized nearly 300,000 soldiers before the war, and with the ongoing covert mobilization, who knows how many they actually have in Ukraine?

Russian general stated just 2 days ago they had deployed 330 k thus far, not sure if Donbabwe and Luganda included.

 

Edited June 20, 2022 by Beleg85

[Vanir Ausf B]

13 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

You're using the US KIA to casualty ratio calculation which assumes a level of triage, CASEVAC, and medical care that I frankly doubt exists in the Russian Army or its proxies. I don't think it is an accurate estimate for total casualties.

Well then what is? LOL You have to use some multiplier.

Obviously no one knows the real numbers, but if you use multipliers much larger than 3.5x you quickly get into astronomical body counts.

13 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

Russia mobilized nearly 300,000 soldiers before the war, and with the ongoing covert mobilization, who knows how many they actually have in Ukraine?

Russia didn't mobilize anyone before the war. They went in on Feb 24th at peacetime strength.

Here, this has been posted before IIRC, but this is Kofman's analyses. It may not be correct but I would bet it's a lot closer to correct than Karl from Estonia's

Note these are from a month ago so are outdated, but I think the methodology is sound.

• So how can we figure what might be plausible Russian KIA and total casualties? First, its hard to go off of oblique official estimates and selective intel releases. Things won't add up. No good way to know what is being counted or how. Also, it can change over time.
• For example, it appears at some point US official BTG counts started to include the DNR/LNR units whereas before it seemed they did not. So the initial BTG counts of 125-130 may not have included the 'separatist' corps or Rosgvardia.
• Also, these estimates are done in ranges and with confidence levels. Governments typically release these figures without explaining the estimate range, or their confidence level in those figures. So you might be hearing a conservative or a high estimate.
• Combatants in war will often overstate opponent losses and understate their own, or not release those figures at all. This is to be expected. The numbers are intertwined with information operations, considerations of own troop morale, external support, etc.
• The first problem is figuring out Russia's initial force. As we've come to learn the average BTG size was probably not 800, or 750, but probably closer to 600. Not all units deployed as BTGs, but the main maneuver force was possibly 80-90k.
• Auxiliaries such as 'separatist' army corps, and Rosgvardia might be another 20-25k. And an unknown amount of non-BTG dedicated support units. These are difficult to estimate, but they would not dramatically inflate the force involved.
• Making a third of BTG formations combat ineffective (50% casualties) could require just 3.3k KIA. Indeed, 10k KIA could easily add up to 45k total casualties or more. 15k KIA would take it towards 75k. I'm using just 3.5 as a multiplier here (imagine applying x5.7).
• The problem with higher range KIA counts is that you quickly develop input/output problems. There are more casualties than could feasibly be involved in the fight. That is, certain numbers become implausible given the size of forces involved.
• What about Russian reinforcements? Well, assuming 10-15 BTGs additional from the rest of the force, and other sources like mercenaries, you might be looking at another 10-12k troops in the war during the second phase. It does not dramatically alter the picture.
• Alternatively, one could assume 150k forces massed on UKR borders on Feb 23rd (not 190k total op related force). Here I'm doing what I advised against, using opaque official figures, but I know it is tempting. 1/3 of that figure, as total casualties, could come from ~12k KIA.
• This is all circling around a target. Given the gaps, my own confidence is quite low, but I think some of the figures out there don't reconcile well. Based on what I suspect, but ultimately don't know, I think 7k is low, 15k is high, and 10-12k KIA might be the middle.
• To me this is a high casualty figure both relative to the potential size of the force involved, and Russian casualties in other wars. However, others might have a different take on this.

Edited June 20, 2022 by Vanir Ausf B

[sburke]

4 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

Well then what is? LOL You have to use some number.

Obviously no one knows the real numbers, but if you use multipliers much larger than 3.5x you quickly get into astronomical body counts.

I think he was going the opposite direction.  Instead maybe 2-2.5 WIA per KIA as the death rate is higher proportionally.  I asked a similar question in that vein earlier as we had a hospital report on casevac and the number who had died amongst those actually evac'd.  To that number we'd have to add those who died in the field.  Sum of all that.. we have no idea.  

Edited June 20, 2022 by sburke

[Grigb]

53 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

Well in that case I would like to see Karl from Estonia's estimate and how he came up with it.

Kofman is quite explicit that he has low confidence in that number, that it could have been as low as 7,000 or as high as 15,000. But that is beside the point, which is that it can't be anywhere near 40,000. If it were the UA would be half way to Moscow by now.

As i understood 40,000 comes from intercept. If it is true then most likely it includes all types of unaccounted boiz. Most likely an officer lost his nerves and started shouting over his phone that there could be as much as 40k killed. I do not believe RU generals really know where are all their boiz.   

[Calamine Waffles]

10 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

Well then what is? LOL You have to use some multiplier.

Obviously no one knows the real numbers, but if you use multipliers much larger than 3.5x you quickly get into astronomical body counts.

You use a lower multiplier. KIA to WIA ratio is going to be higher for an army operating with 1970/80s first aid and medical evacuation.

 

Quote

Russia didn't mobilize anyone before the war. They went in on Feb 24th at peacetime strength.

Here, this has been posted before IIRC, but this is Kofman's analyses. It may not be correct but I would bet it's a lot closer to correct than Karl from Estonia's

Let's just agree to disagree on that.

Quote

Note these are from a month ago so are outdated, but I think the methodology is sound.

• So how can we figure what might be plausible Russian KIA and total casualties? First, its hard to go off of oblique official estimates and selective intel releases. Things won't add up. No good way to know what is being counted or how. Also, it can change over time.
• For example, it appears at some point US official BTG counts started to include the DNR/LNR units whereas before it seemed they did not. So the initial BTG counts of 125-130 may not have included the 'separatist' corps or Rosgvardia.
• Also, these estimates are done in ranges and with confidence levels. Governments typically release these figures without explaining the estimate range, or their confidence level in those figures. So you might be hearing a conservative or a high estimate.
• Combatants in war will often overstate opponent losses and understate their own, or not release those figures at all. This is to be expected. The numbers are intertwined with information operations, considerations of own troop morale, external support, etc.
• The first problem is figuring out Russia's initial force. As we've come to learn the average BTG size was probably not 800, or 750, but probably closer to 600. Not all units deployed as BTGs, but the main maneuver force was possibly 80-90k.
• Auxiliaries such as 'separatist' army corps, and Rosgvardia might be another 20-25k. And an unknown amount of non-BTG dedicated support units. These are difficult to estimate, but they would not dramatically inflate the force involved.
• Making a third of BTG formations combat ineffective (50% casualties) could require just 3.3k KIA. Indeed, 10k KIA could easily add up to 45k total casualties or more. 15k KIA would take it towards 75k. I'm using just 3.5 as a multiplier here (imagine applying x5.7).
• The problem with higher range KIA counts is that you quickly develop input/output problems. There are more casualties than could feasibly be involved in the fight. That is, certain numbers become implausible given the size of forces involved.
• What about Russian reinforcements? Well, assuming 10-15 BTGs additional from the rest of the force, and other sources like mercenaries, you might be looking at another 10-12k troops in the war during the second phase. It does not dramatically alter the picture.
• Alternatively, one could assume 150k forces massed on UKR borders on Feb 23rd (not 190k total op related force). Here I'm doing what I advised against, using opaque official figures, but I know it is tempting. 1/3 of that figure, as total casualties, could come from ~12k KIA.
• This is all circling around a target. Given the gaps, my own confidence is quite low, but I think some of the figures out there don't reconcile well. Based on what I suspect, but ultimately don't know, I think 7k is low, 15k is high, and 10-12k KIA might be the middle.
• To me this is a high casualty figure both relative to the potential size of the force involved, and Russian casualties in other wars. However, others might have a different take on this.

Again, he's using that flawed multiplier here based on US military statistics. Again, 15k is virtually impossible given we know Ukraine has 7-8,000 dead Russians in cold storage in April. Ukraine cannot possibly be recovering half of every Russian killed in the war, especially since many of those dead will be on territory occupied by Russia as well, and some will have been vapourised when their T-72/BMP exploded. We know that for the entirety of this war  Russia has been having so many logistic problems, why would anyone think they're even at US WWII levels of ability in evacuating and patching up wounded?

Edited June 20, 2022 by Calamine Waffles

[SeinfeldRules]

I mean considering the first half of this war was characterized by abandoned and destroyed convoys and a mass withdrawal of Russian forces I have no problem believing a large portion of their KIA ended up in Ukrainian hands. This isn't GWOT, not every body is going to come home. Besides, doesn't that match up with the supposed "disregard" Russia has for the lives of their citizens that we keep hearing about in this thread?

Edited June 20, 2022 by SeinfeldRules

[Vanir Ausf B]

10 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

You use a lower multiplier. KIA to WIA ratio is going to be higher for an army operating with 1970/80s first aid and medical evacuation.

Let's just agree to disagree on that.

Again, he's using that flawed multiplier here based on US military statistics. Again, 15k is virtually impossible given we know Ukraine has 7-8,000 dead Russians in cold storage in April. Ukraine cannot possibly be recovering half of every Russian killed in the war, especially since many of those dead will be on territory occupied by Russia as well, and some will have been vapourised when their T-72/BMP exploded.

Ok, fair enough on the multiplier. But even 2x gets you 120,000 total casualties. That is an impossible number. No way could Russia be holding a front that long with those loses.

But yes, we will have to agree to disagree since no one knows the real numbers.

Edited June 20, 2022 by Vanir Ausf B

[Calamine Waffles]

I'm not saying 42k is correct, but 15k KIA is just too low. I'd guess it's at least 20-25k by now, minimum.

Edited June 20, 2022 by Calamine Waffles

[Harmon Rabb]

3 hours ago, dan/california said:

 

Not too late to start selling Ukraine cruise missiles for a dollar each as they cross the Polish border. 

 

2 hours ago, sburke said:

yeah just one more reason to divorce ourselves from Russia as much as possible.  Pariah state

At this point I think lawmakers in Washington need to seriously consider placing Putin's regime on the lists of State Sponsors of Terrorism.

 

[Calamine Waffles]

17 minutes ago, SeinfeldRules said:

I mean considering the first half of this war was characterized by abandoned and destroyed convoys and a mass withdrawal of Russian forces I have no problem believing a large portion of their KIA ended up in Ukrainian hands. This isn't GWOT, not every body is going to come home. Besides, doesn't that match up with the supposed "disregard" Russia has for the lives of their citizens that we keep hearing about in this thread?

That 8,000 dead bodies number is from the first week of April, so presumably the vast majority of these would have been recovered from the withdrawal from Kyiv at the end of March. Russia attacked Kyiv with an estimated 15-30,000 troops. Do you believe Russia lost 1/2 to 1/3rd of those KIA?

[Vanir Ausf B]

Oh BTW, I was able to dig up the source for Kofman's 3.5 multiplier. Turns out it was not based on Western numbers.

 

[Beleg85]

Interesting thread from Alperovitch about long-term Putin war plan, rather summary than something new. I am not sure if I'd agree with him but he has many good points. According to him Putin wants to keep this pace till winter in hope west will throw the gauntlet first.

[Calamine Waffles]

Just now, Vanir Ausf B said:

Oh BTW, I was able to dig up the source for Kofman's 3.5 multiplier. Turns out it was not based on Western numbers.

 

Yeah, but those are tank units. I think their WIA to KIA ratio is going to be higher than the average.

 

[Vanir Ausf B]

4 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

Yeah, but those are tank units. I think their WIA to KIA ratio is going to be higher than the average.

Not sure what that is based on. The Russian Army in general is heavily mechanized. But in any event, the interesting takeaway is that the 3.5 multiplier is just for WIA. It doesn't include MIA or POWs, both of which may be very significant in their own right.

[sburke]

13 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

 

Interesting thread from Alperovitch about long-term Putin war plan, rather summary than something new. I am not sure if I'd agree with him but he has many good points. According to him Putin wants to keep this pace till winter in hope west will throw the gauntlet first.

I can't believe anyone thinks after the fiasco of the past 120 days that Putin has a "long term" any plan.  Trashing your army and letting your economy sink into the pit isn't a plan for anything except someone deciding to vacate your skull.  Another 180 days of rolling t62s out of storage and watching all your precision weapons stocks, UAVs etc get increasingly scarce as Ukraine is rearming with NATO weapons...        This isn't a plan.  it maybe a hope, but only because it is his only option.

[Vanir Ausf B]

I now have a new podcast to listen to.

Edited June 20, 2022 by Vanir Ausf B

[Beleg85]

13 minutes ago, sburke said:

I can't believe anyone thinks after the fiasco of the past 120 days that Putin has a "long term" any plan.  Trashing your army and letting your economy sink into the pit isn't a plan for anything except someone deciding to vacate your skull.  Another 180 days of rolling t62s out of storage and watching all your precision weapons stocks, UAVs etc get increasingly scarce as Ukraine is rearming with NATO weapons...        This isn't a plan.  it maybe a hope, but only because it is his only option.

Zombifier in Chief Margareta Simonian told yesterday she spoke with the Boss directly and that he has a Plan that cannot disclose beside the fact it contains hidden Red Lines...

No kidding, she really said that in her program:

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1538883644999315460

 

Edited June 20, 2022 by Beleg85

[dan/california]

22 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Zombifier in Chief Margareta Simonian told yesterday she spoke with the Boss directly and that he has a Plan that cannot disclose beside the fact it contains hidden Red Lines...

No kidding, she really said that in her program:

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1538883644999315460

 

She also says the moon is made of cheese, and Russian tanks are on the outskirts of Paris.

[Fenris]

This is the first I've seen on the topic of Syrians since the call to arms back in what was it?  March?

 

[Fenris]

Doco from Butusov on running supplies to defenders in Mariupol by helicopter (with English subs)

 

[Calamine Waffles]

16 minutes ago, dan/california said:

She also says the moon is made of cheese, and Russian tanks are on the outskirts of Paris.

"I have a truly wonderful plan for Ukraine which this margin is too small to contain." — Vladimir Vladimorovich Putin, (probably).

[Huba]

A little "case study" of RU army corruption and contacts with criminal world. I remember Poland in the '90s a bit, but it didn't even come close, the story is truly shocking:

 

[sburke]

44 minutes ago, dan/california said:

She also says the moon is made of cheese, and Russian tanks are on the outskirts of Paris.

welll.. it is!

 

[Artkin]

I really hope there wont be a CMBS2 but rather extensive, quality modules for CMBS. Hoping to see T-80BVM, T-80U/UK/UE-1, and T-72B3M. 

Edited June 21, 2022 by Artkin