How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Grigb]

3 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

You are awesome, brother!  Very glad you have joined our conversation.

Thank you. I may be a pain to deal with sometimes - too many scars of brutal take-no-prisoners armchair fights on the Eastern Internet Front.  But I am really trying to adjust and become a better person. 

[DesertFox]

1 minute ago, Huba said:

Old Mig-29s wont cut it against VVS aircraft with R-77. 

Better than nothing I´d say. I guess UA is not in the position to make a whish.

[LongLeftFlank]

Just now, Grigb said:

Thank you. I may be a pain to deal with sometimes - too many scars of brutal take-no-prisoners armchair fights on the Eastern Internet Front.  But I am really trying to adjust and become a better person. 

Nah, that's ok. We're a luverly bunch of coconuts here, with thick scaly hides.

[YouWillOwnNothing]

25 minutes ago, Huba said:

I wonder though if MANPADS based systems are enough?

Hate and hybris often makes people blind to reality.

How about some realism?

 

[LongLeftFlank]

8 minutes ago, YouWillOwnNothing said:

Hate and hybris often makes people blind to reality.

How about some realism?

 

3-5 short bullets, please, on why I should spend my time watching this? Who is this guy?

Because sorry, your reco carries very little weight at this time.

[Offshoot]

Is this the same Alexander Mercouris who was disbarred by the Bar Standards Board in 2012? If so, he sounds like someone you can really trust for some "realism" - https://www.barstandardsboard.org.uk/disciplinary_finding/76984.html

Edit: I should have noted that in another Youtube video he is described as "a former London lawyer".

Edited June 17, 2022 by Offshoot

[Haiduk]

UKR 152 mm artillery from Pisky area struck some targets in Donetsk. Reportedly hit the building of former Ukrainian emergency service unit (there is DPR military unit now there as weel as emergency), enlistment office and hotel "Dominik", where Russian officers usually live

Emergency service building area

.. And other two places of hits

 

Also the third strke on Nova Kakhovka, Kherson oblast. Locals say furniture factory was hit again, where Russians deployed own vehicles repairing unit.

 

From Russian side, reportedly, in this morning more than dozen ballistic missiles were launced from Alchevsk town area in Luhansk oblast

Two cruise missiles hit something in Mykolaiv this morning

 

Edited June 17, 2022 by Haiduk

[Grigb]

Interesting comment regarding General Kutuzov (Tuman) death.

It seems Donbass field commanders like to lie to high command about the amount of infantry they have. [No surprise High command insists on continuing assaults] So, the high command started to request photo and video of attacking infantry right before an attack. Field commanders responded with fake photos putting non infantry troops together to look like full battalion. And after like 20-30 guys are off to attack. Tuman and other commander were send to investigate what is really going on. As soon as he arrived and got out UKR hit the column with Grads. 

I am frankly impressed with the field guys. They always find a way to bull**** superiors. Would not be surprised if they totally accidentally disclosed over unencrypted radios that big guy is coming.

@Haiduk did your guys tried to buy arty ammo from them with dollars or something?

[Haiduk]

3 minutes ago, Grigb said:

@Haiduk did your guys tried to buy arty ammo from them with dollars or something?

Oppose side during 2014/15 several times claimed in propaganda purposes that UKR soldiers sell ammunition for LDPR %)

[LongLeftFlank]

While we're posting rando comedy, here's a nice analogy for the Russian attack strategy in the Donbas....

 

[DesertFox]

As expected from yesterdays visit by ROM, FR, DE and IT.

 

 

Edited June 17, 2022 by DesertFox

[Beleg85]

8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

To give us an idea of Russian losses thus far, we have 87,000 replacements.  It is unlikely that these were swapped in 1:1 for casualties.  Some would be filling the shows of Refusniks, cancelled contracts, and even desertions.  Yet we also are pretty sure that Russia hasn't increased it's overall ground force strength above what it started with, and in fact the evidence suggests lower than the start.  Therefore, I think it is fairly conservative estimate is that Russia has lost the equivalent of 87,000 soldiers as casualties or administrative losses.

What percentage of its total ground force has Russia lost since the war started?  Let's be generous and say 15%, which is about 9,000 KIA and 26,000 WIA.

Add to this losses from DLPR, which by all accounts are horrendous.  If we assume even 75,000 as their total manpower commitment, 20% casualties is equivalent to 3,700 KIA and another 11,000 WIA.

We also know that Rosguardia has suffered significant casualties and surely so has the PMCs.  Figure 10% for them and we get another 450 KIA and 1,300 WIA.  Add in another 300 KIA and 200 WIA for Naval and Airforces (bunch of pilots and Muskova crew, mostly).

Add the conservative numbers up we get Russia's total casualties, including proxy fighters, of roughly 13,500 KIA and 38,500 WIA, for a total of 52,000 total casualties.  That's about 13% losses for all Russian and proxy forces and close to the 15% guess I made back on Page 899.

That seems a reasonable and conservative accounting.

Steve

Joined LDPR losses are almost certainly higher. I come back to this statistic from DPR ombudsman again, but it is only reliable, fresh and roughly accurate estimate so far of losses on any side. DPR lost at least 10k (preciselly 2057 KIA and 8526 WIA, as for end of May report), mainly at Mariupol. LPR losses, given Popasna slaughter and Severdoneck, are probably similar magnitude, which is supported by many translated calls of massive casualties. So we can give them solidly together very conservative 20 thousand already.

It sucks to be male in Donbas, really.

Also Rosgvardia in their light cars was often massacred at the start of the war. And PMC's of various kinds, judging by how frequently they appear in report and videos, also suffeed perhaps even worse than 10%.

So if your predictions as to the rest are correct, there could be even 60-65 k casualties total on RU side.

Edited June 17, 2022 by Beleg85

[Huba]

44 minutes ago, YouWillOwnNothing said:

Hate and hybris often makes people blind to reality.

How about some realism?

 

Thanks, I'm fine in my NATO bubble, but you feel free to indulge. 

[Calamine Waffles]

2 hours ago, Grigb said:

Author:

 

— Nuances in use? Ammunition? Was the ammo put only in mechanized laying [autoloader]? Typical composition of ammo (proportion: HE, HEAT, APFSDS)? Or were they filled in for a specific task? What type of ammunition was used most often? Is the main APFSDS still 3B42?

Tankman:

...

There was nothing but Mango at the beginning of the operation, ammunition was spent so quickly that it was not possible to replenish it. As for the "long arm", I will answer as concisely as I can.

Oh, that's great then. Nizh ERA has been proven to be able to defeat 3BM42 Mango. So, the Bulats etc. are reasonably well protected.

http://btvt.info/3attackdefensemobility/bulat_dz/img026.jpg

http://btvt.info/3attackdefensemobility/bulat_dz/img010.jpg

[Haiduk]

14 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

So, the Bulats etc. are reasonably well protected.

T-64BV mod.2017 also equipped with Nizh ERA, but packed in Kontakt-1 boxes

[hcrof]

58 minutes ago, YouWillOwnNothing said:

Hate and hybris often makes people blind to reality.

How about some realism?

 

That is a very selective reading of the facts to justify his obvious position that Ukraine should just accept anything Russia imposes on them and the west should say sorry to Russia for opposing their unprovoked invasion.

I think it is clear to all that Ukraine is taking ruinous casualties and economic damage, but Russia is hurting bad too or they wouldn't be using t-62s and 1960s era "precision missiles". 

If Ukraine still wants to fight we should give them what they need. The russian state is a menace and crippling it is very much in the west's best interest. 

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, Offshoot said:

Is this the same Alexander Mercouris who was disbarred by the Bar Standards Board in 2012? If so, he sounds like someone you can really trust for some "realism" - https://www.barstandardsboard.org.uk/disciplinary_finding/76984.html

Edit: I should have noted that in another Youtube video he is described as "a former London lawyer".

He is seemingly another self-made "lone wolf" commentator with personal problems.

But hey, we live in an era when such names as J.Mearsheimer or D.Trenin are disgracing themselves publically being unable to see what Russia really is. A lot of authorities will be shattered during this conflict...

 

[poesel]

3 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

The Netherlands has Gepards (100 vehicles) in storage, if I'm correct. If they are available, they should be send.

Also non-Swiss ammo? Because that is lacking.

[Haiduk]

British Mastiff and German MG3 in UKR marines service

Edited June 17, 2022 by Haiduk

[Aragorn2002]

11 minutes ago, poesel said:

Also non-Swiss ammo? Because that is lacking.

"According to German Business Insider, Brazil “is ready to provide Ukraine with 300,000 shells for the Gepard." 

https://www.defenceprocurementinternational.com/features/land/why-is-switzerland-blocking-the-re-export-of-ammunition-for-the-gepard

"The Gepard is still a formidable anti-aircraft weapon that is intentionally being underplayed by the Germans with an eye to Russia and its President Vladimir Putin."

Edited June 17, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[DesertFox]

2 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

According to German Business Insider, Brazil “is ready to provide Ukraine with 300,000 shells for the Gepard." 

https://www.defenceprocurementinternational.com/features/land/why-is-switzerland-blocking-the-re-export-of-ammunition-for-the-gepard

Good to know!

[Aragorn2002]

9 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Good to know!

I hope this information is (still) correct. A couple of hundred Gepards will have quite some impact. 

I must say I never understood Swiss obsession with neutrality, but knowing the Swiss it probably comes down to money.

Edited June 17, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[FancyCat]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

Interesting comment regarding General Kutuzov (Tuman) death.

It seems Donbass field commanders like to lie to high command about the amount of infantry they have. [No surprise High command insists on continuing assaults] So, the high command started to request photo and video of attacking infantry right before an attack. Field commanders responded with fake photos putting non infantry troops together to look like full battalion. And after like 20-30 guys are off to attack. Tuman and other commander were send to investigate what is really going on. As soon as he arrived and got out UKR hit the column with Grads. 

I am frankly impressed with the field guys. They always find a way to bull**** superiors. Would not be surprised if they totally accidentally disclosed over unencrypted radios that big guy is coming.

@Haiduk did your guys tried to buy arty ammo from them with dollars or something?

The ability of Russian officers to keep being corrupt and evasive is quite admirable. I wonder if the lies started pre-war, and in order to avoid being persecuted, they must continue the lies on the field?

We must be careful about Ukrainian numbers. I saw someone tweet that some of the spouted wounded/Kia numbers didn't make sense. Ukraine has a balancing act to walk, early-war, they needed to demonstrate the ability to survive and wage successful attacks on Russia, now they need to emphasize without further Western aid, they risk causing prolonged conflict, and part of emphasizing the need is illustrating significant damage to Ukrainian forces. Not to say that Ukraine isn't suffering heavily in numbers but independent verification is hard and Ukraine has goals that may prioritize a small fib over the truth.

Now I've been saying that it is essential the liberation of Kherson be undertaken as the first objective. Anyone have counters to pursuing that? I know diluting the pincers across the sailent in Donbas is essential, but I think the movement of Caesar artillery here rather than Donbas indicates Ukraine wants Kherson sooner than later.

Politically, they need to counter Russian narrative that they are pushing successfully or that stalemate is possible, the loss of Kherson oblast would be a deathblow for that narrative.

[DesertFox]

Just now, Aragorn2002 said:

I hope this information is (still) correct.

Well has to be. According to german MoD ukrainian crews are in training with Gepard and tanks and crews are to be back expected in Ukraine end of Juli(ish).

Ukraine erhält im Juli erste Gepard-Panzer aus Deutschland - DER SPIEGEL

[Aragorn2002]

14 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Well has to be. According to german MoD ukrainian crews are in training with Gepard and tanks and crews are to be back expected in Ukraine end of Juli(ish).

Ukraine erhält im Juli erste Gepard-Panzer aus Deutschland - DER SPIEGEL

I'm pretty sure the dutch military is also involved in this project. Netherlands is keeping a low profile when it comes to arms deliveries to Ukraine, but it wouldn't surprise me if dutch Gepards will also find their way to Ukraine. Until that time, better no ambitious Ukrainian counterattacks. 

 

Edited June 17, 2022 by Aragorn2002